2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

Also calling up the reserves does not mean Putin is automatically met with political resistance. That might start when the body bags start coming home but if it's lead by a victory parade, you can forget about him getting replaced.

[Goatboy]

A quick citation on how many ATACMS are left in inventory.

Fewer than 3,000 ATACMS rockets are still in US stockpiles and a next generation rocket of this type is not due for another year or more, according to Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program and co-head of the Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security in Washington
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/opini...man/index.html

So, call it 2,500? Should be able to part with a few hundred? Maybe initiate a Kherson counteroffensive with a barrage of these, 16 batteries hit Russian ammo dumps and command centers hard, the ones that have now been moved out of range of the shorter range HIMARS rockets, hit the Kerch bridge a few times.

[Chunder]

For the U.S. I'd think 2500 isn't really that many.

[Goatboy]

For the U.S. I'd think 2500 isn't really that many.

The HIMARS rocket replacement, the PrSM, is slated to enter service in 2023 or 2024 I think. Not sure we need to worry about depleting our inventory of ATAMCS since they both use the same launcher.

[Chunder]

In service is different from in service with numbers.
guess what else is 300km? Taiwan to West Taiwan.

[Albany Rifles]

“My logisticians are a humorless lot . . . they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” – Alexander the Great (Attributed but probably a myth)

But true the world round....

[Albany Rifles]

A quick citation on how many ATACMS are left in inventory.

Fewer than 3,000 ATACMS rockets are still in US stockpiles and a next generation rocket of this type is not due for another year or more, according to Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program and co-head of the Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security in Washington
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/opini...man/index.html

So, call it 2,500? Should be able to part with a few hundred? Maybe initiate a Kherson counteroffensive with a barrage of these, 16 batteries hit Russian ammo dumps and command centers hard, the ones that have now been moved out of range of the shorter range HIMARS rockets, hit the Kerch bridge a few times.

I can tell you right now that number is way off. We produced only 3700. Fired of close to 1300 in combat and testing. Of the remainder, many are not in American hands. 10 nations use ATACMS. I tell you right now, the US is not going to move ATACMS out of the Pacific theater...plus we have to keep a big chunk for war reserves so most in US possession have been spoken for in war plans. Don't forget the Marines have replaced their armor and some artillery with HIMARS and ATACMS are critical to their plans in case needed in the Pacific.

Plus many need service life extension upgrades in order to be usable.

Ukraine's best bet is to see if they can get some of the South Korean license-built ones from their production runs.

From where I sit...and I could be wrong but I have pretty decent insight...I'd expect to see F-16s in Ukrainian livery before ATACMS. Like I said, I could be wrong but I don't think I am.

[Albany Rifles]

In service is different from in service with numbers.
guess what else is 300km? Taiwan to West Taiwan.

And they enter production...not service. They will get a low rate initial production...LRIP...number out the door and turned over to operational units for field testing. So far the firings have been done in fairly stable, controlled environments. Only after successful LRIP operational testing will full production begin.

I'm looking at late 2024 at the earliest before entering regular service...and then there has to be a build up of stocks.

[TopHatter]

Zelenskiy says no ceasefire without recovering land lost to Russia
(Reuters) -Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a ceasefire with Russia without reclaiming lost territories would only prolong the war, according to an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday.

He warned that a ceasefire that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territories seized since the invasion in February would only encourage an even wider conflict, giving Moscow an opportunity to replenish and rearm for the next round.

Zelenskiy also spoke about U.S.-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), saying, "the Western supplies of Himars, while making a material difference, are much lower than what Ukraine needs to turn the tide."

"Freezing the conflict with the Russian Federation means a pause that gives the Russian Federation a break for rest," the Wall Street Journal reported, citing comments by Zelenskiy. (https://on.wsj.com/3v9cOcQ)

He said, "Society believes that all the territories must be liberated first, and then we can negotiate about what to do and how we could live in the centuries ahead".

"A more pressing need is air-defense systems that could prevent Russia from raining long-range missiles on otherwise peaceful cities hundreds of miles from the front lines," Zelenskiy added.

Referring to the deal signed with Russia to reopen grain exports Zelenskiy said, "Diplomatic concessions to Moscow might stabilize the markets somewhat, but would only provide a temporary respite and boomerang in the future."

Russia and Ukraine signed a landmark deal on Friday to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports, raising hopes that an international food crisis aggravated by the Russian invasion can be eased.
______

[Goatboy]

I can tell you right now that number is way off. We produced only 3700. Fired of close to 1300 in combat and testing. Of the remainder, many are not in American hands. 10 nations use ATACMS. I tell you right now, the US is not going to move ATACMS out of the Pacific theater...plus we have to keep a big chunk for war reserves so most in US possession have been spoken for in war plans. Don't forget the Marines have replaced their armor and some artillery with HIMARS and ATACMS are critical to their plans in case needed in the Pacific.

Plus many need service life extension upgrades in order to be usable.

Ukraine's best bet is to see if they can get some of the South Korean license-built ones from their production runs.

From where I sit...and I could be wrong but I have pretty decent insight...I'd expect to see F-16s in Ukrainian livery before ATACMS. Like I said, I could be wrong but I don't think I am.

Damn, oh well. I suppose it was too good to be true.

[Officer of Engineers]

Zelenskiy says no ceasefire without recovering land lost to Russia

He warned that a ceasefire that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territories seized since the invasion in February would only encourage an even wider conflict, giving Moscow an opportunity to replenish and rearm for the next round.

A strategic thinker he is not. The next round is a 500,000 man invasion force (same as us in the Kuwait War) with a fully Chinese armed military aimed at the whole of the UKR. Be prepared to see Keiv turn into a meatgrinder, chewing up 10s of 1000s of men.

It doesn't matter if the Russians retained newly conquered territory or not. They won't be deterred until a Russian army is annhilated on the battlefield.

"A more pressing need is air-defense systems that could prevent Russia from raining long-range missiles on otherwise peaceful cities hundreds of miles from the front lines," Zelenskiy added.

Asking for PATRIOTS.

[astralis]

A strategic thinker he is not. The next round is a 500,000 man invasion force (same as us in the Kuwait War) with a fully Chinese armed military aimed at the whole of the UKR. Be prepared to see Keiv turn into a meatgrinder, chewing up 10s of 1000s of men.

It doesn't matter if the Russians retained newly conquered territory or not. They won't be deterred until a Russian army is annhilated on the battlefield.

not sure what other answer he could give. Right now Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity to annihilate an entire Russian army, short of complete morale collapse.

[Officer of Engineers]

not sure what other answer he could give. Right now Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity to annihilate an entire Russian army, short of complete morale collapse.

It's just another chalk mark not to believe anything he says. His credibility is already taken a dive with the professionals. If he's not careful, and he's not, the average Joe on the street would be hearing him cry the wrong wolf once too often.

[Monash]

A strategic thinker he is not. The next round is a 500,000 man invasion force (same as us in the Kuwait War) with a fully Chinese armed military aimed at the whole of the UKR. Be prepared to see Keiv turn into a meatgrinder, chewing up 10s of 1000s of men.

It doesn't matter if the Russians retained newly conquered territory or not. They won't be deterred until a Russian army is annhilated on the battlefield.

Asking for PATRIOTS.

In part it could simply be that such statements are implicit in the politics of war. Ukraine is involved in a major war that has seen its entire population and economy mobilized to fight off the Russians the outcome of which is as yet undecided. In the meantime thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have been killed, injured or made prisoners in Russia. Zelenskiy's political position is by no means guaranteed. If he starts sprouting off now about the 'need to compromise' or 'territorial concessions will have to be made' etc how would the Ukrainian public and Parliament react?

For that matter how would the public of most nations react to such statements in the middle of a war with the outcome as yet undecided? I can't see any Western leaders including the US President publicly acknowledging that territory (or whatever is at stake in a war) may have to be conceded to an aggressor mid conflict. In fact I cant see any political leader making such a statement until the strategic situation has shifted to the point where their own generals are telling them the war is probably unwinnable. And we're not at that point yet in Ukraine.

Until we are? I can understand Zelenskiy being 'gung-ho' in his public statements, its a central part of his job. In fact at this point hand wringing and halfhearted speeches would probably just result in him losing office. Same as it would in most democracies. What he thinks privately at this point?

[Officer of Engineers]

In part it could simply be that such statements are implicit in the politics of war. Ukraine is involved in a major war that has seen its entire population and economy mobilized to fight off the Russians the outcome of which is as yet undecided. In the meantime thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have been killed, injured or made prisoners in Russia. Zelenskiy's political position is by no means guaranteed. If hes starts sprouting off now about the 'need to compromise' or 'territorial concession will have to be made' etc how would the Ukrainian public and Parliament react?

He's already compromising. Two months ago, he was making speaches about recovering the Crimea, DNR, and LNR. Today, it's pre-24 Feb.

For that matter how would the public of most nations react to such statements in the middle of a war with the outcome as yet undecided? I can't see any Western leaders including the US President publicly acknowledging that territory (or whatever is at stake in a war) may have to be conceded to an aggressor mid conflict. In fact I cant see any political leader making such a statement until the strategic situation has shifted to the point where their own generals are telling them the war is probably unwinnable. And we're not at that point yet in Ukraine.

I'm not advocating him to offer concession. I'm advocating that he needs to tell the truth. To have any chance at peace, he has to destroy a Russian army in the UKR. Not push it back to pre-24 Feb but to destroy a Russian army. Maybe not so specific militarily but he could say that the Ukrainians must destroy the enemy wherever he is in the UKR.

There will be a round 3. Pushing the Russians out won't prevent it. Destroying a Russian army would but alas, that is not militarily possible at this moment. Hence, it's just falsehood that pushing the Russians back to pre-24 Feb lines would deter them in the future.

Until we are are? I can understand Zelenskiy being 'gung-ho' in his public statements, its a central part of his job. In fact at this point hand wringing and halfhearted speeches would probably just result in him losing office. Same as it would in most democracies. What he thinks privately at this point?

"I'm getting way too old for this shit."