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  • Excellent, Bigfella, I watched both of them. Good stuff.

    As for Mithridates comment about bloated welfare state I can say that I have never met a Norwegian or Swede who ever complained about their welfare state. Heck, I would love to have a one month paid vacation every year so I could spend it on the beautiful beaches of Palawan and Tahiti. Anyone care to join me...

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    • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
      Excellent, Bigfella, I watched both of them. Good stuff.
      Perun has produced consistently good videos on Ukraine. IO can recommend going back through the lot if you have time.

      CaspianReport is patchier, but illustrated the point well enough.

      As for Mithridates comment about bloated welfare state I can say that I have never met a Norwegian or Swede who ever complained about their welfare state. Heck, I would love to have a one month paid vacation every year so I could spend it on the beautiful beaches of Palawan and Tahiti. Anyone care to join me...
      Swedes & Finns have managed to run wildly successful nations, build up big militaries AND welfare states. The idea tha tit is either/or is something of an anglosphere fallacy. Anyone who knows any Finns knows they are fiercely independent. They won't be sitting around thinking 'NATO will come save us, so we can gut our defence spending'.

      sigpic

      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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      • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post

        I think you are missing a fair bit here, and the 'bloated welfare state' line is a right wing talking point, not analysis of any sort.

        Finland already spends near enough to 2% of GDP on defence and isn't the sort of society that is interested in being dependent on others to defend it (as opposed to wanting NATO as a deterrent against Russian stupidity, which is what is happening here). Sweden's spending is lower, but there was a committment to sharply increase it basically as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine. These nations will pay their own way. These aren't facsimilies of the Baltics, with very limited resources & combat capabilities.

        There are a couple of excellent videos on precisely this. The first is an hour, but packed full of useful facts & good analysis. Here are a few takeaways:

        *Finland has a big army (over 250,000 in wartime) & a decent airforce (soon to improve) and Sweden has a big airforce for its size and some impressive defence industries. These are genuine additions to NATO combat power.

        *These two nations futher shift the balance of power in the Baltic, which makes the Baltic states more secure. Just making a Russian invasion of Gotland less likely is a massive win. Adding to NATO air & sea power makes invading the Baltics in hopes of a 'quick victory' less likely.

        *The position of Finland means Russia will have to guard that border to a greater extent than previous, further stretching limted resources.



        This one is shorter & is a bit more focussed on strategic position.

        Perin's analysis of how nuclear deterrence actually works was also fantastic to watch. Although as far his review of Sweden goes I would actually have liked to have seen a 'flat pack nuke with simple assembly instructions included'. Just once. They could dismantle it afterwards. I watch the Caspian Report as well albeit I don't necessarily agree with all his conclusions re things like hypothetical Finish commando raids on the single road/rail corridor the Russians have heading up into the Kola Peninsula. The mere potential for such raids would probably suffice to tie down tens of thousands of Russian troops without Finland having to fire one shot or send in a single soldier.
        Last edited by Monash; 23 May 22,, 11:12.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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        • Originally posted by Monash View Post

          Perin's analysis of how nuclear deterrence actually works was also fantastic to watch.Although as far his review of Sweden goes I would actually have liked to have seen a 'flat pack nuke with simple assembly instructions included'. Just once. They could dismantle it afterwards. I watch the Caspian Report as well albeit I don't necessarily agree with all his conclusions re things like hypothetical Finish commando raids on the single road/rail corridor the Russians have heading up into the Kola Peninsula. The mere potential for such raids would probably suffice to tie down tens of thousands of Russian troops without Finland having to fire a one shot or send in a single soldier.
          Agreed. Caspian's stuff leans more heavily on speculation in general, not just this video. But the info was interesting. I wasn't aware just how important that area was to Russia's power projection. Russia can't take the chance that NATO forces might infiltrate and leave that border open. It also can't take the chance NATO aircraft will use Finnish airspace to gain multiple access points to that area & the lines of communication to it. While I'm sure they had contingency plans for NATO violating Finnish airspace, now they have to assume it will happen. Plus the potential threat to St Petersburg & some of the staging areas for any invasion of the Baltics.

          This makes life harder for any Russian leader contemplating an adventure at some future point in time.
          sigpic

          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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          • Perun is my newest favorite YouTuber, ever since I heard about him on The Chieftain's Hatch. Holy crap that guy knows how to make a presentation

            His video Is NATO running out of weapons to supply Ukraine? (no) is simply fantastic. I love his analogy of (paraphrasing) "A bar isn't screwed just because it runs out of Bud Light".


            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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            • U.S. Republicans join Democrats in backing NATO expansion despite rising nationalism

              WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate leaders introduced a resolution on Monday backing Sweden and Finland's bids to join NATO, underscoring support for expanding the alliance despite growing nationalism in the Republican party.

              It will take a two-thirds majority in the 100-member Senate to approve the expansion of the alliance, requiring "yes" votes from at least 17 Republicans along with every Democrat.

              Many U.S. Republicans have been following the lead of former President Donald Trump - the party's leader - toward more nationalist foreign policy. Trump accused NATO allies of not spending enough on their own defense and excessively burdening the United States.

              Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO.

              In the Senate, 11 Republicans voted "no" last week against legislation providing $40 billion to help Ukraine, with some saying they wanted the funds directed to Americans.

              Last month, 63 Republican members of the House of Representatives, nearly one-third of the full caucus, opposed a bill reaffirming U.S. support for NATO.


              The top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell, and Jim Risch, the top Republican on the foreign relations panel, joined Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and committee chairman Bob Menendez and other senators in introducing the resolution.

              "We fully support their application to become NATO members and are looking forward to their swift ascension in the coming months," Menendez said in a statement.

              McConnell referred to Finland and Sweden as "strong countries with formidable military capabilities" and said in his statement, "both nations' robust defense funding means their accession would meaningfully bolster our pursuit of greater burden-sharing across the alliance. I fully support the Senate providing its advice and consent as quickly as possible."
              ___________

              Now we get to find out just how many Republicans are still on Putin's payroll....Sounds like 1/3 of the GOP House still regards themselves as Guardians Of Putin.
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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              • That if once you have paid him the Danegeld
                You never get rid of the Dane.

                Rudyard Kipling

                While I deeply resent the slur against my ancestors; good hard working seafarers and traders, Kipling does have a point.
                That giving in to an extortionist like Erdogan will only result in him coming back for more.
                Now that he’s laid out some of his demands to Sweden and Finland, it doesn’t take much to imagine that other demands will be forthcoming!
                Lifting of the sanctions that prevent him from acquiring the latest military hardware from NATO partners?
                Help in shoring up the faltering Turkish economy?
                He doesn’t give a rat’s ass that he’s breaking the unanimity that NATO has achieved against Putin’s’ aggression in the Ukraine.
                Knows that the Alliance needs his affirmative vote for Sweden and Finland to become members!
                So he’s out to get his full pound of flesh, even if it goes against the expressed will of the rest of the NATO members.
                Having an defense alliance where one of the members is starting to have more in common with the opponent on the other side can’t be; seen with layman’s eyes” a good thing!!!
                There is one way to avoid paying “Danegeld”, get rid of the extortionist!!!


                https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...en-s-nato-bids

                When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

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                • "Now we get to find out just how many Republicans are still on Putin's payroll..."

                  Not a ruble in my bank account. Nor, I suspect, in the vast, vast majority of those 47% who voted in the nation's largest turnout for, you know...the other guy. Your comment is divisive to little good purpose.

                  Then again, who cares if it's pointed out by somebody who can't be trusted.

                  All 74,223,369 of us.

                  "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                  "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by S2 View Post
                    "Now we get to find out just how many Republicans are still on Putin's payroll..."

                    Not a ruble in my bank account. Nor, I suspect, in the vast, vast majority of those 47% who voted in the nation's largest turnout for, you know...the other guy. Your comment is divisive to little good purpose.

                    Then again, who cares if it's pointed out by somebody who can't be trusted.

                    All 74,223,369 of us.
                    I meant in Congress, they're the ones who will vote on the resolution to accept Finland and Sweden into NATO.

                    It's also why I bolded these parts:

                    In the Senate, 11 Republicans voted "no" last week against legislation providing $40 billion to help Ukraine, with some saying they wanted the funds directed to Americans.

                    Last month, 63 Republican members of the House of Representatives, nearly one-third of the full caucus, opposed a bill reaffirming U.S. support for NATO.


                    That last one is particularly damning. It doesn't cost a dime to reaffirm U.S. support for NATO but nearly 1/3 of the Republican caucus couldn't bring themselves to vote "Aye". That is unconscionable, verging on despicable, most especially after Putin demonstrated, graphically, how important NATO is.
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • NATO has the same problem the UN has, a dictator gumming up the works along with major players trying to do just enough to say they are doing something, but not enough to actually make a difference. The big guaranteer of European defense ( other than the US) at the moment is the EU Charter clause 42.7 that removes "discretion" from NATO's article 5. Without that I'm not sure Germany and France could be bothered to care until T-90's reached Warsaw. Not a dog on the German and French people, but elite capture is real and Russia has spent decades co-opting elites in both countries.

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                      • Schumer, McConnell pressing administration to rush paperwork on Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership

                        Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) plan to present a resolution that will press the Biden administration to rush the paperwork for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

                        In the resolution text, first obtained by Politico, both Senate leaders note the roles played by the Nordic countries in organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union, and their neutral stance on matters pertaining to Europe as reasons why they should join the alliance.

                        The resolution calls on President Biden to move swiftly to complete all necessary documents involving both countries’ NATO membership so the Senate can advance the measure, also calling on fellow NATO members to swiftly complete their own ratification processes.

                        It is being submitted by McConnell and Schumer along with a number of leading Senate voices on Ukraine aid, including Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.).

                        “NATO has been the cornerstone of Western defense since World War II, and President Niinistö of Finland and Prime Minister Andersson of Sweden are showing strong leadership in joining the United States and its allies against Putin’s deeply immoral campaign of violence,” Schumer said in a statement Monday.

                        “As the world’s democracies unite against Putin and his crony oligarchs, Finland and Sweden’s ascension into NATO will be a further rebuke of Putin’s murderous attack on Ukraine.”

                        McConnell said in the statement that “Finland and Sweden are strong countries with formidable military capabilities that surpass many existing NATO allies.”

                        “Both nations’ robust defense funding means their accession would meaningfully bolster our pursuit of greater burden-sharing across the alliance,” he added.

                        Biden met with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson last week in a public show of support for expanding the security alliance, which has been bolstered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

                        Both countries submitted their formal request to join the military alliance on Wednesday.

                        “Sweden and Finland have strong democratic institutions, strong militaries, and strong and transparent economies, and a strong and moral sense of what is right,” Biden said on Thursday. “They meet every NATO requirement and then some.”

                        Both Niinistö and Andersson also met with U.S lawmakers during their visit, urging Congress to vote on and ratify their entry into the alliance.

                        “This is historic for U.S.-#Finland-#Sweden relations,” tweeted Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho.), the Foreign Relations Committee’s ranking member. “#NATO is soon to be stronger and better than ever before.”

                        The resolution will be marked up by the Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday, Politico reported.
                        _______________

                        The bipartisanship is nice to see, especially now, as that concept is something of a rarely-seen unicorn in U.S. politics, but....

                        Do they really need to "convince" Biden to expedite the process? I mean, that's like two parents agreeing that they'll try to convince their son to eat his favorite dessert. Boy oh boy that's gonna be an uphill battle....

                        If Trump was president then yeah, I could totally see how such a resolution would be almost certainly required. But...he's not. So...why not just write a bill giving Congressional approval to Sweden and Finland's application and send that to the President instead?
                        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                        Comment


                        • The bipartisanship is nice to see, especially now, as that concept is something of a rarely-seen unicorn in U.S. politics, but....

                          Do they really need to "convince" Biden to expedite the process? I mean, that's like two parents agreeing that they'll try to convince their son to eat his favorite dessert. Boy oh boy that's gonna be an uphill battle....

                          If Trump was president then yeah, I could totally see how such a resolution would be almost certainly required. But...he's not. So...why not just write a bill giving Congressional approval to Sweden and Finland's application and send that to the President instead?

                          Believe it's a cart and horse situation. The Executive has no Treaty proposal as of yet because NATO has not yet forwarded a request to modify the NATO Treaty to it's member states. It's a formality but one where the order matters lest at a later date when an Article 5 event occurs someone can't renege and say...oh wait, this didn't have the right process so is invalid.

                          I don't think the formal paperwork will arrive until later next month. Oh, and the House doesn't get a bite at all.
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

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                          • You really have to wonder about Erdogan’s obstructionist tactics (in respect to Finland and Sweden’s NATO application),
                            as to how they will influence Turkey’s own application to join the EU?
                            I mean that right now he’s gotten virtually every EU member state; maybe with the exception of Hungary,
                            that are also NATO members pissed at him for breaking ranks.
                            Not exactly the actions of a wise supplicant,
                            getting on your high horse and annoying the very people who will decide on your application.
                            Last edited by Amled; 25 May 22,, 15:46.
                            When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

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                            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                              Believe it's a cart and horse situation. The Executive has no Treaty proposal as of yet because NATO has not yet forwarded a request to modify the NATO Treaty to it's member states. It's a formality but one where the order matters lest at a later date when an Article 5 event occurs someone can't renege and say...oh wait, this didn't have the right process so is invalid.

                              I don't think the formal paperwork will arrive until later next month. Oh, and the House doesn't get a bite at all.
                              Good reminders, hadn't considered either of those points, especially the House. Damn shame, it would've been a dandy litmus test.

                              I suspect both the incredibly important resolution and the subsequent treaty proposal will sail through the Senate.

                              Then all we have to do is hope and pray that Biden will sign it. I have grave doubts that he will even consider it though.

                              It would be a shining moment of national unity and a great big FU to Putin if both Senate votes were unanimous but there's always the possibility that some ratfucker will spoil things.

                              Josh Hawley is at the top of that list.
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Amled View Post
                                You really have to wonder about Erdogan’s obstructionist tactics (in respect to Finland and Sweden’s NATO application),
                                as to how they will influence Turkey’s own application to join the EU?
                                I mean that right now he’s gotten virtually every EU member state; maybe with the exception of Hungary,
                                that are also NATO members pissed at him for breaking ranks.
                                Not exactly the actions of a wise supplicant,
                                getting on your high horse and annoying the very people who will decide on your application.
                                Yeah he's definitely screwing himself in the long term, regardless of whatever short term gains he gets.

                                But hey, this kind of extortion shakedown is par for the course for an authoritarian piece of shit. So, business as usual.
                                “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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