Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War
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This is a sticky topic.
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“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWhat perennial 'border war?' Do you know how Chechnya was solved? Putin put another crime boss, a Chechen crime boss, Kadyrov, in charge. Kadyrov lead the Chechen revolt. He fought and killed Russians and Putin put him in charge. Why? Because Kadyrov is tough enough to stamp out (read disappear) his rivals.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostConsidering how the UKR is runned, Poroshanko put the wanted Georgian criminal Saaskashvili in charge of Odessa and nobody blinked an eye. Putin is not above putting a tough criminal crime boss in charge in Kiev just to meet his own ends, even those who fought against him.
Again, the modern picture does not paint the options open to Putin but the ancient pictures sure do. Atila was bribed by the Pope not to sack Rome. Gibraltar is militarily indefensible but does Spain have the balls to take it? Even modern day examples show how punitive and effective terms of surrender are without the need to station troops or grab 100s of kms of buffer. Again, I point to Saddam. After Kuwait War, we did not station 100s of 1000s of troops in Kuwait nor Saudi Arabia to watch the still strong Iraqi Army. The threat alone was enough to keep Saddam contained.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostAnd I seriously question what sanctions? Name me one thing that would hurt the Russians that the Chinese can't replace?
The key question is how much gas Europe's existing gas ports can handle. Subsidized gas can be delivered by sea, but getting it where it is needed is another thing.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostEventually, yes that's what happened. But only after years of failure by conventional military strategies. And the casualties those military campaigns produced were deeply resented back home. The fact Russia couldn't successfully impose its will in Chechnya directly was the whole reason Putin eventually switched tactics . But it took years before Kadyrov was put in charge. Lesson learned.
Originally posted by Monash View PostI have no doubt Putin would rush to put a 'hard man' in charge in Kiev have learned his lesson previously. But putting him there and keeping him there without lots of Russian military support on a permanent basis? The population of Chechnya is less than 1.5 million. The population of Odessa region is less than 2.4 million. The population of Ukraine is approximately 40 million people. The bulk of whom give every indication of being fiercely opposed to Russian rule, even if it is by proxy. A population of that size will not be easily pacified except by the more or permanent use of extreme force, very expensive force. And that's the potential long term mess Putin faces if he tries.
Originally posted by Monash View PostI can name two things. gas sales to Europe and access in general to European capitals for Russian Citizens. It would take years for the infrastructure to be put in place for China to totally replace Europe as a customer.
Originally posted by Monash View PostThe key question is how much gas Europe's existing gas ports can handle. Subsidized gas can be delivered by sea, but getting it where it is needed is another thing.Chimo
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No, Putin's problem is watching 30% of Russia's GDP go down the toilet until he such time as he can start replacing lost European sales with Chinese ones. Doable but not for years. The rest? He still has 40 million people to control, doesn't much matter how he slices up the pie. That number won't change, nor does the cost of trying. In both rubles and blood. Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind, albeit in fairness that last is an extreme example given it wasn't a real nation to begin with.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostNo, Putin's problem is watching 30% of Russia's GDP go down the toilet until he such time as he can start replacing lost European sales with Chinese ones.
Originally posted by Monash View PostHe still has 40 million people to control, doesn't much matter how he slices up the pie. That number won't change, nor does the cost of trying. In both rubles and blood. Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind, albeit in fairness that last is an extreme example given it wasn't a real nation to begin with.
You forget the Chechen example. It wasn't the Russians who suppressed the Chechens. It was a Chechen who terrorized Chechnya into submission being paid by Putin. Poroshenko has already shown what kind of man he is when he put Saaskashvilli in. He was the one doing the buying back then. It also shows that he himself can be bought.
I've been saying from day 1 that this is a Civil War. No doubt Russia pushed it and forment it but there is zero insurgency for a reason.
Chimo
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Assuming the figures you quoted are right (and I'm sure they are BTW) that's 8 million Russians vs 32 million Ukis. And most of the ethnic Russians are concentrated along the eastern border not anywhere near the center of the country. On top of that your assuming all 8 million Russians want to follow Putin's lead and from anecdotal reports I've seen that's simply not the case, many, perhaps the majority don't want a forced merger with Russia. Not at the expense of potential benefits to be had from opening up and connecting with the EU. Would you in their shoes?If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Who said anything about a merger? Chechnya is a defacto independent country with massive bribes from Moscow. DNR and LNR are not absorbed into Russia and still fly their own flags. I'm not assuming 8 million Ukrainians want to follow Putin. I'm stating that 8 million Russian speaking Ukrainians don't want to live under Kiev's thumb. With the likes of Poroshenko and now Zelensky, Kiev is proving their views extremely correct.
This part is my fault in not explaining this well enough. A Civil War is the worst kind of war you can get. The thing about brother-against-brother and families divided has become just a saying with zero narrative impact on the reader. It has become too abstract. However, UNPROFOR has seen grandmothers throwing out their grand-daughters just because the in-laws are from a different group. Can you understand the level of self convincing you have to do to get to that point where you want to throw out your own grand-daughter just because the son-in-law or daughter-in-law is from another group? Riches from the West cannot compare to the justifications you need to do in order throw out your own grand-daugher ... and killing your own brother.
There will be a high price in blood alrirght but Russia will not be the one doing most of the bleeding. It will be Ukrainian blood and it will be done in 1s and 2s, maybe upto a few hundred. Anything more than that would be smashed by Russian firepower.
Further more, the only chance the Ukrainian speakers have against the Russians is to outbleed them and they can't. Not only does actual Russia outman the entire UKR but Kadyrov would turn even the AZOV Bn into scared little girls and he already offered an entire Chechen division to Putin.
Oh, Ukrainian popuation is 44 million (8 million Russian speakers and 36 million Ukrainian speakers).Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 16 Feb 22,, 08:38.Chimo
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And just to be clear, Kiev is a target for a very good military reason. It's on the Dnieper. A natural barrier against any further advance. Except for Odessa, I cannot see the Russians going beyond the Dnieper. They will have to rebuild their supplies across the Dnieper before they can move on. Not that they couldn't but after Kiev, what's the point?
Chimo
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWho said anything about a merger? Chechnya is a defacto independent country with massive bribes from Moscow. DNR and LNR are not absorbed into Russia and still fly their own flags. I'm not assuming 8 million Ukrainians want to follow Putin. I'm stating that 8 million Russian speaking Ukrainians don't want to live under Kiev's thumb. With the likes of Poroshenko and now Zelensky, Kiev is proving their views extremely correct.
For the rest I'm well aware of the special horrors civil war entails. My agency had to go boots on the ground in several failed states. And as far as 'out-breeding' goes both ethic Russians and Ukranians are in an identicle boat. Russia's population is also in what appears to be terminal decline. The Ukrainian birth rate is just over 9 per 1000 people. Russia's is about 9.8 . That's hardly a seismic advantage.
If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostAnd just to be clear, Kiev is a target for a very good military reason. It's on the Dnieper. A natural barrier against any further advance. Except for Odessa, I cannot see the Russians going beyond the Dnieper. They will have to rebuild their supplies across the Dnieper before they can move on. Not that they couldn't but after Kiev, what's the point?If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostNATO and the EU & their sovereign member nation states simply can't afford to be seen idly sitting by while a hostile power makes large scale land grabs from a friendly neighbor with impunity. Not only would it set a disastrous example for the future it would undermine each and every members claim to defending the sovereignty of their own territory. A few square kilometers of territory along the border they may be able to stomach and sell to Ukraine in return for a lasting peace. Something like 10-20% of the country. Never in a million years.
The post-World War II era of geopolitics of borders are sacrosanct/we don't do wars for territory is dead. The fact no one in this crisis has even mentioned the United Nations to pay their Charter simple lip service is telling. I'm just waiting for China and other states (the Turkeys, Pakistans, Indonesias, etc. of the world) to get in on the game the Russians are doing. We already had this low-level territory conflict in 2020 in Artsakh done by Azerbaijan that most of the polite world ignored because they don't officially recognize Artsakh, they recognize that land as Azerbaijani, meaning they can't say anything about what the Azerbaijanis did other than "we wish for peace and continued collaboration between the two sides".Last edited by rj1; 16 Feb 22,, 13:59.
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About the clearest assessment of Russia's position that i've heard to date. Fyodor Lukyanov is a name i will remember.
This interview came out two weeks ago.
The Russians are not tactically deployed. This is just a demonstration. Why ?
Nobody listens to Russia so this is Putin's way of getting the world's attention.
This guy isn't even a military commentator and he's called it already. He comes to this conclusion from politics.
What i find interesting is his take on how Putin views Biden
Putin intuitively senses an opportunity given the state of affairs in the world
16:39 Why this intensification of Russian policy came about just now i think many elements came together.
The west is not in the best shape now neither United States nor European union for different reasons.
Two concrete events recently played a role
First of all, Afghanistan. I don't mean that American fiasco so to say encouraged Putin. I mean something else, I mean that president Biden in case of Afghanistan demonstrated a very interesting trait.
He is ready to disregard anything if he believes that this step should be done. So he made this withdrawal. Delivered enormous harm to American reputation actually moral and political but Biden believed firmly that it was absolutely necessary. He did it and he demonstrated very clear commitment.
Second event, AUKUS. This creation of anglo-saxon grouping in the pacific without even informing other allies I think that demonstrated that if the American administration & Biden personally believe that they need to do something in American interest they don't think about their allies, they don't think about NATO they do what they believe is correct.
So these two combined gives Putin and the Russian leadership the impression that in real terms, not in rhetoric but in real terms, NATO is not that important anymore and eastern Europe and Russia certainly are less important for Biden than east Asia and China.
And this is the window for opportunity because Biden probably is interested not to eliminate this problem, not to get rid of Ukraine completely of course but to decrease the importance of this issue which is in Russian interest actually.
This is an interesting calculation.
After the two meetings he had with Biden, Putin gets an intuition of what Biden stands for.
Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Feb 22,, 14:45.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostCertainly European demographics are bleak. But the thing is the EU States have to put up barriers to keep would be immigrants out. Russia' has no such 'problem'.
The future of the Baltic states demographically-speaking is a fascinating topic. I'm not sure what the precedent is in world history. Maybe out of necessity due to demographic decline 40 years down the road we see the creation of the Federal State of Baltica.Last edited by rj1; 16 Feb 22,, 15:12.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostI think your assuming the worst possible case scenario. Even if Russia were to do as you say they would still be mired in conflict and for months. Its once thing to draw nice, neat little lines on a map and say 'this part of Ukraine is not an independent State or part of Russia or whatever. It's an entirely different thing to make those States a reality in the aftermath of an invasion and stop them from falling over again once you do.
Chimo
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