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  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    I can think of someone who will be interested.

    Oh goodie!!!!!

    Leave a comment:


  • Monash
    replied
    Perun's latest YouTube is up and it's a beaut! This week he's deep diving into Russian equipment loss stats to get some kind of feel for how long they can replace various key equipment types assuming current loss rates are maintained across all groups. Lots of logistics and stats. I can think of someone who will be interested.
    Last edited by Monash; Yesterday, 04:14.

    Leave a comment:


  • Amled
    replied
    Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post

    I was feeling somewhat worse till today. It seems in France, the RN didn't get close to a majority. Thank god since some of Marine Le Pen's advisors would be to the right of Marshal Petain. Now it is a mix of centrists and the NFP. Still have the issue of Trump with some of his supporters to the right of? Well we won't go there just yet. Ukraine is in a tough spot at the moment, and Putin like Stalin, could care less what the cost. Seems to me Russia is condemned to always be a fxxked up country and so a constant thorn in many people's rear end.
    Really can’t expect anything else from a country and people, which since its very inception has lived under the rule of those whose mindset has been, and is: Might makes right!

    Leave a comment:


  • tbm3fan
    replied
    Originally posted by S2 View Post

    I feel very bleak.
    I was feeling somewhat worse till today. It seems in France, the RN didn't get close to a majority. Thank god since some of Marine Le Pen's advisors would be to the right of Marshal Petain. Now it is a mix of centrists and the NFP. Still have the issue of Trump with some of his supporters to the right of? Well we won't go there just yet. Ukraine is in a tough spot at the moment, and Putin like Stalin, could care less what the cost. Seems to me Russia is condemned to always be a fxxked up country and so a constant thorn in many people's rear end.

    Leave a comment:


  • S2
    replied
    "Ukraine's ability to pursue its own peace process is contingent on its ability to liberate operationally-significant territory. Ukraine cannot undertake successful counteroffensive efforts in support of this aim without Western military support in the near- and medium-terms." (EDIT-failed to acknowledge quote ISW July 6, 2024)

    Peace on any basis besides capitulation by Ukraine entails the re-capture of "operationally-significant territory". Anything less will not reverse Putin's present perspective. He believes he's winning ugly. Gains are modest, tactical, barely affordable in lives expended but inexorable all the same. Projected indefinitely, Russia will hold more tomorrow than they shall today...and so on until final victory or Putin's deposal/death.

    Or so Putin believes. Consequently there is NO basis for negotiations on either side. So...how to reverse Ukraine's operational miasma? No offensive operation of significance will succeed in the present battlefield without sufficient air-superiority to return freedom to operationally mass and maneuver effectively. To do so, Ukraine will not only have to actively assist ground offensive operations kinetically from the air but also diminish Russia's drone reconnaissance while defeating the stand-off threat posed by massive glide bombs.

    Aside from more brigade forces equipped and trained to fight aggressive offensive operations (almost impossible to get really, really good before commitment). Seems there's a problem with equipment...again. No money issues, mind you, just the usual slothness to which we've become accustomed. Now...nice and shiny those brigades might be, but if you wish operational success with amateurs, you'd better find all the force multipliers possible. E.W. good and in abundance. Anti-air from strategic defense of key infrastructure through brigade tactical air defense to facilitate maneuver despite FPV/Attack helicopters/Su-25. An expanded air umbrella provided by larger ani-air systems like PATRIOT and, dare I say, F-16s twenty nine months and counting after the war started.

    Finally this-both forces have evolved. The greatest qualitative disparity, IMV, existed in Ukraine's favor in the fall of 2022. Both the Ukrainian qualitative edge and the battlefield fluidity BEGGED for further exploitation. Ukraine literally had troops in Kremmina and just outside of Svatove. Both were predicted to fall anyday.

    It didn't happen. Ukraine culminated...or so they convinced themselves. In truth, though, much of the success in the north owed to Russian operational malpractice which Ukraine identified and skillfully exploited in grand series of tactical battles which carried them to Kremmina's doorstep. I don''t believe, however, they were psychologically prepared to reinforce success logistically and with follow-on forces. I've a sense they were as surprised as everybody else and were somewhat self-congratulatory and pleased to have done as well as they did.

    Russia didn't stop. WAGNER instituted the genesis of what we see today by throwing themselves against Bakhmut. Now Avdiivka and, soon, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. This will work to Putin's general satisfaction and ultimate victory as currently projected unless something good changes for Ukraine. I'm increasingly pessimistic that Ukraine can be properly equipped to conduct operationally significant operations. I'm further unconvinced they'd possess the nuanced finesse/acumen and skill at the battalion/brigade level to successfully execute such operations.

    I feel very bleak.
    Last edited by S2; 07 Jul 24,, 05:52.

    Leave a comment:


  • kato
    replied
    I've yet to see this mentioned anywhere in english outside the usual Ukrainian western-aimed press outlets (Euromaidan, Kyiv Independent etc).

    CCTV (chinese) has some videos on youtube. Looks to be just a parade participation so far - and it's the same chinese drill unit that already participated in the independence day parade in Belarus in 2018 and 2019. Just with less flags this time.

    According to Xinhua that contingent is also the only one China is sending to Belarus currently. If there actually was anything (significant) planned beyond that then Xinhua would probably have mentioned it when reporting on Xi Jinping meeting Lukashenko in Astana last thursday. Or when reporting on the Belarussian foreign minister visiting China right now.

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Found this today. Can't find corresponding English sites. Chinese sites are the only ones reporting this. Google translation of the following

    China has announced the participation the training and military exercises in Belarus. The First Regiment of the famed "Four Moons" Army, along with 200 cars and big guns. The People's Liberation Army is announce the high spirit of the Chinese People in supporting the spirit and the value of defence Belarus. China supports Belarus People. Values peace and prosperity Belarus.


    Link for those who reads Chinese. Will post further when I find English reporting this.
    Well, April's Fool became reality.

    Chinese troops arrive in Belarus to lay foundation for joint training of forces – photos



    Leave a comment:


  • tbm3fan
    replied
    Possible coup attempt...

    Ukraine thwarts alleged coup attempt, security service says

    CNN —
    Ukraine has foiled an alleged plot to overthrow the government that “would have played into Russia’s hands,” security officials in the war-torn country said Monday.

    In a Telegram post, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed the alleged coup organizers planned to trigger a riot in Kyiv on June 30 as a distraction to seize control of the Ukrainian parliament and remove the military and political leadership from power.

    It is unclear if those accused have any connection with Russia, which has waged a devastating full-scale invasion against its southwestern neighbor for nearly two and a half years.

    Four suspects have been identified, with two held in custody, the SBU said. They face up to 10 years in prison if found guilty. The SBU said it seized weapons and ammunition, as well as cellphones, computers and other records “with evidence of criminal action.”

    According to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office, the alleged coup leader rented a hall with a capacity of 2,000 people and recruited military personnel and armed guards from private companies to “carry out the seizure” of parliament. It is unclear if prosecutors are seeking any more suspects.

    “To implement the criminal plan, the main organizer involved several accomplices—representatives of the community organizations from Kyiv, Dnipro, and other regions,” the SBU said.

    The alleged scheme in Kyiv comes as Russia has made slow but steady battlefield gains in recent months, exploiting Ukraine’s diminishing manpower and reliance on the West for weapons – and uncertainty over the future of that military aid.

    Russian forces killed seven people, including three children, in a missile strike on the southern town of Vilniansk Saturday, according to Ukrainian officials, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to appeal for more long-range weapons.

    “I am grateful to all partners who are helping. And the decisions we need must be accelerated. Any delay in decisions in this war means losing human lives,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

    Concerns have grown over the future of US military support for Ukraine with the potential for another Donald Trump presidency on the horizon.

    During last week’s presidential debate, Trump questioned whether the United States should continue to fund Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

    Trump’s comments on the war in Ukraine were “worrying,” Ukrainian politician Oleksiy Goncharenko told CNN.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/europ...hnk/index.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Gun Grape
    replied
    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    GPS jamming? Poorly designed targeting system & software? Poor operator training? Poorly designed and built weapon systems?

    Its the Russian Version of JDAM-ER. So Wings not deploying properly,,weapon released early, or Weapons released from one aircraft to close together and bumping each other.

    Ours have the same issues but the failure rate is around 5%

    For as many as they are dropping 38 failures in't a big deal

    Leave a comment:


  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    GPS jamming? Poorly designed targeting system & software? Poor operator training? Poorly designed and built weapon systems?

    More to follow I am sure.

    The Washington Post obtains evidence of Russian glide bombs falling on Russian territory – infographic (yahoo.com)


    The Washington Post obtains evidence of Russian glide bombs falling on Russian territory – infographic

    Ukrainska Pravda
    Mon, July 1, 2024 at 2:06 AM EDTˇ4 min read



    The Washington Post has obtained internal documents from the authorities of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast which confirm that glide bombs launched by the Russians on Ukraine have fallen on Russian territory. The documents specify the locations where the bombs fell and address issues regarding the defusing of bombs and evacuation in the event of an emergency.

    Details: The document indicates that at least 38 bombs, attributed to recent territorial gains by Russia, fell in Belgorod Oblast on the border with Ukraine between April 2023 and April 2024, although most of them did not explode.

    Additionally, at least four bombs fell on Belgorod itself, a regional centre with a population of about 400,000 people. Another seven were found in the surrounding suburbs. The highest number, 11, fell in the border Graivoron district, where some could not be located due to the "difficult operational situation".

    Initially intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence and passed on to The Washington Post, the document contains a table of incidents with references to emergency decrees for bomb disposal and evacuation and was produced by the emergency department of the city of Belgorod.




    Most of the bombs were discovered by civilians – forest rangers, farmers, or residents of nearby villages. In most cases, the Russian Defence Ministry did not know when the bombs were launched, indicating that some of them might have been there for several days.

    Independent Russian media outlet Astra confirmed that many of the incidents described in the document correspond with information it had received from local authorities and reports in local media.

    Local authorities generally remain silent about these incidents, describing them only as "accidents," blaming Ukrainian attacks, or simply not reporting the various explosions in the region, especially recently.

    Astra has estimated that Russia accidentally dropped over a hundred bombs on its own territory and on occupied areas in the east of Ukraine over the past four months – the same period when there was a significant increase in the use of glide bombs.

    The Russian government did not respond to The Washington Post’s request for comment on the document or the reports of the failed use of glide bombs.

    For reference: Glide bombs are a Soviet relic from the Cold War era, designed as "dumb bombs" for dropping on targets. Russia has adapted this large arsenal of unguided bombs to modern warfare by upgrading them with guidance systems known as UMPC (unified planning and correction module) kits – cheap retractable wings and navigation systems.

    This allows Russian Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft to launch them from about 40 miles away, which is unreachable for most Ukrainian air defence systems. The Washington Post notes that glide bombs have put additional pressure on Ukraine's ground-based air defences and played a significant role in the destruction of Avdiivka, which Russian forces captured in mid-February.

    "Ukraine’s best defence against them is the US Patriot surface-to-air missile that can destroy a Russian aircraft before it approaches to release the bomb, but the systems are in short supply," the publication writes.

    At the end of March, the Russian Defence Ministry announced the development of a new, heavier version of the glide bomb, the FAB-3000. It was finally deployed on 21 June against the Ukrainian village of Lyptsi. The Russian military also reported that the production of the lighter FAB-500 and FAB-1500 bombs had been sharply increased.

    Background:
    • In April 2023, the Russian Defence Ministry reported that the explosion in the Russian city of Belgorod was caused by the fall of an aircraft munition during the flight of a Su-34 fighter-bomber belonging to the Russian Aerospace Forces. Military sources said that residential buildings had been damaged as a result of the incident.
    • Also, in January 2024, a Russian munition fell in the village of Petropavlovka (Voronezh Oblast, Russia), located near the border with Ukraine, during a missile attack on Ukraine. A resident in a video said that an entire street had been destroyed as a result of the explosion. He said that a missile had fallen.

    Previously: Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that over the past week alone, Russia had used more than 800 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine. "Ukraine needs necessary forces and means to destroy the carriers of these bombs, mainly the Russian attack aircraft where it is deployed. This step is needed," he said.

    Zelenskyy said that to effectively counter Russian guided aerial bombs, the Ukrainian Armed Forces need not so much Patriot air defence systems as long-range ATACMS missiles.

    Leave a comment:


  • S2
    replied
    More Biden frustration-

    Russia's Most Dangerous Jets Are Parked In The Open A Hundred Miles From Ukraine-Axe, Forbes June 28, 2024

    We somehow at this point must simply hope this administration comes to its senses. While Russia uses glide bombs w/ improved Iranian guidance kits and Iranian drones to pummel Ukrainian land, we've got to remain concerned about...escalation.



    Leave a comment:


  • tbm3fan
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post

    It's a bayonet charge. Nothing special about it. It's WWI tactics and needs little training at that. Just lots of vodka and an anti-retreat machine ghun.
    Heck, German troops were on methamphetamines during the Bulge.

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by Monash View Post
    What is wrong from my perspective (in no particular order) is that:

    1) It's an assumption that the NK army of 2024 has the same level of training, discipline and preparedness as the NK army of the 1970s and 80's i.e. before the collapse of Soviet Union and China's pivot westwards. As far as I can determine there is little or no evidence to support that contention and plenty of evidence to suggest that due to generational economic collapse and chronic mismanagement the overall quality of the average NK soldier has declined significantly over the past 30 to 40 years.
    Your google fu needs work and the famines are over.
    https://www.google.com/search?client...+army+exercses

    Originally posted by Monash View Post
    2) Following on from the above the last significant deployment of NK troops I am aware of was in the 70's and 80's during the bush wars in Africa and even then according to all the records I can find the numbers deployed were limited and restricted mainly to adviser/support roles not front line combat roles. To wit? The Politico website indicates there is no record of NK ever deploying large numbers of combat troops overseas since its formation. So while there may have been upwards 3000 or more men deployed by NK in those theaters (as you state) it would appear those numbers are cumulative and reflect total numbers for the duration of a specific war. I can certainly find no record of significant deployments of NK troops (i.e. up to 5000 men) at once place for one specific mission or for any significant combat casualties ever being suffered by NK troops posted abroad. In fact I could only find evidence for single figure casualties at best.
    Try adding in North Korean construction workers. You did better than me in finding that they actually saw combat. I merely noted their deployment, not any actual combat.

    Originally posted by Monash View Post
    3) And while the Russians might be 'flush with cash and wheat" as you put it the vast bulk of those riches will be directed to the regime in Pyongyang directly for its uses and certainly NOT into the pockets of individual NK soldiers fighting on the front line. That much is a certainty.The average NK soldier? Will be better fed and see some extra NK currency (or if he's lucky rubles) in his pocket as combat pay. But that's about all. And for his (and his officers) perspective? there will be a world of riches sitting around behind the front lines. You can see the problem. Theft and corruption were rampant in the Russia defense forces at the start of the war, why would anyone expect the average NK soldier with his lived life experience to be any better?
    They will be fed by the same Russian logistics train and North Korean troops do get a combat stipend.

    Originally posted by Monash View Post
    4) So while it's still an assumption that they will be sent (because the entire story could just be Kremlin deception effort designed to heighten anxiety in the West's chattering classes and God knows we've al seen enough of those for this to be a possibility!) I also believe it's an assumption that any NK troops deployed to Ukraine now would perform as well as you seem to expect.
    It's a bayonet charge. Nothing special about it. It's WWI tactics and needs little training at that. Just lots of vodka and an anti-retreat machine gun.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 29 Jun 24,, 18:40.

    Leave a comment:


  • Monash
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    What the hell is wrong with you two? You both know enough history to know your points are wrong. Extremely wrong!

    ONE, asingle bomb IS NOT ENOUGH to get any unit to surrender. It took DAYS of B-52 FLIGHTS of carpet bombing to get the Iraqis to surrender. Even day, WEEKS of artillery strikes did NOT render WWI Armies to quit. The Ukrainians have been raining HIMARS on the Russians and the Russians are shrugging them off. The Ukrainians can spend every HIMARS rocket on the November Kilos and the November Kilos will still fight!

    2nd point, the KIms deployed ENTIRE REGIMENTS (3-5000 men) to Africa. None of them quit. They're vetted along the same lines Stalin vetted Soviet Central Armies. The soldier's family is being held hostage.

    3rd point, the Russians are flushed with cash and wheat. Yeah, STARVING and POOR November Kilos NOT wanting to be FED and PAID by the Russians.

    4th point. The November Kilos is a WWI Army, ie bayonet charge. To put this into context, the smallest SOVIET combat echelon is the REGIMENT. The smallest NK (and Chinese) combat echelon is the DIVISION and that's because THEY WILL DO A REGIMENTAL BAYONET CHARGE! Yeah, show that in front of Russian troops!

    You two are better than this!
    What is wrong from my perspective (in no particular order) is that:

    1) It's an assumption that the NK army of 2024 has the same level of training, discipline and preparedness as the NK army of the 1970s and 80's i.e. before the collapse of Soviet Union and China's pivot westwards. As far as I can determine there is little or no evidence to support that contention and plenty of evidence to suggest that due to generational economic collapse and chronic mismanagement the overall quality of the average NK soldier has declined significantly over the past 30 to 40 years.

    2) Following on from the above the last significant deployment of NK troops I am aware of was in the 70's and 80's during the bush wars in Africa and even then according to all the records I can find the numbers deployed were limited and restricted mainly to adviser/support roles not front line combat roles. To wit? The Politico website indicates there is no record of NK ever deploying large numbers of combat troops overseas since its formation. So while there may have been upwards 3000 or more men deployed by NK in those theaters (as you state) it would appear those numbers are cumulative and reflect total numbers for the duration of a specific war. I can certainly find no record of significant deployments of NK troops (i.e. up to 5000 men) at once place for one specific mission or for any significant combat casualties ever being suffered by NK troops posted abroad. In fact I could only find evidence for single figure casualties at best.

    3) And while the Russians might be 'flush with cash and wheat" as you put it the vast bulk of those riches will be directed to the regime in Pyongyang directly for its uses and certainly NOT into the pockets of individual NK soldiers fighting on the front line. That much is a certainty.The average NK soldier? Will be better fed and see some extra NK currency (or if he's lucky rubles) in his pocket as combat pay. But that's about all. And from his (and his officers) perspective? there will be a world of riches sitting around behind the front lines. You can see the problem. Theft and corruption were rampant in the Russia defense forces at the start of the war, why would anyone expect the average NK soldier with his lived life experience to be any better?

    4) So while it's still an assumption that they will be sent (because the entire story could just be Kremlin deception effort designed to heighten anxiety in the West's chattering classes and God knows we've al seen enough of those for this to be a possibility!) I also believe it's an assumption that any NK troops deployed to Ukraine now would perform as well as you seem to expect.

    But as always happy to be proven wrong Colonel if you can locate the evidence. I've tried and couldn't.
    Last edited by Monash; 30 Jun 24,, 01:19.

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    What the hell is wrong with you two? You both know enough history to know your points are wrong. Extremely wrong!

    ONE, asingle bomb IS NOT ENOUGH to get any unit to surrender. It took DAYS of B-52 FLIGHTS of carpet bombing to get the Iraqis to surrender. Even day, WEEKS of artillery strikes did NOT render WWI Armies to quit. The Ukrainians have been raining HIMARS on the Russians and the Russians are shrugging them off. The Ukrainians can spend every HIMARS rocket on the November Kilos and the November Kilos will still fight!

    2nd point, the KIms deployed ENTIRE REGIMENTS (3-5000 men) to Africa. None of them quit. They're vetted along the same lines Stalin vetted Soviet Central Armies. The soldier's family is being held hostage.

    3rd point, the Russians are flushed with cash and wheat. Yeah, STARVING and POOR November Kilos NOT wanting to be FED and PAID by the Russians.

    4th point. The November Kilos is a WWI Army, ie bayonet charge. To put this into context, the smallest SOVIET combat echelon is the REGIMENT. The smallest NK (and Chinese) combat echelon is the DIVISION and that's because THEY WILL DO A REGIMENTAL BAYONET CHARGE! Yeah, show that in front of Russian troops!

    You two are better than this!

    Leave a comment:

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