Originally posted by WABs_OOE
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post...and neutered Assad.
The Russians cut a pretty good deal for themselves in leasing rights for larger Russian Navy presence at Tartus. It remains to be seen if they can put that lease and treaty to good advantage for themselves.
https://m.dw.com/en/new-russia-syria...sly/a-37212976
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proce...-mediterranean
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-...mediterranean/
It's been recently reported that the Trump administration is cutting an SSN from the FY2021 budget, from two to one, which doesn't seem to be a good way to bolster the already much deteriorated submarine industrial base. They are adding a DDG to make up for some of that, but that is poor compensation for the loss of a Virginia SSN now in the build plan as the ramp-up of Columbia SSBN quickly approaches which will choke off the SSN builds. Timely SSBN replacements are highest priority, and they need as many SSNs as the industrial base can support prior to that big shift in resource allocation.Last edited by JRT; 11 Feb 20,, 04:51.
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Originally posted by snapper View PostTry explaining that Assad is "neutered" to the people of Idlib.
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Originally posted by surfgun View PostOr it is purely to rebuild National Security assets that were gutted and used up during the war on terror? Deficits be damned to counter the Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific and expanded Russian submarine presence in the Atlantic.
Oh, and by the way, appropriated defense monies are now being sidetracked to building his wall. If you believe in a strong defense then that should bother you. I'm sure the Navy could use the $1-2 billion and I know the Admirals will agree with me.
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Originally posted by astralis View Postthe -how- matters.
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And as much as you disagree with Iraq, Saddam and Qadaffy are gone, Assad is neutered, and Iran has gone silent. I say that's a strategic plus over what was before.
Gaddafi was eliminated at minimal cost to the US. Assad, neutralized with minimal cost as well (although the corresponding rise of ISIS in Syria has not been without its own costs).
Saddam, not so much.
the Chinese view of the US twenty year Middle East adventure is that it's one big strategic window of opportunity. ironically, i -agree- with Trump's assessment that we're spending far too much in sh*tholes like Iraq and Afghanistan; it's just that his execution has been remarkably piss-poor.
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surfgun,
Or it is purely to rebuild National Security assets that were gutted and used up during the war on terror? Deficits be damned to counter the Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific and expanded Russian submarine presence in the Atlantic.
that shows you the priorities.
EDIT: BTW, Pence several days ago mentioned the administration's rationale for deficit spending:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/penc...or-growth.html
“The president came into office and he said, ‘First and foremost, we have to restore growth,’” Pence said.
“Deficits and debt are right in line, but it is first about getting this economy moving again and we really do believe the trajectory of this economy,” Pence said...
“The real long-term solution to the fiscal challenges in Washington, D.C., is making sure the budget of every American is growing.”
so nothing about national security/defense, everything about using deficit spending to "restore growth". which, according to the "standard" GOP talking point, supposedly does not work if it is the government spending money, right?Last edited by astralis; 10 Feb 20,, 20:04.
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Originally posted by DOR View PostOh, and just a reminder that elective wars against people who had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11 don't actually add to national security. In fact, by wasting national resources, lives, and international good will, they severely inhibit one's security.
And as much as you disagree with Iraq, Saddam and Qadaffy are gone, Assad is neutered, and Iran has gone silent. I say that's a strategic plus over what was before.
Stick with economics. Reading allies and enemies are not your fortay.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 10 Feb 20,, 18:39.
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Originally posted by surfgun View PostOr it is purely to rebuild National Security assets that were gutted and used up during the war on terror?
Oh, and just a reminder that elective wars against people who had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11 don't actually add to national security. In fact, by wasting national resources, lives, and international good will, they severely inhibit one's security.
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Originally posted by astralis View PostCongressional GOP response to the Trump budgets has been very educational for me.
i used to think that there were members of the GOP whom were for deficit-reduction above all-- a position I think is wrong-headed, but it was at least a policy position.
now it's pretty clear to me that they weren't really for deficit-reduction so much as they were for handicapping a political opponent.Last edited by surfgun; 10 Feb 20,, 18:03.
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Originally posted by NUS View Post
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Nobody cares now, but still nice to know:
https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/
Internal OPCW E-Mail
23 November, 2019
OPCW management accused of doctoring Syrian chemical weapons report
Wikileaks today publishes an e-mail, sent by a member of an OPCW fact-finding mission to Syria to his superiors, in which he expresses his gravest concern over intentional bias introduced to a redacted version of the report he co-authored.
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The Fatal Flaw in Trump's ISIS Plan
Robert Stephen Ford (born 1958) is a retired American diplomat who served as the United States Ambassador to Algeria from 2006 to 2008 and the United States Ambassador to Syria from 2010 to 2014.
Can he keep both the Turks and the Kurds on his side?
ROBERT FORD
MAY 11, 2017When Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Washington next week, he and President Donald Trump will no doubt spend considerable time discussing the future of the Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), America’s favored contingent in the war against the Islamic State. With U.S. assistance over the past two and a half years, the YPG-dominated anti-ISIS forces have recaptured some 7,400 square kilometers of northeastern Syria from the terrorist group. From Erdogan’s perspective, this strategy, embraced by the Obama administration and now Trump, is helping a Kurdish terrorist group that threatens Turkey’s security and territorial integrity—security and territorial integrity that NATO is supposed to help defend. Erdogan’s likely response: more pressure on America’s Syrian-Kurdish allies, even if that pressure undermines Washington’s goal of reducing the Arab-extremist threat in eastern Syria.
Recent events show how complicated this will be for the Trump administration. After Turkey’s bombing of YPG positions in northern Iraq and Syria on April 25, a U.S. military officer met with a known commander of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), an insurgent group that has long been a thorn in Turkey’s side, and has held a spot on the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list since 1997. The meeting provoked outrage in Turkey and drew a sharp rebuke from Erdogan. The announcement on Wednesday that the United States would arm the YPG demonstrated that Erdogan has failed to convince the Americans to reverse course with the PYD-YPG, despite intense lobbying. His visit to Washington promises to be a difficult one for both governments.
As autocratic and intemperate as he is, Erdogan isn’t actually wrong about the commingling of various Kurdish outfits. In a 2013 interview with Osman Ocalan, the brother of imprisoned PKK leader Abdallah Ocalan, Osman claimed that he and other PKK figures founded the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the YPG’s political arm, in 2003 in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, the headquarters of the PKK. The PYD is also a member of the Kurdish Communities Union, established in 2005 in Qandil by the Kurdish People’s Congress, a PKK organization that the State Department added to the FTO in January 2004. The co-chairperson of the executive council of the Kurdish Communities Union is Cemil Baylik, the acting leader of the PKK. In addition, hardened PKK activists, fighters, and commanders fill the ranks of the PYD and YPG. A YPG fighter told The Wall Street Journal that he had been with the PKK before, and that fighters regularly rotated between PKK armed entities. Iraqi Kurdish Region President Masud Barzani, a close ally of the United States against ISIS, said in March 2016 that the PYD and the PKK are basically the same entity.
Yet, the Trump administration (and Obama’s before him) keep contending, as recently as March 8, that the PYD-YPG and PKK are separate entities. But this has no basis in observable fact. And given the organic links between the YPG and the PKK, the PYD-YPG autonomous zone in northeastern Syria will likely provide strategic depth for the PKK’s ongoing and future fight against Turkey—something Erdogan knows and fears. There are reports out of Turkey already that Kurdish militants aligned with the PKK and PYD organized and trained in YPG-held northeastern Syria for attacks conducted in Istanbul, Ankara, and Bursa, in 2016.
By relying on the YPG in the fight against ISIS, the United States is helping one terror group fight against another. That’s despite its longstanding policy of not working with any organization on the FTO, as it is doing with the YPG, which is effectively synonymous with the PKK. Of course, some argue that the PKK should not be on the U.S. FTO list. An in-depth discussion on the conditions for the PKK’s removal would require months. In the meantime, however, blatantly ignoring the FTO strictures on official U.S. conduct with a listed organization like the PKK and its subsidiaries reflects utter policy incoherence, diminishing America’s credibility on fighting terrorism.
America’s infatuation with the PYD-YPG also allows it to ignore some uncomfortable realities that will haunt it long after ISIS is ousted from Raqqa. While the PYD-YPG organization is secular, it is not democratic. It has repressed political competitors, detained other Kurdish political activists, and detained and harassed independent journalists. What’s more, its emphasis on gender equality, and its insistence on imposing its political agenda, will cause problems for the future governance of Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS, and other Arab-majority towns the United States is now helping it seize from a weakened ISIS.
Consider the case of Layla Mohammed, a PYD member and women’s rights activist from the town of Tel Abayad on the Turkey-Syria border. In a conversation, a senior U.S. official spoke with admiration of her dedication and commitment to the cause of women in Syria. Over objections from some Arab community leaders in Raqqa, the PYD- and YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (an entity that serves, basically, as a fig leaf by Washington to cover the U.S.-backed YPG campaign against ISIS) named Ms. Mohammed co-chair of a new Raqqa administrative council that will rule Raqqa after ISIS is gone.
But Raqqa, more than Damascus, Homs, or Aleppo, is known among Syrians as a conservative Arab city, where many communities retain links to tribal networks extending along the Euphrates and eastwards into the Syrian desert towards Iraq. Traditional norms, including those governing the roles of women, prevail. Many Americans find the constraints placed on Arab women objectionable, and would applaud Ms. Mohammed’s activism. But as the Iraq war should have taught Washington, it cannot impose, either directly or through local proxies, its own social and political norms on conservative Middle Eastern communities without potentially provoking a counter-reaction.
Arab opinions polls from recent years make this tension plain. An unofficial survey of ISIS fighters from 2014 conducted by a Lebanese communications firm showed that defending Sunni communities under attack was the top reason recruits from other Muslim countries joined ISIS. The 2016 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey highlighted how disputes over how best to interpret Islam and perceptions that western culture is being imposed on Arab societies feeds extremist recruitment. The longstanding Arab-Kurdish ethnic competition and the PYD’s ideological agenda, such as suddenly imposing gender equality, stand to boost extremist recruitment once ISIS shifts to insurgency mode after the fall of Raqqa.
Most worrisome: evidence that Sunni-Arab extremists learn and adapt from their own mistakes. In Idlib province in northwest Syria, al-Qaeda shifted away from the brutal tactics it honed in Iraq from 2004 to 2009. Instead, by transitioning into something of an “al-Qaeda, Version 3.0,” it has reduced violence against local populations, provided infrastructure-service delivery through local administrators, and integrated more with local communities. If the Arab communities of eastern Syria perceive that the PYD-YPG seeks to dominate them, wiser al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders in Syria may be poised to pick up more recruits and embed in communities, making the coming Arab insurgency harder to contain.
For now, ISIS is still in Raqqa and hasn’t yet shifted into wide-scale insurgency mode. But it won’t be long until Washington will have to decide who will control and govern Raqqa and eastern Syria, and who will pay for it. As Colin Powell told George W. Bush in 2003, if Bush toppled Saddam, America would “own” Iraq and have to take responsibility for it. America may soon have 1,000 more troops on the ground in eastern Syria, and its proxies are seizing new territory from ISIS every week with U.S. support, including a Marine artillery battalion and regular airstrikes. There are even U.S. peacekeepers deployed in Manbij and near Tel Abayad to keep Turkish, Syrian-Arab, and Syrian-Kurdish fighters from shooting at each other. America now effectively owns eastern Syria.
The Obama administration knowingly launched America in this direction, but Trump, who denounced nation-building in his campaign, will pay the larger bills now coming due. America’s difficulties will be even worse if Turkey stokes further anti-PYD-YPG sentiment in this Arab-majority region. Thus, we will need to cut a deal with Erdogan.
The saddest part of all this is that the Syrian Kurds, like so many Middle Easterners before them, think the Americans will protect them from their enemies. They have forgotten the bitter experience of Mustafa Barzani, the Iraqi-Kurdish leader whom the Americans backed in the 1970s against the Iraqi Baathist regime, only to sell them out in 1975 when the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran cut a deal with Baghdad. Henry Kissinger halted the U.S. arms supply to Barzani, and Iraqi forces overran Iraqi Kurdistan. Mustafa Barzani, father of President Masud Barzani, had to flee and died in exile in the U.S. Especially with presidents like Obama and Trump, the Syrian Kurds of today should expect no better of the Americans.
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I don't know if Kato reads this thread or not but I would hope so. I just read something in Spiegel Online concerning the defense minister proposing a security zone in Syria. I assume manned with German soldiers.
I am curious about the political ramifications for one. What do German allies think? What do German people think? What does Kato think? You have Russia in the region to deal with. You also have Turkey who I think Germany feels illegally invaded Syria. You also have Syria where you have called for Assad to leave for years now.Last edited by tbm3fan; 28 Oct 19,, 20:26.
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