2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

Given the open terrain in that sector and constant US/NATO over watch that's would be kind of hard to pull off.

The old classic, the feign retreat. At this point, I cannot tell you exactly where the proposed Russian KZ is but I can definetely see a 2nd line.

[Officer of Engineers]

I have to wonder what assistance NATO is giving the Ukrainians at that kind of level. For example I find it hard to believe there isn't a 'war room' set up somewhere in Western Europe shadowing Ukrainian and Russia deployments in real time and funneling advice and recommendations strategies to the Ukrainians military in Kiev. For that matter there has to be very high level liaison in Kiev itself.

Officially none. That would make us legal beligerants. We're issueing orders to kill Russians.

[Monash]

Officially none. That would make us legal beligerants. We're issueing orders to kill Russians.

I would suggest the correct term would be 'making some suggestions'. No orders involved.

[Officer of Engineers]

I would suggest the correct term would be 'making some suggestions'. No orders involved.

We do alert the Ukainians about high value targets but we are not involved in their planning. They can do whatever they like but we have zero input on how they execute their attacks. That is one step too much.

[Albany Rifles]

Normally, yes but the Russian campaign in Donesk hasn't exactly followed modern military doctrine. Russian strategy seems to have been based using massive (dumb) artillery barrages to effect very limited territorial gains by small infantry formations. No breakthroughs and exploitation, just grind. Their tubes are literally doing all the heavy lifting and based on all reports are in battery and executing fire missions for days if not weeks at a time. Plus the Uki's have been using HIMARs to take out their munition dumps. Combine all that together and you have ammunition shortages, lots of worn out barrels and exhausted gunners. So a longer down time than you'd expect from NATO class armies (or for that matter the 'old' Russian army everyone thought they knew) might well be the result. And as we all know the Ukrainians have pretty much been signalling their intentions on the Kherson front for weeks if not months now. Russia has to have responded somehow.



No doubt about it.

Ya know...I think we are basically saying the same thing but just from different perspectives. Comes a point where equipment breaks and you are forced to take a knee.

[Albany Rifles]

The UKR needs more than that. She needs a General Staff with vision on how to fight this war. I don't know how many times I see perfectly good oppertunities goto waste simply because they had not planned on good fortune. Ok, never mind marching all the way to a CAA HQ early on in the war. Why isn't there a general push right now with the forces in place now that guns fire had died down. Hug the shit out of the Russians (danger close) before they could bring their guns back to bear.

In total agreement with this...but we both know this is a generational task. The Ukrainians cannot build an effective general staff overnight. It will take several generations of staff officers attending Western military staff colleges until they can get up on their own feet. Remember this effort at overhaul has only been ongoing for 8 years since the 2014 debacle. We have seen some success with the NCO and junior officer ranks but the mentoring of staffs Western guys take for granted just doesn't exist in Ukraine. I know in World War 2 we reduced our CGSOC from 12 months to 3 weeks for a massively mobilizing military. But they were being plugged into staffs with senior officers with 2 decades of staff experience.

I see some class & staff changes to the Marshall School in Oberammergau which will be a staff school and more for the Ukrainians. The Baltics got a leg up because they had been sending folks to Leavenworth immediately after the Wall came down. This is going to take a decade or 2.

[Ironduke]

I'm very leery of a Russian trap.

Who's trapping whom?

Seems to me west bank Dnipro is a very logistically precarious piece of territory for the Russians to try to hold. Snake Island writ large.

So the Russians have a ferry, and maybe one pontoon bridge (which can be hit with with HIMARS and M270s). Everything else goes over the road and rail bridge on the Nova Kakhovka dam (traffic for which coming and going can also be hit). The Ukrainians just took out a 40-car train carrying resupply and reinforcement to Kherson. Looks to me like a great place to divert Russian attention and attrite their resources and materiel.

[astralis]

interesting piece from the WSJ.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...ms-11659519001

Now, the focus of the war is increasingly shifting to the south. Russia has begun transferring some of its best units from Donbas to Kherson. Ukraine, meanwhile, is busy training new brigades that would bolster existing forces and provide the manpower for the planned offensive. The majority of soldiers in Ukraine’s front-line units have been mobilized since the initial invasion, often with minimal training. “Everyone’s motivation is sky high, but their skills are usually zero,” said one front-line commander.

...

In Russian-occupied villages of Kherson closer to the front lines, no more than one-tenth of the prewar population has remained, said Lt. Col. Shatalov. “The only people left on the other side are those who love the Russian world and want to live under it,” he said, pointing out that some locals were directing Russian fire on his men when the battalion seized the village of Potiomkine in late June.

That small push forward involved heavy fighting and significant casualties. “It took us three days just for the village of Potiomkine. People must understand what kind of fantastic reserves must be accumulated for a rapid move into the depth of the enemy lines, crossing 100 kilometers in a few days,” Lt. Col. Shatalov said.

[Officer of Engineers]

Who's trapping whom?

Seems to me west bank Dnipro is a very logistically precarious piece of territory for the Russians to try to hold. Snake Island writ large.

Nice piece of bait, isn't it?

So the Russians have a ferry, and maybe one pontoon bridge (which can be hit with with HIMARS and M270s). Everything else goes over the road and rail bridge on the Nova Kakhovka dam (traffic for which coming and going can also be hit). The Ukrainians just took out a 40-car train carrying resupply and reinforcement to Kherson. Looks to me like a great place to divert Russian attention and attrite their resources and materiel.

If you, an internet observer, can think of this, don't you think the Russians already figured this out?

[Officer of Engineers]

interesting piece from the WSJ.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...ms-11659519001

A lot of amateur mistakes here. If you need to go 100s of kms in a few days. Fix pockets of resistance in place, flatten with artillery, bypass, and move on.

[astralis]

also an indicator that a fairly sizable portion of the Ukrainian reserves with combat experience have been attrited -- or at least, trench warfare in the Donbas doesn't really give the experience needed for maneuver warfare.

[Ironduke]

If you, an internet observer, can think of this, don't you think the Russians already figured this out?

I'm sure someone in the Russian command has.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but may your impression is that because the obvious is obvious, there is no way the Russians have not thought of this, and are thus not making any mistakes, and doing everything in a well-thought out, sound manner.

Question is whether the impetus to make the decision to attempt to shore up defenses in occupied Kherson is a result of sound military strategy, or unsound political decision making.

[Officer of Engineers]

Seems you have the impression that the because the obvious is obvious, there is no way the Russians have not thought of this, and are thus not making any mistakes, and doing everything in a well-thought out, sound manner.

Question is whether the impetus to make the decision to attempt to shore up defenses in occupied Kherson is a result of sound military strategy, or unsound political decision making.

Do NOT EVER assume the enemy is stupid. He may make stupid mistakes (I have) and you must be ready to exploit stupid BUT ALWAYS assume the enemy is just as smart, or smarter, as you are.

[Ironduke]

Do NOT EVER assume the enemy is stupid. He may make stupid mistakes (I have) and you must be ready to exploit stupid BUT ALWAYS assume the enemy is just as smart, or smarter, as you are.

I'm not assuming anything. I just sense an opportunity for a turkey shoot in a logistically precarious piece of territory.

[Officer of Engineers]

I'm not assuming anything. I just sense an opportunity for a turkey shoot in a logistically precarious piece of territory.

And that is precisely why I smell a trap. Too easy to exploit. Not enough fortified guns in the area for a determined defence but the Russians have ample time to mine the whole place.