Syrian Civil War Developments

[astralis]

And as much as you disagree with Iraq, Saddam and Qadaffy are gone, Assad is neutered, and Iran has gone silent. I say that's a strategic plus over what was before.

the -how- matters.

Gaddafi was eliminated at minimal cost to the US. Assad, neutralized with minimal cost as well (although the corresponding rise of ISIS in Syria has not been without its own costs).

Saddam, not so much.

the Chinese view of the US twenty year Middle East adventure is that it's one big strategic window of opportunity. ironically, i -agree- with Trump's assessment that we're spending far too much in sh*tholes like Iraq and Afghanistan; it's just that his execution has been remarkably piss-poor.

[astralis]

surfgun,

Or it is purely to rebuild National Security assets that were gutted and used up during the war on terror? Deficits be damned to counter the Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific and expanded Russian submarine presence in the Atlantic.

compare the size of the DoD budget increase vs the size of the GOP TCJA tax-law.

that shows you the priorities.

EDIT: BTW, Pence several days ago mentioned the administration's rationale for deficit spending:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/penc...or-growth.html

“The president came into office and he said, ‘First and foremost, we have to restore growth,’” Pence said.

“Deficits and debt are right in line, but it is first about getting this economy moving again and we really do believe the trajectory of this economy,” Pence said...

“The real long-term solution to the fiscal challenges in Washington, D.C., is making sure the budget of every American is growing.”

so nothing about national security/defense, everything about using deficit spending to "restore growth". which, according to the "standard" GOP talking point, supposedly does not work if it is the government spending money, right?

[Officer of Engineers]

Oh, and just a reminder that elective wars against people who had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11 don't actually add to national security. In fact, by wasting national resources, lives, and international good will, they severely inhibit one's security.

Korea, Vietnam, Syria, Libya. Kosovo.

And as much as you disagree with Iraq, Saddam and Qadaffy are gone, Assad is neutered, and Iran has gone silent. I say that's a strategic plus over what was before.

Stick with economics. Reading allies and enemies are not your fortay.

[DOR]

Or it is purely to rebuild National Security assets that were gutted and used up during the war on terror?

What part of "Budget deficits are almost never about spending, which takes much too long to kick in. They are about the slaughter of innocent revenues, which happens in a flash," was unclear to you?

Oh, and just a reminder that elective wars against people who had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11 don't actually add to national security. In fact, by wasting national resources, lives, and international good will, they severely inhibit one's security.

[surfgun]

Congressional GOP response to the Trump budgets has been very educational for me.

i used to think that there were members of the GOP whom were for deficit-reduction above all-- a position I think is wrong-headed, but it was at least a policy position.

now it's pretty clear to me that they weren't really for deficit-reduction so much as they were for handicapping a political opponent.

Or it is purely to rebuild National Security assets that were gutted and used up during the war on terror? Deficits be damned to counter the Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific and expanded Russian submarine presence in the Atlantic.

[Officer of Engineers]

Nobody cares now, but still nice to know:

https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/

Legalese to CYA. As the report stated, the forensic team arrived after the American/British/French strikes. The forensic team was not there to determine the validity of the attack. That was based on time sensitive actionable intel. Best action possible based on best intel available. Was the intel wrong? Your whistle blower report at best said, he cannot confirm nor deny the intel was wrong, just that the now obsolete evidence (again time sensitive due to material degrade) does not support the intel.

[NUS]

Nobody cares now, but still nice to know:

https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/

Internal OPCW E-Mail
23 November, 2019
OPCW management accused of doctoring Syrian chemical weapons report
Wikileaks today publishes an e-mail, sent by a member of an OPCW fact-finding mission to Syria to his superiors, in which he expresses his gravest concern over intentional bias introduced to a redacted version of the report he co-authored.

[Big K]

The Fatal Flaw in Trump's ISIS Plan

Robert Stephen Ford (born 1958) is a retired American diplomat who served as the United States Ambassador to Algeria from 2006 to 2008 and the United States Ambassador to Syria from 2010 to 2014.

Can he keep both the Turks and the Kurds on his side?

ROBERT FORD

MAY 11, 2017When Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Washington next week, he and President Donald Trump will no doubt spend considerable time discussing the future of the Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), America’s favored contingent in the war against the Islamic State. With U.S. assistance over the past two and a half years, the YPG-dominated anti-ISIS forces have recaptured some 7,400 square kilometers of northeastern Syria from the terrorist group. From Erdogan’s perspective, this strategy, embraced by the Obama administration and now Trump, is helping a Kurdish terrorist group that threatens Turkey’s security and territorial integrity—security and territorial integrity that NATO is supposed to help defend. Erdogan’s likely response: more pressure on America’s Syrian-Kurdish allies, even if that pressure undermines Washington’s goal of reducing the Arab-extremist threat in eastern Syria.

Recent events show how complicated this will be for the Trump administration. After Turkey’s bombing of YPG positions in northern Iraq and Syria on April 25, a U.S. military officer met with a known commander of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), an insurgent group that has long been a thorn in Turkey’s side, and has held a spot on the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list since 1997. The meeting provoked outrage in Turkey and drew a sharp rebuke from Erdogan. The announcement on Wednesday that the United States would arm the YPG demonstrated that Erdogan has failed to convince the Americans to reverse course with the PYD-YPG, despite intense lobbying. His visit to Washington promises to be a difficult one for both governments.

As autocratic and intemperate as he is, Erdogan isn’t actually wrong about the commingling of various Kurdish outfits. In a 2013 interview with Osman Ocalan, the brother of imprisoned PKK leader Abdallah Ocalan, Osman claimed that he and other PKK figures founded the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the YPG’s political arm, in 2003 in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, the headquarters of the PKK. The PYD is also a member of the Kurdish Communities Union, established in 2005 in Qandil by the Kurdish People’s Congress, a PKK organization that the State Department added to the FTO in January 2004. The co-chairperson of the executive council of the Kurdish Communities Union is Cemil Baylik, the acting leader of the PKK. In addition, hardened PKK activists, fighters, and commanders fill the ranks of the PYD and YPG. A YPG fighter told The Wall Street Journal that he had been with the PKK before, and that fighters regularly rotated between PKK armed entities. Iraqi Kurdish Region President Masud Barzani, a close ally of the United States against ISIS, said in March 2016 that the PYD and the PKK are basically the same entity.

Yet, the Trump administration (and Obama’s before him) keep contending, as recently as March 8, that the PYD-YPG and PKK are separate entities. But this has no basis in observable fact. And given the organic links between the YPG and the PKK, the PYD-YPG autonomous zone in northeastern Syria will likely provide strategic depth for the PKK’s ongoing and future fight against Turkey—something Erdogan knows and fears. There are reports out of Turkey already that Kurdish militants aligned with the PKK and PYD organized and trained in YPG-held northeastern Syria for attacks conducted in Istanbul, Ankara, and Bursa, in 2016.

By relying on the YPG in the fight against ISIS, the United States is helping one terror group fight against another. That’s despite its longstanding policy of not working with any organization on the FTO, as it is doing with the YPG, which is effectively synonymous with the PKK. Of course, some argue that the PKK should not be on the U.S. FTO list. An in-depth discussion on the conditions for the PKK’s removal would require months. In the meantime, however, blatantly ignoring the FTO strictures on official U.S. conduct with a listed organization like the PKK and its subsidiaries reflects utter policy incoherence, diminishing America’s credibility on fighting terrorism.

America’s infatuation with the PYD-YPG also allows it to ignore some uncomfortable realities that will haunt it long after ISIS is ousted from Raqqa. While the PYD-YPG organization is secular, it is not democratic. It has repressed political competitors, detained other Kurdish political activists, and detained and harassed independent journalists. What’s more, its emphasis on gender equality, and its insistence on imposing its political agenda, will cause problems for the future governance of Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS, and other Arab-majority towns the United States is now helping it seize from a weakened ISIS.

Consider the case of Layla Mohammed, a PYD member and women’s rights activist from the town of Tel Abayad on the Turkey-Syria border. In a conversation, a senior U.S. official spoke with admiration of her dedication and commitment to the cause of women in Syria. Over objections from some Arab community leaders in Raqqa, the PYD- and YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (an entity that serves, basically, as a fig leaf by Washington to cover the U.S.-backed YPG campaign against ISIS) named Ms. Mohammed co-chair of a new Raqqa administrative council that will rule Raqqa after ISIS is gone.

But Raqqa, more than Damascus, Homs, or Aleppo, is known among Syrians as a conservative Arab city, where many communities retain links to tribal networks extending along the Euphrates and eastwards into the Syrian desert towards Iraq. Traditional norms, including those governing the roles of women, prevail. Many Americans find the constraints placed on Arab women objectionable, and would applaud Ms. Mohammed’s activism. But as the Iraq war should have taught Washington, it cannot impose, either directly or through local proxies, its own social and political norms on conservative Middle Eastern communities without potentially provoking a counter-reaction.

Arab opinions polls from recent years make this tension plain. An unofficial survey of ISIS fighters from 2014 conducted by a Lebanese communications firm showed that defending Sunni communities under attack was the top reason recruits from other Muslim countries joined ISIS. The 2016 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey highlighted how disputes over how best to interpret Islam and perceptions that western culture is being imposed on Arab societies feeds extremist recruitment. The longstanding Arab-Kurdish ethnic competition and the PYD’s ideological agenda, such as suddenly imposing gender equality, stand to boost extremist recruitment once ISIS shifts to insurgency mode after the fall of Raqqa.

Most worrisome: evidence that Sunni-Arab extremists learn and adapt from their own mistakes. In Idlib province in northwest Syria, al-Qaeda shifted away from the brutal tactics it honed in Iraq from 2004 to 2009. Instead, by transitioning into something of an “al-Qaeda, Version 3.0,” it has reduced violence against local populations, provided infrastructure-service delivery through local administrators, and integrated more with local communities. If the Arab communities of eastern Syria perceive that the PYD-YPG seeks to dominate them, wiser al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders in Syria may be poised to pick up more recruits and embed in communities, making the coming Arab insurgency harder to contain.

For now, ISIS is still in Raqqa and hasn’t yet shifted into wide-scale insurgency mode. But it won’t be long until Washington will have to decide who will control and govern Raqqa and eastern Syria, and who will pay for it. As Colin Powell told George W. Bush in 2003, if Bush toppled Saddam, America would “own” Iraq and have to take responsibility for it. America may soon have 1,000 more troops on the ground in eastern Syria, and its proxies are seizing new territory from ISIS every week with U.S. support, including a Marine artillery battalion and regular airstrikes. There are even U.S. peacekeepers deployed in Manbij and near Tel Abayad to keep Turkish, Syrian-Arab, and Syrian-Kurdish fighters from shooting at each other. America now effectively owns eastern Syria.

The Obama administration knowingly launched America in this direction, but Trump, who denounced nation-building in his campaign, will pay the larger bills now coming due. America’s difficulties will be even worse if Turkey stokes further anti-PYD-YPG sentiment in this Arab-majority region. Thus, we will need to cut a deal with Erdogan.

The saddest part of all this is that the Syrian Kurds, like so many Middle Easterners before them, think the Americans will protect them from their enemies. They have forgotten the bitter experience of Mustafa Barzani, the Iraqi-Kurdish leader whom the Americans backed in the 1970s against the Iraqi Baathist regime, only to sell them out in 1975 when the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran cut a deal with Baghdad. Henry Kissinger halted the U.S. arms supply to Barzani, and Iraqi forces overran Iraqi Kurdistan. Mustafa Barzani, father of President Masud Barzani, had to flee and died in exile in the U.S. Especially with presidents like Obama and Trump, the Syrian Kurds of today should expect no better of the Americans.

[tbm3fan]

I don't know if Kato reads this thread or not but I would hope so. I just read something in Spiegel Online concerning the defense minister proposing a security zone in Syria. I assume manned with German soldiers.

I am curious about the political ramifications for one. What do German allies think? What do German people think? What does Kato think? You have Russia in the region to deal with. You also have Turkey who I think Germany feels illegally invaded Syria. You also have Syria where you have called for Assad to leave for years now.

[Double Edge]

Right now this topic is missing a certain troung : )

[Double Edge]

no no no...

what i can not express enough is that ypg=pkk=pjak... in every meaning of the word they are the same organisation...

ypg is Syrian branch, pkk is Turkish branch, pjak is Iranian branch.

ypg & Pjak & Iraqi kurds do not engage in political violence in Turkey. Unlike PKK. Why make more enemies ?

Turkey and the Kurds: What goes around comes around | TWMES | Oct 16 2019

and Erdo's turning his back to Syrian Esad is exactly after 2011's Panetta visit....(?!?) (isis was an artificial thing.. has no root within the society... they killed that same society infact...you would live here you could understand very clearly that)

what do you think of the below excerpt from above link

The notion that there was no alternative to the Turkish intervention in Syria is further countered by the fact that Turkish PKK negotiations that started in 2012 led a year later to a ceasefire and a boosting of efforts to secure a peaceful resolution.

The talks prompted imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to publish a letter endorsing the ceasefire, the disarmament and withdrawal from Turkey of PKK fighters, and a call for an end to the insurgency. Mr. Ocalan predicted that 2013 would be the year in which the Turkish Kurdish issues would be resolved peacefully.

The PKK's military leader, Cemil Bayik, told the BBC three years later that "we don't want to separate from Turkey and set up a state. We want to live within the borders of Turkey on our own land freely.”

The talks broke down in 2015 against the backdrop of the Syrian war and the rise as a US ally of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State of the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the People's Protection Units (YPG).

This is where Erdo loses it

Bitterly opposed to the US-YPG alliance, Turkey demanded that the PKK halt its resumption of attacks on Turkish targets and disarm prior to further negotiations.

Turkey responded to the breakdown and resumption of violence with a brutal crackdown in the southeast of the country and on the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).

Nonetheless, in a statement issued from prison earlier this year that envisioned an understanding between Turkey and Syrian Kurdish forces believed to be aligned with the PKK, Mr. Ocalan declared that “we believe, with regard to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the problems in Syria should be resolved within the framework of the unity of Syria, based on constitutional guarantees and local democratic perspectives. In this regard, it should be sensitive to Turkey’s concerns.”

a powerful ypg would bring Syria,Turkey&Iran together...

How ?

Turkey has already defused the iraqi kurds. Now there was a chance to defuse the syrian kurds but it was missed. If it was taken then all Turkey had to do was come up with some arrangement with PKK. Erdo seemed well placed to solve this problem but the solution slipped away. The Kurd problem in Turkey reminds me of LTTE problem in Sri Lanka. War of identity.

Then there is pjak. What happens to them. They are Iran's problem. Turkey got 3 out 4. Result is stronger Turkey. Stronger Syria.

But now YPG will ally with PKK to create more trouble for Turkey. And the captured ISIS fighters will escape and reconstitute themselves and become a headache for every one else. What happens then ?

US comes back and allies with YPG again to fight ISIS. Maybe not : )

Like US support when Erdos rising to power back in 2002.

US is again confused who to support ..

just like in S-400 incident... the winner was only the Russia...

Russia is a winner in the sense they are a partner that can be relied on. Gulf countries who disagree with Russian support of Syria still respect that support.

Anything more remains to be seen. Russia & Iran are together. China is behind them.

Saudis & Iran do a swap through Russian mediation. Iran lets go of Yemen for Saudi recognition and support for Syria.

Then there is Israel. They have been quiet. Little too quiet. It means the Americans are still in play to prevent a land bridge between Iran & Lebanon.

Where is Turkey in all of this ? further adrift or closer to shore. Tell me.

[Big K]

Here's a counter point.

What if Erdo fought Da'esh with the YPG support in Syria like Obama wanted.

Now what happens to PKK ? they become weak in Turkey because now Kurds can see Erdo is helping them

YPG are only interested in Syria.

But Erdo was afraid that PKK + YPG together becomes more dangerous for Turkey.

It was said inn 2014 when Obama wanted this that Erdo had to acquiesce to the Turkish Nationalists.

So he refused to fight Da'esh because YPG is a bigger threat. In his mind.

So Obama sent in SF operators to fight Da'esh.

This armed american involvement plus lethal weapons to YPG only came to light on this board two years later

no no no...

what i can not express enough is that ypg=pkk=pjak... in every meaning of the word they are the same organisation...

ypg is Syrian branch, pkk is Turkish branch, pjak is Iranian branch.

and Erdo's turning his back to Syrian Esad is exactly after 2011's Panetta visit....(?!?) (isis was an artificial thing.. has no root within the society... they killed that same society infact...you would live here you could understand very clearly that)



Dont you see? The only winner from Turkey vs West scenario is Russia... a powerful ypg would bring Syria,Turkey&Iran together...

Like US support when Erdos rising to power back in 2002.

US is again confused who to support ..

just like in S-400 incident... the winner was only the Russia...

[Double Edge]

isis support can and will backfire Erdo hugely and that will weaken him further (he already lost too much support) so he can not free any isis members.

Here's a counter point.

What if Erdo fought Da'esh with the YPG support in Syria like Obama wanted.

Now what happens to PKK ? they become weak in Turkey because now Kurds can see Erdo is helping them

YPG are only interested in Syria.

But Erdo was afraid that PKK + YPG together becomes more dangerous for Turkey.

It was said inn 2014 when Obama wanted this that Erdo had to acquiesce to the Turkish Nationalists.

So he refused to fight Da'esh because YPG is a bigger threat. In his mind.

So Obama sent in SF operators to fight Da'esh.

This armed american involvement plus lethal weapons to YPG only came to light on this board two years later

[Big K]

pay attention particularly after 1:25...

[Big K]

.... But would you rather a imperialistic absolutist Daesh/ISIS neo 'Califate' as a neighbour or a vaguely civilised new Kurdistan whom the West can reign in?

no not at all. i very well remember how things turned out with Iraq's northern region... it is simply a base for terrorists... a free Kurdistan founded by the SAME terrorists with those in Iraq will be a way to unite Iran,Syria&Turkey... not to mention Russia...

so this can be a real backfire to US interests in the region...

I hear that some 700 Daesh/ISIS prisoners, some of them apparently Turkish have escaped this morning. As with anything in Syria I cannot say if these reports are true. Was this Erdogan's intent? Turnips? If not did the Orangutan in the White House endorse the Turkish foray against the only real allies the West has in the area? I am just bemused by this dishonourable betrayal.

isis support can and will backfire Erdo hugely and that will weaken him further (he already lost too much support) so he can not free any isis members.

actually Erdo's support for the groups against Esad commenced right after Panetta's visit in 2011 (he was head of CIA then)...

suddenly Erdo turned his back to Esad whom he was calling "my brother".. if you believe in coincidences ;)