NATO membership for Sweden and Finland

[Bigfella]

I was thinking about that too...but then we can see the horrors still able to be committed by hordes of ill-equipped, ill-led Russians.

Finland and Sweden can see that NATO membership would've stopped the Russians cold at the border and almost entirely spared Ukrainian cities and citizens from Russian barbarities.

In Finland's case a a lot of the population lives in a relatively small area not that far from Russia. There isn't quite the strategic depth Ukraine has. They have a lot more motivation to join NATO than Sweden.

Finns are seriously badass. They would be a fine addition to NATO. Also, I REALLY want to see the 1st Armoured division parked as close to St Peasantburg as possible just to piss Russia off.

[Albany Rifles]

Also, I REALLY want to see the 1st Armoured division parked as close to St Peasantburg as possible just to piss Russia off.

Does Britain even have an armoured division anymore?

[TopHatter]

Russia says it would have to 'rebalance' if Finland and Sweden join NATO

LONDON (Reuters) - Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO then Russia would have to "rebalance the situation" with its own measures.

Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which it says aims among other things to degrade Ukraine's military potential and prevent it becoming a bridgehead for a NATO attack, has prompted the two Nordic countries to consider joining the U.S.-led alliance.

If the two countries join, "we'll have to make our western flank more sophisticated in terms of ensuring our security," Peskov told Britain's Sky News.

However, he said Russia would not see such a move as an existential threat, of the kind that might prompt it to consider using nuclear weapons.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and the resulting fighting has caused the deaths of thousands of civilians and soldiers and the devastation of towns and settlements, as well as triggering an unprecedented barrage of coordinated Western sanctions.
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[Albany Rifles]

Russia says it would have to 'rebalance' if Finland and Sweden join NATO

LONDON (Reuters) - Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO then Russia would have to "rebalance the situation" with its own measures.

Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which it says aims among other things to degrade Ukraine's military potential and prevent it becoming a bridgehead for a NATO attack, has prompted the two Nordic countries to consider joining the U.S.-led alliance.

If the two countries join, "we'll have to make our western flank more sophisticated in terms of ensuring our security," Peskov told Britain's Sky News.

However, he said Russia would not see such a move as an existential threat, of the kind that might prompt it to consider using nuclear weapons.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and the resulting fighting has caused the deaths of thousands of civilians and soldiers and the devastation of towns and settlements, as well as triggering an unprecedented barrage of coordinated Western sanctions.
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When the war is over will the Russian economy be in any kind of shape to to "rebalance".

The sanctions appear to really be taking a bite on Russia.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/07/10914...russia-working

[Bigfella]

It will 'rebalance', but that new 'balance' will look a lot weaker than the previous one. In addition to a more unified, better armed and possibly larger NATO Russia will face a more hostile & ultimately much stronger Ukraine.

I also have serious doubts about the survival of Transdnistria. Ukraine & Moldova could likely roll over it in a few days and likely will. No one will want a Russian enclave on their borders if they can remove it.

[Albany Rifles]

It will 'rebalance', but that new 'balance' will look a lot weaker than the previous one. In addition to a more unified, better armed and possibly larger NATO Russia will face a more hostile & ultimately much stronger Ukraine.

I also have serious doubts about the survival of Transdnistria. Ukraine & Moldova could likely roll over it in a few days and likely will. No one will want a Russian enclave on their borders if they can remove it.

Sure would love Kaliningrad....which was NEVER a part of ANY example of Russian statehood...to go back to being a part of Prussia and get split between Poland and Lithuania!

[Bigfella]

I think Sweden's next move depends on what Finland does. Finland is much more keen on joining NATO, but the attitude in Sweden is more "we will if Finland does".

Finland's movement is already having an impact. The Social Democratic party in Sweden, long opponents of NATO membership, have announced their support for it. I suspect that once the Finnish Parliament passes its motion initiating the membership application Sweden will do the same & NATO will fast track the whole process.

If this is all done by the end of April/early May I won't be shocked.

[Bigfella]

Sure would love Kaliningrad....which was NEVER a part of ANY example of Russian statehood...to go back to being a part of Prussia and get split between Poland and Lithuania!

Sounds good.

In the event of a conflict with NATO it is going to be flattened very quickly. As you pointed out, the Poles are beefing up big time & will want to stomp that little bit of Russia ASAP. Don't give the bastards a chance to open up a land corridor.

[TopHatter]

From Air Vectors, great aviation site and current events blog.

One of Putin's stated goals in the war is to restrict the expansion of NATO. As discussed in an article from ECONOMIST.com ("Finland Is Hurtling Towards NATO Membership", 8 April 2022), it appears that Putin has once again miscalculated. In January, when the massing of Russian forces on Ukraine's border could be thought a bluff, Sanna Marin -- Finland's prime minister -- said it was "very unlikely" that Finland would join NATO while she was in office. On 2 April, she sounded a different tune, saying Finland would have to make a decision "this spring." She explained: "Russia isn't the neighbor we thought it was."

Through the Cold War, Finland maintained a careful neutrality, buying arms from both sides, but avoiding alliances. The Soviet Union cast a long shadow over Finland and the consciousness of Finns, the process being mocked as "Finlandization". When the USSR collapsed, the Finns, along with the Swedes, were willing to join the European Union, but continued the policy of military neutrality. That began to shift in 2014, when Russia first attacked Ukraine, with Finland and Sweden intensifying joint exercises and other forms of co-operation with NATO.

In 2019, a bare majority of Finns were opposed to NATO membership. A poll at the end of March 2022 revealed 61% in favor, 16% against, and 23% undecided. All Finnish political parties support it, except for the Left Alliance. It is widely believed that if Sauli Niinisto, Finland's popular president, were to give his formal endorsement, support would grow further.

Both Marin and Niinisto are maintaining a quiet neutrality of their own for the time being, to allow the public discussion to play out. An official report on Finland's security position is to be released, with debate in Parliament following. Assuming the debate is favorable to NATO membership, Parliament and the government will then begin a formal process to that end. President Niinisto believes that a public referendum will not be needed. A decision will be made no later than the end of June, when the NATO summit in Madrid takes place.

There would be no problem on the NATO side, NATO officials saying that that Finland is in fact more "NATO interoperable" -- capable of conducting joint operations alongside other allies -- than some actual members. A special procedure set up in 2014 and activated after Russia's invasion means that Finnish and Swedish envoys now sit at the North Atlantic Council, the alliance's decision-making body, for every meeting relating to the crisis. No NATO member nation, not even Hungary, is expected to vote against Finnish membership.

In Sweden, the debate is moving more slowly -- but Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister, believes Sweden will follow the Finnish lead: "For me, it is inconceivable that we would end up in a situation where the two countries come to different conclusions."

If Finland does join NATO, Russia's border with NATO will more than double. Putin is unlikely to take kindly to that idea, but the Russians would also have to reconsider the security of the Gulf of Finland and the strategic ports around Murmansk. He is certainly aware that NATO, even without US military power backing it up, is more powerful than Russia. Putin, by all appearances, wanted to fragment NATO -- but instead, it is becoming that much more powerful. Link

[Albany Rifles]

Sounds good.

In the event of a conflict with NATO it is going to be flattened very quickly. As you pointed out, the Poles are beefing up big time & will want to stomp that little bit of Russia ASAP. Don't give the bastards a chance to open up a land corridor.

Within 3 years the Poles are going to pretty much look like a franchise of the US DOD.

[Monash]

Sure would love Kaliningrad....which was NEVER a part of ANY example of Russian statehood...to go back to being a part of Prussia and get split between Poland and Lithuania!

Maybe offer the civilian population (such as it is) the opportunity to become a fourth 'Baltic State" rather than unilaterally splitting it up? While waving lots of EU goodies under their nose at the same time of course. EDIT: Doable on paper, perhaps until you look at eh Kaliningrad's stats. A population of just 1 million probably wouldn't cut it as a independent entity, unless its citizens were very determined not to be subsumed into other polities.

[zraver]

Maybe offer the civilian population (such as it is) the opportunity to become a fourth 'Baltic State" rather than unilaterally splitting it up? While waving lots of EU goodies under their nose at the same time of course. EDIT: Doable on paper, perhaps until you look at eh Kaliningrad's stats. A population of just 1 million probably wouldn't cut it as a independent entity, unless its citizens were very determined not to be subsumed into other polities.

The USSR basically expelled everyone out of the city and surrounding area when it created the Oblast. Then they stuffed it full of military assets. Since the fall of the USSR the Russian continue it's use as a military base and keep it chick full of ultra-nationalist. To turn it into a 4th Baltic state would require expelling the population and that would trip Russia's nuclear red line.

[Amled]

https://www.politico.eu/article/swed...ort-nato-bids/

With Finland and Sweden now seriously making serious moves to join NATO,
it seems that The Law of Unforeseen Consequences (or Murphy, take your pick!), has again worked against Putin.
In Finland the public support for NAO membership has jumped from the low ‘30’s to between 60-70%, since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
In Sweden likewise it’s now up around 50%, but the consensus is that if Finland joins, Sweden will do likewise.
But to use the foul tempered bear with a tooth ache (the Ukraine!) metaphor.
It does raise the question if this is really the time to kick it in the gonads (Sweden Finland joining NATO)?
Then again it might be the best of times to get in under NATO umbrella, what with Putin’s war in the Ukraine not exactly going according to plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61066503

[Officer of Engineers]

I have a big question. Is joing NATO an excuse for Sweden and Finland to cut defence budgets?

[TopHatter]

I have a big question. Is joing NATO an excuse for Sweden and Finland to cut defence budgets?

After seeing what Russia has done to Ukraine? I highly doubt that. They'll put their defense budget at the percentage recommended by NATO, at the very least and likely form additional territorial defense units, if for no other reason than to combat the possibility of "little green men" making their way across Finnish and Swedish borders. Sweden in particular has increased their defense spending by $318 million (more on that below)

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin put it succinctly: Russia is “not the neighbor we thought it was.” Those are the words of a small country that has no desire to see a repeat the horrors of the 1940s inflicted upon it, nor the same of what's happening in Ukraine right now and is going to spend money like water to ensure it doesn't happen.