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  • I was depressed in Feb. Then I was cautiously adamant that Ukraine may prevail with a bit of help in the late Spring, then resigned at Russian artillery and Russian electronic warfare shutting the UA down in the early summer. Now HIMARS are the "game changer" in turning the tide? Everything is yo-yo-ing around, and even the Pentagon is releasing reports that appear conflicting with reality. It's all hard to digest.
    I was hopeful too in spring, but that was always predicated on Putin deciding to cut his losses for the time being.

    instead, Putin has decided to double down.

    having said that, there's very real limits as to how long Putin can continue "doubling down". he's grinding through the easy reserves now...and the West isn't tapped out on moving Ukraine up the weapon sophistication scale.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • Originally posted by jlvfr View Post
      What about rounds? Any idea on how many were sent?
      To quote something heard in front of Congress in the recent past...that is a non-zero number.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

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      • So Lavrov is now saying Russia is going to have to take over even more of Ukraine, because we've given them long range weapons systems. So now Russia needs more territory to ensure its security from HIMARS and the like.

        https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62231936

        lol
        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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        • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
          So Lavrov is now saying Russia is going to have to take over even more of Ukraine, because we've given them long range weapons systems. So now Russia needs more territory to ensure its security from HIMARS and the like.

          https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62231936

          lol
          By Lavrov's logic, if we supply long range ATACMS, he will then feel it necessary for Russia to occupy all of Ukraine?

          Doesn't Russia need "protection" from HIMARS rockets along its northern border with Ukraine too? Kviv and Kharkiv will need to be occupied.



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          • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post

            By Lavrov's logic, if we supply long range ATACMS, he will then feel it necessary for Russia to occupy all of Ukraine?

            Doesn't Russia need "protection" from HIMARS rockets along its northern border with Ukraine too? Kviv and Kharkiv will need to be occupied.


            "... a piece of Poland would be nice... I mean, necessary for protection."

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            • Originally posted by astralis View Post

              I was hopeful too in spring, but that was always predicated on Putin deciding to cut his losses for the time being.

              instead, Putin has decided to double down.

              having said that, there's very real limits as to how long Putin can continue "doubling down". he's grinding through the easy reserves now...and the West isn't tapped out on moving Ukraine up the weapon sophistication scale.
              Regarding the weapon sophistication scale, maybe the latest Lavrov announcement is a way to pressure the west to not send the long range ATACMS. Is this doubling down a desperation move out of fear, or another excuse for more conquest, or maybe a way to enhance Russia's negotiation strength? I hope it's desperation, not greed although I'm not sure which is more frightening.

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              • It's apparent Russia will try to take everything they can take and hold onto. So I chalk it up to excuse making to try to justify what they're already doing / were going to try to do anyways.

                Also, it's a pathetic attempt to shift the blame for their own actions. Like how a wife beater blames the wife and cries about his bruised knuckles after repeatedly punching his wife in the face. "Look what you did to my knuckles, I'll have to beat you some more!"
                Last edited by Ironduke; 20 Jul 22,, 18:50.
                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                • Lavrov is a diplomat, thus the most likely option is the last one (enhancing negotiation strength). in any case he's merely repeating what Putin said some time ago, that the longer the war drags on, the more Russia will demand. "buy now before the price goes up!"

                  problem is that Putin has also been very clear that his maximalist goals haven't changed. he doesn't -need- an excuse for more conquest. if Ukraine collapsed tomorrow, Putin would eat up as much Ukraine as the army could get its hands on.

                  ATACMS is just the next step. even leaving aside new capabilities, when fighting slows down in winter, that's when logistics chains, training, proper absorption of the already promised weaponry, and standardization of Ukrainian forces can be straightened out. i'll take that over whatever reinforcements the Russians are gonna cobble up. I think the talk of Russia being able to sustain a long war better than Ukraine is a bunch of hooey.

                  Russia just dealt its biggest punch to Ukraine, some 60 BTGs with a 3-1 artillery advantage close to their logistics centers, "fighting the Russian way of war", and all they got was two miserable medium-sized towns. absent some enormous Ukrainian cockup, it's just gonna go downhill for the Russians from there.
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                  • re: sophistication chain:

                    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/sta...34500329979904

                    https://www.defensenews.com/congress...e-us-aircraft/
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      Russia just dealt its biggest punch to Ukraine, some 60 BTGs with a 3-1 artillery advantage close to their logistics centers, "fighting the Russian way of war", and all they got was two miserable medium-sized towns. absent some enormous Ukrainian cockup, it's just gonna go downhill for the Russians from there.
                      This is not the Russian way of war. The Russian Way of War is centre on Fronts with the main fighting echelon as division. They had artillery divisions for Pete sakes. And I have been saying this from day one. You cannot win wars based on battalion as the main fighting echelon. They're using infantry to support fire instead of the reverse. They've taken over 100 years of porven mass fire/maneuver/position military theory and chucked it in favour of Colonial guerrilla/partisan/commando warfare ... and they couldn't even do that right. Colonial war means you get a self contained sabre force to where your enemy isn't expecting. Thus far, the Ukrainians know exactly where and how the Russians are going to hit.

                      This being said, a 900K reserves is not something the Ukrainians can ignore. The Russians have yet to commit to meat grinders.

                      Eric, I also would not put too much into 60 BTG and 3:1 gun odds winning just 2 little towns. Seesaw battles can last months even with overwhelming odds on one side but the other being stubborn. Stalingrad and Kursk are prime examples of massive engagements and little gains when measured day by day but the outcomes were strategically overwhelming and the little day by day gains are ignored.
                      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 20 Jul 22,, 21:45.
                      Chimo

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                      • Regarding ATACMS...guys, there just ain't that many left. Production ended years ago and we shot a metric fuck ton of them in Desert Storm, Iraq & Afghanistan. And not all the missiles stayed in US inventories.

                        There is some chance they could get some from South Korea as they started making them under license we Lockheed Martin is building any more...haven't for over 2 decades.
                        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                        Mark Twain

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                        • Ukrainian pilots should have been training on simulators months ago.

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                          • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post

                            Ukrainian pilots should have been training on simulators months ago.
                            Who says they haven't been?

                            And if they haven't, it's probably because they've been kept in Ukraine until it was clear that the Russian advance had truly stalled out.
                            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              Who says they haven't been?

                              And if they haven't, it's probably because they've been kept in Ukraine until it was clear that the Russian advance had truly stalled out.
                              Really can't see us giving them $100mil airplanes. We don't even have enough to backfill our own requirements. The Poles have to wait to get F-16s to replace the MiG-29s they gave to the Ukrainians while the USAF extend coverage into their airspace while they wait.

                              For air denial, best bang for the buck is still SAMs.
                              Chimo

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                              • This is not the Russian way of war. The Russian Way of War is centre on Fronts with the main fighting echelon as division. They had artillery divisions for Pete sakes. And I have been saying this from day one. You cannot win wars based on battalion as the main fighting echelon. They're using infantry to support fire instead of the reverse. They've taken over 100 years of porven mass fire/maneuver/position military theory and chucked it in favour of Colonial guerrilla/partisan/commando warfare ... and they couldn't even do that right. Colonial war means you get a self contained sabre force to where your enemy isn't expecting. Thus far, the Ukrainians know exactly where and how the Russians are going to hit.
                                I know, this ain’t exactly Bagration. That’s why I put “Russian way of war” in quotation marks. However, what’s happened in the Donbas is significantly closer to that than the FSB raid writ large in Feb and their attempt to play maneuver in March/April. It’s all they can do with their limited numbers of troops and large numbers of artillery.

                                This being said, a 900K reserves is not something the Ukrainians can ignore. The Russians have yet to commit to meat grinders.
                                Given the known issues with Russian logistics and C2, it seems to me that the current numbers are all they can effectively juggle. they can have those sitting in reserve but the way the equipment is being used up, the Russkis will end up with their reserves attacking with T-62s they dug up from some museum.

                                Eric, I also would not put too much into 60 BTG and 3:1 gun odds winning just 2 little towns. Seesaw battles can last months even with overwhelming odds on one side but the other being stubborn. Stalingrad and Kursk are prime examples of massive engagements and little gains when measured day by day but the outcomes were strategically overwhelming and the little day by day gains are ignored.
                                agreed. the Russians have shown more resilience than I gave them credit for. but at the end of the day, I really do think the Russians will go Winchester before the Ukrainians do.
                                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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