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  • Originally posted by Monash View Post
    It's still a huge chunk of land to try and to hold on to long term with just 130,000 soldiers (minus casualties). Even if defeating the Ukrainian army and overthrowing the current government can be achieved as quickly and easily as you claim Putin would still have to invest a massive amount of precious military, political and economic capital just in keeping a pro-Moscow regime in place in defiance of the will of most of the population. There's simply no way he can win a 'hearts and mind' campaign amongst the bulk of the the Ukrainian population at this point in time. At best he'd win over the ethic Russian minority (and probably not all of them). And they're mostly scattered along the eastern border of the country anyway.

    So, given the above he might possibly hope to gouge a few more Russian 'enclaves' out from eastern Ukraine in order to return them to the 'Rodina', just like he has done with Odessa. But even that comes at the cost of turning the rest of the rest of country vehemently anti-Russian for generations to come, and completely blowing relations with NATO, the EU and the US, thereby crippling the economy. So what's the point?
    The reason why Putin stays in power is because no one has any clue what depths he will goto to get what he wants. Anyone telling you he knows what Putin is going to do is trying to sell you water skiing tours through salty crocs feeding grounds. All we can tell you is what's he's capable of doing and he's capable of taking Kiev in 72 hours.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 14 Feb 22,, 17:41.
    Chimo

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    • I appreciate the Russians' efforts trying to make the world look like the Diplomacy game map where Ukraine has no access to the Black Sea.

      Per a Georgian's translation, the above is from Russian TV of "Proposal of Division for Ukraine" compared to pre-2014. Nice of the Russians to be friendly to Poland and give them bits of western Ukraine. :D

      Last edited by rj1; 14 Feb 22,, 19:31.

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        The only place outside of Russia in abundance, China.

        They lost 4 warehouses of them in 2015 which was never replaced and should have been.

        Unfortunately, we have not trained them on how to evade reccee-by-fire.
        Sir, you seem to think the Ukrainian Army of 2022 is the same inept group of 2014. Totally different force. They have almost 1,000 pieces of tube artillery and over 350 GRAD style rockets.

        And as China is on better terms with Putin than us, what makes you think the Chinese would sell to us? And who will man them?

        You keep saying they have made preparations. We are all working from open source ateriel...at least, we better be. I am sure there are preparations made of which we are unaware. The Ukrainians have been leery to fully mobilize too soon as it could wreck a very tenuous economic recovery, one that was already limping along before getting hit hard by COVID.

        I believe all we can do now is wait and see.
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

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        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          Sir, you seem to think the Ukrainian Army of 2022 is the same inept group of 2014. Totally different force. They have almost 1,000 pieces of tube artillery and over 350 GRAD style rockets.
          It's not the tubes that they are short. It's the reloads. As I stated, they have not replaced 4 warehouse full. I absolutely agree that the Ukrainians are a different force than the one 2014. Unfortunately for them, the Russians are also a different force. The gap between the Russians and the Ukrainians is wider today than it was in 2014.

          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          And as China is on better terms with Putin than us, what makes you think the Chinese would sell to us?
          No but they will sell to the Ukrainians. We just have to watch the Ukrainians like a hawk. We give them the money. We watch the money going into the account destined for the arms sale. We watch them signed the cheque to the Chinese. We watch them so they can't cancel the cheque to the Chinese. And we watch them not to sell the Chinese stuff on the black market.

          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          And who will man them?
          That's the crust of it. They should already have the crews trained and ready, as in the reserves. As in they should have done this 4 years ago. They don't.

          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          You keep saying they have made preparations. We are all working from open source ateriel...at least, we better be. I am sure there are preparations made of which we are unaware. The Ukrainians have been leery to fully mobilize too soon as it could wreck a very tenuous economic recovery, one that was already limping along before getting hit hard by COVID.
          We and the Russians were hit with the same virus and they and we are prepared. But the most damning assessement is from Gen Milley. Kiev in 72 hours. Before this, I would have assumed the Russians would not able to reach Kiev. Gen Milley's assessment tells me that the DOD (with far more intel than you and I have access to) has determined there is zero defence-en-depth (the traditional counter to maneuver war) to stop the Russians. Our open source intel could not match Gen Milley's input.

          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
          I believe all we can do now is wait and see.
          I don't want to. I don't want to see an invasion

          Chimo

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          • US closing their embassy. They must expect a full route of Ukrainian forces straight to Kiev and not some minor incursions.

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            • Russian TV channels fuel Ukraine tensions


              BBC Monitoring

              Rossiya 1Copyright: Rossiya 1

              Since 2014, pro-Kremlin Russian media has accused Ukrainian forces of committing atrocities against civilians, often with evidence in short supply.

              Over the weekend, flagship political news shows on Russia's state Rossiya 1 channel and Gazprom-Media's NTV aired dispatches from Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

              They highlighted memorials to civilians, including children, killed in the conflict, implying that they were the victims of war crimes.

              Rossiya 1's presenter Dmitry Kiselyov claimed "thousands of civilians have been tortured and savagely killed" in Donbas, and accused the West of "stubbornly ignoring the crimes of the Kyiv regime". These statements were accompanied by a caption reading: "They are preparing to kill".

              A correspondent's report later showed a separatist fighter claiming that Ukrainian nationalists had threatened to "come and kill and butcher all of you”.

              Notably, some of the programmes' claims were about earlier stages of the conflict and there was virtually no reporting of actual fighting going on there at the moment.

              ———————————————————————-

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              • Originally posted by Bloomberg_Quicktake
                14 February 2022
                Zelenskiy confirms Ukraine's desire to join NATO

                Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday confirmed Ukraine's desire to join NATO amid Russian demands for guarantees the alliance would not allow its neighbor to become a member.

                "We would like NATO membership. It would ensure our security, our territorial sovereignty. It's fixed in the Ukrainian Constitution," Zelenskyy said at a news briefing with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

                The U.S. has issued warnings of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine amid ongoing attempts to deescalate soaring tensions.

                Moscow wants guarantees from the West that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members, and that the alliance will halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe, the demands flatly rejected by the West.

                "Many leaders hint slightly that Ukraine shouldn't risk and talk constantly about its membership in the alliance. Because these risks are connected to Russia's reaction. I think that no one hides it anymore. I think we should be sincere. It's our decision to take anyway," Zelenskyy told reporters after talks with Scholz.

                Scholz's first visit to Kyiv since taking office in December comes before his first visit to Moscow on Tuesday.

                It's part of a flurry of in-person and remote diplomacy by Western leaders.

                Scholz was taking a message of solidarity to Zelenskyy after criticism of Germany for its refusal to join some allies in sending lethal weapons to the country.

                Russia’s top diplomat advised President Vladimir Putin on Monday to keep talking with the West on Moscow’s security demands.

                .

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                • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                  US closing their embassy. They must expect a full route of Ukrainian forces straight to Kiev and not some minor incursions.
                  There will be lots of civilian casualties if this comes to pass.

                  I look at this and I look at Putin and I don't feel confident. Putin is old school and not a fan of the downfall of Russia and the West seemingly deciding what happens along his western border with no input from Russia. A Russia which has always felt she has the right to a big say in what happens along her border, to specify what the borders look like, and as to how those countries align themselves with. I feel he really wants the old Russia back and not in the sense of Communist Russia. I also believe that Putin wants some God Damned Respect from the West and will do whatever to get that GOD DAMNED RESPECT in capitals...

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                  • Have we discussed what Putin has to gain from invading and overthrowing the Kiev government? Is it just strategic advantage? Because it sure won't be economic or political (at least internationally). Because it feels like he bet on fracturing NATO at a time when the US is weak and gain concessions, but instead has unified NATO and now has to invade to avoid pulling back and looking weak?
                    Last edited by statquo; 15 Feb 22,, 01:35.

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                    • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                      Have we discussed what Putin has to gain from invading and overthrowing the Kiev government? Is it just strategic advantage? Because it sure won't be economic or political (at least internationally). Because it feels like he bet on fracturing NATO at a time when the US is weak and gain concessions, but instead has unified NATO and now has to invade to avoid pulling back and looking weak?
                      I've asked a similar question myself. It seems to be coming down to one of two options;

                      A) Putin initiates a very limited' military offensive designed to gain a few more clicks of Ukrainian territory along pro Russian parts of the border. Then declares 'mission accomplished' holding in place while immediately proposing a cease fire. If that's accepted he then starts pulling back the bulk of Russian forces along the frontier proclaiming the creation an additional 'buffer zone ' for the protection of Russia/ethnic Russians or similar BS designed purely for domestic consumption. The risks - just because he says 'stop' at some arbitrary point shortly after fighting commences doesn't mean the Ukrainians are going to play ball and agree. (Although on the plus side for his perspective were Ukraine to continue fighting Putin will have forced the West to play 'bad guy' and intervene, effectively forcing the Ukrainians to accept the border advance as a 'fait accompli'. Which obviously creates a lot of ill will towards NATO in Ukraine and potentially drive a wedge between them.) Another 'win' for him then?

                      2) NATO and Putin reach some kind of face saving agreement he can show the Russian people confirming NATO will not be expanding any further East for X number of years i.e. that particular foreign policy 'can' gets kicked down the road for a decade or so. Still a win for him.

                      No guessing which option I think would be better. The problem is of course that time isn't on Russia's side. It's in long term economic and demographic decline and barring opening itself up to large scale investment by either the west or china there's no way out of the hole they're in. But the thing is that investment will only happen on terms acceptable to either the West or China (and choosing China effectively makes Russia a client state). And Putin's policies since coming to power? Well he's just digging the hole deeper, virtually nothing he has done since coming to power encourages western business interests at least to invest in Russia with an eye to a long term presence. To much crony capitalism.
                      Last edited by Monash; 15 Feb 22,, 13:50.
                      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                      • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                        Have we discussed what Putin has to gain from invading and overthrowing the Kiev government? Is it just strategic advantage? Because it sure won't be economic or political (at least internationally). Because it feels like he bet on fracturing NATO at a time when the US is weak and gain concessions, but instead has unified NATO and now has to invade to avoid pulling back and looking weak?
                        Perhaps all the stated goals are fig leaves. Maybe Putin figures - like Peter and Catherine - adding territory is how he gets "the Great" attached to his name.

                        What was Genghis Khan looking to do when he set out to make all under Tengri Mongol? Procure for himself eternal fame. He died campaigning rather than enjoying the fruits of his conquests.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                          I've asked a similar question myself. It seems to be coming down to one of two options;

                          A) Putin initiates a very limited' military offensive designed to gain a few more clicks of Ukrainian territory along pro Russian parts of the border. Then declares 'mission accomplished' holding in place while immediately proposing a cease fire. If that's accepted he then starts pulling back the bulk of Russian forces along the frontier proclaiming the creation an additional 'buffer zone ' for the protection of Russia/ethnic Russians or similar BS designed purely for domestic consumption. The risks - just because he says 'stop' at some arbitrary point shortly after fighting commences doesn't mean the Ukrainians are going to play ball and agree. (Although on the plus side for his perspective were Ukraine to continue fighting Putin will have forced the West to play 'bad guy' and intervene, effectively forcing the Ukrainians to accept the border advance as a 'fait accompli'. Which obviously creates a lot of ill will towards NATO in Ukraine and potentially drive a wedge between them.) Another 'win' for him then?
                          That's kind of what I think. The template for me here is Georgia 2008. They could've ran through Tbilisi if they wanted, they stopped at Gori, then retreated back to Abkhazia/South Ossetia.

                          It looks like they'll take away Black Sea coastline from Ukraine. They should stabilize their control of Crimea, for example, post-2014 the Ukrainians turned off a canal that sent water to Crimea and water supply has been an issue since for the Russians, therefore they should take control of the canal. They could go further inward from the present dividing line between Donbass and the rest of Ukraine as a buffer, but it's plains, who cares. I don't see what they gain taking Kiev. I can see going to the edge of Kiev and threatening Zelensky to surrender or they will go into Kiev.

                          Ukraine cannot do anything to the Russian Navy I've read, so if there is any invasion, just have the navy target Ukrainian military equipment for a day before you even begin to Russian ground forces in harm's way.

                          No guessing which option I think would be better. The problem is of course that time isn't on Russia's side. It's in long term economic and demographic decline...
                          The rest of Eastern Europe is even worse though because their youth are getting educated and then using their Schengen passport to leave for the rest of the EU. Russia will win that game just because of their sheer size in comparison, a 5% drop for them versus a 5% drop for the Baltic states is not equally damaging.
                          Last edited by rj1; 15 Feb 22,, 15:00.

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                          • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                            US closing their embassy. They must expect a full route of Ukrainian forces straight to Kiev and not some minor incursions.
                            And are moving their new embassy to Lviv, which is so far west it's about 100km from Poland.

                            Comment


                            • Russia says some forces pulling back amid Ukraine crisis

                              MOSCOW (AP) — Russia said Tuesday that some units participating in military exercises were returning to their bases, adding to glimmers of hope that the Kremlin may not be planning to invade Ukraine imminently. But it gave no details on where the troops were pulling back from, or how many.

                              That muddied efforts to determine the significance of the announcement, which buoyed world financial markets and the long-suffering ruble after weeks of escalation in Europe’s worst East-West standoff in decades. It came a day after Russia’s foreign minister indicated the country was ready to keep talking about the security grievances that led to the Ukraine crisis — a gesture that changed the tenor after weeks of tensions.

                              Yet hours before the Russian Defense Ministry statement about the troops, a U.S. defense official said Russian units were moving closer to the Ukrainian border – not away from it. And Western officials continued to warn that the Russian military could attack at any time, with some floating Wednesday as a possible invasion day. NATO's chief said the alliance had no proof yet of a Russian retreat.

                              The fears of an invasion grew from the fact that Russia has massed more than 130,000 troops near Ukraine. Russia denies it has any such plans, despite placing troops on Ukraine’s borders to the north, south and east and launching massive military drills nearby. U.S. and other NATO allies, meanwhile, have moved troops and military supplies toward Ukraine’s western flank, although not to confront Russian forces, and promised more financial aid to the ex-Soviet nation.

                              Moscow brandished Tuesday’s pullback announcement as proof that fears of war were fabricated by a hostile, U.S.-led West: “February 15, 2022, will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot fired,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova tweeted.

                              Yet Ukraine remains effectively surrounded on three sides by military forces from its much more powerful neighbor, and even if the immediate threat recedes, longer-term risk remains. Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and some 14,000 people have been killed in fighting between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russia separatists in the country's east.

                              The Russian Defense Ministry did not indicate where the withdrawing troops had been deployed or how many were leaving.

                              It released images of tanks and armored vehicles rolling onto a train, and a tank commander saluting his forces while a military band played. The ministry did not disclose where or when the images were taken, or where the military vehicles were headed, other than “to places of permanent deployment.”

                              Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the troops were returning “according to plan.” He said such drills always adhered to a schedule — regardless of “who thinks what and who gets hysterical about it, who is deploying real informational terrorism.”

                              Ukraine's leaders expressed skepticism.

                              “We won’t believe when we hear, we’ll believe when we see. When we see troops pulling out, we’ll believe in de-escalation," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

                              Speaking in Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “So far, we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground, not seen any signs of reduced Russian military presence on the borders of Ukraine.”


                              However, he added that there are “some grounds for cautious optimism” for diplomatic efforts, given the signals coming from Moscow in recent days.

                              Stoltenberg said Russia has in the past moved into areas with troops and equipment, then pulled back leaving military materiel in place for rapid use later. He said that NATO wants to see a “significant and enduring withdrawal of forces, troops, and not least the heavy equipment.”

                              European leaders have been scrambling to try to head off a new war on their continent, after several tense weeks that have left Europeans feeling caught between Russia and the U.S., and further pushed up household energy prices because of Europe's dependence on Russian gas.

                              German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, a day after sitting down with Ukraine's leader in Kyiv. In his opening remarks in the Kremlin, Scholz addressed the Ukraine tensions but also noted Germany's economic ties with Russia — which complicate Western efforts to agree on how to punish Russia in case of an invasion.

                              Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau of Poland, one of Russia's most strident European critics, met in Moscow with Lavrov, and they discussed ways to use the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe for more talks aimed at easing tensions around Ukraine.

                              The day before, Lavrov suggested more efforts at diplomacy in a made-for-TV meeting with Putin that seemed designed to send a message to the world about the Russian leader's position. The foreign minister argued that Moscow should hold more talks, despite the West’s refusal to consider Russia’s main demands.

                              Moscow wants guarantees that NATO will not allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members. It also wants the alliance to halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe.

                              The U.S. reacted coolly.

                              “The path for diplomacy remains available if Russia chooses to engage constructively,” White House principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. “However, we are clear-eyed about the prospects of that, given the steps Russia is taking on the ground in plain sight.”

                              British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss reiterated that the danger of an invasion still exists, telling Sky News that it “could be imminent.” Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt issued a similar warning, and Estonia's foreign intelligence agency said the Russian armed forces could launch an operation "from the second half of February.”

                              A U.S. defense official said small numbers of Russian ground units have been moving out of larger assembly areas for several days, taking up positions closer to the Ukrainian border at what would be departure points if Putin launched an invasion.

                              The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss information not publicly released.

                              Maxar Technologies, a commercial satellite imagery company that has been monitoring the Russian buildup, reported increased Russian military activity in Belarus, Crimea and western Russia, including the arrival of helicopters, ground-attack aircraft and fighter-bomber jets at forward locations. The photos taken over a 48-hour period also show ground forces leaving their garrisons and combat units moving into convoy formation.

                              Meanwhile, Russian lawmakers urged Putin to recognize rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine as independent states. The State Duma, Russia’s lower house, voted to submit an appeal to Putin to that effect.

                              Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the issue of recognizing the self-proclaimed republics is “very, very relevant to the public.” But it was unclear how Putin would respond or how this could influence Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

                              While the U.S. warns that Russia could invade Ukraine any day and Kyiv alerted residents to find their nearest bomb shelters, the drumbeat of war was hardly heard in Russia itself.

                              The Kremlin has cast the U.S. warnings of an imminent attack as “hysteria” and “absurdity,” and many Russians believe Washington is deliberately stoking panic and fomenting tensions to trigger a conflict for domestic reasons.

                              Few Russians expect a war.

                              In Russia's Belgorod region about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Ukraine's border, residents carry on with life as usual, even as more military personnel have been passing through village streets.

                              “Planes, helicopters just started flying, I guess, to patrol the border,” said Vladimir Konovalenko.

                              Villager Lyudmila Nechvolod says she's not worried.

                              “We are friends with Ukraine. And we are not sure that Ukraine wants war with us. ... We are really on the border, we really have relatives here and there, everyone has somebody there (on the Ukrainian side)," she said. "No one wants war.”

                              ___

                              What's the Russian word for maskirovka? Oh, right....

                              Supposedly if the balloon goes up, it'll be tomorrow.

                              A colleague of mine from the PRC says that neither Ukraine nor Russia wants war, but the United States definitely does. Oh and Ukraine is at fault for the current Russian deployment.

                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                                A colleague of mine from the PRC says that neither Ukraine nor Russia wants war, but the United States definitely does. Oh and Ukraine is at fault for the current Russian deployment.
                                Yeah, cause of course the US---looks at notes---REALLY wants to start World War 3.

                                Can everyone just chill so I can make it to retirement next January?

                                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                                Mark Twain

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