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  • #61
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Why are you watching this garbage? The Black Death is bubonic plague spread by rats as the intermediate spieces. Well documented through DNA research of Black Death corpses. The Mongols spread the Black Death alright. They were the dying ones who spread it to the rats. Not this garbage about 1347 Mongols.
    Decided to look this one up since you flagged it. The idea comes from a notary called , Gabriele de’ Mussi

    According to an Italian notary, Gabriele de’ Mussi, who reported the events at Caffa for posterity, “among those who escaped from Caffa by boat were a few sailors who had been infected with the poisonous disease. Some boats were bound for Genoa, others went to Venice and to other Christian areas.

    When the sailors reached these places and mixed with the people there, it was as if they had brought evil spirits with them: every city, every settlement, every place was poisoned by the contagious pestilence.” De’ Mussi’s account of events implies that the siege of Caffa may have been the origin point for the Plague’s introduction into Europe.

    But just how accurate is De’ Mussi’s account? The basic narrative, that the Mongols used Plague cadavers as a weapon is likely true. The idea of throwing diseased corpses into enemy cities is an old one. And it is consistent with the ideas prevalent at the time about how the disease spread.

    So the idea that a Mongol commander, angry about having been forced to lift his siege of a city, might fling the corpses of Plague victims into that city to kill the inhabitants is completely plausible. Furthermore, it was technically achievable given Mongol siege technology.

    And De’ Mussi’s suggestion that the Mongol’s act of biological warfare at Caffa lead to the Plague that killed millions of people is often repeated as fact.
    That's the theory. Did it lead to spread yes. Was it the primary cause, likely no. There were other avenues.

    However, the truth is likely a bit different. We know that the Black Death entered Western Europe from Crimean trading ports. However, there’s no reason to tie the biological attack at Caffa with the introduction of the disease.

    Mongols controlled many ports in the Crimea region and infection rapidly spread through all of them. Plague-carrying rats could easily have entered Italy on ships from any of these ports. While diseased sailors from Caffa may have helped spread the Plague into Italian ports, they were likely not the only or even the first to do so.
    This is the point Rishabh was trying to make in his opening statement

    And whether or not the Mongols helped to introduce it to Europe with an act of biological warfare, it reminds us just how devastating a weapon it can be.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 25 May 21,, 23:43.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Tom Clancy's EXECUTIVE ORDER. Read.
      Fascinating. Not read this one. Result was regime change

      Something more contemporary

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks

      Took a very long time to figure out. I was in the US when this happened and don't recall there being much of panic as the anthrax was delivered by letter.

      To the media and govt. Govt shut down and the post.

      This is the equivalent of a terrorist attack and they still could not conclude with certainty almost a decade later.

      Instead of letters imagine a plane of people arriving in the country. The people go about doing their thing.

      Odds of finding who, when are slim to none. To then act on what is found is harder.

      If casualties are small we'll absorb it until a pattern forms from more of these attacks.

      Once that is set then things will get more clear.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Decided to look this one up since you flagged it. The idea comes from a notary called , Gabriele de’ Mussi

        That's the theory. Did it lead to spread yes. Was it the primary cause, likely no. There were other avenues.

        This is the point Rishabh was trying to make in his opening statement
        And it's complete garbage! We have DNA traces of bubonic plague dating back long before Caffa and biological warfare is far older than the Mongols. What do you think poision is? We can even go back and find evidence of mass biological warfare with oasis and wells being poisoned with slaughtered animals. So, that claim is academically false.

        2nd, the Black Death wasn't the first plague that hit Europe. In fact, Rome was saved from Atalia because plague wiped out his army (and large parts of Rome). Even Moses recorded plagues that devastated Egypt. So, no the 2nd claim is also false. Europe needed no reminders how devastating plague is ... and frankly neither do we. We went through the Spanish Flu.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Fascinating. Not read this one. Result was regime change
        EXECUTIVE ORDERS details a biological attack (ebola) that killed millions in short order. It also details how they trace cases back to the lab that spawned it. The point is that it is near impossible to do mass murder without revealling yourself, thus identifying yourself for retalliation. The anthrax cases are small localized attacks and most certainly was not a weaponized variant. Was it modified? Don't know but its lethality is similar to those you can find in any livestock maneur pile.

        Within context, if COVID-19 was lab release, we KNOW the lab responsible. If we determine it was a deliberate release, that lab will be growing a mushroom cloud ... and all that it implies.

        And Chinese growth? Wake me up when they gotten back to where they were before COVID.
        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 26 May 21,, 01:31.
        Chimo

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          And it's complete garbage! We have DNA traces of bubonic plague dating back long before Caffa and biological warfare is far older than the Mongols. What do you think poision is? We can even go back and find evidence of mass biological warfare with oasis and wells being poisoned with slaughtered animals. So, that claim is academically false.

          2nd, the Black Death wasn't the first plague that hit Europe. In fact, Rome was saved from Atalia because plague wiped out his army (and large parts of Rome). Even Moses recorded plagues that devastated Egypt. So, no the 2nd claim is also false. Europe needed no reminders how devastating plague is ... and frankly neither do we. We went through the Spanish Flu.
          Had typed out an answer here and removed it when i figured out your next bit.

          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          EXECUTIVE ORDERS details a biological attack (ebola) that killed millions in short order. It also details how they trace cases back to the lab that spawned it. The point is that it is near impossible to do mass murder without revealling yourself, thus identifying yourself for retalliation.
          Ah, you've given me an idea as to why this might not be as scary as thought. Awesome

          Carrying out a terror attack does not count unless credit can be had.

          So if we have a party that does then there's your target and whichever country that harbours them

          If they don't then more work has to be done.

          At this point which is more likely ? Am tempted to say the former.

          Bragging rights matter.

          Paks don't need bio for that. Simpler to stick to their usual bread & butter.

          Like how you blew away the entire premise.


          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          The anthrax cases are small localized attacks and most certainly was not a weaponized variant. Was it modified? Don't know but its lethality is similar to those you can find in any livestock maneur pile.
          Not weaponsied. The culprit wanted support for his vaccine program so he launched the attack.

          Steven Hatfill was considered a suspect and had to fight to be exonerated.

          This is why the CCP says look at Ft. Detrick because that is where the US went for the anthrax attack. Didn't realise there was a joke in there but i see it now.

          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Within context, if COVID-19 was lab release, we KNOW the lab responsible. If we determine it was a deliberate release, that lab will be growing a mushroom cloud ... and all that it implies.
          Very good

          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          And Chinese growth? Wake me up when they gotten back to where they were before COVID.
          Surprised to read this from you. Figured you would be more optimistic. But ok.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 26 May 21,, 03:08.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Ah, you've given me an idea as to why this might not be as scary as thought. Awesome

            Carrying out a terror attack does not count unless credit can be had.

            So if we have a party that does then there's your target and whichever country that harbours them

            If they don't then more work has to be done.

            At this point which is more likely ? Am tempted to say the former.

            Bragging rights matter.

            Like how you blew away the entire premise.
            You have not read the book. The bio attack was a distraction. It was meant to keep the US busy so not interfere with foreign military adventures. The bio attacking country (in this case, Iran) had no intentions of wanting to be identified or else invite nukes. The book detailed how the US determined it was Iran and the lab it came from.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Surprised to read this from you. Figured you would be more optimistic. But ok.
            No one has recovered from COVID. No one. Not even China. To state that they are better than everybody else is overstating things.

            Chimo

            Comment


            • #66
              EXECUTIVE ORDERS details a biological attack (ebola) that killed millions in short order. It also details how they trace cases back to the lab that spawned it. The point is that it is near impossible to do mass murder without revealling yourself, thus identifying yourself for retalliation. The anthrax cases are small localized attacks and most certainly was not a weaponized variant. Was it modified? Don't know but its lethality is similar to those you can find in any livestock maneur pile.


              I have had thoughts of that book quite a bit over the past year....but really don't see where fiction and nonfiction meet in this case. But I did enjoy the book....especially the ending!!!

              Oh, and the scene where the OPFOR Commander, National Guard Brigade Commander & NTC Commander all meet for a bourbon after the training scenario was run out....not gonna happen!

              But as for DNA markers....what do you think The United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at FT Detrick, MD, works on? These very points...what are the sources, what are the markers and what are the counters. And they work closely with the CDC as well.
              Last edited by Albany Rifles; 26 May 21,, 14:23.
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                You have not read the book. The bio attack was a distraction. It was meant to keep the US busy so not interfere with foreign military adventures. The bio attacking country (in this case, Iran) had no intentions of wanting to be identified or else invite nukes. The book detailed how the US determined it was Iran and the lab it came from.
                Not read it, only one i read was red october rising and saw the four movies. They were great.

                You said millions were affectedin the US. In the book did it spread to other countries as well ?

                Bio weapon isn't as attractive as i thought.

                Initially it seemed like the ultimate terror weapon.

                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                No one has recovered from COVID. No one. Not even China. To state that they are better than everybody else is overstating things.
                Not saying they recovered.

                Saying they are the only country that has had positive growth.

                Now whether that is true or not i don't know but its what gets talked about.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

                  You said millions were affectedin the US. In the book did it spread to other countries as well ?

                  Bio weapon isn't as attractive as i thought.


                  1. No because the attack vector was very localized and the response in the book was immediate lockdown and a following of basic public health measures...things many of our nations did not do which allowed COVID to spread more widely.

                  2. Bioweapons are horribly inefficient for use by a 1st or 2nd tier nation due to their vagaries and they can be easily defeated. Most military members are vaccinated against most variants that can be weaponized...and basic CBRN defense techniques work as well until you can get the force out of the impacted area.

                  “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                  Mark Twain

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    Saying they are the only country that has had positive growth.

                    Now whether that is true or not i don't know but its what gets talked about.
                    All that means is that their sick has gotten out of bed earlier than ours but they are nowhere even being close to being 100%.

                    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                    1. No because the attack vector was very localized and the response in the book was immediate lockdown and a following of basic public health measures...things many of our nations did not do which allowed COVID to spread more widely.

                    2. Bioweapons are horribly inefficient for use by a 1st or 2nd tier nation due to their vagaries and they can be easily defeated. Most military members are vaccinated against most variants that can be weaponized...and basic CBRN defense techniques work as well until you can get the force out of the impacted area.
                    To add to this, there is zero hope of the attacker not being identified and zero avoiding of incoming nukes.
                    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 27 May 21,, 17:52.
                    Chimo

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      To add to this, there is zero hope of the attacker not being identified and zero avoiding of incoming nukes.

                      Yeah since we consider a bio attack a WMD usage...several W80 & B93 warheads inbound.
                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        We do. We warned Saddam that if he used Biochems, he would be nuked.
                        And that is the point. Deterrence. I missed that the premise of that show ignored it. My bad

                        Can cook up any scenario if we pretend deterrence does not exist.

                        Without deterrence we're all sitting ducks.

                        The reason we don't get nuked is the same reason no one is going to use bio against us.

                        If we consider deterrence exists then the bulk of first use scenarios, nuclear and bio won't happen. Same for conventional too.

                        Lots of people want to challenge the concept of deterrence. It gets in the way of stories.

                        Deterrence works until it doesn't they say. If it didn't work then you didn't have it or no longer have it, by definition. This is why we had a WW1 & 2 but not 3 and when deterrence no longer works we'll have another.

                        Every single example you can think is is merely anecdotal. With this they trash all recorded history of would be conflicts where deterrence DID work.


                        Was Covid a bioweapon? No

                        That is if you believe in the concept of deterrence
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 28 May 21,, 01:38.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          All that means is that their sick has gotten out of bed earlier than ours but they are nowhere even being close to being 100%.
                          Too early to call ? ok

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            He wants a report in 90 days. So early September is when we learn if USG has changed their stance.

                            Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-19 | WH | May 26 2021

                            Back in early 2020, when COVID-19 emerged, I called for the CDC to get access to China to learn about the virus so we could fight it more effectively. The failure to get our inspectors on the ground in those early months will always hamper any investigation into the origin of COVID-19.

                            Nevertheless, shortly after I became President, in March, I had my National Security Advisor task the Intelligence Community to prepare a report on their most up-to-date analysis of the origins of COVID-19, including whether it emerged from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident. I received that report earlier this month, and asked for additional follow-up. As of today, the U.S. Intelligence Community has “coalesced around two likely scenarios” but has not reached a definitive conclusion on this question.

                            Here is their current position: “while two elements in the IC leans toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter – each with low or moderate confidence – the majority of elements do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other.”

                            I have now asked the Intelligence Community to redouble their efforts to collect and analyze information that could bring us closer to a definitive conclusion, and to report back to me in 90 days.

                            As part of that report, I have asked for areas of further inquiry that may be required, including specific questions for China. I have also asked that this effort include work by our National Labs and other agencies of our government to augment the Intelligence Community’s efforts. And I have asked the Intelligence Community to keep Congress fully apprised of its work.

                            The United States will also keep working with like-minded partners around the world to press China to participate in a full, transparent, evidence-based international investigation and to provide access to all relevant data and evidence.
                            What a welcome surprise

                            Last edited by Double Edge; 28 May 21,, 04:27.

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                            • #74
                              Confusing read

                              Pompeo-led effort to hunt down Covid lab theory shut down by Biden administration over concerns about quality of evidence | CNN | May 26 2021

                              A day after CNN reported this story, the State Department disputed that it had shut down the Trump-era inquiry and instead said that its work had been completed. Several sources involved with the inquiry who spoke to CNN said it was their impression that there was more work to be done.
                              State denied they shut down the earlier effort because they say it was already completed and now it seems more work needs to be done and a probe is being initiated. eh ?

                              Though Biden officials shut down this particular inquiry, they remain skeptical of Beijing's role in limiting investigators from accessing information that may be pertinent to the origins of the virus. US intelligence agencies continue to examine the question of whether the virus emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or if it could have been the result of a laboratory accident.
                              I said surprise because this probe was unexpected. Nobody knows what a new administration will do until they act.

                              Turns out there is a bipartisan consensus to find out more about the origins of this virus.

                              Fact Sheet: Activity at the Wuhan Institute of Virology | State | Jan 15 2021

                              The process behind declassifying the intelligence in that statement took weeks, and certain details were scrubbed from the final version which was put out, sources familiar with the process told CNN.

                              The State Department's small group looking into the lab leak theory contributed to that fact sheet, but most of its information came from the US intelligence community, sources told CNN.
                              This is what USG said they knew as of Jan 15 2021.

                              "It is absolutely accurate the intelligence community does not know exactly where, when or how Covid-19 virus was transmitted initially," US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said last month during a congressional briefing.

                              Despite continued calls for the need to understand what caused the Covid-19 outbreak more clearly as a way of preventing a future pandemic, the US still is far from understanding its precise origin."It appears we do not understand the emergence of Covid-19 any better than we did 6-9 months ago.

                              The world needs to learn as much as possible about the earliest days of the Covid-19 pandemic to better prepare our governments, our people, and our public health institutions for the next health crisis," the State Department spokesperson said.

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                              • #75
                                Senate passes bill requiring declassification of information on COVID-19 origins | The Hill | May 26 20201

                                Among the declassifications the bill would require would be activities performed at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, including those on behalf of the People's Liberation Army, and coronavirus-related activities prior to the outbreak.

                                It would also require the declassification of details on any researchers who fell ill in autumn 2019, including their names, symptoms and whether they visited hospitals.

                                That bill would require the information to be given to Congress in an unclassified report.

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