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  • #91


    Scott is getting closer to a good shorthand summary but not quite there.


    Fauci emails confirm top US virologists (some who still back zoonotic as likely cause) were initially concerned about the virus sequence, they emailed fauci and fauci explained the situation to euro counterparts. Later virologists swung back to zoonotic upon more analysis.

    Note each time he tries to explain the sequence of events/narrative regarding the virologists later zoonotic pivot (early and late in video) he follows with equivocations/hedge that there are unusual features. So he claims the narrative is the virologists later settled on zoonotic (but he each time he acknowledges the unusual features). Scott knows any zoonotic pivot was overstated or too definitive, or that it doesnt really capture the chain of events accurately. I actually think he believes the latter. Problem is he doesnt want to discuss trump, cancel culture, political and funding incentives, he doesnt want to throw anybody under the bus, if you don’t want to do any of those things than understanding/explaining events will have some large gaps.

    It was obvious from the beginning there were unusual features. It hasnt taken a year to spot them. The emails just reveal the obvious which is that actual experts saw them too, go figure. It was also obvious they could arise naturally by recombination, that didnt take further deep analysis. What took time was a false narrative to take hold that this was taboo and we should just settle on zoonotic, could arise in the wild, so did arise in the wild, look away. Scott doesnt want to touch why some scientists settled on all false narrative and the rest of the scientific community stayed silent. He is right why the narrative has broken, us intelligence circumstantial evidence and other kinds of evidence have overwhelmed the narrative, but he is not explaining how the original narrative was built on weak thinking. It takes very little good evidence to overwhelm a narrative if that narrative was weak in the first place. That weakness, that was always there from the very beginning, everybody would prefer not to touch it. I have seen the odd writer observe the obvious, how has the lab leak hypothesis gained so much traction with so little new emerging evidence, answer, its not just what’s new, its what’s was never there in the first place...

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      It took us 1500 years to understand influenza. In modern times, it took 9 years to find the root cause of leginaire disease. AIDS was running amok for 10 years before people even knew it existed and then another 6 years to identify the virus. And people are complaining about 6 months?
      Do you notice how the timeframe to identifying the cause gets shorter with each iteration ?

      16 months and we still don't have an intermediate host for this virus. Pretty damn bad for 21st century stds isn't it.

      Do you see what is happening here. It's not new. We saw this ten years back.

      Remember Climate gate ? Pari was in the lead posting about it here.

      Missing Pari right now

      The crux of the matter OOE is science as a process of enquiry is being substituted by science by authority.

      Don't rock the boat if you value your career. Stop asking awkward questions.

      This is not the military i'm taking about but our vaunted science establishment.

      An unelected bunch of technocrats are being put in power that can overrule elected govt and silence critics from within their ranks. This is govt shirking its responsibility.

      Follow the science govt says. Science does not lead anywhere.

      Science does not make decisions. It tells you about gains and tradeoffs. That's it.

      State of science in the world is not good right now if we're going to have cockups like this every decade.

      Guess the silver lining is at least we catch each scandal and expose it.



      Sharri is talking about a cover up. Another cover up that is occurring in the US.

      She does not acknowledge the probe Biden called.

      So what is the intent of this probe ? to show there is no cover up in the US at least. Right ?

      It is to clear up the fog and exonerate US institutions from any involvement in this virus.

      This is the preliminary step for what is to follow next which i will get into in another reply to you.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Jun 21,, 20:01.

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Do you notice how the timeframe to identifying the cause gets shorter with each iteration ?
        https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics...pathic-disease

        Some of these are over 100 years and we still have not figure out what caused these.

        You're betting way too much on our sciences. Always bet on Mother Nature because she's a bitch and she'll run circles around any lab.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics...pathic-disease

          Some of these are over 100 years and we still have not figure out what caused these.
          Not caused by pathogens are they.

          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          You're betting way too much on our sciences. Always bet on Mother Nature because she's a bitch and she'll run circles around any lab.
          We have multiple vaccines but no intermediary host ?

          Treatments but cannot identify the cause.

          If you give mother nature a leg up then it gets even worse

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Ok, let's back up a few steps. Science is based on observations, not rumours. While there are some facts that points to gain-of-function mutations,
            Ah, so you're stepping back from lab leak now.

            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            there are a hell of a lot more facts supporting the zoological mutation. You go where the facts lead you. Far, far, far more facts lead to the zoological than gain-of-function. In fact, there are the same number of facts supporting Wuhan gain-of-function as there are supporting Martian involvement. Is it possible? Yes to both. Are there any facts suuporting Wuhan over Mars? Nope.
            Lack of a credible Intermediary host is the hole in the zoonotic theory.

            Where is it. if anything China should have put this out long ago in a transparent and verifiable way. It is in their interest to do so.

            Pangolin isn't holding up.

            They sequenced the genome in record time.

            They went to all lengths to locate the natural reservoir of coronoviruses in some caves.

            What is the hold up with discovering the intermediary host.
            Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Jun 21,, 20:45.

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Not caused by pathogens are they.
              Don't know. That's why they're Idiopathic Diseases.

              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              We have multiple vaccines but no intermediary host ?
              Has it occured to you that the intermediary host maybe a human beling? We're concentrating on an animal host because the closest cousing to COVID is bats sars-cov-x with over 90% identicle genome.

              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Treatments but cannot identify the cause.
              Sure you can. You do what Mother Nature has done for over a million years. Rest and prayer.

              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              If you give mother nature a leg up then it gets even worse
              You're joking. I have news for you. None of us is getting out of this alive.

              Chimo

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Ah, so you're stepping back from lab leak now.
                No, I'm simply stating that there are a lot more leads on zoological mutation than gain-of-function. There are some observations that would strongly suggest gain-o-function but most known facts still points to zoological? Can we ignore lab leak? No but where do you put your efforts? Where the evidence is the strongest or where the evidence is weaker?

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Lack of a credible Intermediary host is the hole in the zoonotic theory.
                We've gone through 3 variants since it was introduced to the human population. It could very well be that we are the intermediate host.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                They sequenced the genome in record time.
                They had a big head start. They're bat nerds.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • #98
                  They had a big head start. They're bat nerds.

                  Also they had gone to school on the SARS virus and learned a lot of technologies and techniques which they were able to leverage in this case which accounts for a lot of rapid work done here.

                  Same can be said for how rapidly we had vaccines ready to go.

                  I wish I could cross Twitter to this platform. There was an excellent posting from a Johns Hopkins virologist explaining in depth how ruinously difficult it would be manufacture this in the lab. Like an order of magnitude of like 30,000.
                  “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                  Mark Twain

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    If the lab leak could not be ruled out it seems rather strange that DNI ever put out the following statement at the end of Apr 2020

                    Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19 | DNI | Apr 30 2020

                    “The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
                    Things change by Jan 15 where state puts out the factsheet that kicked off the lab leak story. Henceforth it became acceptable to talk about lab leak.

                    The virus could have emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals, spreading in a pattern consistent with a natural epidemic. Alternatively, a laboratory accident could resemble a natural outbreak if the initial exposure included only a few individuals and was compounded by asymptomatic infection. Scientists in China have researched animal-derived coronaviruses under conditions that increased the risk for accidental and potentially unwitting exposure.
                    Ingraham asks Pompeo why DNI was downplaying his efforts at the time but we never get an answer.



                    Whatever went on in intel, Mike got his way in the end.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Jun 21,, 18:47.

                    Comment


                    • Oh...you mean the fact sheet put out by the hyper-political secretary of state who was running his own shadow...and frankly unethical and illegal...intelligence operation by people with questionable credentials.

                      I'll trust intel reports when it comes from DNI and not the State Department. If the State Department wants to talk about the impact of COVID on the political climate in the PRC, fine, I'll listen. But not on intel matters nor on medical intelligence matters.

                      And you ask what changed in 11 months....are you totally unaware of the complete and total politicization of COVID in the US?

                      And Pompeo has his sights on the POTUS...and coming out in defense of the Trump Administration he is trying to play to the Trump base.
                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        It could very well be that we are the intermediate host.

                        They had a big head start. They're bat nerds.
                        Read Brett's article at post #84

                        To do what you're saying the virus has to learn to infect humans and then it has to learn another trick, jump to another.

                        As it does this there will be a trail left behind.

                        Where is it ? There should be a serological record. I highlighted Wade saying this in post #29

                        You don't get to infect the world in the matter of a few months without a trail unless its engineered to do so at the time it leaked.

                        How long did it take for the variants to emerge ?

                        I started hearing about a British variant a few months after this started. We'd not found one in India for at least a year.

                        Dr. Li sends out the wechat message Dec 20 2019. He is apprehended and made to recant Jan 03 2020.

                        Jan 22 2020, Wuhan is locked down.

                        Very short time. It was viable and ready to spread at the time Dr. Li found the cases a month earlier.

                        We've gone through 3 variants since it was introduced to the human population.
                        Post facto

                        It's infected people, now its doing its thing, surviving and adapting. Many infected people means space to grow and improve.

                        You're joking. I have news for you. None of us is getting out of this alive.
                        Vaccine. Won't prevent you getting infected but will vastly improve your chances of recovery.

                        They had a big head start. They're bat nerds.
                        Where's the PPE OOE ? According to Brett she does not need any.

                        Click image for larger version  Name:	bat woman.jpg Views:	0 Size:	468.8 KB ID:	1573920
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Jun 21,, 19:42.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          Oh...you mean the fact sheet put out by the hyper-political secretary of state who was running his own shadow...and frankly unethical and illegal...intelligence operation by people with questionable credentials.
                          You mean like Cheney. After that we accept this is how things work. He can if he wants to. The fact sheet is official USG. It counts.

                          CIA is a force to reckon outside the US, but inside is another matter.

                          I can appreciate trying to coral into one pen the 16 or is it 17 odd orgs that make up your intel apparatus can be a trying task.

                          There will be differences of opinion. There will be factions.

                          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          I'll trust intel reports when it comes from DNI and not the State Department. If the State Department wants to talk about the impact of COVID on the political climate in the PRC, fine, I'll listen. But not on intel matters nor on medical intelligence matters.
                          Can't answer this until the 90 days are up. We get interesting tidbits on a weekly basis.


                          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          And you ask what changed in 11 months....are you totally unaware of the complete and total politicization of COVID in the US?
                          Yes i'm aware of that.

                          I meant how lab leak goes from circumscribed to acceptable. And the best answer i can give you is the evidence for natural wasn't holding up with time. People started digging up things and questioning it.

                          Questioning the way it was decreed.

                          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          And Pompeo has his sights on the POTUS...and coming out in defense of the Trump Administration he is trying to play to the Trump base.
                          Does Trump need any defense when he says lab leak today ? Why is Biden calling for a probe. Never expected it.

                          Way it looks your health chief called the shots there right from the start. Trump was a spectator and he could not touch Fauci.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Jun 21,, 21:03.

                          Comment




                          • The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak | WSJ (op-ed) | Jun 06 2021

                            The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.

                            By Steven Quay and Richard Muller
                            June 6, 2021 11:59 am EST

                            The possibility that the pandemic began with an escape from the Wuhan Institute of Virology is attracting fresh attention. President Biden has asked the national intelligence community to redouble efforts to investigate.

                            Much of the public discussion has focused on circumstantial evidence: mysterious illnesses in late 2019; the lab’s work intentionally supercharging viruses to increase lethality (known as “gain of function” research). The Chinese Communist Party has been reluctant to release relevant information. Reports based on U.S. intelligence have suggested the lab collaborated on projects with the Chinese military.

                            But the most compelling reason to favor the lab leak hypothesis is firmly based in science. In particular, consider the genetic fingerprint of CoV-2, the novel coronavirus responsible for the disease Covid-19.

                            In gain-of-function research, a microbiologist can increase the lethality of a coronavirus enormously by splicing a special sequence into its genome at a prime location. Doing this leaves no trace of manipulation. But it alters the virus spike protein, rendering it easier for the virus to inject genetic material into the victim cell. Since 1992 there have been at least 11 separate experiments adding a special sequence to the same location. The end result has always been supercharged viruses.

                            A genome is a blueprint for the factory of a cell to make proteins. The language is made up of three-letter “words,” 64 in total, that represent the 20 different amino acids. For example, there are six different words for the amino acid arginine, the one that is often used in supercharging viruses. Every cell has a different preference for which word it likes to use most.

                            In the case of the gain-of-function supercharge, other sequences could have been spliced into this same site. Instead of a CGG-CGG (known as “double CGG”) that tells the protein factory to make two arginine amino acids in a row, you’ll obtain equal lethality by splicing any one of 35 of the other two-word combinations for double arginine. If the insertion takes place naturally, say through recombination, then one of those 35 other sequences is far more likely to appear; CGG is rarely used in the class of coronaviruses that can recombine with CoV-2.

                            In fact, in the entire class of coronaviruses that includes CoV-2, the CGG-CGG combination has never been found naturally. That means the common method of viruses picking up new skills, called recombination, cannot operate here. A virus simply cannot pick up a sequence from another virus if that sequence isn’t present in any other virus.

                            Although the double CGG is suppressed naturally, the opposite is true in laboratory work. The insertion sequence of choice is the double CGG. That’s because it is readily available and convenient, and scientists have a great deal of experience inserting it. An additional advantage of the double CGG sequence compared with the other 35 possible choices: It creates a useful beacon that permits the scientists to track the insertion in the laboratory.

                            Now the damning fact. It was this exact sequence that appears in CoV-2. Proponents of zoonotic origin must explain why the novel coronavirus, when it mutated or recombined, happened to pick its least favorite combination, the double CGG. Why did it replicate the choice the lab’s gain-of-function researchers would have made?

                            Yes, it could have happened randomly, through mutations. But do you believe that? At the minimum, this fact—that the coronavirus, with all its random possibilities, took the rare and unnatural combination used by human researchers—implies that the leading theory for the origin of the coronavirus must be laboratory escape.

                            When the lab’s Shi Zhengli and colleagues published a paper in February 2020 with the virus’s partial genome, they omitted any mention of the special sequence that supercharges the virus or the rare double CGG section. Yet the fingerprint is easily identified in the data that accompanied the paper. Was it omitted in the hope that nobody would notice this evidence of the gain-of-function origin?

                            But in a matter of weeks virologists Bruno Coutard and colleagues published their discovery of the sequence in CoV-2 and its novel supercharged site. Double CGG is there; you only have to look. They comment in their paper that the protein that held it “may provide a gain-of-function” capability to the virus, “for efficient spreading” to humans.

                            There is additional scientific evidence that points to CoV-2’s gain-of-function origin. The most compelling is the dramatic differences in the genetic diversity of CoV-2, compared with the coronaviruses responsible for SARS and MERS.

                            Both of those were confirmed to have a natural origin; the viruses evolved rapidly as they spread through the human population, until the most contagious forms dominated. Covid-19 didn’t work that way. It appeared in humans already adapted into an extremely contagious version. No serious viral “improvement” took place until a minor variation occurred many months later in England.

                            Such early optimization is unprecedented, and it suggests a long period of adaptation that predated its public spread. Science knows of only one way that could be achieved: simulated natural evolution, growing the virus on human cells until the optimum is achieved. That is precisely what is done in gain-of-function research. Mice that are genetically modified to have the same coronavirus receptor as humans, called “humanized mice,” are repeatedly exposed to the virus to encourage adaptation.

                            The presence of the double CGG sequence is strong evidence of gene splicing, and the absence of diversity in the public outbreak suggests gain-of-function acceleration. The scientific evidence points to the conclusion that the virus was developed in a laboratory.

                            Dr. Quay is founder of Atossa Therapeutics and author of “Stay Safe: A Physician’s Guide to Survive Coronavirus.” Mr. Muller is an emeritus professor of physics at the University of California Berkeley and a former senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
                            Last year quite a few people found odd additions just be examining the virus genome that marked it out as not natural.

                            Difference is back then you were fringe if you said it, today its acceptable.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Jun 21,, 21:11.

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                            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                              They had a big head start. They're bat nerds.

                              Also they had gone to school on the SARS virus and learned a lot of technologies and techniques which they were able to leverage in this case which accounts for a lot of rapid work done here.

                              Same can be said for how rapidly we had vaccines ready to go.

                              I wish I could cross Twitter to this platform. There was an excellent posting from a Johns Hopkins virologist explaining in depth how ruinously difficult it would be manufacture this in the lab. Like an order of magnitude of like 30,000.
                              He is probably addressing people who claim this was constructed letter by letter as a bioweapon which is essentially impossible.

                              Applied in a non handcrafted bioweapon context it would be an unhelpful strawman, one we have been stuck on for a year. Eventually we wil have to get out from underneath it. Nature by natural selection is a very efficient at searching evolutionary design space, humans cant match it with our handcrafted methods yet although things are moving in that direction, as you say orders of magnitude, possibly only things advanced aliens might be intrested it, the biology of the planet. But we can mimic natures methodology in the lab, messy but still a productive approach...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post


                                The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak | WSJ (op-ed) | Jun 06 2021



                                Last year quite a few people found odd additions just be examining the virus genome that marked it out as not natural.

                                Difference is back then you were fringe if you said it, today its acceptable.
                                Anderson has offered a rebuttal on the double CGG. It can arise naturally no doubt but not probalistically favoured. Alina Chan discusses here https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1391753059504738308.

                                Iam not saying there isnt an issue to discuss here regarding the double CGG, and that it cant effect things probabisitically but its certainly an open debate to its significance.

                                I think its worth pointing out the obvious here, we actually don't know the origins of this pandemic and there is no single piece of evidence that leads to an aha moment. Its lots of tiny things, some scientific and technical, some even a lay person gets (such as presence of rare sars specialised labs in the city), that must be weighed in a complex mosaic. Then each person has to overcome their own personal bias and be open to having their opinion pushed in one direction by the state of the mosaic.
                                Last edited by tantalus; 08 Jun 21,, 22:09.

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