Syrian Civil War Developments

[Monash]

I haven't been following the developments of Syrian civil war recently, so the complete collapse of the Assad regime has come as a bit of a surprise. It definitely makes sense that with the defeat of Hezbollah, the Russian preoccupation with Ukraine and Iran distracted by Israeli actions, the Assad regime turned out to be much weaker than expected. However, I had not heard much about the main group involved in the offensive until recently , the HTS. They appear to be an Islamist organization with links to Al Qaeda; as far as I can tell they are not supported by any of the major powers involved in the civil war, and designated as a terrorist organization by many; so I am left wondering at how they managed to pull off the complete collapse of Assad in just two weeks

According to news reports I've read they apparently severed ties with AQ some time ago and for what it's worth given how little time has elapsed? So far there are no reports of mass 'revenge' killings, which as far as it goes is a 'plus' I guess. If the world is lucky we might be seeing a 'black swan event' unfolding i.e. an Islamist group that is astute enough to recognize that it's best interests are served by if not overtly working 'with' the west then at least not actively seeking a fight with it! Plus there are other rebel elements they'll have to work with long term including some (the Kurds) who are supported by the US.

Either way? We'll know in the next few months (if not sooner) which way they're going to swing. One thing is certain though, they didn't achieve this victory on their own. So that means they have to reach an accommodation with the other major rebel groups eventually - unless of course they really do want anarchy to ensue. Which I doubt is the case.

[InExile]

I haven't been following the developments of Syrian civil war recently, so the complete collapse of the Assad regime has come as a bit of a surprise. It definitely makes sense that with the defeat of Hezbollah, the Russian preoccupation with Ukraine and Iran distracted by Israeli actions, the Assad regime turned out to be much weaker than expected. However, I had not heard much about the main group involved in the offensive until recently , the HTS. They appear to be an Islamist organization with links to Al Qaeda; as far as I can tell they are not supported by any of the major powers involved in the civil war, and designated as a terrorist organization by many; so I am left wondering at how they managed to pull off the complete collapse of Assad in just two weeks

[Ironduke]

It's official, the rebels are in complete control of Damascus. Assad was apparently able to escape. When, whether minutes, hours, or days ago, unknown at this point.

Not long ago, one last plane, an Il-76, left Damascus, and has since "descended" near the Lebanese border while overflying the Tartus Province. Whether or not Assad was on the plane, unknown, or if it landed or was shot down, but at the very least I think it likely VIPs from the former regime were on board.

https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1865591052683395292

[Ironduke]

Neither would I. But I suspect Assad has fled Syria already.

[Monash]

You have to think the Russians would have already taken steps to get him and his immediate family out of the country, that or they'd have arranged an unfortunate accident. The problem is he no doubt has a lot of valuable intel he could share with other interested parties/nations. Assuming of course he wasn't immediately 'Gaddafied upon capture.

[Officer of Engineers]

If Assad has not already been surreptitiously been evacuated, we may see him get the Gaddafi treatment.

I would not lose sleep.

[Ironduke]

If Assad has not already been surreptitiously been evacuated, we may see him get the Gaddafi treatment.

[Ironduke]

Turns out my estimate of 24-48 hours was very conservative.

The end draws nigh, the regime has 30 minutes to perhaps an hour left. Assad is currently being hunted in Damascus, and rebel armor is moving on the presidential palace now.

[Bigfella]

If Homs has gone then Assad is gone, especially with rebels south of Damascus coming out of the woodwork and Hezbollah taking a break. It is going to be a free for all now. What a mess.

If Trump withdraws support for the Kurds then the situation may 'resolve' relatively quickly. The new regime will be able to get Turkish support by taking back refugees & taking on the Kurds, which might explain why they are co-operating with whoever the Turkish proxies in Syria are.

Bad news for Putin and Hezbollah, probably not good news for many people.

[Monash]

William Spaniel just put up a post about 48 hours ago discussing how 'bad' this was for Putin compared to other (bad) events this month. It was already out of date in terms of how far/quickly the rebels had advanced but is still worth a look because it puts this issue into perspective along side all of Russia's many other misfortunes.

[Ironduke]

Homs has fallen to HTS and the SNA. Reports are every regime official in Damascus who are not cutting deals with the rebels to surrender the city are hurriedly evacuating by helicopter. Most if not all viable ground routes out of the capital are cut. Multiple Russian airlifters are carrying out evacuations from Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia province.

3 years, 3 months, and 3 weeks after the fall of Kabul, the Russians get to experience their own version, with what I think is relatively worse strategic and geopolitical consequences for them. All those years and Russian blood and treasure spent in Syria, all of this abandoned equipment and wasted aid, it was all for naught.

Looking forward to the next Russian/Iranian domino to topple.

[Monash]

Next cab off the rank - Georgia!

[Ironduke]

Yeah, the jig is up. The Russian ships all steamed out of harbor days ago. 3 frigates, a submarine, and 2 auxillaries. The Russians have barely had time to evacuate airbases with the speed of the rebel advance. Assad's family were evacuated to Moscow a week ago. Local officials and SAA officers are fleeing the country where they can. 1500 crossed into Iraq just hours ago.

I've been watching the map of the rebel offensive for 12 days now, and I could barely step away for a few minutes without some new village, town or city being taken. What a breathtaking, lightning offensive. Assad's Syria has proved to be a house of cards, a corpse that was being propped up externally. With Hezbollah decimated by the Israelis, the Russians preoccupied in Ukraine, and the Iranians being otherwise distracted (and not to mention relentlessly attacked in Syria by Israel for years now), nobody is coming to the rescue, the whole thing has come crashing down.

Latakia, the Alawite populated coastal region where the Assads and many regime elites come from, may end up being the final redoubt for the SAA and what's left of the Assad regime. There may be more spirited resistance there against the advances of HTS and the Syrian rebels. It may even go on for some weeks or months, perhaps turning into the equivalent of what Idlib had been for the Syrian rebels for several years.

Seemingly emerging out of nowhere just days ago, and having taken to calling themselves the Southern Operations Room as of yesterday, the southern Syrian rebels, comprised of Druze and other rebel units, have now begun to enter Damascus. I don't think Homs and Damascus have days. Excluding Latakia and SDF Kurdish held areas, the rest of Syria will be in rebel hands in 24-48 hours.

While these HTS and other Idlib-based Syrian rebels have checkered pasts, it seems they're taking a different tack than some of the predecessor organizations that some of them came from. It's yet to ultimately be seen, but so far, no mass reprisals or violence against civilians, it seems they instituted decent civil governance in Idlib and seek to do the same elsewhere in Syria, they are making statements of tolerance of religious minorities, and they have made a series of pro-Western, and even one pro-Israeli statement.

While it remains to be ultimately seen what this will all evolve or devolve into in the end, for now, Iran's "Shi'ite crescent" has been smashed, with Iran having been dealt a devastating blow with regards to its external ambitions and influence. Russia has lost an ally as well, one that they could not save, which will have implications for its attempted dealings and influence with other groups/states.

[Monash]

You mean to tell me that the Russians/Wagner can't supply one single bn, or at the very least, a coy+, to defend the port?

Edit: There's more than a bn of sailors on those ships!

Purely hypothetical at this point in time of course but it could be that Russia's advisers and observers on the ground in Damascus and elsewhere could be quietly telling Moscow that the jig is up and that the rebels are likely to win unless Assad gets a lot of air and ground support asap support that Russia isn't in a position to give right now not with the clock ticking on Trumps takeover and Putin pushing to take as much ground as he can in Ukraine before then. Excellent timing on the part of the rebels though if that is the case, one might almost suspect they were provided with some very intel by a certain ally and NATO member.

We'll know soon enough I suppose if Tartus and/or Homs fall in the next few days.

[Officer of Engineers]

You mean to tell me that the Russians/Wagner can't supply one single bn, or at the very least, a coy+, to defend the port?

Edit: There's more than a bn of sailors on those ships!