Syrian Civil War Developments

[Officer of Engineers]

I'm going on just the population. There's two Shia's for every Sunni.

Iran-Iraq War. Iraqi Shia willingly sided with Saddam against Khomeni's Iran.

I get the impression that Iran is doing to Iraq what the Paks are doing to Afghanistan. As Iran tries to assert itself, the Iranians will try to pull it back.

The Neocons wanted Iraq to be a competing Shia power. Iran won't allow that.

And you will get another Afghanistan where warlords will sell their services to the highest bidder and at times, that won't be Iran just as Afghan warlords did not answered to Islamabad when the bribe was insufficent.

Oh you see the insurgency as weighing him down. He has Iranian support here. But it isn't Iranians doing the fighting. They're using Afghan kids as cannon fodder. Solemani had a rep for being a child killer due to this.

Won't do Assad any good with car bombs going off in Dasmascus.

[Double Edge]

This is an extremely rosy picture that history does not bore out. Iran will not control Iraq. There's enough anti-Persian groups in Iraq to make the Iranians extremely miserable. Note the term anti-Persian.

I'm going on just the population. There's two Shia's for every Sunni.

Americans left Iraq with a balanced military of sunni & Shia. Maliki comes in and starts letting the Sunni's go. He turned the Iraqi military into his personal Shia militia. This then leads to other problems and Americans get invited back. So that is one precedent.

There is certainly a portion of people who do not want to see the Americans leave because they fear an Iranian take over. Meaning they don't think they can push back. There is certainly disgust among the Iraqi public as to what they see as overbearing influence from Tehran.

But who will stand up to it.

I get the impression that Iran is doing to Iraq what the Paks are doing to Afghanistan. As Iraq tries to assert itself, the Iranians will try to pull it back.

The Neocons wanted Iraq to be a competing Shia power. Iran won't allow that.

Neither Iraq nor Iran has enough money to spare to help Assad and while he may (strongly doubtful at this moment because of Turkey) be able to reconquer Syria, the Syrian insurgency ain't going nowhere. Any military strength he would have left would not be able to threaten Israel.

Oh you see the insurgency as weighing him down. He has Iranian support here. But it isn't Iranians doing the fighting. Iranian public do not like to see their own coming back in body bags. So they're using Afghan kids as cannon fodder. Solemani had a rep for being a child killer due to this.

[Officer of Engineers]

The nuke thing is over but Assad needs help to rebuild. Where is that help to come from ?

If the Americans leave Iraq then Iranian control of Iraq will be complete.

If Assad plays ball then both Iraq & Iran help him rebuild.

This is an extremely rosy picture that history does not bore out. Iran will not control Iraq. There's enough anti-Persian groups in Iraq to make the Iranians extremely miserable. Note the term anti-Persian.

Neither Iraq nor Iran has enough money to spare to help Assad and while he may (strongly doubtful at this moment because of Turkey) be able to reconquer Syria, the Syrian insurgency ain't going nowhere. Any military strength he would have left would not be able to threaten Israel.

[Double Edge]

He went from a man seeking nukes to be of one of many warlords fighting for his survival. He ain't doing squat against us nor Israel.

The nuke thing is over but Assad needs help to rebuild. Where is that help to come from ?

If the Americans leave Iraq then Iranian control of Iraq will be complete.

If Assad plays ball then both Iraq & Iran help him rebuild.

For Israel to be safe the land bridge from Iran to the Mediterranean has to be disrupted.

The Israelis hit Hezbollah from time to time in Syria. This will continue.

So how does Israel remain safe in this scenario ?

[Double Edge]

Oh, and just a reminder that elective wars against people who had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11 don't actually add to national security. In fact, by wasting national resources, lives, and international good will, they severely inhibit one's security.

Korea, Vietnam, Syria, Libya. Kosovo.

And as much as you disagree with Iraq, Saddam and Qadaffy are gone, Assad is neutered, and Iran has gone silent. I say that's a strategic plus over what was before.

Stick with economics. Reading allies and enemies are not your fortay.

What DOR says is very common sentiment i see in general whenever this topic as he puts it of 'elective wars' comes up IRL.

You're right the public does not know how to read allies and enemies because nobody tells them how to. The media gives it out in drips & drabs but nobody there to connect the dots. Then the opposition jumps in and muddies the water further.

Why does what DOR said there matter ?

I was surprised to recently learn that Trump's base reacted negatively to that 58 tomahawk strike on Syria for using chemical weapons. You know the one where the Russians were given the one hour advance warning.

If congress cannot tie Trump's hands then his base will do it. We are dealing with another breed of Republican here.

What DOR says is what his base believes. Maybe this is one reason he keeps firing the generals in his cabinet. Increasingly they serve no purpose for him. It's no surprise Bolton didn't last long maybe the bigger surprise is how he landed up in the administration in the first place.

[Officer of Engineers]

Can you explain in what way Assad is neutered ?

He went from a man seeking nukes to be of one of many warlords fighting for his survival. He ain't doing squat against us nor Israel.

[Double Edge]

Pricesly. Without the US going into Iraq, Saddam would have crushed the destablization factors that toppled Qaddafy and neutered Assad.

Can you explain in what way Assad is neutered ?

He's in charge of a shattered country so i'd like to think his concerns would foremost be limited to repairing and recovering his country.

PR wise he's on the up. The west wanted to get rid of him, their proxies failed and in the end the west ended up on his side fighting IS.

[Officer of Engineers]

Then you are blind or prefer not to recognise the truth.

You're showing your ignorance to the hilt. No,you are too damned dumb to recognize the truth. We stepping aside to allow the butchers to butcher each other. That is a strategic move since the days of Constatine - to get your enemies to fight each other.

[snapper]

You can't read, can you? NOT OUR PROBLEM. Get this through your head. We don't care. Assad is neutered in OUR EYES. We don't care what anyone else believes.

Then you are blind or prefer not to recognise the truth.

[Officer of Engineers]

Please take this to a more appropriate thread.

You opened the door.

That is just 689,000 Syrians who do not believe Assad is "neutered" who are fleeing him.

You can't read, can you? NOT OUR PROBLEM. Get this through your head. We don't care. Assad is neutered in OUR EYES. We don't care what anyone else believes.

[snapper]

So skip your holier than thou sermon. You have no place telling us how to treat our enemies.

Not our problem. And frankly, we like to keep making it their problem.

That is just 689,000 Syrians who do not believe Assad is "neutered" who are fleeing him.

[Officer of Engineers]

Assad started the slaughter by killing civilians who were protesting. And no I do not have anything much in common with your average Sunni Syrian - I am a Polish Catholic and it is not my business really

So skip your holier than thou sermon. You have no place telling us how to treat our enemies.

- but there are 689,000 'displaced perople' from Idlib thanks to Assad and Putin and the IRG and where do you think they will head?

Not our problem. And frankly, we like to keep making it their problem.

[troung]

Those who start committing war crimes cannot complain when others retaliate against them in kind. Point is that Assad is hardly 'neutered'.

Non assad held Idlib is run by HTS which is AQ. Would be kinda awkward to ride in and save an AQ statlet.

[snapper]

Yes he is. He's too busy trying to butcher other butchers. Get off your high horse. They're too busy trying to butcher each other and if you can't understand that (and you don't), you have absolutely no place (and you don't) telling us how to treat our enemies. They're exactly where we want them to be. They're butchering each other.

Your "people" in Idlib are nothing more than another set of butchers. Assad is neutered and so is your damned Idlib butchers.

Assad started the slaughter by killing civilians who were protesting. And no I do not have anything much in common with your average Sunni Syrian - I am a Polish Catholic and it is not my business really - but there are 689,000 'displaced perople' from Idlib thanks to Assad and Putin and the IRG and where do you think they will head?

[Officer of Engineers]

Those who start committing war crimes cannot complain when others retaliate against them in kind. Point is that Assad is hardly 'neutered'.

Yes he is. He's too busy trying to butcher other butchers. Get off your high horse. They're too busy trying to butcher each other and if you can't understand that (and you don't), you have absolutely no place (and you don't) telling us how to treat our enemies. They're exactly where we want them to be. They're butchering each other.

Your "people" in Idlib are nothing more than another set of butchers. Assad is neutered and so is your damned Idlib butchers.