Originally posted by TopHatter
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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War
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Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
I'll take MI6's figures just on general principles.“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostAgain, there is ONLY one metric that matters. Thoise Russians still shooting at the Ukrainians. Anything else is a dick measuring contest. If there are Russians still shooting back at the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians ain't shooting enough of them.
Of course that hasn't happened, but this is more than just an either-or situation here:
Russian casualties are having a measurable effect on the Russian war effort. This can be seen in their battlefield performance to date. Namely, the great big Russian bear is struggling mightily in its own backyard against a supposed "corrupt, demoralized and weak" foe that should have folded in a matter of hours or days.
Increasingly desperate Russian efforts to recruit more manpower for the war are not those of a confident winning team. That's a pretty darn significant metric right there.
Russia about to 'run out of steam' in Ukraine, British spy chief says
(Reuters) - Russia's military is likely to start an operational pause of some kind in Ukraine in the coming weeks, giving Kyiv a key opportunity to strike back, Britain's spy chief said on Thursday.
Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) known as MI6, also estimated that about 15,000 Russian troops had been killed so far in its war in Ukraine, adding that was "probably a conservative estimate."
"I think they're about to run out of steam," Moore said, addressing the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, adding that the Russian military would increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower and materiel over the next few weeks.
"They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back."
Nearly five months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Kyiv hopes that Western weapons, especially longer-range missiles such as U.S. HIMARS which Kyiv has deployed in recent weeks, will allow it to launch a counterattack in coming weeks and recapture Russian-occupied territory.
Moore underscored the need for Ukraine to show the war was winnable — both to preserve high Ukrainian morale but also to stiffen the resolve of the West as concerns mount about European energy shortages during the coming winter.
"It's important, I think, to the Ukrainians themselves that they demonstrate their ability to strike back. And I think that will be very important for their continuing high morale," Moore said.
"I also think, to be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign by the Ukrainians. Because we are about to go into a pretty tough winter and ... I don't want it to sound like a character from 'Game of Thrones.' But winter is coming.
"And clearly in that atmosphere with the sort of pressure on gas supplies and all the rest, we're in for a tough time," Moore said.
The prospect of a Russian disruption of European energy supplies is one of the biggest global economic and political risks arising from the war. European countries fear they could face shortages next winter, if Russia cuts back deliveries during warm months when they typically replenish storage tanks.
Moore said the toll from Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine was mainly being felt in poorer, rural communities, and that Putin was not yet recruiting forces for the conflict from middle-class areas of St. Petersburg or Moscow.
"These are poor kids from rural parts of Russia. They're from blue-collar towns in Siberia. They are disproportionately from ethnic minorities. And these are his cannon fodder," Moore said.
Asked if he knew about Putin's health, Moore said: "There's no evidence that Putin is suffering from serious ill-health."
__________“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostSir, I don't know about that. You're presenting a false dilemma. I'd say that casualty figures do in fact matter. In order for the shooting to have stopped, Russia will have had to have abandoned Ukraine entirely and the war is over.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostRussian casualties are having a measurable effect on the Russian war effort. This can be seen in their battlefield performance to date. Namely, the great big Russian bear is struggling mightily in its own backyard against a supposed "corrupt, demoralized and weak" foe that should have folded in a matter of hours or days.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostIncreasingly desperate Russian efforts to recruit more manpower for the war are not those of a confident winning team. That's a pretty darn significant metric right there.
The Ukrainians have managed crap all to reduce combat pressure. To say how many men they killed is just a dick measuring contest.
Even the Ukrainians are afraid of the day that Putin decides to do meat grinders. The Russians have an immeidate 900K reserve they can throw into that and there's nothing stopping Putin from doing so. Hence, zero attacks on Russian soil.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Jul 22,, 21:47.Chimo
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Originally posted by Ironduke View PostColonel, as a combat engineer, do you think if the Ukrainians hit the Antonovsky Bridge enough with HIMARS, they can render it impassable and keep it in such a state by hitting any potential repair crews?
The damage done in this video is said to be from HIMARS. Overall, relatively minor damage, but one good size hole was put in it.
https://images.dailykos.com/images/1...jpg?1658348749
Road is sitting on top ---> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhov...ic_Power_Plant
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Originally posted by astralis View Postmore and more indications of Russians now using company-sized formations on the offense, to simplify C2 and to reduce the risk of major disasters.
Goes to show that both sides are keeping the engagements small and sustainable.Chimo
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The Ukrainians have managed crap all to reduce combat pressure. To say how many men they killed is just a dick measuring contest.
the stakes are considerably lower now, and that's directly because there's a shit ton of Russian bodies.
on a strategic level, you're right in that the difference between, say, 15000 KIA and 12000 KIA would be a dick-measuring contest.
but between 15000 KIA and 1500 KIA? big difference. Putin wouldn't have shrunk his immediate operational objectives with only 1500 KIA.
Even the Ukrainians are afraid of the day that Putin decides to do meat grinders. The Russians have an immeidate 900K reserve they can throw into that and there's nothing stopping Putin from doing so. Hence, zero attacks on Russian soil.
what they're not striking are Russian civilians.
because Putin can only do meat grinders with the assent of the Russian people. he's not sure he has that assent. that is ultimately what is stopping Putin from doing this.Last edited by astralis; 21 Jul 22,, 23:03.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Originally posted by astralis View Postthey're not fighting in the suburbs of Kyiv, right? no more major cities under siege.
the stakes are considerably lower now, and that's directly because there's a shit ton of Russian bodies.
Originally posted by astralis View Poston a strategic level, you're right in that the difference between, say, 15000 KIA and 12000 KIA would be a dick-measuring contest.
but between 15000 KIA and 1500 KIA? big difference. Putin wouldn't have shrunk his immediate operational objectives with only 1500 KIA.
Originally posted by astralis View Posteh...we know the Ukrainians have struck Russian soil.
what they're not striking are Russian civilians.
Originally posted by astralis View Postbecause Putin can only do meat grinders with the assent of the Russian people. he's not sure he has that assent. that is ultimately what is stopping Putin from doing this.
Chimo
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostThe West has been constantly wrong on how much the Russians could take. I'm counting on the fact that the Russians can and will go full in. It's just a question of when. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Anything else is just propaganda.
Sure Putin can put Russia on a war footing and order the mobilization of the sons of the middle class & urban elites he's kept out of the war until now but only at huge political cost (and risk) to himself. But even if he takes that risk where is the ballistic armor, fighting vehicles, electronics etc those troops are supposed to be equipped with coming from? And how long will it take him to get those troops 'up to speed' because given how many there are (and who they are) if Putin just sends them into combat carrying recently de-greased Mosins & driving around in confiscated mini vans after 6 weeks of basic training word WILL get back home. And he risks falling if it does.
So yes, on paper the Russians reserves are an obvious threat but then 5 months ago on paper so was the invasion force Putin started the war with! I get the fact Russia has the potential to draw upon enormous reserves of manpower but nothing I've seen since the war started tells me the Russian Ministry of Defense is capable of managing or sustaining that kind of operation.Last edited by Monash; 22 Jul 22,, 07:17.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostSo yes, on paper the Russians reserves are an obvious threat but then 5 months ago on paper so was the invasion force Putin started the war with! I get the fact Russia has the potential to draw upon enormous reserves of manpower but nothing I've seen since the war started tells me the Russian Ministry of Defense is capable of managing or sustaining that kind of operation.
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by Monash View PostSo yes, on paper the Russians reserves are an obvious threat but then 5 months ago on paper so was the invasion force Putin started the war with! I get the fact Russia has the potential to draw upon enormous reserves of manpower but nothing I've seen since the war started tells me the Russian Ministry of Defense is capable of managing or sustaining that kind of operation.
The Reserves will go into war the way we've gone to war for over 6000 years. They will walk and Russia has well over 2 million AK74s. They've also got a surplus of 5.56AK rounds that they can't get rid of. They will carry their food and once they're out, they will be shipped canned food plus whatever livestock, dogs, and cats they can get. And they will be fed into meatgrinders. There's zero problems getting supplies to the border. It's inside the UKR that things are getting messy but it ain't that messy that they can't feed troops.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 22 Jul 22,, 01:45.Chimo
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou're over thinking this. 5 months ago, if they fought the war we thought they will fight, they would at least be pushing the Ukrainian Army out of the Donbass. They achieved strategic and operational surprise but they went and fucked it up by chasing impossible objectives.
The Reserves will go into war the way we've gone to war for over 6000 years. They will walk and Russia has well over 2 million AK74s. They've also got a surplus of 5.56AK rounds that they can't get rid of. They will carry their food and once they're out, they will be shipped canned food plus whatever livestock, dogs, and cats they can get. And they will be fed into meatgrinders. There's zero problems getting supplies to the border. It's inside the UKR that things are getting messy but it ain't that messy that they can't feed troops.
For all he is dictator Putin doesn't have the internal security logistics at his disposal to become another Stalin. Putin's political existence basically depends of maintaining the 'good life' for the citizens of Moscow and St Petersberg & maybe one or two other strategically or politically important cities (although the next 10 largest Russian cities combined don't have the population of those first 2).
If he does what your suggesting he will lose the support of those cities in short order and there are plenty of other would be Putin's standing in the wings ready to take him down should he give them an opening). 'Popular' support is what keeps him in power. A general mobilization will destroy that and Putin knows it. He's had months to initiate a mobilization and hasn't even started, instead relying on rural press ganging to fill the ranks supplemented by any other bodies he can scrape up. As it stands it would take the threat of imminent military collapse to change his mind and there's no sign of that happening yet either.Last edited by Monash; 22 Jul 22,, 07:16.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
“My logisticians are a humorless lot . . . they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” – Alexander the Great (Attributed but probably a myth)If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostWith respect, I think your underestimating the reaction of the Russia's elites to having their children used as cannon fodder. Marching 900,000 men into Ukraine armed with nothing than an AK47 and a bad attitude might win Russia the war but only at the cost of tens of thousands of KIA.
Nitpick: AK74s and AKMs, not AK47s. The Soviets had long since abandoned the 7.62x39 and went to the 5.54x39.
Originally posted by Monash View PostFor all he is dictator Putin doesn't have the internal security logistics at his disposal to become another Stalin. Putin's political existence basically depends of maintaining the 'good life' for the citizens of Moscow and St Petersberg & maybe one or two other strategically or politically important cities (although the next 10 largest Russian cities combined don't have the population of those first 2).
If he does what your suggesting he will lose the support of those cities in short order and there are plenty of other would be Putin's standing in the wings ready to take him down should he give them an opening). 'Popular' support is what keeps him in power. A general mobilization will destroy that and Putin knows it. He's had months to initiate a mobilization and hasn't even started, instead relying on rural press ganging to fill the ranks supplemented by any other bodies he can scrape up. As it stands it would take the threat of imminent military collapse to change his mind and there's no sign of that happening yet either.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 22 Jul 22,, 04:32.Chimo
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