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I'm absolutely sure the Finns would fight like hell, but that's precisely what I'm thinking of, the possibility of some ploy by Putin to queer the pitch, as the Brits would say. It could be something quite minimal, to try to create a technical roadblock to NATO membership.
Maybe Putin does something like say the border markers are a few hundred meters from where they were agreed to after the Continuation War, and shells some empty patch of forest and sends a few hundred troops in as a spoiler action.
I have a feeling that all of NATO (with the obvious exception of Hungary) is sick and tired of Putin's shit and won't allow something so transparent to derail Finland's membership application.
If anything, such an action would probably fast-track things even more.
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks increasingly likely to lead to Finland and Sweden applying to join Nato. But whereas Helsinki appears to be doing so with something resembling gusto, Stockholm is inching towards the western military alliance more reluctantly. As early as December and January, Finnish politicians started a national debate across party lines on how to improve their country’s security given Russia’s sabre-rattling then unprovoked attack on a non-Nato neighbour. The result is likely to be an overwhelming majority in Finland’s parliament in the coming weeks in favour of applying.
By contrast, Sweden’s centre-left government, itself deeply divided on Nato, initially appeared to hope it could dismiss the question of membership. It only started to take it seriously in recent weeks as Finland indicated it was likely to join regardless of what Sweden did, robbing Stockholm of its sole credible alternative: a defence alliance with Helsinki.
The main reason for the differing approaches, experts say, lies in the two countries’ reasons for staying away from Nato up till now and the basis for their longtime neutrality. Finland had its neutrality imposed on it as a way of dealing with the Soviet Union and their shared 1,340km border during the cold war. But for Sweden, neutrality has long been part of its national DNA, giving it an enviable record of not being involved in a conflict for more than 200 years.
“In Sweden, it is an identity issue. Due to the 200-year history of being non-aligned, it sticks in people as a normal thing. Finland has had a dramatic, and sometimes terribly difficult, situation,” says Gunilla Herolf, senior associate research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs.
Jarmo Lindberg, the former head of Finland’s defence, adds simply: “Finns are pragmatic. For Swedes, it’s more ideological.” Geography also plays a role. Finland has a longer border with Russia than Nato in its current form, making the Nordic country acutely aware of the security threat. But for Sweden, with no border with Russia, Finland has historically acted as its buffer zone. The dark joke in Helsinki is that Swedes have for centuries fought their wars to the last Finn.
The differences are apparent in the way each country is moving towards Nato. When Finland’s parliament began discussing potential membership on Wednesday, the mantra across the political spectrum was on how to improve the country’s security. Faced with a Russia that is far more aggressive and unpredictable than Finns had hoped, there is a strong feeling that only Nato’s article 5 guarantee — whereby an attack on one is an attack on all — is strong enough.
But in Sweden the debate mostly revolves around the governing Social Democrat party. The four centre-right parties have been in favour of Nato membership for the past five years while the nationalist Sweden Democrats have said they would vote in favour if Finland decides to join the alliance.
That already gives a majority supporting membership in Sweden’s parliament. But the idea of entering the military alliance without the support of the Social Democrats — winner of every national election for the past century in Sweden — is close to unthinkable.
“It is very much part of the Social Democrat identity — it gave us a special space of manoeuvre in international politics in terms of mediation, peace talks and arms control. That’s the main explanation of why we’re acting so slowly now,” says Anna Wieslander, director for northern Europe at the Atlantic Council think-tank.
Things are now speeding up. The Social Democrats, who only confirmed their opposition to Nato in November, are debating whether to reverse their position with a decision due next month just as a hastily written government report on security policy will be released. The main Social Democrat newspaper, the tabloid Aftonbladet, last week altered its mind and declared its “reluctant” support for membership. Recent opinion polls show 58 per cent of Swedes in favour of joining and 21 per cent against. Most observers in Stockholm expect an application to come in tandem or just after Finland’s ahead of the Nato June summit in Madrid, albeit without passion.
“You don’t see any enthusiasm for this anywhere,” says Herolf. “You see some people saying it goes too quickly. And, of course, it does, but the security situation is as it is.”
___________
I think it's safe to say that if Finland joins, odds are better than average that Sweden will as well.
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
Are there indications that either Sweden or Finland have increased their level of alert? Extra training, recons, deployments?
I've moved several posts over to this thread, you'll find at least a couple postings about Finland's preparations
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
Are there indications that either Sweden or Finland have increased their level of alert? Extra training, recons, deployments?
Both Sweden and Finland; like the rest of Western Europe, have increased their defense spending, Sweden by 40%.
Already back in January Sweden upped their alert status:
The most visible sign was them sending both light and heavy units; including heavy armor and artillery,
to reinforce the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea.
When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin
I have a feeling that all of NATO (with the obvious exception of Hungary) is sick and tired of Putin's shit and won't allow something so transparent to derail Finland's membership application.
If anything, such an action would probably fast-track things even more.
Just to amplify on this point: Putin managed to pull off a masterstroke of subterfuge, deception and all manner of plausibly-deniable fuckery with Crimea back in 2014. OK, well done Vlad, you hoodwinked the entire world and now we can't do jack about it.
Problem is, that sort of big dramatic op usually only works once and then that particular door slams shut, hard. (See also 9/11).
The problem for Putin is, NATO not only learned from 2014 but were also prepared to go on the "offensive" and preempt potential plausibly-deniable fuckery that Putin might attempt (false-flag ops especially) by quickly dumping previously sacred intel into the public domain, loudly and clearly.
So too I suspect there is already plans or at least considerations being given to potential fuckery on Putin's part regarding Finland and her application for NATO membership.
And it won't be "OK, well done Vlad, you hoodwinked us again"
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks increasingly likely to lead to Finland and Sweden applying to join Nato. But whereas Helsinki appears to be doing so with something resembling gusto, Stockholm is inching towards the western military alliance more reluctantly. As early as December and January, Finnish politicians started a national debate across party lines on how to improve their country’s security given Russia’s sabre-rattling then unprovoked attack on a non-Nato neighbour. The result is likely to be an overwhelming majority in Finland’s parliament in the coming weeks in favour of applying.
By contrast, Sweden’s centre-left government, itself deeply divided on Nato, initially appeared to hope it could dismiss the question of membership. It only started to take it seriously in recent weeks as Finland indicated it was likely to join regardless of what Sweden did, robbing Stockholm of its sole credible alternative: a defence alliance with Helsinki.
The main reason for the differing approaches, experts say, lies in the two countries’ reasons for staying away from Nato up till now and the basis for their longtime neutrality. Finland had its neutrality imposed on it as a way of dealing with the Soviet Union and their shared 1,340km border during the cold war. But for Sweden, neutrality has long been part of its national DNA, giving it an enviable record of not being involved in a conflict for more than 200 years.
“In Sweden, it is an identity issue. Due to the 200-year history of being non-aligned, it sticks in people as a normal thing. Finland has had a dramatic, and sometimes terribly difficult, situation,” says Gunilla Herolf, senior associate research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs.
Jarmo Lindberg, the former head of Finland’s defence, adds simply: “Finns are pragmatic. For Swedes, it’s more ideological.” Geography also plays a role. Finland has a longer border with Russia than Nato in its current form, making the Nordic country acutely aware of the security threat. But for Sweden, with no border with Russia, Finland has historically acted as its buffer zone. The dark joke in Helsinki is that Swedes have for centuries fought their wars to the last Finn.
The differences are apparent in the way each country is moving towards Nato. When Finland’s parliament began discussing potential membership on Wednesday, the mantra across the political spectrum was on how to improve the country’s security. Faced with a Russia that is far more aggressive and unpredictable than Finns had hoped, there is a strong feeling that only Nato’s article 5 guarantee — whereby an attack on one is an attack on all — is strong enough.
But in Sweden the debate mostly revolves around the governing Social Democrat party. The four centre-right parties have been in favour of Nato membership for the past five years while the nationalist Sweden Democrats have said they would vote in favour if Finland decides to join the alliance.
That already gives a majority supporting membership in Sweden’s parliament. But the idea of entering the military alliance without the support of the Social Democrats — winner of every national election for the past century in Sweden — is close to unthinkable.
“It is very much part of the Social Democrat identity — it gave us a special space of manoeuvre in international politics in terms of mediation, peace talks and arms control. That’s the main explanation of why we’re acting so slowly now,” says Anna Wieslander, director for northern Europe at the Atlantic Council think-tank.
Things are now speeding up. The Social Democrats, who only confirmed their opposition to Nato in November, are debating whether to reverse their position with a decision due next month just as a hastily written government report on security policy will be released. The main Social Democrat newspaper, the tabloid Aftonbladet, last week altered its mind and declared its “reluctant” support for membership. Recent opinion polls show 58 per cent of Swedes in favour of joining and 21 per cent against. Most observers in Stockholm expect an application to come in tandem or just after Finland’s ahead of the Nato June summit in Madrid, albeit without passion.
“You don’t see any enthusiasm for this anywhere,” says Herolf. “You see some people saying it goes too quickly. And, of course, it does, but the security situation is as it is.”
___________
I think it's safe to say that if Finland joins, odds are better than average that Sweden will as well.
I was up in Sweden a couple of weeks ago to a family reunion, with a couple of cousins. Over the years I had noticed a change in their attitude: regarding Swedish neutrality. Like most Swedes they had been perfectly at ease with the country’s neutrality policy, right up until a couple of years ago, when Russia held a fleet exercise in the Baltic that included a mock air attack (in International waters!) on Stockholm. That they weren’t the only ones who had a sea change can be seen on the poll numbers in favor of NATO membership that have gone from the mid 30’s to what it is today around 53-55%. Their point of view agree fully with yours: that if Finland joins, Sweden will follow!
When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden's government does not plan to hold a referendum if its parliament decides to proceed with an application for NATO membership, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Friday.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced both Sweden and Finland to review long held beliefs that military neutrality is the best means of ensuring national security, with both countries expected to make a decision in the coming few weeks.
Andersson said that a referendum was a "bad idea".
"I don't think it is an issue that is suitable for a referendum," she told reporters.
"There is a lot of information about national security that is confidential, so there are important issues in such a referendum that cannot be discussed and important facts that cannot be put on the table."
Sweden's parliament is reviewing security policy with a report expected in mid-May. Separately, Andersson's own party, the Social Democrats, are looking at whether to drop their objections to NATO membership.
With a majority in parliament backing membership, the ruling Social Democrats are seen as the biggest hurdle to Sweden applying to join the 30-nation alliance.
The leader of the Moderates, the biggest opposition party, has also rejected calls for a referendum on the issue.
"Voters ... are not naive about Russia," Ulf Kristersson told daily Aftonbladet earlier this week in a debate with Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar. "It's very clear that Swedish voters have understood what happened on 24 February and have drawn their conclusions."
Dadgostar, whose party opposes NATO membership, told Aftonbladet that Swedes should get a say in the decision.
"This .. has to go back to the voters, there has to be very strong democratic support in this question," she said.
Sweden holds a general election in September.
An opinion poll by Demoskop in daily Aftonbladet published on April 20 showed 57% of Swedes in favour of joining NATO, up from 51% in March.
_________
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden's government does not plan to hold a referendum if its parliament decides to proceed with an application for NATO membership, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Friday.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced both Sweden and Finland to review long held beliefs that military neutrality is the best means of ensuring national security, with both countries expected to make a decision in the coming few weeks.
Andersson said that a referendum was a "bad idea".
"I don't think it is an issue that is suitable for a referendum," she told reporters.
"There is a lot of information about national security that is confidential, so there are important issues in such a referendum that cannot be discussed and important facts that cannot be put on the table."
Sweden's parliament is reviewing security policy with a report expected in mid-May. Separately, Andersson's own party, the Social Democrats, are looking at whether to drop their objections to NATO membership.
With a majority in parliament backing membership, the ruling Social Democrats are seen as the biggest hurdle to Sweden applying to join the 30-nation alliance.
The leader of the Moderates, the biggest opposition party, has also rejected calls for a referendum on the issue.
"Voters ... are not naive about Russia," Ulf Kristersson told daily Aftonbladet earlier this week in a debate with Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar. "It's very clear that Swedish voters have understood what happened on 24 February and have drawn their conclusions."
Dadgostar, whose party opposes NATO membership, told Aftonbladet that Swedes should get a say in the decision.
"This .. has to go back to the voters, there has to be very strong democratic support in this question," she said.
Sweden holds a general election in September.
An opinion poll by Demoskop in daily Aftonbladet published on April 20 showed 57% of Swedes in favour of joining NATO, up from 51% in March.
_________
Just saw a Swedish poll where 64% of Swedes favor joining NATO if the Finns vote for membership.
Quite extraordinary when you take into account that less than half a year ago it was in the low 40’s.
But I guess that Putin does have a way of altering perceptions!
When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin
Finland and Sweden could join NATO quickly, Stoltenberg says
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Finland and Sweden will be able to join NATO quickly should they decide to ask for membership in the Western military alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.
"If they decide to apply, Finland and Sweden will be warmly welcomed and I expect the process to go quickly," Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, adding he planned to speak with the Finnish president later in the day.
He said he was sure arrangements could be found for the interim period between an application by the two Scandinavian countries and the formal ratification in the parliaments of all 30 NATO members.
"I am confident that there are ways to bridge that interim period in a way which is good enough and works for both Finland and Sweden," Stoltenberg said.
Russia, with which Finland shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border, has said it will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad if Finland and Sweden decide to join NATO.
___________
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
Finland and Sweden could join NATO quickly, Stoltenberg says
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Finland and Sweden will be able to join NATO quickly should they decide to ask for membership in the Western military alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.
"If they decide to apply, Finland and Sweden will be warmly welcomed and I expect the process to go quickly," Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, adding he planned to speak with the Finnish president later in the day.
He said he was sure arrangements could be found for the interim period between an application by the two Scandinavian countries and the formal ratification in the parliaments of all 30 NATO members.
"I am confident that there are ways to bridge that interim period in a way which is good enough and works for both Finland and Sweden," Stoltenberg said.
Russia, with which Finland shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border, has said it will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad if Finland and Sweden decide to join NATO.
___________
Well since most of the world already knows that they are there, "deployment" will be a relatively easy exercise!
When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin
Apparently Russia has pretentions that the Baltic is theirs.
There have been numerous incursions into the airspace of the Scandinavian countries over the years.
The latest was Russian fighter that flew into the airspace over the Danish island of Bornholm,
and had to be escorted out by Danish fighters.
That it was fully intentional is made obvious by the fact, that after being escorted out of Danish airspace,
it then flew directly in and violated Swedish airspace, and had to be escorted out by Swedish fighters!
The only explanation is that it is like a cur hound marking off its territory!!!
The decision to join will come in two steps on that day, with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto first announcing his approval for the Nordic neighbour of Russia to join the Western defence alliance, followed by parliamentary groups giving their approval for the application, the paper reported.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the verge of applying for NATO membership and abandoning a belief held for decades that peace was best kept by not publicly choosing sides.
Reuters was not immediately able to verify the details provided by Iltalehti.
Under the Finnish constitution, the president leads Finland's foreign and security policy in cooperation with the government.
The decision will be confirmed in a meeting between the President and the government's key ministers after the President's and the Parliament's initial announcements, the paper reported.
Russia, with which Finland shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border and a pre-1945 history of conflict, has warned it will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in its Baltic coast enclave of Kaliningrad if Finland and Sweden decide to join the U.S.-led NATO alliance.
________
It's a good bet that Sweden will follow suit shortly thereafter
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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