Originally posted by Bigfella
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Originally posted by rj1 View PostTried to dive into this last night but there was not much mainstream information out there regarding what Turkey are doing right now. (Go to Twitter and you can have your pick of the passionate Turkish take or the passionate Kurdish take. There also look to be Armenian volunteers aiding the Kurds and fighting the Turks in Rojava, although how large and effective no idea.) An American-brokered ceasefire between the Turkish-backed SNA and the Kurdish SDF that lasted 4 days ended yesterday and was not renewed. Appears the SNA goals are to take Manbij and Kobane.
As far as HTS, there are starting to be murmurs in mainstream circles from Syrian opposition figures that are not HTS that HTS are controlling everything. The administration in Damascus were all brought from Idlib where HTS were administration prior to sweeping Assad out from power. All "official" diplomatic communications with other nations have been HTS only.
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Something ironic that many may not realize... Abu Mohammad al-Julani, real name Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, his father's cousin was a vice-president of Syria from 2006 to 2014, and the foreign minister before that from 1984 to 2006. The ex-VP, ex-foreign minister cousin is still alive, presumably still in Syria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farouk_al-Sharaa
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Tried to dive into this last night but there was not much mainstream information out there regarding what Turkey are doing right now. (Go to Twitter and you can have your pick of the passionate Turkish take or the passionate Kurdish take. There also look to be Armenian volunteers aiding the Kurds and fighting the Turks in Rojava, although how large and effective no idea.) An American-brokered ceasefire between the Turkish-backed SNA and the Kurdish SDF that lasted 4 days ended yesterday and was not renewed. Appears the SNA goals are to take Manbij and Kobane.
As far as HTS, there are starting to be murmurs in mainstream circles from Syrian opposition figures that are not HTS that HTS are controlling everything. The administration in Damascus were all brought from Idlib where HTS were administration prior to sweeping Assad out from power. All "official" diplomatic communications with other nations have been HTS only.Last edited by rj1; 17 Dec 24,, 14:37.
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Originally posted by Ironduke View PostEverywhere was messed up from the beginning of history. Some of us have had the good luck to be born or live in nations where things like reason, the Enlightenment, and the concepts of the rule of law and natural rights more or less firmly took hold.
Syria and Lebanon weren't quiet under Ottoman rule, there was constant internal warfare, massacres, rebellions, etc. French/British rule did not establish some new trajectory or introduce instability to the region, every generation that lived under the Ottomans experienced constant strife and fighting no different than the 20th/21st centuries.
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The Law of Unforeseen Consequence
“The actions of people, and especially of governments, always have effects that are unanticipated or "unintended."
This Law does seem to be especially applicable when it comes to Russia’s attempts to stick their noses into Islamic countries.
In 1980 they attempted to meddle with the affairs of Afghanistan, and they departed; flags flying, but with their tails between their legs.
Yet this led to the Taliban coming into prominence. Definitely not a good thing!
Their latest endeavor in Syria has also come up short. Again they are sent packing, and they have lost their major bastion in the Med. A good thing!
But unfortunately this means that the men and equipment they are withdrawing from Syria, can now be deployed in Ukraine! Again not a good thing
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Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
True, it has been messed up since Cain killed Abel. Yet during Ottoman rule it was fairly quiet until the British and French broke up the Ottoman rule. You know the quickest way to start a fight is to draw a line in the sand and the British weren't artists.
Syria and Lebanon weren't quiet under Ottoman rule, there was constant internal warfare, massacres, rebellions, etc. French/British rule did not establish some new trajectory or introduce instability to the region, every generation that lived under the Ottomans experienced constant strife and fighting no different than the 20th/21st centuries.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostLooks like a lot of side deals going on.
Russia has also suspended grain supplies to Syria; Ukraine has offered to step in.
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Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
Well we all know Trump doesn't believe in doing favors free of charge. However, I am not sure that Erdogan would want to push deep in the eastern half of Syria to push the Kurds into Iraq. That is a hell of a lot of territory.
Even with the US supporting the Kurds this might succeed. If the US effectively withdraws support it would be even easier.
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Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
Well we all know Trump doesn't believe in doing favors free of charge. However, I am not sure that Erdogan would want to push deep in the eastern half of Syria to push the Kurds into Iraq. That is a hell of a lot of territory.
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Originally posted by Monash View Post
If Trump is prepared to dump the Khurds unconditionally as he has stated in the past even though they have been a vital part of America and the west's anti jihardist strategy for decades now? Then Erfagan will have free reign to push away from the Turkish border and all the back into Iraq/possibly further.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostNot fair. The region was a clusterfuck dating back to the Roman Empire with kingdoms vying for Roman, Persian, Arab, and Turk support against each other before the Brits and French got involved
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Originally posted by tbm3fan View PostI would be very surprised if the state of Syria, as it has been known since 1946, remains in one piece. I suspect it would be more likely to break up into separate autonomous regions as in right after WWI. Kurds take northeast, then the Alawites in the west and the Druze, or whatever, in the south, with these rebel folks in the middle. Come to think of it Bibi might want the south as a massive buffer.
In a sense Syria has never been a stable state after WW1 and it's formation. Competing interests all over and maybe we are back at square 1. Well the British and French were involved so go figure.
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Originally posted by tbm3fan View PostWell the British and French were involved so go figure.
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I would be very surprised if the state of Syria, as it has been known since 1946, remains in one piece. I suspect it would be more likely to break up into separate autonomous regions as in right after WWI. Kurds take northeast, then the Alawites in the west and the Druze, or whatever, in the south, with these rebel folks in the middle. Come to think of it Bibi might want the south as a massive buffer.
In a sense Syria has never been a stable state after WW1 and it's formation. Competing interests all over and maybe we are back at square 1. Well the British and French were involved so go figure.
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