Covid Origins: Lab leak hypothesis

[tantalus]

That does not make sense if its established you can't catch anything directly from bats.

High or low viral load makes no difference.

Nobody seems to be able to explain how those miners got sick and 3 out of 6 died as a result.

I'm sure miners get sick for all sorts of reasons given their working conditions but this case seems to have got peoples attention.

The person who found this case was from Pune of the drastic team. She's given interviews to local tv stations.


Only for hygiene then.


This is the thing. Our understanding of coronaviruses requires an intermediate host to then jump on to infect humans.

It's not been shown that this virus directly jumped to humans yet.


This does not hold if we've established the wet market played no role.

In principle you can get infected directly from bats. But bat viruses can also pass through an intermediate host to humans. Sarc cov 2, the original early 2020 version, doesnt infect bat cells efficiently, suggesting an intermediate role.

[Officer of Engineers]

This implies a direct infection. No evidence of that exists yet.

Bubonic plaque and ticks.

Until the natural theory can produce evidence worth a damn alternative ideas will develop.

Conspiracy theories will come out no matter what. First rule of intel. Ignore the first reports. They're usually wrong and by over-excited observers desperate to say something. In this case, this screams of DART and obvious why a General is put in charge. It does NOT scream bio weapon.

The lay person sees the global spread as very efficient and this is why they think its a bioweapon because it gets to so many.

So the lay person is wrong.

[Double Edge]

Bubonic plaque and ticks.

It can happen but this is not the case with the present pandemic.

And even if it is remember that serological record. It leaves an audit trail. You see a few cases then more and still more over a period of time. This could be weeks to months.

Now if that data exists it needs to be made public. China has every reason to do so to strengthen their case.

That they have not done it suggests there is no record. Not because they don't keep any. It just did not work out that way.

Conspiracy theories will come out no matter what. First rule of intel. Ignore the first reports. They're usually wrong and by over-excited observers desperate to say something. In this case, this screams of DART and obvious why a General is put in charge. It does NOT scream bio weapon.

So the lay person is wrong.

And the theories are playing to that ignorance.

The one person that probably did the most to spread the bioweapon theory was a law professor who actually had a role in drafting the bioweapons convention. Goes by the name Francis Boyle.

https://law.illinois.edu/faculty-res...francis-boyle/

He drafted the U.S. domestic implementing legislation for the Biological Weapons Convention, known as the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, that was approved unanimously by both Houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by President George H.W. Bush.

Can you believe it !!!

[Officer of Engineers]

It can happen but this is not the case with the present pandemic.

And even if it is remember that serological record. It leaves an audit trail. You see a few cases then more and still more over a period of time. This could be weeks to months.

What record? We didn't even come up with a test for this thing until months after it spread world wide. By this time we got a test for it, the original bug is dead and gone and all we've got are anti-bodies. Come on, you've lived through this! Use your experience of when and what!

I'm not saying this is what happen but the theory is plausible on the surface.

[Double Edge]

What record? We didn't even come up with a test for this thing until months after it spread world wide. By this time we got a test for it, the original bug is dead and gone and all we've got are anti-bodies. Come on, you've lived through this! Use your experience of when and what!

I'm not saying this is what happen but the theory is plausible on the surface.

People getting unexplained pneumonia's over a period of time. In one place then another and so on.

Nobody knows what it is but you can see where it started and how fast it progressed.

This is the virus learning how to adapt and get going.

Further tests would then detect the genome and its mutations if they managed to isolate the cause.

We only hear about this Dec end with Dr. Li's wechat message. By this time its ready to go. Too late by this point.

No known record exists before. This is the bit that is crucial since it will only exist in China.

It has to exist if its natural because China will have health surveillance networks for exactly this reason.

It starts with Dr. Li and a month later Wuhan is locked down. It spreads very fast and then went global at the same rate.

Too quick to be natural. If it was natural you would see a build up like happened with previous SARS & MERS.

[Officer of Engineers]

People getting unexplained pneumonia's over a period of time. In one place then another and so on.

That's the point. No one was getting sick! And I have news for you. Think about this. This doesn't start over a period of time. It starts with patient zero. The first patient who got sick and again, 90% of the infected just got flu symptons and recover just fine.

Too quick to be natural. If it was natural you would see a build up like happened with previous SARS & MERS.

What are you talking about? The Spanish Flu was faster than this.

Current SARS-COV-2 cases, 173 million. Estimated 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic - 700 million to 1.4 billion infected. SARS-COV-2 ain't nothing out of the ordinary. Again, you lived through this. You should remember the Chicken Flu and Swine Flu scares. Use your experience instead of just reading other people's opinions. See if they fit the facts that YOU LIVED THROUGH!

[Double Edge]

however others would say the CCP are by nature secretive and controlling and would have preferred the PLA even in the event of a natural spillover, not least to crack down on the civilian population during a hard lockdown, and I reckon real hard, no soft western version. Not only did they put a general in charge, they kept the chinese CDC completely in the dark for an extended time.

They are secretive & controlling because anything that portrays them in a poor light is a threat to their political legitimacy.

So they have to keep a close watch on information and control or restrict its flow.

I could make a case for natural by saying the serolgical record exists but the CCP won't release it because then its proof they failed to stop the virus.

How can this be when XJP declared victory a few months later.

Fail they certainly did because it spread across the world but they don't care about that

XJP stopped it in China and that's all that matters.

[Double Edge]

That's the point. No one was getting sick! And I have news for you. Think about this. This doesn't start over a period of time. It starts with patient zero. The first patient who got sick and again, 90% of the infected just got flu symptons and recover just fine.

This would be several months before Dec 2019. It won't be that virulent at this point. It can spread but not as fast.

As it gains momentum it gets smarter and more virulent.

What are you talking about? The Spanish Flu was faster than this.

Current SARS-COV-2 cases, 173 million. Estimated 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic - 700 million to 1.4 billion infected. SARS-COV-2 ain't nothing out of the ordinary. Again, you lived through this. You should remember the Chicken Flu and Swine Flu scares. Use your experience instead of just reading other people's opinions. See if they fit the facts that YOU LIVED THROUGH!

Influenza does not need an intermediary host it can infect people directly. Same with bubonic plague. Fleas acted as the carrier. No intermediary host needed.

Spanish flu was swine flu. There were no surveillance networks then. It spread because people did not know how to control it.

Things are different today. Whatever avian flu outbreaks we've had the spread has been modest. See the zoonotic thread. virus detected in birds in 46 countries but only 8 cases in Russia.

Corona viruses need an intermediary host or that has been shown to be the case upto now.

The lack of an intermediary host suggests manipulation in the lab

The absence of an audit trail suggests lab leak

[Officer of Engineers]

This would be several months before Dec 2019. It won't be that virulent at this point. It can spread but not as fast.

As it gains momentum it gets smarter and more virulent.

Do the math then. Patient Zero with this specific SARS-COV-2 appearred but not diagnosed nor hospitalized in Dec 2019.

Influenza does not need an intermediary host it can infect people directly. So the take off time is shorter.

What's the difference? Do the math again. Patient Zero not hospitalized and not diagnosed, just stayed home in bed with OTC medications under the fever passed and go back to work.

Corona viruses need an intermediary host or that has been shown to be the case upto now.

The lack of an intermediary hosts suggest manipulation in the lab

The absence of an audit trail suggests lab leak

No it does not. All it means is that we have NOT found the intermediate host and the fact is we MAY NOT find it. Has it occured to you that the intermediate animal who may passed onto us has already died and that animal was one of a kind, ie the only one with that specific SARS virus? Humans are not the only ones eating wild animals.

[Double Edge]

here is a comparison between lockdown in Guangzhou and my city of Bangalore

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-covid-variant

They shut Guangzhou when their cases where in the high 10s daily. My city did not shut down until we crossed the ten thousand mark daily. Due to business opposition to lockdowns.

The result is i've been locked in from Apr 27 until today where they allowed shops to remain open to 5pm and then we go into lockdown after. Earlier everything has to close by noon.

Guangzhou locked down means remainder of Guangong province is spared. By waiting longer my entire state had to lock down as well.

Guangzhou locked down means no one can leave the city unless they can show they've tested negative. They can unlock sooner since there are fewer daily cases now.

https://www.thenewsminute.com/articl...ockdown-147874

We shut public transport down but flights out of the city are allowed.

In Melbourne they did the same as Guangzhou.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...es-2021-06-09/

The difference between a chinese lockdown and elsewhere is small but more disruptive. There is less warning if they shut down when cases are in the 10s

The ability to lock down when daily cases are lower without pressure from local business. They won't let people out of the city unless they test negative.

[Double Edge]

Do the math then. Patient Zero with this specific SARS-COV-2 appearred but not diagnosed nor hospitalized in Dec 2019.

How ?

If its established bats are the most likely host of the virus and those bats are located 1,500 km from Wuhan, you would expect cases to show up months before Dec 2019 in cities between the caves and Wuhan. Not there is it.

These bats don't live in the Wuhan area or Hubei.

What's the difference? Do the math again. Patient Zero not hospitalized and not diagnosed, just stayed home in bed with OTC medications under the fever passed and go back to work.

Asympotmatics are possible. At some point they infect others which then infect more. You would expect some to succumb and be hopitalised right. There is your trail beginning.

So why does it begin only in Wuhan then in early Dec 2019 ?

No it does not. All it means is that we have NOT found the intermediate host and the fact is we MAY NOT find it. Has it occured to you that the intermediate animal who may passed onto us has already died and that animal was one of a kind, ie the only one with that specific SARS virus? Humans are not the only ones eating wild animals.

Why can't we find it. We did for SARS as well as MERS. What is so difficult with this one. Third time around ?

OR is the intermediary host the humanised mice in the labs ?

Either they got out or the workers got infected and that is why the outbreak shows up in Wuhan and not outside Wuhan.

Think back to SARS twenty years back, that too came out of China. WHO did its job, virologists did their job. China had to do its job.

If anything that was really novel as there was no coronavirus infection like that earlier. Harder to figure out. Less international collaboration.

No social media, no video networks, much slower internet. This board was just getting going.

Yet, see how fast things moved and the science is settled.

[Officer of Engineers]

How ?

If its established bats are the most likely host of the virus and those bats are located 1,500 km from Wuhan, you would expect cases to show up months before Dec 2019 in cities between the caves and Wuhan. Not there is it.

These bats don't live in the Wuhan area or Hubei.


Asympotmatics are possible. At some point they infect others which then infect more. You would expect some to succumb and be hopitalised right. There is your trail beginning.

So why does it begin only in Wuhan then in early Dec 2019 ?

You're not getting it. Patient Zero. The first person to have the disease that begins the human to human spread. It no longer matters how the first person got the disease. The mathematical model now depends on human-to-human transfer. The mathematical model for SARS-COV-2 spread is NOTHING out of the ordinary vis-a-vi N1H1.

Why can't we find it. We did for SARS as well as MERS. What is so difficult with this one. Third time around ?

OR is the intermediary host the humanised mice in the labs ?

Either they got out or the workers got infected and that is why the outbreak shows up in Wuhan and not outside Wuhan.

Think back to SARS twenty years back, that too came out of China. WHO did its job, virologists did their job. China had to do its job.

If anything that was really novel as there was no coronavirus infection like that earlier. Harder to figure out. Less international collaboration.

No social media, no video networks, much slower internet. This board was just getting going.

Yet, see how fast things moved and the science is settled.

There are theories abound why we cannot find the intermediate host. All of them plausible. From the fact that we may be the intermediate host to the infected intermediate animals died out before they could make the spread to their own spieces but not before spreading to humans. Both are far more plausible than a weaponized COVID.

[Double Edge]

The media's job is in part to assess these incentive factors and achieve balance reporting but they took a hard pass on doing their jobs properly. Facebook and Zuckerberg also got sucked into censoring the discussion, abdicating any future role in policing social discourse as far I am concerned, briefly an attractive idea in this new era of disinformation.

Conspiracy theories will come out no matter what. First rule of intel. Ignore the first reports. They're usually wrong and by over-excited observers desperate to say something.

At the outset it's normal to go for the natural theory as the family of the virus was identified and we had two precedents already. The evidence would present itself if not in 3 then 6 months or a years time.

Lab leak would be possible but less preferred.

What nobody expected was American bureaucrats, academia, media and social media pushing the CCP's line. Doing the CCP's bidding if not toeing the line.

This was unusual. You would think that alternatives can be discussed but it was proscribed.

The bureaucrats & academia would not say it because that was being political and not objective.

For media and social media companies it was fake news with the latter enforcing by censorship.

The CCP successfully controlled the narrative at least for a year.

[Officer of Engineers]

Why are you so determine to prove bio deployment?

What is the intermediate host species of SARS-CoV-2? | Future Virology

It took FIVE YEARS to find RaTG13. Bio deployment makes zero sense both from a scientific and a military perspective.

[Double Edge]

You're not getting it. Patient Zero. The first person to have the disease that begins the human to human spread. It no longer matters how the first person got the disease. The mathematical model now depends on human-to-human transfer. The mathematical model for SARS-COV-2 spread is NOTHING out of the ordinary vis-a-vi N1H1.

I am trying to.

So patient zero. Spreading to others takes time. The virus is not very virulent at this stage. May be asymptomatic which means chances of spreading occur during a narrow window from infection to when the immune system is about to overwhelm the virus.

Where are these patients located in China ?

There are theories abound why we cannot find the intermediate host. All of them plausible. From the fact that we may be the intermediate host to the infected intermediate animals died out before they could make the spread to their own spieces but not before spreading to humans. Both are far more plausible than a weaponized COVID.

If we go the no intermediary host route then it means we can be directly infected by these bats.

Why an Intermediate Host May Not Be Essential for the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 | Medium | Mar 31 2021

You are quoting the Glasgow study ?

How do they explain no bat researchers falling sick in the field.

It took 5 years to find RATG13. That's a lot of bats they handled.

Why are you so determine to prove bio deployment?

I can't !! You've already ruled out a deliberate leak. Because deterrence.

But accidental leak is plausible.