Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War
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“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostThey're the same thing. Train as you fight. Fight as you train. The whole point about these exercises is to learn whether or not you can do it.
Chinese weren't tactically deployed against India. Some commentators mentioned this tactically bit which i only caught many months later.
I guess it takes a bit more intel to tell. By tactically deployed i mean in positions where they have an attack advantage and not just all over the place.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostDoesn't matter. Whether NATO gives concession to Putin or not, I will guarrantee you one thing. Kiev is going to bend over backwards not to test Putin.
I pushed this on Minnie back in 2014. Why let the US & Russia fight to the last Ukranian. For what ?
What is Putin doing here ? i think he wants a settlement. He started the ball rolling in 2014.
Things have not moved much from there so he's pushing some more. He's got people's attention.
He's stepping down in 2024. This is his last chance.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostMilitarily speaking also, I too would think invasion is immeniant. Why go through all this if you have no intention to invade. Putin got other easier options to exact concessions. He could have easily armed 80,000 DNR and LNR troops to make life miserable for Kiev and would not have such political baggage,
Putin does not have to invade because he already did so in 2014. He just has to posture and every one freaks out as if he will. Pavlovian.
So far the ruse is working.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostPutin got what he wanted. No way in hell does Kiev now got the balls to join NATO, let alone jump through the reform hoops necessary to join NATO. If they're this chickenshit to stand up to Putin, then they ain't got the balls to openly defy him to join NATO.
What does he have to do this time to prevent another repeat in the future ?
Those Ukranians are plucky
If Ukraine manage to convince him they will not join NATO he goes to his grave in peace.
It's become an existential thing for him.
Mao threw two million troops into Korea for the same reason when NATO was just one year old.Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 01:10.
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Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Postaka The Ukranians coming to their senses
What to you meets this definition? What do they need to do to come to their senses?“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Postaka The Ukranians coming to their senses
What to you meets this definition? What do they need to do to come to their senses?
As for the expression that's how my commentators put it.
That is how the crisis winds down.
Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
Politely allow Putin to devour all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, I'm guessing.Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 00:01.
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Originally posted by Mithridates View PostThis is gonna sound really out of left field, but if Putin decided to push all the way to the French coast, could he?
Originally posted by Mithridates View PostIt makes sense to threaten a nuclear attack to deter a conventional one.
It's possible to have conventional and sub under a nuke umbrella but there are limits to how far it can go.
Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 00:47.
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Originally posted by rj1 View Post
But it seems we think an attack is more likely than the Ukrainians do.
Reached the same conclusion as you did but OOE said Ukraine wants NATO to fight this one for them.
Ain't happening.
Then he said they will try their best not to test Russia. Meaning they are cowering.
When Zelensky tells Biden he does not think an attack is imminent i'd like to think Zelensky knows what he is saying.
In fact i was even willing to give a Ukranian batallion commander the benefit of the doubt.
Both that commander & Zelensky are saying the same thing.Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 01:02.
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Oh for Pete sakes, the Russians ain't the Chinese and the DNR/LNR ain't the Sino-Indo Border. The Chinese didn't attack because they could not win. The Russians outman, outgun, out-position, and will out-maneuver the Ukrainians. Until January, NATO troops were within LOS of the DNR/LNR shooting war. They were the trip wire to prevent DNR and LNR troops from attacking into the Ukrainian rear. This allowed the Ukrainians not to build a defence-in-depth, the counter to maneuver war, ie using NATO troops as a deterence than to dig trenches.
NATO has not completely left the UKR. They are in the Western UKR outside the immediate combat area. It is certain that these NATO troops are in target areas as anything to do with the Ukrainian military is a target area.
And right now, Putin is ignoring Kiev. He is making demands of NATO, not of Kiev. He already got Kiev where he wants her. He's making moves against NATO, hoping to get a little crack in the Alliance and he is using Kiev to do it. If he attacks, he most certainly would take Kiev, and thus reuniting the Rus (not Russian) peoples. If he doesn't attack, the Russian speakers will most certainly gain a bigger influence. The question is which gains him more with the least cost.
I have little faith that Ukrainian partisans would make life miserable for the Russians. There are too many Russian speaking Ukrainians who would gladly match bloodlust with the Ukrainian speakers.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 06 Feb 22,, 08:24.Chimo
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Originally posted by Parihaka View PostA land corridor.
Let's get straight into the meat of it
15:36
Q. Let me ask you a point-blank question sir, do you think these guys will actually invade ?
A. A point-blank answer, No.
They will not. I do not think Russia will invade and i'm going to tell you the military options why i feel this way.
Let me clarify when I say invade I don't mean those classical pincer invasions of 1939. No, you won't have those two tank groups moving from eastern Ukraine and Belarus that converge on Kiev. No, that will not happen.
Firstly, it'll be too expensive and that invasion will unify NATO. Instead what Putin is going to do is, he could, should he want to even launch a military incursion. A likely scenario is to establish a land bridge up to the Crimea, which they've already annexed. It's connected now by the sea of Azov. They could have a small incursion in the Donbass region which reaches up to there
The other thing is they can keep on encouraging Russian separatists in Donetsk, in Luhansk along with the Spetznaz participating perhaps in civil clothes or whatever and then declare independent states like they did with Abkhazia, South Ossetia or like in Georgia, remember in 2008.
That means all of the Crimea is de facto part of Russia. It is their way of punishing Ukraine.
There are other actions. You can have pinprick actions along the border, classic soviet tactics of salami slicing.
Which slice of that salami is going to be the provocation ? they move into a village here, a district there. Who knows whether they are Russian troops or separatists.
Which of the salami slices is the west going to react to ?
The little green men ?
A: yeah, classic soviet tactics. Let's not forget Putin is classic Soviet man. This is what they would do. Just raise the bar.
Now there is one more option. They can go in for regime change. The present regime is hard against the Russians but the opposing party the nashi(?) party is pro-Russian. i would say it is more inclined towards Russia.
So they create so much uncertainty, they create so much turmoil within Ukraine that you have a political changeover. And then you have a political party which is now more favorably inclined to Russian demands.
With your pinprick slicing, with your political aim, with your economical blackmail and things like this you have a classic hybrid war situation in which you've attained your aims without actually fighting.
I'm sure the Chinese are watching, Sir
You can bet they're watching with both eyes wide open.Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 18:05.
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Originally posted by Chunder View PostI've been thinking a bit about this as it really isn't just about Russia for the U.S. There is an overarching security structure that probably forces the West's hand to act. The Baltics & NATO security being one, but it's not the worlds 11th largest economy you're overly concerned about, it's the world's No. 2 economy doing the same.
Russia probably needs to be made an example out of for a prolonged period of time because much nastier things lie in wait otherwise. Better the world's 11th be this example than no 1 & 2 going head to head.
I'm not sure Europe has reached the maturity to realise that the U.S. sees itself as no.1 and if it feels the above is in the equation then the U.S will place its POST Russia/Ukraine scenario firmly to the forefront?
Biden should be calling Macron, reminiding him of Mers El Kebir & Eisenhower/Suez.
I fear where the trip wire is not where we think it is. I fear that perhaps Putin actually thinks he's smart after 2014, but he's already enacted a chain of events, in nobodies interest. That we talk as if conflict in Ukraine is all we're facing.
Anyway, just musings - I don't mean pulling gun triggers I mean the complete and utter financial collapse of Russia. By necessary sacrifice. Damn I hate my thought.
The trouble with the present scenario is regardless of the outcome both West & Russia are weakened to China's advantage.
Nato offers Russia a concession then China angles for one with Taiwan because now the west looks weak.
West sanctions Russia pushing it further into the Chinese camp and creating two power blocks which will be difficult to stay out of.
We could do with Russia neutral or on our side with China.
Otherwise things get much more complicated for every one.
Russia is the aggrieved party here not the adversary.
China is the adversary and every one needs to be on the same page about that.Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Feb 22,, 18:51.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
If you want to deal with #2 then its better to handle #2 and not via proxy. This sends a message to all down the line.
The trouble with the present scenario is regardless of the outcome both West & Russia are weakened to China's advantage.
Nato offers Russia a concession then China angles for one with Taiwan because now the west looks weak.
West sanctions Russia pushing it further into the Chinese camp and creating two power blocks which will be difficult to stay out of.
We could do with Russia neutral or on our side with China.
Otherwise things get much more complicated for every one.
Russia is the aggrieved party here not the adversary.
China is the adversary and every one needs to be on the same page about that.
On one hand, you're arguing anything the West concedes here to Russia will be closely watched by China, which I agree with.
On the other hand in this post, you're saying we should join up with the Russians here to have them on our side for future relations with China. Well how without conceding and thereby looking weak? India can definitely be cozy with the Russians if they want as part of their Chinese deterrence strategy. It's not really an option for NATO states at this point while sticking up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.Last edited by rj1; 07 Feb 22,, 17:21.
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Originally posted by rj1 View Post
Your rhetoric is not matching.
On one hand, you're arguing anything the West concedes here to Russia will be closely watched by China, which I agree with.
On the other hand in this post, you're saying we should join up with the Russians here to have them on our side for future relations with China. Well how without conceding and thereby looking weak? India can definitely be cozy with the Russians if they want as part of their Chinese deterrence strategy. It's not really an option for NATO states at this point while sticking up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
One other point to consider....you see all these nations over the past 25+ years who have clamored to join NATO...how many have clamored to join into the Russian camp?“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
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