2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

I would caveat this by adding the statement...There is nothing in open source info that is verifiable. Because if OPSEC is working we should have zero knowledge of what is being said within Intel, and specifically order of battle intel, realms. That needs to stay in the hands of need to know and not show up on CNN.

What we are seeing are informed guessing.

An old saying. If two people are in the know, it ain't a secret. 40K is damned hard to be kept a secret. We've got intel about press gangs but not movement of 40K troops? Doesn't add up.

agreed.

of course, there's enough open source indicators regarding Russia moving -equipment-, because that's a lot harder to hide. for instance:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttech...54456311300101

But 40K or even 10K is easy to hide?

and empty bases:

https://www.rferl.org/a/finland-russ.../31869756.html

They've been emptied since before 24 Feb. The entire Russian regforce army is in the UKR.

in the end, as I said before, the ultimate indicator is combat intensity. the Russian forces once had the ability to do multi-BTG attacks across the entirety of Ukraine. then, they had the ability to do multi-BTG attacks in Donbas while conducting offensive fixing ops in Kharkiv.

now they're doing company-sized attacks in Donbas, the front-line hasn't substantially changed in a month, and the Kharkiv stuff has stopped.

Again, the big ass movement absolutely sucked and they are now doing things they can do well.

My gut says 30-40K KIA/WIA, certainly not 75K. Whole BTGs must have been decimated and local counter-attacks would have pushed all the way to CAA HQ. Yet, no such reports.

[tbm3fan]

agreed.

of course, there's enough open source indicators regarding Russia moving -equipment-, because that's a lot harder to hide. for instance:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttech...54456311300101

A few bits below on that link is a wonderful plug on why it would be great to move to Russia. I was going to move to Texas but I think Russia just one upped Texas with a better case for traditional values, christianity, cheap gas, great food but no BBQ. Although ballet in place of rodeo is tough to accept. What do you think???

Oh, Canada may be out of the running although there is rodeo in Canada. Do they have BBQ?

[Ironduke]

My gut says 30-40K KIA/WIA, certainly not 75K. Whole BTGs must have been decimated and local counter-attacks would have pushed all the way to CAA HQ. Yet, no such reports.

Regarding whole BTGs being decimated, and no such reports of that (if that's indeed what you're saying), I've listened to plenty of intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers back home to family and friends describing precisely that. Soldiers saying there's 50 left in their company in 200, saying 3 depleted BTGs being merged to constitute 1, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPz...SPMHMgQ/videos

[Ironduke]

A few bits below on that link is a wonderful plug on why it would be great to move to Russia. I was going to move to Texas but I think Russia just one upped Texas with a better case for traditional values, christianity, cheap gas, great food but no BBQ. Although ballet in place of rodeo is tough to accept. What do you think???

Oh, Canada may be out of the running although there is rodeo in Canada. Do they have BBQ?

I think Slavs generally find BBQ strange on first taste. At least the tangy, tomato, sweet/sour based BBQ sauce. Have met some from Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria who think it's the weirdest way to flavor meat. Yet they gobble up beets which taste like the dirt they were pulled from.

[Officer of Engineers]

Oh, Canada may be out of the running although there is rodeo in Canada. Do they have BBQ?

What do you think?

https://canadaslargestribfest.com/

Though winners have been American 4 years running.

[Officer of Engineers]

Regarding whole BTGs being decimated, and no such reports of that (if that's indeed what you're saying), I've listened to plenty of intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers back home to family and friends describing precisely that. Soldiers saying there's 50 left in their company in 200, saying 3 depleted BTGs being merged to constitute 1, etc.

Got to be careful about taking depleted BTGs tro flush out a full one. It maybe the case of unsustainable lost material loss instead of lost men. I certainly would not count a dead APC as 12 men lost, especially when there are no bodies around.

But active BTGs is how I came up with my number. I look at the BTGs still out in the field. Some flushed out back to full strength. Others are BTG-. A few are BTG+. Now, they have company groups/combat teams. I would not even be surprised if they have platoon groups (a single tank with inf pltn/pltn+). All in all, too many Russians are still shooting at the Ukrainians while we're getting intel about press gangs and about 3K Arab mercs coming into theatre but zero about any new Russian bde coming into theatre. Too much intel about how Russia is getting their men but zero about assembling them. Yeah, something don't add up.

[Ironduke]

Got to be careful about taking depleted BTGs tro flush out a full one. It maybe the case of unsustainable lost material loss instead of lost men. I certainly would not count a dead APC as 12 men lost, especially when there are no bodies around.

The phone intercepts, while admittedly anecdotal, talk about lost men.

I look at the BTGs still out in the field. Some flushed out back to full strength. Others are BTG-. A few are BTG+.

Do you have some source you're referring to determine which BTGs Russia has deployed in Ukraine, where they are, etc., that you can share with us?

[astralis]

They've been emptied since before 24 Feb. The entire Russian regforce army is in the UKR.

to be a bit nitpicky, roughly 85% of the reg force is in the Ukraine AOR, with some percentage of that held in reserve just outside of Ukraine proper. there's a bit more schlitz left.

Again, the big ass movement absolutely sucked and they are now doing things they can do well.

this was true up to about a month ago.

Combination of declining numbers, need to create a bigger reserve against the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive, and HIMARS strikes means they're forced to scale back, with far less artillery fires being carried out.

My gut says 30-40K KIA/WIA, certainly not 75K. Whole BTGs must have been decimated and local counter-attacks would have pushed all the way to CAA HQ. Yet, no such reports.

when enemy has overwhelming superiority in artillery and air superiority, local counter-attacks become very hard to push home even when enemy infantry has been decimated. Ukraine could maul and push (but not destroy) retreating Russian BTGs from Kyiv because the Russians were weaker in both. in Kharkiv, where the Russian air becomes more of a threat, Ukraine could push Russian ground forces to a point.

in the Donbas, where Russia has both air superiority, significant air defense and artillery, Ukraine is limited to small counter-attacks, more like raids -- even when entire units of LNR/DNR conscripts impale themselves against Ukrainian defenses.

Kherson and the entire southern front in general is a good place for the Ukrainian counterattack because the density of enemy artillery and air, while still significant, aren't anything like what they had in the Donbas.

in any case, because we've discussed the casualty numbers for quite a bit now, your gut feeling is essentially the low-end US guess, ~10K KIA/30K WIA.

75K is the high-end US guess. of course, the UK's assessment is roughly 80-100K, so if the US guess is suspicious to you, then one wonders what is going on at UK MI6/Defense Intel....:-)

[astralis]

Do you have some source you're referring to determine which BTGs Russia has deployed in Ukraine, where they are, etc., that you can share with us?

some of this can be pieced together from open-source, see Jomini of the West.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1...394304/photo/1

[Amled]

The Ukrainian’s and Russian’s are blaming each other for a HIMAR strike on a prison containing Ukrainian POW’s in Donetsk.
As for the Ukrainians, what reason on earth would they have for targeting a prison containing their own people?
As for the Russians…well seeing that the prison contained prisoners taken at Mariupol; including members of the Azov regiment!
What an easy way of getting rid of rather messy evidence then blowing it up, and blaming it on the “nefarious” Ukrainians.
This evening on the news there was a Russian video that showed piles of metallic shards purporting to be the remains of the HIMAR rocket that struck the prison.
Oh really…how many of that rocket type has been fired into Donetsk over the last weeks!!!
What would be more convincing would be if the Russians released the remains for an impartial international forensic examination.
Fat Chance!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...th-2022-07-28/

[Albany Rifles]

An old saying. If two people are in the know, it ain't a secret. 40K is damned hard to be kept a secret. We've got intel about press gangs but not movement of 40K troops? Doesn't add up.

Sir, you may have missed my point or I stated it poorly. My point was any public numbers are suspect. And I trust the ones and twos videos of destroyed equipment mean it's hard to miss the Moskva sinking or a T-72 with it's turret blown into lower Earth orbit. But I also recognize I am looking through a straw.

there's a reason I'm an historian. I can tell you what happened after the fact.

[Ironduke]

First battlefield use of the M270 MLRS in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1553043183931740161

[Officer of Engineers]

this was true up to about a month ago.

Still true today. Army HQ simply cannot handle 20+ BTGs. They have zero clues where to commit combat support when every single BTG is screaming for support.

Combination of declining numbers, need to create a bigger reserve against the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive, and HIMARS strikes means they're forced to scale back, with far less artillery fires being carried out.

I am very hesitant to attribute declining numbers. I smell a trap.

when enemy has overwhelming superiority in artillery and air superiority, local counter-attacks become very hard to push home even when enemy infantry has been decimated. Ukraine could maul and push (but not destroy) retreating Russian BTGs from Kyiv because the Russians were weaker in both. in Kharkiv, where the Russian air becomes more of a threat, Ukraine could push Russian ground forces to a point.

To the point of a CAA HQ. The kind of casualties you're talking about, there's litterally nothing left of a BTG ... and nothing in between the Ukrainians and the Russian CAA reserve, ie the CAA HQ protection force. Like Matt's example of 50 men left out of 200. In actual combat, they would not even stand as a single pltn+. They were spread out as bricks/sections (3-12 men). A single Ukrainian pltn could litterally drive all the way to BTG CP.

And for guns to work, they need KZs. That mean at least a blocking force to halt Ukrainian counter-attacks long enough for guns to acquire targets. So, at 75K, I would expect the Ukrainians to march all the way to Moscow. If not, a hell of a lot of Ukrainian Generals should lining up at a soup kitchen.

in any case, because we've discussed the casualty numbers for quite a bit now, your gut feeling is essentially the low-end US guess, ~10K KIA/30K WIA.

75K is the high-end US guess. of course, the UK's assessment is roughly 80-100K, so if the US guess is suspicious to you, then one wonders what is going on at UK MI6/Defense Intel....:-)

Not our asses being shiot off. They can be liberal with their estimates. If it was my command, I would have toss them on the front lines to learn how to get real estimates.

"You told me the opposing CAA sufferred 50-60% casualties. Well, there ain't 50-60% less guns shooting at us. Go count them for real."

[Officer of Engineers]

there's a reason I'm an historian. I can tell you what happened after the fact.

Yeah, this amateur historian says we ain't any better. I mean the actual battle lines at Little Big Horn and Isandlwana are not where we thought them to be.

It's going to be a lot of work sifting through the propaganda of this war to gleam the facts.

[Officer of Engineers]

As for the Ukrainians, what reason on earth would they have for targeting a prison containing their own people?

I can believe it. We targetted the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War with 40 sets of Go-No-Go. I strongly doubt Ukrainian Field Officers have such oversight. They might just know it's a source of Russian command sigs and assume it to be a Russian HQ. Fog of War.

I would not be surprise if blue-on-blue /red-on-red is happening all over the place.