2020 American Political Scene

[surfgun]

The Biden’s of Mumbai?
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/5-bi...-india-2322393

[Bigfella]

And the Rattus norvegicus desertion continues....

My 'Tsar's train' analogy seems to be holding up. ;-)

[Gun Grape]

Welcoming back an old friend...
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1206133.shtml

Who doesn't like a bowl of noodles. Zhajiangmian or more specific Jajangmyeon the Korean version of the dish is one of my favorite dishes when it comes to comfort food. Not so big on the Mountain Yam Salad. The cucumber salad is a side dish at most meals

Yea its to bad that Biden is willing to eat local food and be respectful of a host country instead of doing like the Orange clown and eating hamburgers in Japan.

Is this really all you got?

[DOR]

Welcoming back an old friend...
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1206133.shtml

Ah, yes.
Global Times.
The old friend of ... Xi Jinping ?

[TopHatter]

The retired general and Trump ally who called Obama a 'terrorist leader' is taking over the Pentagon's top policy job

Retired US Army Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, a controversial Trump ally and Fox News guest who spread falsehoods about former President Barack Obama, is taking over the Pentagon's top policy post following Tuesday's sudden resignation of James Anderson, Defense One reported.

Tata, who was installed in the Pentagon through an end-run around Congress by the Trump administration, has been performing the duties of the deputy under secretary of defense for policy for Anderson, who had been serving as acting under secretary of defense since John Rood was forced out earlier this year.

A memo written by acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller, who replaced Mark Esper Monday, and obtained by Defense One said that Tata will, "effective immediately," be performing the duties of the under secretary of defense for policy, the top Pentagon policy position and the third most important job in the Department of Defense.

The White House tapped Tata to become the next under secretary of defense for policy on June 10. A couple of days later, CNN reported that it had discovered alarming tweets not only critical of Obama but in many cases, objectively false.

He called Obama a "Muslim," a "terrorist" who "normalized Islam for America," and, at one point, a "terrorist leader." The tweets triggered concern among lawmakers.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts tweeted a few days after the CNN report came out that an "Islamaphobic conspiracy theorist who called Obama a 'terrorist leader' should not be #3 at the Pentagon," adding that Tata "is by far Trump's most unqualified & ill-suited senior defense nominee."

In late June, Tata walked back his tweets, saying that he has come to "deeply regret" his previous Twitter posts, most of which have been deleted.

In late July, Tata's Senate confirmation hearing was canceled following strong opposition from Democrats and concern by some Republicans. Tata withdrew his name from consideration in early August, but then the Trump administration appointed him to a related senior position in the Pentagon that does not require congressional approval.

As the senior official performing the duties of the deputy under secretary of defense policy, he reported to Anderson, who Politico reported resigned after confrontations with the White House over personnel issues.

Anderson reportedly opposed attempts by the White House to install controversial persons in the Pentagon, such as Rich Higgins, a conspiracy theorist who was fired from the National Security Council who had been tapped to be Tata's chief of staff.

The Department of Defense did not respond to Insider's request for comment on Tata's new position.
______________

Tata "deeply regrets" his repeated and baseless slander of Obama.....Uh, why do you think Trump hired you in the first place?

[TopHatter]

Intelligence officials have found a silver lining to Trump's 'scant attention' in briefings

President Trump could be a major threat to national security once he leaves the White House.

While he's president, Trump is free to declassify and disperse any U.S. intelligence secrets he'd like. That privilege ends once President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in, but current and former officials tell The Washington Post Trump is likely to retain and spread those secrets once he leaves office.

All U.S. presidents "exit the office with valuable national secrets in their heads," including deep knowledge of nuclear weapons processes, intelligence assets within foreign governments, and weapons development, the Post describes. But this is the first time an incoming president "has ever had to fear that his predecessor might expose the nation's secrets," the Post continues. Trump's boastful personality, his belief in "deep state" conspiracies, and his millions of dollars of debt set him up to be a "classic counterintelligence risk," the Post reports.

One former official envisioned Trump bragging about Air Force One's technical capabilities or the locations of U.S. spy drones at a rally or in conversation with a foreign leader. John Fitzpatrick, a former intelligence officer, also acknowledged ex-presidents retain information about "special military capabilities, details about cyber weapons and espionage," and U.S. satellites.

Then again, Trump has reportedly rarely paid much attention during intelligence briefings, which he rarely holds to begin with. "A knowledgeable and informed president with Trump's personality characteristics, including lack of self-discipline, would be a disaster," Jack Goldsmith, a Justice Department official in the George W. Bush administration, told the Post. "The only saving grace here is that he hasn't been paying attention."
________

Trump's gotta make money somehow. It's not like he can rely on things like "business acumen" to pay his mountain of debt.

[Oracle]

well, SECDEF just got fired via tweet; looks like “Yesper” wasn’t “Yes” enough for him.

should someone tell Trump that making a bunch of personal enemies as he goes out the door is probably ill-advised?

Some old proverb says, ‘one can bring a donkey to the pond, but one cannot make the donkey drink water from the pond‘. I remember making this point some years back that making enemies is not the right thing to do, more so for a shady businessman turned POTUS.

[tantalus]

Common sense: don't cut government spending until private spending can replace it.
However, do bear in mind that it is the House, and not the Senate, that controls the purse strings.

Sorry i meant to get back to you on this earlier.

He is referring to Modern Monetary theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory which I am sure you will agree doesnt fall into common sense as its not mainstream.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/ray-...nevitable.html

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio says the coming of Modern Monetary Theory is inevitable to address wealth disparity in the U.S.

The idea is backed by presidential candidate Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Critics say using zero interest rates to finance big government spending could lead to hyperinflation.

The rabbit hole that leads to an entire warren.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-t...dern-ray-dalio

i just what to say that all this discussion pre dates covid.

Muhammed El Erian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_A._El-Erian made the point on bloomberg a few months back that the unthinkable has happened and the 2 big economic theories that are not mainstream and "impossible" to test MMT and UBI have been implemented in part due to the covid crises. Its fair to say thats a bit of an exaggeration but certainly also fair to say the spirit of what he was saying was that some elements of MMT and UBI have been played around in 2020. He suggested that in may not be so easy tp get the rabbit back in the hat in the years to come. Interesting times for those who study macro economic theories.

[GVChamp]

Your prior video link seems to have gone dead. I tried to click on it and an error popped up.

MMT is a garbage theory . UBI is slightly less garbage, but unnecessary and the "humans will become replaced by machines!" argument is bunk. Andrew Yang buying into it is evidence that very smart people can believe very dumb things.

[astralis]

lol, GVChamp and Paul Krugman agree on multiple things! :)

[DOR]

Sorry i meant to get back to you on this earlier.

He is referring to Modern Monetary theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory which I am sure you will agree doesnt fall into common sense as its not mainstream.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/ray-...nevitable.html



The rabbit hole that leads to an entire warren.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-t...dern-ray-dalio

i just what to say that all this discussion pre dates covid.

Muhammed El Erian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_A._El-Erian made the point on bloomberg a few months back that the unthinkable has happened and the 2 big economic theories that are not mainstream and "impossible" to test MMT and UBI have been implemented in part due to the covid crises. Its fair to say thats a bit of an exaggeration but certainly also fair to say the spirit of what he was saying was that some elements of MMT and UBI have been played around in 2020. He suggested that in may not be so easy tp get the rabbit back in the hat in the years to come. Interesting times for those who study macro economic theories.

tantalus,
Modern Monetary Theory dates back to WWII, when Abba Lerner called it “Functional Finance,” so not that new. The core position is that congress should use fiscal policy to macro manage the economy, rather than the Fed using interest rates and bond issues. The main problem is that congress gave up on fiscal policy many, many years ago, and left it to the Fed (Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke).

Universal basic income as a macroeconomic tool (rather than as an anti-inequality or anti-poverty tool) arose out of the Bernanke's 2002 “helicopter” money drop speech, in which he said the last resort for dealing with deflation would be to dump massive amounts of money out of helicopters until people start to actually pick it up and spend it.

Given that we have seen significant easing of the loss of demand following stimulus payments to households, it is very difficult to conclude that a universal basic income is not useful. And, given that both theories have worked, when conditions and policymakers were right, one has to ask why anyone would want to “put them back into the hat.”

[GVChamp]

Money drops via UBI seem less effective then a lot of other options, particularly when the psychology behind them is "Freedom Dividends." You don't pay out more dividends when the nation is doing poorly, but that's when you want your money drops.

Plus the arguments for UBI are more libertarian "get rid of all these programs" or more Yang-ish "we need these because a lot of people are about to get put out of work."

There are better automatic stabilizers that we can use

[DOR]

Money drops via UBI seem less effective then a lot of other options, particularly when the psychology behind them is "Freedom Dividends." You don't pay out more dividends when the nation is doing poorly, but that's when you want your money drops.

Plus the arguments for UBI are more libertarian "get rid of all these programs" or more Yang-ish "we need these because a lot of people are about to get put out of work."

There are better automatic stabilizers that we can use

Such as?
And, what do you mean by "You don't pay out more dividends when the nation is doing poorly, but that's when you want your money drops." ?

[GVChamp]

UBI pays out $X/month regardless of overall economic conditions, it isn't a counter-cyclical policy. If you wanted to make it counter-cyclical, you'd want 2X during recessions and .5X during business cycle peaks. However, this won't work: the preferred psychological justification is that this is a Freedom Dividend, and you don't pay out twice as many dividends when the government is running trillion dollar deficits.

Better automatic stabilizers are things like unemployment benefits, which you can enhance if the economy is truly in the crapper. You can also do payroll tax cuts, boost EITC, juice food stamps, or just literally drop money from helicopters.

[DOR]

UBI pays out $X/month regardless of overall economic conditions, it isn't a counter-cyclical policy. If you wanted to make it counter-cyclical, you'd want 2X during recessions and .5X during business cycle peaks. However, this won't work: the preferred psychological justification is that this is a Freedom Dividend, and you don't pay out twice as many dividends when the government is running trillion dollar deficits.

Better automatic stabilizers are things like unemployment benefits, which you can enhance if the economy is truly in the crapper. You can also do payroll tax cuts, boost EITC, juice food stamps, or just literally drop money from helicopters.

Ah, the penny drops.
The difference is between the universal basic income and this year's stimulus payout. That's where the confusion arises.
The first would not change due to economic circumstances unless that was built into the law: COLA, for example, or an extra bump when unemployment hits a trigger point.
The second, this year's version, is a one-off that no one expects to persist into the future, except in extraordinary, one-off type circumstances.
I don't think the size of the budget deficit (trillions? percent of GDP? cost of servicing?) would matter in either case.

Unemployment benefits are fine, and extendable, for those employed by companies that pay unemployment insurance for them.
Payroll tax cuts, ditto, although it really is just stealing from the future.
The Earned Income Tax Credit works a charm, for those employed to a pay level requiring taxes, and able to wait a year or more for some small relief.
Food stamps are generally not considered part of economic stabilizers, but never mind: they provide part of the safety net come what may.
Helicopters are a euphemism for the kinds of stimulus checks sent out this year: indiscriminate (no means testing delays), quick, and of a useful amount.