new Cold War?

[Officer of Engineers]

All the money? That's an absolute I think is unlikely, not to mention risky. Subsidies are famous in that region -- Discounted Ukrainian gas, Sochi financing. No, there will be some combination, otherwise Putin will have to answer to his constituencies, or they to him.

Again, are you shitting me? Just transferring the records from Kyev is going to be hassle and how about getting acceptable proofs of service?

Hell, even if it was any of the European countries, we would have bureaucratic nightmares. Look how long the East Germans needed to get equivelant treatment from West Germany and that is with a bureaucracy that wanted to work things out.

Most Crimeans will die of old age before their paperwork will get sorted out.

[Goatboy]

Again, are you shitting me? Just transferring the records from Kyev is going to be hassle and how about getting acceptable proofs of service?

Putin will make it a priority. He spent 50 billion right next door in Sochi without blinking an eye. A huge pain, but not insurmountable other things being equal. This article says 10 billion a year for the next 5 years for everything, pensions, infrastructure. http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/15/news...omy/index.html

Hell, even if it was any of the European countries, we would have bureaucratic nightmares. Look how long the East Germans needed to get equivelant treatment from West Germany and that is with a bureaucracy that wanted to work things out.

Are you suggesting that West Germany absorbing East Germany and its 16 million citizens was an easier task than Russia's absorption of Crimea will be?

Most Crimeans will die of old age before their paperwork will get sorted out.

Exaggeration?

[Officer of Engineers]

For Pete sakes, the prize at Sochi was Russian TV ratings. The prize at Crimea is Svestapol. Both became non-items once Putin achieved what he wanted. Putin ain't a bureaucrat and he couldn't care less that at least 10% of Sochi went into unknown pockets. He will not care less about pensioners lost in the paperwork. If he did, he would not have torn the Crimea out.

[Goatboy]

For Pete sakes, the prize at Sochi was Russian TV ratings. The prize at Crimea is Svestapol. Both became non-items once Putin achieved what he wanted. Putin ain't a bureaucrat and he couldn't care less that at least 10% of Sochi went into unknown pockets. He will not care less about pensioners lost in the paperwork. If he did, he would not have torn the Crimea out.

You call it TV ratings, I call it international prestige, a showcasing to the world Russia's coming of age -- and Sochi wasn't intended to be a "non-issue" when the games were over. Neither was Beijing, which endlessly milks the success of the 2008 Olympic games, and the Olympic park, for prestige. I know, I was there in January, and the whole Olympic park area for miles around is still alive with national fervor.

If all Putin cared about was Sevastopol, then why not annex just that -- make it Russia's Guantanamo?

Putin will pay as little as he needs to maintain stability sure, but it's not a "screw all pensions" or "pay em all in full" situation. Maybe he'll raise them to Dagestani levels, the lowest in the Russian Federation (but still higher than Crimea).

[Officer of Engineers]

Beijing is a Capital City. Sochi is in the middle of nowhere. Most of that $50bil was roads and gas stations and electricity to the place.. Not many people lived there in the first place, otherwise, they wouldn't need to spend $50bil.

And you're missing the friggin point, Putin got what he wants. He's not going to spend anymore effort on it. The Bureaucrats now take over and he couldn't care less what happens.

[Goatboy]

Exactly. Infrastructure built to maintain and develop Sochi for the future. It was to be Putin's permanent Potemkin resort to attract rich Europeans, Turks, Iranians (and Russians, and Putin's cronies). To create Russia's only cosmopolitan, 1st class, "winter wonderland", and also to help cement Russia's control over a region practically a stone's throw from Abkhazia (which Putin occupied a portion of for "security" during the Sochi games). So, yes, it's a whole lot more than 2 weeks worth of TV ratings. But that was Putin's ideal. And Sochi won't deliver, it'll rust away in my opinion.


Putin's head is opaque, in a way Merkel's and Hollande's (and Obama's) isn't. He's full of surprises. If you were forced to wager your life savings on something, I'm guessing you wouldn't choose that bet to be whether or not Putin will invade Eastern Ukraine. Although, I do think the odds are against it.


honestly, I don't spend much time thinking about Sochi, or pensions. I'm more concerned with macro geo-strategic implications of Putin's latest assault...

[Parihaka]

The USSR "grew a pair" and seized almost every capital east of Copenhagen.
Current Russia does not compare to that. They took an ethnically Russian part of another nation that, according to the IMF, ranks at about Uganda-level importance.
Who cares?
I want Russians out of the Kuril Islands and I want Russian weapons out of Syria. I don't want Russian weapons or money flowing into Iran. I don't want Russia rolling into the Baltic States. If a bunch of nut-jobs go crazy in Central Asia, I want their help there.

Crimea is low on the list of priorities.

Where I come from, grow a pair means grow up. What we've seen from Russia is adolescent whining about how nobody likes them, all the while stealing and looting anything they think they can get their hands on. Damn straight they're going to be surrounded by NATO, let's call it neighbourhood watch cause the burglars have moved in next door.

[Goatboy]

I remember in the 90s, during Yeltsin's reign, when Russia joining NATO seems a worthy, if eventual goal for many. A bunch of democracies all under one roof. Damn ideologues...

[Officer of Engineers]

Exactly. Infrastructure built to maintain and develop Sochi for the future. It was to be Putin's permanent Potemkin resort to attract rich Europeans, Turks, Iranians (and Russians, and Putin's cronies). To create Russia's only cosmopolitan, 1st class, "winter wonderland", and also to help cement Russia's control over a region practically a stone's throw from Abkhazia (which Putin occupied a portion of for "security" during the Sochi games). So, yes, it's a whole lot more than 2 weeks worth of TV ratings. But that was Putin's ideal. And Sochi won't deliver, it'll rust away in my opinion.

It's pure TV ratings. Putin has not put much afterthought in attracting tourists and after this fiasco, they ain't coming.

Putin's head is opaque, in a way Merkel's and Hollande's (and Obama's) isn't. He's full of surprises. If you were forced to wager your life savings on something, I'm guessing you wouldn't choose that bet to be whether or not Putin will invade Eastern Ukraine. Although, I do think the odds are against it.

He's unpredictable in initating actions but he's very predictable in following through - none. Chechnya is still a drug running brothel, only now, he's getting a cut. South Ossetia has not improved economically significantly.

And I'm betting he will not invade East Ukraine. They're now ready and expecting.

honestly, I don't spend much time thinking about Sochi, or pensions.

You should. It states a lot about his persistence. Have you noticed that no one has even written the legislation to inherit those Crimean pensions yet?

I'm more concerned with macro geo-strategic implications of Putin's latest assault...

Translation: Our boys in uniform are finally getting a pay raise.

[Goatboy]

It's pure TV ratings. Putin has not put much afterthought in attracting tourists and after this fiasco, they ain't coming.

Spending 50 billion right next to Abkhazia is TV ratings only? You don't think Putin is thinking about "extending" Sochi's hinterland to that area? Sochi is already the "longest" city in Russia geographically speaking. What's a few handfuls of miles extended to (internationally recognized as Georgian) sparsely populated, former Soviet shoreline territory?

He's unpredictable in initating actions but he's very predictable in following through - none. Chechnya is still a drug running brothel, only now, he's getting a cut. South Ossetia has not improved economically significantly.

I agree. He's predictable in formenting chaos when it's advantageous in maintaining Russian influence. Like Transneistria. That promise of his to withdraw troops, broken a decade+ ago. Should have known that once he sent the troops in he'd remain. No more Kaliningrads can be tolerated IMO, should Putin decide to annex that region as well.

You should. It states a lot about his persistence. Have you noticed that no one has even written the legislation to inherit those Crimean pensions yet?

No haven't noticed yet. I'm not sure the Crimeans have noticed yet either, or if they have, they're not as concerned as they will be if Putin hasn't signed anything in a year. I guess we'll have to see.

[Officer of Engineers]

Spending 50 billion right next to Abkhazia is TV ratings only? You don't think Putin is thinking about "extending" Sochi's hinterland to that area? Sochi is already the "longest" city in Russia geographically speaking. What's a few handfuls of miles extended to (internationally recognized as Georgian) sparsely populated, former Soviet shoreline territory?

Are you shitting me? Really, are you shitting me? Putin spent $50bil to buy an excuse to invade Abkhazia. Did you just missed what happen to the Crimea? Putin grabbed an excuse out of thin air. And it stuck.

[Goatboy]

Are you shitting me? Really, are you shitting me? Putin spent $50bil to buy an excuse to invade Abkhazia. Did you just missed what happen to the Crimea? Putin grabbed an excuse out of thin air. And it stuck.

No, I'm not shitting you, I haven't been for my last 5 comments.

Your quote:
"It's pure TV ratings."

No it's not pure TV ratings. Putin's not that simplistic. He's going to milk every situation for everything it's worth. I'm merely commenting on your absolute declaration that Putin is only interested in ONE thing with Sochi Olympics: TV ratings. What I was trying, gently, to suggest, is that Putin has other motives as well. Never did I suggest that he hosted his Sochi games only as an excuse to invade Abkhazia, merely that he's counting his ducks, and one duck is most certainly an opportunity for greater control over former Soviet space, especially when that space is a bunch of former Soviet, warm water, Black Sea shoreline, and we all know Putin has a hard-on for Black Sea beaches. A greater Russian "presence" in the Black Sea has got to be part of Putin's strategic calculations, and developing Sochi for the Olympics helps (in his mind) accomplish that task, more than developing Irkutsk or Novosibirsk to stage the Olympics.

If his Crimean invasion didn't go according to plan, or didn't happen at all, at least he expanded Russia's jurisdiction over warm water coastline, which he so desperately craves -- this is a reasonable calculation the shrewd Putin might have made a couple years ago, before Maiden was a glimmer in Tymoshenko's eye.

I don't understand how this is controversial frankly...

[Doktor]

Too bad it's Onion's piece and noone will take it seriously...

A letter from Putin

Thanks For Being So Cool About Everything

As you know, the last few weeks have been kind of crazy around here. Last month, protests in Ukraine ousted the country’s Kremlin-allied president and ignited a wave of Ukrainian nationalism that threatened to destabilize Russia’s economic and military interests in the region. Of course, I couldn’t simply stand by and let that happen, so I intervened and ordered a forceful takeover of the strategically important peninsula of Crimea—a territory with historical ties to Russia that our nation had long desired. It’s certainly no easy task to forcefully annex an entire province against another country’s will, so I just wanted to thank you—the government of the United States, the nations of western Europe, and really the entire world population as a whole—for being super cool about all of this.

Seriously, you guys have been amazing. All of you. I really appreciate it.

To be honest, I was really dreading a whole big fight over this thing. When you first condemned the seizure of Crimea as patently illegal and in breach of the Ukrainian constitution—which it absolutely was, by the way—I feared for the worst. But then everybody stopped short of doing anything to actually prevent what was essentially a state-sponsored landgrab, and I just thought, “Wow, these guys are a pretty laid-back and easygoing bunch!” It really was a huge load off when you let everything slide like that.

Believe me, I know it must have been hard to stand idly by and do nothing as a foreign military invaded one of your allies, or just sit back and watch while we set up a complete farce of a referendum—a referendum supervised by heavily armed members of the Russian military, mind you—and used it as grounds for backdoor annexation. It also couldn’t have been easy to keep your cool when we sent commandos to raid the Ukrainian naval headquarters in Crimea. But you didn’t really make much of a fuss over any of it, and I couldn’t be more grateful for that. It made my job way, way easier.

I totally owe you one, no question about that.

Now, of course I get that you in the international community had to issue some sort of response. After all, you had to at least look like you were trying to fight for the people of Ukraine as we rolled armed vehicles into their country, made it clear that any dissent would be punished, and essentially rendered an entire people totally and utterly powerless in the face of a bigger, stronger country’s national interests. I totally get that. But I’m just relieved that you decided on a response as harmless as humanly possible, with no real and tangible repercussions on myself or my government. You really have no idea how much stress that lifted off my shoulders. It was a real lifesaver.

I also understand that moving forward, you’ll feel pressure to call a lot of high-profile NATO meetings, make statements to the UN, suspend this summer’s G8 summit, that sort of thing. I also get that all that kind of stuff is just a formal procedure you have to follow, because really, at this point you’ve laid your cards on the table. So I just want to thank you ahead of time—honestly, from the bottom of my heart—for ensuring that I can just concentrate on doing whatever I want in any formerly Soviet region that is of geopolitical, military, or economic value to Russia without having to worry one iota about suffering any consequences. Thanks for making that 100-percent clear to me.

There is one thing I want to say though, and I feel a little silly admitting this, but there was actually a moment earlier when I did feel a little dread. For one unnerving second there, I thought you imposed sanctions on Russia’s broad national economy, but then I saw the sanctions were just directed at a few of my advisers and some bank I don’t care about. Boy, talk about a major relief!

Really, this whole thing has gone so smoothly that my only real regret is that I just wish I had known earlier that you guys were this mellow about hostile military takeovers. It makes me wonder what took me so long to get around to this.

But you know, I really shouldn’t have been surprised, given how cool you were with my longstanding record of handling opposition political groups or independent-minded journalists, all those gay rights protests that cropped up last year, or even that whole ordeal in 2008 when we tried to take over separatist regions of Georgia by force. Just knowing I’m free to do things my own way—that I can fully ignore any domestic or international laws and any basic principles of human rights—just takes away a ton of the stress involved in making these big decisions.

And, by the way, if you ever need me to play along and act like these little Crimea sanctions and rhetorical warnings are in the least bit threatening, or feign anger by instituting entry bans on U.S. lawmakers and officials, or issue a few sternly worded responses to the international community’s condemnations, I’m completely down with that. I get the back-and-forth charade we’re playing here—the one that says you’re actually considering some real action against me. Seriously, going along with that kind of ruse is the least I can do, given all you’ve done for me.

I just hope you’ll all continue being so nice and accommodating moving forward—especially with what I’ve got planned for the rest of Ukraine over the next few months.

Thanks For Being So Cool About Everything | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[Parihaka]

Europe scrambles to break gas dependence on Russia, offers Ukraine military tie

European leaders have rushed through plans aimed at breaking the Kremlin’s grip on gas and energy supplies, marking a fresh escalation in the emerging Cold War between Russia and the West.
The move came as the EU slapped sanctions on 12 leading Russians in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, and vowed “additional and far-reaching” action if he intervenes in eastern Ukraine or further destabilises the region. The European Commission has been told to cock the gun by preparing “targeted measures” immediately.
The South Stream pipeline intended to link the EU to Russia through the Black Sea by 2018 is now “dead”, according to sources in Brussels, hitting contractors close to Mr Putin. EU staff are to come up with plans to shield Europe from energy blackmail by Russia within 90 days, finding ways to prevent frontline states being picked off one by one. Ukraine’s premier, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said in Brussels that the West must stop Russia deploying energy as a “new nuclear weapon".
Gas group Novatek, owned by Putin-ally Gennady Timchenko, has dropped 16pc since he was named. He has had to sell his 43pc stake in Gunvor to his partner in order to save the firm, the world’s fourth largest oil trader.
Visa and Mastercard halted transactions for Rossiya bank. Mr Putin said defiantly that he would make sure his salary was transferred to a new account at Rossiya “first thing Monday morning”.
They also cut off SMP bank, co-owned by Mr Putin’s judo partner Arkady Rotenberg, though the bank itself was not named – evidence that US firms will not take any risks with US regulators.
Aluminium group Rusal is in talks with lenders to delay rolling over some of its $10bn debt, a sign that Russian companies with $650bn of debt may struggle to refinance loans. An estimated $155bn must be rolled over this year.
“Until yesterday people thought there would two months of shouting and then we get back to business, but nobody is quite sure anymore,” said one Moscow banker. “What’s worrying the markets is that there will be more US sanctions. Russian companies are extremely vulnerable. The real fragility is whether they can roll over their debts.”
Tim Ash, from Standard Bank, said Washington is determined to make Mr Putin pay for changing Europe’s borders by force, and will ratchet up “stealth sanctions” by regulatory muscle. “Foreign companies will have to be very careful who their partners in Russia are,” he said.
American agencies will probe deeper into the origin of funds, using money-laundering codes to tighten the noose. Mr Ash said the US will step up sanctions even if there is no direct Russian incursion into mainland Ukraine. Any attempt to destabilise the Ukrainian government will be punished. “The Kremlin has misread the Americans badly,” he said.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel – emerging as Europe’s dominant figure in the crisis – said there had been an “unbelievable loss of trust in Russia” since the seizure of Crimea. She called for measures to ensure that gas flows can be reversed to supply the most exposed states in eastern Europe.
Professor Alan Riley, from City University, called the comments a “solidarity statement”, pledging that Germany will funnel some of its own gas from the Nord Stream pipeline to Poland, Slovakia and others if need be. “Putin would not dare cut off Germany itself,” he said.
Mr Riley said the EU had spent €1.3bn building inter-connector links across Europe since 2009. All new pipelines have reversible flows. “The EU could probably withstand a cut-off in Russian gas. Putin is far less dangerous today than he was in 2009,” he said.
The pan-EU group Gas Infrastructure Europe said Europe is currently well-stocked with 37bn cubic metres of gas – 47pc of storage capacity – as a result of a mild winter. “Most of the European transmission systems currently can withstand a disruption of Russian gas through Ukraine. The pipeline network is available for diverting gas flows in case of supply problems from Russia, from storage and LNG (liquefied natural gas),” said the group.
Eight EU states have LNG hubs, the largest in Britain and Spain. Poland’s new facility will come on stream this year. Deutsche Bank said gas reliance on Russia is 93pc in Slovakia, 83pc in Poland, 81pc in Hungary, 66pc in the Czech Republic and 61pc in Austria.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard8:14PM GMT 21 Mar 2014 1948 Comments
European leaders have rushed through plans aimed at breaking the Kremlin’s grip on gas and energy supplies, marking a fresh escalation in the emerging Cold War between Russia and the West.
The move came as the EU slapped sanctions on 12 leading Russians in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, and vowed “additional and far-reaching” action if he intervenes in eastern Ukraine or further destabilises the region. The European Commission has been told to cock the gun by preparing “targeted measures” immediately.
The South Stream pipeline intended to link the EU to Russia through the Black Sea by 2018 is now “dead”, according to sources in Brussels, hitting contractors close to Mr Putin. EU staff are to come up with plans to shield Europe from energy blackmail by Russia within 90 days, finding ways to prevent frontline states being picked off one by one. Ukraine’s premier, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said in Brussels that the West must stop Russia deploying energy as a “new nuclear weapon".

The radical shift in EU energy policy comes as Russia feels the chill of US sanctions imposed on Thursday. The share prices of companies linked to oligarchs on the US blacklist plummeted on the Moscow bourse.
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Gas group Novatek, owned by Putin-ally Gennady Timchenko, has dropped 16pc since he was named. He has had to sell his 43pc stake in Gunvor to his partner in order to save the firm, the world’s fourth largest oil trader.
Zoom

Liquefied natural gas map of Europe
Visa and Mastercard halted transactions for Rossiya bank. Mr Putin said defiantly that he would make sure his salary was transferred to a new account at Rossiya “first thing Monday morning”.
They also cut off SMP bank, co-owned by Mr Putin’s judo partner Arkady Rotenberg, though the bank itself was not named – evidence that US firms will not take any risks with US regulators.
Aluminium group Rusal is in talks with lenders to delay rolling over some of its $10bn debt, a sign that Russian companies with $650bn of debt may struggle to refinance loans. An estimated $155bn must be rolled over this year.
“Until yesterday people thought there would two months of shouting and then we get back to business, but nobody is quite sure anymore,” said one Moscow banker. “What’s worrying the markets is that there will be more US sanctions. Russian companies are extremely vulnerable. The real fragility is whether they can roll over their debts.”
Tim Ash, from Standard Bank, said Washington is determined to make Mr Putin pay for changing Europe’s borders by force, and will ratchet up “stealth sanctions” by regulatory muscle. “Foreign companies will have to be very careful who their partners in Russia are,” he said.
American agencies will probe deeper into the origin of funds, using money-laundering codes to tighten the noose. Mr Ash said the US will step up sanctions even if there is no direct Russian incursion into mainland Ukraine. Any attempt to destabilise the Ukrainian government will be punished. “The Kremlin has misread the Americans badly,” he said.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel – emerging as Europe’s dominant figure in the crisis – said there had been an “unbelievable loss of trust in Russia” since the seizure of Crimea. She called for measures to ensure that gas flows can be reversed to supply the most exposed states in eastern Europe.
Professor Alan Riley, from City University, called the comments a “solidarity statement”, pledging that Germany will funnel some of its own gas from the Nord Stream pipeline to Poland, Slovakia and others if need be. “Putin would not dare cut off Germany itself,” he said.
Mr Riley said the EU had spent €1.3bn building inter-connector links across Europe since 2009. All new pipelines have reversible flows. “The EU could probably withstand a cut-off in Russian gas. Putin is far less dangerous today than he was in 2009,” he said.
The pan-EU group Gas Infrastructure Europe said Europe is currently well-stocked with 37bn cubic metres of gas – 47pc of storage capacity – as a result of a mild winter. “Most of the European transmission systems currently can withstand a disruption of Russian gas through Ukraine. The pipeline network is available for diverting gas flows in case of supply problems from Russia, from storage and LNG (liquefied natural gas),” said the group.
Eight EU states have LNG hubs, the largest in Britain and Spain. Poland’s new facility will come on stream this year. Deutsche Bank said gas reliance on Russia is 93pc in Slovakia, 83pc in Poland, 81pc in Hungary, 66pc in the Czech Republic and 61pc in Austria.

Germany's dependence is 35pc, falling to 29pc for oil and 19pc for coal. Very little of the country’s industry relies on power from gas.
The one island of vulnerability is the Baltic region, where Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania rely 100pc on Russian gas. There are plans afoot to send a “regas ship” to the area capable of supplying liquefied natural gas to a port in Lithuania. “President Barack Obama could commandeer all US regas ships in an emergency and send them to harbours in the Baltics,” said Mr Riley.
The new energy plans were tucked away in the so-called climate dossier of the EU summit but experts said there should be no doubt that the real aim is to confront Mr Putin.
Britain’s prime minister, David Cameron, said there is no symmetry in the economic damage that each side can do to the other, arguing that Russia’s reliance on Gazprom sales matters far more than Europe’s reliance on Gazprom. "Russia needs Europe more than Europe needs Russia," he said.
Yet how the clash between Russia and the West goes is not really driven by economic calculation, and may escalate regardless of sanctions. Mr Putin’s core demand is that Ukraine remains “politically neutral”, certainly outside the Western military camp. The EU swept this grievance aside on Friday by signing an Association Agreement that includes a clause calling for the “gradual convergence between the EU and the Ukraine in the areas of foreign and security policy, including the Common Security and Defence Policy”.
Mr Yatsenyuk played up the military angle, describing the main thrust of the accord as “security and defence cooperation”. Diplomats said this was a red rag to a bull.
“This Association Agreement cuts right across Russia’s geopolitical orbit and I wonder if it’s entirely wise,” said Mats Persson, from Open Europe. “It was a mistake to make Ukraine choose between the EU and Russia. Now they risk repeating that mistake.”
Ian Bond, from the Centre for European Reform, said the military tie is mostly low-key cooperation on tactical issues. “This is not NATO by the back-door, and we are not going to see EU divisions lining up on the Russian border,” he said.
The question is whether Mr Putin sees it that way. Mrs Merkel said last week that he had “lost touch with reality”.

Europe scrambles to break gas dependence on Russia, offers Ukraine military tie - Telegraph

[bolo121]

Kal's cartoon in this weeks economist says it all.