Syrian Civil War Developments

[snapper]

I see the Turks are in.

[Versus]

You seem to advocate the wahabi form of Islam as the only true Islam. This is a radical view itself. Leaving the Shi'i schism aside and looking at just Sunni.

Take a look at the various schools of Islamic jurisprudence here

Why would those schools come about ? 7th century Islam would not work for them. As islam spread its followers were mostly in the minority. They needed a code that allowed them to survive. Being absolutist was only going to get them attacked and the movement stopped. The bulk of muslims live in South & SE Asia. Much closer to the equator than the Arabs. The South & SE form of Islam is more moderate as the people here have to interact with different faiths. These people should have a louder voice as they have the numbers instead of the Arabs dominating the narrative. Things are changing as other countries become more prosperous and the Gulf more anxious about its wealth in the future.


In my case the invaders came from the North & West. Arabs, Mongols & Euros. It would seem they were more into action.


The moderate forms of jihad are about inner struggle. However that is not what the radicals believe. For them its about conquest. One group wants to live with the rest the other wants to subjugate it. They don't care if they are in the minority. They will resort to ethnic cleansing if necessary to even out the demographic.

From our experience, the schools really don't make any difference. During the war in Bosnia we had both of them and they both behaved the same, so for us it is really irrelevant what they teach since the outcome is the same. That Iranian guy that was killed in Iraq, was also in Bosnia fighting against us just as well as Wahhabi taught Muslims. They beheaded and butchered the same.
The issue with the Syria is that it is on a route for energy corridor and all this mess revolves around that. How to get gas, because oil days are gone, from the dying oilfields of the Middle East to Europe and thus prevent the domination of Russian gas and thus Russian influence.So on one side you have Russia backing up Iran,that has its own agenda and on the other side you have US/UK backing up the Wahhabi Muslims and their agenda. Also don't forget China's influence and its agenda to get to Europe via "New Silk road" and their backing up of Pakistan and Iran as well. So you have an proxy proxy proxy proxy war in Syria and that is why it will never end. It will be an permanent turmoil and bloodshed, from that side.
At the end, the gas and oil will run out and that will lead to the weakening of the chains that are used to control them, both from Russia and the West. Problem is that even chained, both Russia and the West are feeding the Islam and making it stronger and stronger. All they have to do is to endure and than their time will come and when it comes, well..it will be like Serbia in 1813-1814, when the living envied the dead. Islam is a matriarchy and the womb controls it since the womb is the life itself, it will always prevail. The womb will send its minions, the so called "real men", the hyper masculine macho men to get the resources it needs and they will run, pillage, kill and burn everything in order to satisfy the womb's relentless need for more.

[Double Edge]

If the resources are scarce it wouldn't be the cradle of so many civilizations. Resources are not the problem, the human factor is. At the core, it is not about religion yet it is about mixture of factors and yes, climate does play the crucial role. Everything that is close to the equator has a serious problem with the delaying of gratification and being able to delay gratification is the key to build an civilized society.

You seem to advocate the wahabi form of Islam as the only true Islam. This is a radical view itself. Leaving the Shi'i schism aside and looking at just Sunni.

Take a look at the various schools of Islamic jurisprudence here

Why would those schools come about ? 7th century Islam would not work for them. As islam spread its followers were mostly in the minority. They needed a code that allowed them to survive. Being absolutist was only going to get them attacked and the movement stopped. The bulk of muslims live in South & SE Asia. Much closer to the equator than the Arabs. The South & SE form of Islam is more moderate as the people here have to interact with different faiths. These people should have a louder voice as they have the numbers instead of the Arabs dominating the narrative. Things are changing as other countries become more prosperous and the Gulf more anxious about its wealth in the future.

People in the west, or to be actually totally precise, people of the north are able to delay gratification and thus are able to plan ahead. Not only that they are able to plan ahead, they are able to stick to the plan as it progresses. This indicates that north favours intelligence more than anything while the south is opposite, it favours action. Doing instead of thinking. Add to that that this type of behaviour is supported and upheld by women and you are in a locked state of perpetual disarray on all fronts.

In my case the invaders came from the North & West. Arabs, Mongols & Euros. It would seem they were more into action.

Islam tried to mend this, to bring some sense of order into the chaos but unfortunately it failed as it was able only to contain it but not defeat it. That is the narrative behind jihad, constant struggle constant fighting both on the inner plane and within one self. Supernatural narrative aside, to me it looks that it simply tires to contain perpetual decay of any thought and reason, simply because the womb doesn't want to mate with the smart but only with the strong. And strong tend to be on the lower side of the IQ spectrum.

The moderate forms of jihad are about inner struggle. However that is not what the radicals believe. For them its about conquest. One group wants to live with the rest the other wants to subjugate it. They don't care if they are in the minority. They will resort to ethnic cleansing if necessary to even out the demographic.

[Versus]

They are unhappy because they are not in charge. They used to have an empire. Look at the people who ended up in ISIL, the ones who go on lone wolf rampages in the west. What demographic do they come from.

Tom Friedman put it succintly, these people never ask what is wrong with me, always what you did to me.


As if democracy is the sole preserve of the west. I was completely behind the neocons when they embarked on their project. Behind the MB in Egypt. A supporter of the arab spring and against all those who stood in its way You never know unless you try and you try and try until you succeed.

Are the Afghans looking forward to the return of the Taliban who will send them back to the dark ages ?

The problem with democracy is its expensive. It takes organisation to sustain itself. If a society is not configured in such a way because you have a few who grab power and then con the masses into accepting them as some leader then these people remain as is.

See what you said about the ME, matriarchal hell hole. Lands of scarce resources and no fertile land. It's only when the oil shows up they have an alternative.

Environment determines which way the society goes. Whether they stay content and sit put because they have everything they need or whether they have to go grab it from some one else.


Then it would not have been possible to get out of the hunter gatherer stage. No scope for civilisation. We should all be aborigines.

No Babylon, no Pharoahs, no Phonecians, no Sassanids etc etc.

The reality is constant war precludes development and most would rather be content if they had enough to eat and a roof over their head. When that gets curbed due to climate it forces a group to look for greener pastures. To go forth and conquer.

Maybe they need to cool it with the Islam and explore other avenues. Traditional, raw form of Islam was good for the 7th century, it won't work in the 21st. See, how they are alienating people around the world with their behaviour. It's caused some serious thinking in the house of Saud, the keeper of the faith. Which path they want to do down.

If the resources are scarce it wouldn't be the cradle of so many civilizations. Resources are not the problem, the human factor is. At the core, it is not about religion yet it is about mixture of factors and yes, climate does play the crucial role. Everything that is close to the equator has a serious problem with the delaying of gratification and being able to delay gratification is the key to build an civilized society. People in the west, or to be actually totally precise, people of the north are able to delay gratification and thus are able to plan ahead. Not only that they are able to plan ahead, they are able to stick to the plan as it progresses. This indicates that north favours intelligence more than anything while the south is opposite, it favours action. Doing instead of thinking. Add to that that this type of behaviour is supported and upheld by women and you are in a locked state of perpetual disarray on all fronts.
Islam tried to mend this, to bring some sense of order into the chaos but unfortunately it failed as it was able only to contain it but not defeat it. That is the narrative behind jihad, constant struggle constant fighting both on the inner plane and within one self. Supernatural narrative aside, to me it looks that it simply tires to contain perpetual decay of any thought and reason, simply because the womb doesn't want to mate with the smart but only with the strong. And strong tend to be on the lower side of the IQ spectrum.

[troung]

Turkish involvement didnt stop a steady wave of russian air strikes

The Defense Post
MENU
Staff Writer • February 20, 2020
Categories Air Middle East War
Russia conducts airstrikes against Turkey-backed forces in Idlib
Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-24
Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-24 at Latakia Air Base, Syria. Image: mil.ru

Russia on Thursday urged Turkey to stop “supporting terrorists” in Syria, saying Su-24 warplanes had carried out airstrikes against armed groups backed by Ankara.

“We urge the Turkish side, in order to avoid incidents, to cease support of the actions of terrorists and handing them arms,” the Russian defense ministry said in a February 20 statement.

Russia, which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, accused Turkey of aiding rebels fighting government forces in the northwestern Idlib province by firing artillery as the rebels carried out an attack.

The defense ministry said that on Syria’s request its bombers carried out strikes on “terrorist armed formations,” allowing the Syrian forces to repel the attack. It said four Syrian troops were injured in the attack.

Earlier Thursday, fighters from the Hamza and Sultan Murad groups, which fight under the banner of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, said they had launched an offensive against Assad’s forces and its Russian allies in the town of Nayrab in eastern Idlib province.

Separately, Turkey said two of its soldiers had been killed in an airstrike in Idlib, with Fahrettin Altun, the Turkish president’s communications director, blaming the Syrian regime.

The Russian defense ministry said it told Ankara that it had spotted Turkish artillery firing on Syrian units, wounding four soldiers.

“We note this is not the first case of support for rebel fighters by Turkey,” the defense ministry said.

Turkey asked the U.S. to deploy two Patriot missile defense-batteries to deter any further attacks, Bloomberg news reported.

“Ankara could use F-16 warplanes to strike units loyal to Assad in Idlib if the Patriots were deployed in Hatay on Turkey’s border to provide protection,” the report quoted an unnamed Turkish official as saying.

Russia on Wednesday warned Turkey against attacking Syrian forces after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to launch an operation in Syria’s Idlib region.

With reporting from AFP

[Double Edge]

The more I look at the Middle East and the more I understand women, the more I am convinced of the need for ISIL. ISIL is not defeated nor it is destroyed, it is in a state of flux and seeks a new soil where it will re emerge again. The fact that it got hold of the ground, regardless how small it was, is extremely important because it showed to the Muslims that it could be done and that it is possible and ISIL is the true nature and state of Islam, that is its original form. When seen from that perspective, it is completely understandable, at least to me, why Muslims across the whole world are unhappy and why they do the things that they do.

They are unhappy because they are not in charge. They used to have an empire. Look at the people who ended up in ISIL, the ones who go on lone wolf rampages in the west. What demographic do they come from.

Tom Friedman put it succintly, these people never ask what is wrong with me, always what you did to me.

Forcing them to accept modernity, forcing them to follow Western models will never work and the more they are forced to accept it, the more they will rebel and fight against it. The idiotic idea about re arranging the middle east into some state where they will have, democracy is so insane and so ridiculous that I don't have the words to describe it. Even if it happens, the article above, shows why it will be in vain.

As if democracy is the sole preserve of the west. I was completely behind the neocons when they embarked on their project. Behind the MB in Egypt. A supporter of the arab spring and against all those who stood in its way You never know unless you try and you try and try until you succeed.

Are the Afghans looking forward to the return of the Taliban who will send them back to the dark ages ?

The problem with democracy is its expensive. It takes organisation to sustain itself. If a society is not configured in such a way because you have a few who grab power and then con the masses into accepting them as some leader then these people remain as is.

See what you said about the ME, matriarchal hell hole. Lands of scarce resources and no fertile land. It's only when the oil shows up they have an alternative.

Environment determines which way the society goes. Whether they stay content and sit put because they have everything they need or whether they have to go grab it from some one else.

Like the Western democracy is brought down by rabid feminists and leftists, the Islamic democracy will be brought down by women from that article. Since they are the gate keepers of evolution and actually the protectors of the human race, they need the savages to protect them form the "unworthy" ones and they feel safest within the savage society. Actually they don't care about the religion, they are pro savage and the system that constantly breeds savages suits them the best. In their ideal world, the whole setting is the arena where men kill each other and the winner gets the magic triangle. That is what they want, they want natural selection trough tournament to help them pick the best genes in physical sense, since physical is all that they care. All they want is a ton of low IQ aggressive men that cannot control their impulses killing each other so that they can harvest the DNA. No rules, no democracy, no laws nothing, pure jungle where only the strongest survives and propagates its DNA.

Then it would not have been possible to get out of the hunter gatherer stage. No scope for civilisation. We should all be aborigines.

No Babylon, no Pharoahs, no Phonecians, no Sassanids etc etc.

The reality is constant war precludes development and most would rather be content if they had enough to eat and a roof over their head. When that gets curbed due to climate it forces a group to look for greener pastures. To go forth and conquer.

Maybe they need to cool it with the Islam and explore other avenues. Traditional, raw form of Islam was good for the 7th century, it won't work in the 21st. See, how they are alienating people around the world with their behaviour. It's caused some serious thinking in the house of Saud, the keeper of the faith. Which path they want to do down.

[Versus]

The more I look at the Middle East and the more I understand women, the more I am convinced of the need for ISIL. ISIL is not defeated nor it is destroyed, it is in a state of flux and seeks a new soil where it will re emerge again. The fact that it got hold of the ground, regardless how small it was, is extremely important because it showed to the Muslims that it could be done and that it is possible and ISIL is the true nature and state of Islam, that is its original form. When seen from that perspective, it is completely understandable, at least to me, why Muslims across the whole world are unhappy and why they do the things that they do. Forcing them to accept modernity, forcing them to follow Western models will never work and the more they are forced to accept it, the more they will rebel and fight against it. The idiotic idea about re arranging the middle east into some state where they will have, democracy is so insane and so ridiculous that I don't have the words to describe it. Even if it happens, the article above, shows why it will be in vain. Like the Western democracy is brought down by rabid feminists and leftists, the Islamic democracy will be brought down by women from that article. Since they are the gate keepers of evolution and actually the protectors of the human race, they need the savages to protect them form the "unworthy" ones and they feel safest within the savage society. Actually they don't care about the religion, they are pro savage and the system that constantly breeds savages suits them the best. In their ideal world, the whole setting is the arena where men kill each other and the winner gets the magic triangle. That is what they want, they want natural selection trough tournament to help them pick the best genes in physical sense, since physical is all that they care. All they want is a ton of low IQ aggressive men that cannot control their impulses killing each other so that they can harvest the DNA. No rules, no democracy, no laws nothing, pure jungle where only the strongest survives and propagates its DNA.

[Versus]

Let's see. We have 3 men with proven track records of seeking nukes, able to field national armies at the division and corps level vs now where a city can be taken or held by 300 men. And ISIL at its height never measured more than 25,000 men.

Saddam, Qaddafy, and Assad were a 100 times more powerful than what's around today and they were seeking nukes and stocking piling biochems.

No.
You don't have three men, you have one ideology symbolized by those three men and that ideology was holding the things together. That was the Ba'ath Party ideology or, lets face it, an Muslim version of the socialism. Now when the ideology is dead, only faith remains and in the case of Middle East, that means perpetual war and never ending cycle of violence.

As the main source of wealth drains aka the oil,the perspectives for the "new Golden age" will dwindle much faster and in a very short period of time, you will have unsustainable population levels and all the mess that this situation creates. The whole Middle East is basically an matriarchal hell hole where natural laws have been deified for centuries ( the Virgin Маry, the Hurries, the harems, the Arabian nights or if you like to go to Iran aka Persia where we have Scheherazade). This basically means that the identity of the man in the Middle East is totally externally validated, in essence by a woman. His worth is measured by the way how he "controls the woman" but in reality he is controlled by a woman. Other men judge him by that standard, the society judges him by that standard and therefore the whole culture revolves around "objectified" woman figure, but in essence the whole narrative of the Middle East, serves and caters to every primordial woman's need. Without a woman, the middle eastern men loses his purpose and is faced with an absolute void in his soul. That is why he needs to make an fictional construct aka the faith to fill his emptiness. The more narcissistic, the more grandiose that this fictional narrative is, the safer he feels and more "confident" in his "freedom" and identity. His aggression and barbarism is only an reflection of his deep inner fear because deep down he knows who the real master is and that notion rips him apart from the inside and he will take anything to ease that. Bounded to the womb, he has only one choice and only one direction in life and that is to be so called "alpha male", brutal savage and psychopath that cuts heads, rapes and pillages everything around him. His aggression is a pitiful expression of his inner torment, but because his identity is externalized his inner struggle is externalized also. However, since the cause of his problem is inside and he seeks the solutions outside, his existence is doomed to perpetual failure which than boomerangs back to him and increases his frustration which than induces even more anxiety that than propels him to go even further towards the outside.
He is forever poised on expansion and domination of the external in order sooth his internal emptiness. However since the universe is infinite, all his efforts are doomed to failure and he is chained to the failure forever and as every narcissist he is unable to admit that he is wrong, he will always blame the outside world for his demise, thus his life will be the stage of perpetual conflict,paranoia, aggression and futility of everything he does. Only reason why they were able to endure in this illusion for so long is the reason why this illusion exists in the first place. The womb always rewards the winners, aka the most savage and most dominant ones and trough perpetual conflict, the womb ensures that what it gets is the best of the best. The Womb also despises and hates the smart ones and this ensures that no development is possible on the vertical scale and that only ensures its brutal merciless grip on the whole society. Simply, they don't have a chance, what so ever, because the whole system is based on female pathological desire for safety aka female paranoia from being with a man that she deems "inferior" and not worthy of reproduction.

I see this every day as I have half of the Benghazi in my neighbourhood and the way how migrants behave, only confirms all this.

Here is the true reason of the Middle Eastern perpetual turmoil and the reason why they stockpiling chems and seeking nukes.

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other...ind/ar-AAGe4ZD

[Officer of Engineers]

To be clear, i'm not saying things would be better with Saddam. Trying to look forward.


We end up back in 2010 after the US leaves. There is no reason to remain in Iraq. A year from now i expect they wind up and leave.

Depending on how Iran plays this, those groups you mention start up again.

When the Iranian militias were fighting IS, their slogans & songs weren't anti-IS. They were anti-Sunni.

Who killed Ali, those who love Ayesha, bashing Abu Bakr etc.

There is a real Sunni fear that they will be at risk. The same thing happened with Assad and the Gulf sent those terrorists over. Al Nusra etc.

If it remains sectarian and contained then we wait until things clear.

If it leads to another IS, then others will be drawn in.

All you are saying is that Iraq will continue to be a freaking hostile mess and that more than anything else will prevent Iranian control over the country. The Americans with all their money could not get everyone to play nice and you think the hated broke Persian neighbours could do better?

[Officer of Engineers]

The "destabilization forces" that neutered Assad and toppled Gaddafi are a bigger threat to US natl. security (and even more to European security) than Assad and Gaddafi ever were. Letting Saddam crush them would seem to have been the better option then wouldn't it? In fact, if Saddam had been there ISIS might have never been formed in the first place.

Let's see. We have 3 men with proven track records of seeking nukes, able to field national armies at the division and corps level vs now where a city can be taken or held by 300 men. And ISIL at its height never measured more than 25,000 men.

Saddam, Qaddafy, and Assad were a 100 times more powerful than what's around today and they were seeking nukes and stocking piling biochems.

[Double Edge]

That is not an Iranian advantage. All this means is that there would be more than one group fighting each other for control and the Iranians would always face hostile opposition.

To be clear, i'm not saying things would be better with Saddam. Trying to look forward.

This is an extremely rosy picture that history does not bore out. Iran will not control Iraq. There's enough anti-Persian groups in Iraq to make the Iranians extremely miserable. Note the term anti-Persian.

We end up back in 2010 after the US leaves. There is no reason to remain in Iraq. A year from now i expect they wind up and leave.

Depending on how Iran plays this, those groups you mention start up again.

When the Iranian militias were fighting IS, their slogans & songs weren't anti-IS. They were anti-Sunni.

Who killed Ali, those who love Ayesha, bashing Abu Bakr etc.

There is a real Sunni fear that they will be at risk. The same thing happened with Assad and the Gulf sent those terrorists over. Al Nusra etc.

If it remains sectarian and contained then we wait until things clear.

If it leads to another IS, then others will be drawn in.

[Firestorm]

Pricesly. Without the US going into Iraq, Saddam would have crushed the destablization factors that toppled Qaddafy and neutered Assad.

The "destabilization forces" that neutered Assad and toppled Gaddafi are a bigger threat to US natl. security (and even more to European security) than Assad and Gaddafi ever were. Letting Saddam crush them would seem to have been the better option then wouldn't it? In fact, if Saddam had been there ISIS might have never been formed in the first place.

The Iraq war was Georgie boy's revenge crusade against the man who tried to kill his daddy. There was no method to that madness. No thought to how much it would destabilize the Middle East, no thought to how it would distract everyone and reduce deployments to the much more important conflict in Afghanistan and certainly no thought to how many people would lose their lives in Iraq. The loss of US govt. credibility due to the lies and deceit about Iraqi WMD is yet another of the unintended consequences.

I wonder if the Europeans agree that hundreds of thousands of Syrian and Libyan refugees streaming into their countries is an acceptable price to pay for getting rid of Gaddafi, Saddam and neutering Assad. Although to be fair, they were the ones with the hard-on for killing Gaddafi more than the US.

[troung]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/10...tarian-crisis/

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REPORT
Desperate, Thousands of Syrians Flee Toward Turkish Border
With bloodshed and tensions rising between Syria and Turkey, the last rebel holdout of Idlib is turning into the biggest humanitarian crisis of the war.
BY ELIZABETH TSURKOV | FEBRUARY 10, 2020, 4:48 PM
Syrian people displaced from the south of Idlib province arrive at a camp for the internally displaced
A Syrian girl rides in the back of a truck as people displaced from the south of Idlib province arrive at a camp for the internally displaced near Dayr Ballut, near the Turkish border in the rebel-held part of Aleppo province in Syria's northwest, on Feb. 4. RAMI AL SAYED/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
As snow fell on northern Syria this past week, it covered thousands of fleeing families unable to find even a piece of tarp to shelter themselves.

The wintry weather, along with the bloody onslaught by the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has turned the flight of displaced civilians in Idlib and Aleppo toward the Turkish border into the biggest humanitarian crisis yet in a war that for almost a decade has normalized mass atrocities. “No one prepared camps ahead of time, there are no tents, people are sleeping in cars and in the streets,” said Ahmad, a resident of northern Aleppo, who is attempting to help the displaced. (Like many of those interviewed for this story on WhatsApp, Ahmad wants only his first name used for fear of retribution.)

The lucky among them stay with relatives or rent a home, but very few can afford this. Homeowners in areas abutting the Turkish border are charging the displaced exorbitant sums in rent—a common price is $350 per month for a two-bedroom house, when an average salary in the region, which has rampant unemployment, is about $50.

According to new data from the United Nations, since Dec. 1, 2019, 689,000 civilians have been displaced by the government’s offensive against the last rebel holdout in Idlib, most of them women and children. Some 100,000 have been displaced only in the past week. The rapid progress of regime forces and waves of displacement it produced escalated tensions between Turkey and the Syrian forces backed by Russia. Another five Turkish soldiers were killed in recent days in an attack carried out by Assad’s forces, precipitating retaliation against Syrian army targets by Turkish forces dispatched to northwestern Syria.

“I think there are now more Turkish soldiers in Idlib than armed revolutionaries,” said Yasser, a tracker of regime airstrikes and military movement in Idlib, referring to the mass influx of Turkish soldiers and heavy weaponry into Idlib, the last bastion of the Syrian armed opposition. In early February, Turkey began dispatching multiple convoys made up of hundreds of jeeps, armored personnel carriers, tanks, multiple rocket launchers, and electronic warfare equipment into Idlib, in an effort to prevent the collapse of the last rebel-held pocket in Syria, amid rapid regime advances against it.

The fate of Idlib’s 3 million to 4 million residents now depends on Turkey’s ability to deter further regime advances. In Ankara’s eyes, a mass influx of refugees would be politically destabilizing. Turkey’s willingness to send in thousands of troops and heavy weaponry with no air cover and against Russia’s wishes shows that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is willing to take significant risks to prevent the last rebel pocket from collapsing. Turkey established several new observation posts manned by newly arrived troops. After its observation posts came under attack in early February, Turkey began firing artillery at advancing regime forces on several occasions. Thus far, Turkey has not attempted to enter the fray with its air force, which has been significantly weakened due to purges after the 2016 attempted coup.

Russia and the Assad regime still control the skies and use this dominance to destroy hospitals, bakeries, and other civilian areas in what appears to be the purposeful depopulation of entire towns, pushing civilians to flee toward the shuttered Turkish border. About 1 million civilians have been displaced in Idlib, northwestern Syria, since the start of the Syrian regime’s offensive in late April 2019, according to U.N. data.

“These are people who’ve been displaced time and time again. People are completely exhausted, and the capacities of NGOs are also exhausted,” said Asmahan Dehny, the emergency response program coordinator at the Syrian humanitarian nongovernmental organization Violet, which helped evacuate impoverished families unable to afford their escape and recently established communal tents to receive them.

The prospect of returning to live under the Assad regime terrifies most Idlib residents, even as the rebels ruling over them lost much of their popular support due to their abusiveness. A majority of Idlib’s up to 4 million residents were displaced from their homes by the regime and expect to be executed or jailed and tortured if they fall into the regime’s hands. “Even people who have nothing to do with the revolution or the factions feel that they are the target,” said Maher, a displaced novelist residing in Idlib. Similarly to many others in Idlib with whom Foreign Policy spoke in recent days, he pointed to the case of Ahmad al-Jifal, a 69-year-old man with mental health issues, who refused to leave Maarat al-Numan. After the city was captured by a Russian-backed militia in January, the fighters executed him and set fire to his corpse.

But very few who are left can afford to escape Idlib. The cheapest and most perilous smuggling attempt to Turkey costs $350 and usually ends in being caught, beaten, and sent back by Turkish border guards. Despite the risks, a greater number of Idlib residents are making this trip, usually by borrowing from friends and relatives living abroad. According to Maher, “the fence along the border and the border police reinforcements on the Turkish side of the border are making smuggling incredibly difficult. There are people who’ve tried six, seven times to cross into Turkey, getting arrested and deported each time. People are expecting death.” He said he hopes to finish a novel he’s writing about a French and Syrian archeologist digging in the ancient city of Ugarit before the regime reaches his border village.

Veteran humanitarian NGO workers are at a loss about how to handle this unprecedented crisis. “Even if we manage to secure food and water for all the displaced, we can not provide them with shelter or areas that are safe from the torrential rains to set up a tent,” said Ziad al-Sebai, the director of the media office of the Syrian humanitarian NGO Watan. “Imagine how many babies from the previously displaced and the new waves will get sick and die due to the cold and malnutrition.”

READ MORE

People walk near heavily damaged buildings in the rebel-held city of Idlib in northwestern Syria on Sept. 16.
Idlib Faces a Fearsome Future: Islamist Rule or Mass Murder
A series of agreements between Russia and Turkey, which called for establishing a demilitarized zone in Idlib and allowed Turkey to erect observation posts in Idlib starting in late 2017, broke down in April 2019; negotiations between Russia and Turkey to revive it have not been successful. Russia is determined to achieve a decisive military solution for Idlib and told Turkey it would not accept a cease-fire, even with significant concessions from the rebels. This uncompromising position was pushed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, overriding less gung-ho elements in the Russian administration.

To make matters worse, in January, Iran became much more actively involved in the campaign against the last rebel-held pocket. Previously, Iranian officials promised Turkey to stay out of the fighting in the area, wishing to preserve their relationship with Turkey. The reopening of the dormant front in western Aleppo, manned by pro-Iranian militias (including Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani fighters overseen by the Quds Force) and units within the Syrian army that are close to Iran (such as the 4th Division), signaled a shift. The rebels, forced to rebuff attacks both in southern Idlib and western and southern Aleppo, could not hold their ground. The headway of the regime turned into an all-out stampede.

“Just being able to repel attacks has become a victory in an of itself,” said Mannar, a rebel with the National Liberation Front, hours after he was forced, with a small group of fighters, to withdraw from his village of Kafr Halab, ceding it to the Iranian-backed militias. “The regime annihilated the village.” Mannar has been fighting the regime since the age of 15. He is determined to return to the front after evacuating his family to the border.

The regime’s advances on the ground also stemmed from Russian support: Training and guidance from Russian officers and mercenaries boosted the capabilities of pro-regime militias, and night vision equipment provided by Russia allowed the regime’s forces to advance during the night. In 2019, Russia altered its targeting policy in Idlib. While previously, the regime and Russia relied on indiscriminate fire across the rebel-held territory to terrorize the population, break its spirit, kill, and destroy, they now concentrate their indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on stretches of territory close to the front lines, leading nearly all civilians to escape. At the same time, Russia began relying more heavily on surveillance drones that call in airstrikes by jets. These precise strikes ensured that fighters heading to and from the front lines are targeted and killed. Even groups as small as two fighters on a single motorcycle have been hit in these precise strikes.

“We have lost many [fighters] because of the drones. When we hear them, we truly feel immense fear,” said Qusay, a veteran fighter in the ranks of the Islamist jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. “The central fighter in their ranks is the drone,” he said, describing how he and a group of fighters got stuck in a house near the front lines and could not go out to even procure food for over a day because “the drones are always in the skies, searching, and unlike the jets, there is no warning when they take off” from military air bases.

Speaking to Foreign Policy over the messaging app Telegram, the communications director of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Taqi al-Din Omar, said that “when the Russian occupier and Iranian occupier (and particularly Lebanese Hezbollah) launched a large-scale offensive on Idlib, they attacked from multiple directions (at times from six directions at the same time), using incredibly intense air strikes and artillery. The occupiers were able to achieve superiority over the mujahideen, forcing them to retreat from bombed-out areas.”

While the regime is able to rely on a large army, with many of its soldiers press-ganged into service, as well as local and foreign Shiite militias, the rebels have been unable to properly compensate for their attrition. The armed opposition factions do not publicize their losses, but daily observation of death notices on Facebook pages and WhatsApp groups of rebels indicate that the numbers have long ago exceeded 1,000 who are not easily replaceable, as many were hardened fighters with years of experience in combat under heavy fire.

Recognizing their inability to resist the advancing pro-regime forces and wishing to avoid further attrition, the factions chose to withdraw much of their fighting force from the front lines when faced with the fierce regime onslaught. Amir, a fighter with Jaysh al-Nasr, a Free Syrian Army group, who was injured in the latest offensive, said that “right now, the factions still have strength, but we can’t attrition all of it. If all of us go down [to the front lines] we will not be able to resist for more than a month, while the regime can fight for years.” Echoing conversations with many rebels in recent months, he said, “I started losing hope. My morale is zero.”

The rapid losses of the opposition and the decisive role played by the foreign actors intervening in Idlib are making the population lose faith in the rebels’ ability and willingness to resist. Those removed from the battlefield—and often resentful of the leading rebel group in Idlib, the authoritarian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—insist that a secret deal exists between Russia and Turkey under which certain areas will be “sold” or “surrendered” to the regime. By this logic, widely accepted in Idlib, resistance is futile. As a result, pleas by rebel leaders, rebel commanders, and preachers close to the factions for civilian men to remain in their homes and fight rather than retreat are met with a lackluster response.

The regime’s progress deprived hundreds of thousands of their homes, now thoroughly looted and at times torched by the conquering forces. The immense poverty of the population in Idlib meant that many could not afford to even hire a car to take them toward the Turkish border and had to be rescued by the Syria Civil Defense in large convoys, able to carry only a few belongings with them. Those more well-off left with the entire contents of their houses, knowing they will not be able to return.

Feb. 11: This story has been updated with comment.

Elizabeth Tsurkov is a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute focusing on the Levant.

Twitter: @Elizrael
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[Officer of Engineers]

The point here is Iran has been trying to subvert Iraq since Khomeni. Back then there was a strong man in charge of Iraq. There is none today.

That is not an Iranian advantage. All this means is that there would be more than one group fighting each other for control and the Iranians would always face hostile opposition.

[Double Edge]

Iran-Iraq War. Iraqi Shia willingly sided with Saddam against Khomeni's Iran.

What's interesting with that war is Iran didn't use the Shias against Saddam back then but the Kurds

What Iran’s revolution meant for Iraq | Brookings | Jan 24 2019

Both sides also targeted minority communities in the other for subversion: Iran worked on the Kurds, Iraq on the Arabs in Khuzistan and the Baluchis.

Curious isn't it. When these days Iraqi Shias are loyal to Teheran. I suppose back then the Shias were unorganised and had no choice but to comply with Saddam. There can also be an Iraqi identity at play.

Now i understand the reason behind the Iran embassy siege in London in 1980 where the SAS was called in. The terrorists wanted a free Khusistan and i wondered Khuizis what. Who are these people : )

The biggest blunder was committed by Saddam here. We know Khomeini landed in Tehran from Paris but where was he before Paris.

Iraq! He moved to Najaf in 1965 and was there until 1978 where Saddam was using him to subvert the Shah's regime. Cold war days. Then there was some falling out between the two and Saddam expels Khomeni who goes to Paris. After his arrival in Tehran he then uses his networks against Saddam and that's how the war starts.

Saddam then entices the former generals of the Shah to work against Khomeni. Same generals he was working against when he was friends with Khomeni. He gets the Shah's former army chief.

The point here is Iran has been trying to subvert Iraq since Khomeni. Back then there was a strong man in charge of Iraq. There is none today.