Syrian Civil War Developments

[Double Edge]

not really. troung is right that this is among one of the stupid things that Trump campaigned on. (although "key issue" is overstating it, as US troop levels in Syria is a big priority for precisely zero of the MAGA-crowd.)

I don't know what the US was doing in Syria to start with. US is the only foreign actor that wasn't invited. Thinking at the time was the US got involved so as to have a say at the table whenever that happens. But it appears not to be the case if there is a pull out now.

the question is the timing, and the immediacy of it. everything about this speaks to Trump impulsively getting tired of his advisers and generals and diplomats telling him that immediate withdrawal is a bad idea, and Trump deciding to show them who's boss.

it's the same reason why Trump ignored Mattis when it came to picking a CJCS. there's no real reason for Trump to have rejected Mattis's recommendation....other than to show that Trump has the power to ignore his people's advice.

Let's see if that bolded bit can withstand testing over time. As with almost everything we discuss here, things become more clear with time when more information comes out.

[TopHatter]

‘Fox & Friends’ Trashes Trump Over Syrian Withdrawal: ‘Worse Than President Obama’

The set of “Fox & Friends” spent a second day Thursday lacing into President Trump, with host Brian Kilmeade saying the president’s decision to pull U.S. forces out of Syria was worse than former president Barack Obama’s own foreign policy in the region.

“What happened last time when President Obama pulled out troops out after Iraq? What happened? We had to fight our way in and reestablish,” Kilmeade said. “He is doing exactly, if not worse, than President Obama did,” adding that Trump’s decision to pull out was comparable to Obama’s ultimately empty statement that Syrian use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” for his administration.

Trump made the announcement Wednesday, to the surprise of many, especially on Twitter. “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency,” he said.

Echoing the broad foreign policy consensus, Kilmeade said that a U.S. withdrawal from Syria would allow Russia and Iran to move into the region and present an untenable situation for our Kurdish allies. Also on hand was Fox News reporter Ed Henry, who did his best to provide counterpoint and pushed back on Kilmeade, noting how Trump had been tough on Iran in other ways.

“But you’re assuming that we’re handing Syria to Iran without noting as well that this president stood up to Iran and pulled out of the nuclear deal,” Henry said. “President Obama was handing them cash. Is that a better idea?”

“We’re doing the same thing,” Kilmeade shot back. “We are allowing them to reestablish themselves in a region.”

It was the second day in a row the show offered a stern finger wag to the president. On Wednesday, Kilmeade along with co-host Steve Doocy and Ainsley Earhardt, criticized Trump over his decision to back down on a demand that Congress fund the border wall with Mexico.

“What a stunning turn of events,” Doocy said. “If he agrees to the [continuing resolution] which would continue funding the government at the current levels … he loses and the Democrats will win everything they want.”
___________________

Once again, the personal propaganda organ of the "President" is trashing him. On his favorite show, no less. And comparing him unfavorably to Obama ffs...

In unrelated news, the commodities market saw a huge surge in popcorn futures

[astralis]

DE,

Begs the question why he did it. Is there more to it

not really. troung is right that this is among one of the stupid things that Trump campaigned on. (although "key issue" is overstating it, as US troop levels in Syria is a big priority for precisely zero of the MAGA-crowd.)

the question is the timing, and the immediacy of it. everything about this speaks to Trump impulsively getting tired of his advisers and generals and diplomats telling him that immediate withdrawal is a bad idea, and Trump deciding to show them who's boss.

it's the same reason why Trump ignored Mattis when it came to picking a CJCS. there's no real reason for Trump to have rejected Mattis's recommendation....other than to show that Trump has the power to ignore his people's advice.

[astralis]

Trump ran on this very course of action as a key issue of his campaign, this isn't a surprise nor should it be.

leaving Syria isn't a shocking course of action, it's immediately without any notice or thought about execution that is.

great way to ruin the credibility of anyone charged with speaking/acting on your behalf, like McGurk.

There is a small pocket in Syria that the SDF/PKK is dragging their feet on to extract concessions from the USA over Turkey.

current force of 2,000 SOF is designed for stuff like this. this ain't 130,000 troops in Iraq doing occupation duty we're talking about here.

Team Putin finished off a pocket last month.

lol, better stop watchin' that RT before you start ordering Putin-on-horseback calendars...;-)

the very fact that Putin is telling everyone what a great idea this withdrawal is....should be a good indicator that perhaps, just perhaps, this might not be the best course of action for the US.

[troung]

his own special envoy, Brett McGurk, literally just said this week that immediate withdrawal wasn't going to happen and that it was a bad idea. glad to see foreign policy changes being done on the fly with no warning to even the rest of the USG.

Trump ran on this very course of action as a key issue of his campaign, this isn't a surprise nor should it be.

US own open-source intel estimates between 20-30K ISIS remaining in Syria/Iraq, with 15K still in Syria.

There is a small pocket in Syria that the SDF/PKK is dragging their feet on to extract concessions from the USA over Turkey.

i'm sure Turkish government/Assad/Putin will get right on that.

Team Putin finished off a pocket last month.

[Double Edge]

glad to see foreign policy changes being done on the fly with no warning to even the rest of the USG.

That is the slightly troubling bit here. Though given how short the stay was i suppose this was more feasible to do.

US own open-source intel estimates between 20-30K ISIS remaining in Syria/Iraq, with 15K still in Syria.

i'm sure Turkish government/Assad/Putin will get right on that.

Begs the question why he did it. Is there more to it

[astralis]

Trump stated America is out and done in three months because he feels we have ended ISIS territorial control over that corner of the world (and to avoid staying in that quagmire), not that "we are leaving in three months but please take part in peace talks with us in the meantime."

his own special envoy, Brett McGurk, literally just said this week that immediate withdrawal wasn't going to happen and that it was a bad idea. glad to see foreign policy changes being done on the fly with no warning to even the rest of the USG.

What is left of ISIS can be mopped up by the other bad guys without America having to babysit the PKK and keep them safe from the Turkish government/Assad/Putin.

US own open-source intel estimates between 20-30K ISIS remaining in Syria/Iraq, with 15K still in Syria.

i'm sure Turkish government/Assad/Putin will get right on that.

[Double Edge]

Turks won't be complaining that's for sure.

[troung]

remember when Obama got a bunch of crap for announcing the timeline for withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan? how about immediate withdrawal now? what a clown show.

Trump stated America is out and done in three months because he feels we have ended ISIS territorial control over that corner of the world (and to avoid staying in that quagmire), not that "we are leaving in three months but please take part in peace talks with us in the meantime."

What is left of ISIS can be mopped up by the other bad guys without America having to babysit the PKK and keep them safe from the Turkish government/Assad/Putin.

[astralis]

so now POTUS has called for an immediate end to the Syria mission, undercutting his administration's own diplomatic/defense strategy, as stated -Monday-.

remember when Obama got a bunch of crap for announcing the timeline for withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan? how about immediate withdrawal now? what a clown show.

[Josh]

Russia to supply Syria with S300's. I don't see how that doesn't provoke an IAF strike on any operational S300 site. This could easily become a situation of mutual escalation without an off ramp if Russia tries to avenge Syria losses in any way.

[Ironduke]

Map Source: https://syria.liveuamap.com

1/1/2018


13/7/2018

[Ironduke]

Map source: Deutsche Welle

Full article: https://www.dw.com/en/in-syria-rebel...ion/a-44628323

In Syria, rebel defeat marks 'end of revolution'

In a defeat steeped in symbolism, Syrian regime forces have ousted rebels from parts of Deraa, considered the birthplace of the country's uprising. Deraa was where peaceful protests erupted in 2011, in what would eventually lead to a bloody regime crackdown that triggered a war.

Seven years later, armed opposition groups in the area agreed to surrender and handover heavy arms under a Russia-brokered deal, even while regime forces continued to bombard rebel-held pockets in and around Deraa city.

Losing Deraa marks a significant blow to Syria's rebel movement. While under previous surrender deals, opposition fighters unwilling to make peace with the government would be transferred to Idlib, their last bastion in the country, this time regime negotiators have reportedly rejected such a compromise, a sign of how Damascus views its newfound position.

"Deraa is the end of the Syrian revolution," Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and editor of Syria Comment blog, told DW.

"All of Syria's remaining 'independent' rebel militias are in the southeast. Once they are dismantled, the only region where rebel militias will hold sway is in the north … But the militias that hold sway in the north are under direct US and Turkish control."

'In the works for years'

In June 2011, opposition to the regime of President Bashar Assad culminated in the founding of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), bringing together military officers who defected from the armed forces and rebel groups willing to take up arms against the state. In its infancy, the FSA was widely seen as the armed "moderate opposition" in Syria.

While it enjoyed popular and international support at its onset, including receiving aid from the US and European allies, the alliance of armed opposition groups began to splinter a year later, most notably under the weight of hard-line Islamist elements. Some FSA members even defected to the "Islamic State" (IS) militant group in 2014.

Since then, the opposition movement has further fractured into various factions, witnessed Islamist militant groups rise to the forefront and seen major losses in its former strongholds, most notably in Aleppo and eastern Ghouta.

"The end of the armed opposition has been in the works for at least the past three years in my view, if not longer," Yezid Sayigh, senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told DW.

"Any doubts on this score should have been dispelled following their major losses of eastern Aleppo and eastern Ghouta, and in light of their continuing inability to take advantage of the [Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces'] expansion and US deployment in other parts of Syria in order to rebuild or regain some initiative."

Indeed, the fractured rebel movement has been unable to fend off the regime's latest offensives, aside from in Idlib in northern Syria, where experienced militant groups such as the al-Qaida-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have effectively taken control.

[Ironduke]

Full article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1JR182

Jordan seeks truce for southwest Syria after army gains

AMMAN/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Jordan stepped in to try to avert further violence and stem another wave of displacement across its border with Syria on Sunday, mediating new talks between rebels and the government’s main ally Russia for a truce in the southwest.

Talks in the town of Bosra al-Sham on Saturday broke down as the army seized more ground in its offensive, with insurgent lines in some areas collapsing, and a string of towns and villages accepting the return of government rule after intense bombardment.

Fighting and bombardment calmed overnight, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, but reignited on Sunday around Tafas, northwest of Deraa, along with heavy air strikes.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s offensive in the southwest aims to reclaim one of two remaining rebel strongholds in Syria, the other being Idlib and adjacent areas in the northwest. Assad’s forces captured the last enclaves near Damascus and Homs earlier this year.

Southwest Syria is a “de-escalation zone” of reduced warfare and bombardment agreed by Russia, Jordan and the United States last year. Washington warned it would respond to violations of this agreement, but has done nothing so far. Last week, rebels said the United States had told them not to expect any American military support.

The opposition’s chief negotiator in wider U.N. peace talks, Nasr al-Hariri, last week accused the United States of complicity in Assad’s southwest offensive, saying American silence could only be explained by “a malicious deal”.

Peace talks in the town of Bosra al-Sham, home to a UNESCO world heritage site, failed on Saturday when insurgents rejected Russian terms for their surrender, but began again on Sunday under the auspices of Jordan, rebel spokesman Ibrahim al-Jabawi said.

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the kingdom was engaged in intensive diplomacy with all parties in the conflict to help broker a ceasefire that would ease plight of displaced civilians.

“We are moving in all directions and with all the parties to bring a ceasefire and protect civilians,” he said in a Tweet on Saturday.

[Ironduke]

Full article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1JH0YE

Assad presses assault in southwest Syria, civilians flee

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian government forces pounded rebel-held areas of the southwest with artillery on Thursday, in a steady escalation by President Bashar al-Assad who has vowed to win back the area bordering Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 12,500 civilians had fled the town of Busra al-Hariri and nearby areas of Deraa province in the last two days. Rebel officials gave conflicting assessments of the scale of displacement.

A major government offensive in the southwest risks further escalating the seven-year-old war. The United States has warned it would take “firm and appropriate measures” in response to government violations of a “de-escalation” deal it brokered with Russia last year to contain the conflict in the southwest.

The conflict has pivoted toward the southwest since Assad, with critical help from his Russian and Iran-backed allies, crushed the last remaining pockets of rebel-held territory near Damascus and the city of Homs.

Although he has vowed to win back the area, a military campaign to recover it is set to be complicated by the interests of both U.S.-allied Jordan and Israel, which is deeply alarmed by Iran’s role in Syria.