COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

[Firestorm]

THE PRESIDENT: All I want them to do — very simple — I want them to be appreciative. I don’t want them to say things that aren’t true. I want them to be appreciative. We’ve done a great job. And I’m not talking about me. I’m talking about Mike Pence, the task force; I’m talking about FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers.

THE PRESIDENT: Because we have done — we have done a job, the likes of which nobody has seen...

Q So it’s the words they’re saying that you’re concerned about? It’s not that they’re —

THE PRESIDENT: I think they should be appreciative because you know what? When they’re not appreciative to me, they’re not appreciative to the Army Corps. They’re not appreciative to FEMA. It’s not right. These people are incredible. They’re working 24 hours a day. Mike Pence — I mean, Mike Pence, I don’t think he sleeps anymore. These — these are people that should be appreciated.

The disrespect to FEMA was apparently not a problem when the FEMA death camps conspiracy theory was being peddled by the American right in 2016.

[tbm3fan]

Thought the French one qualified

Not quite as it was pointed out there were limitations. Now it was just announced that NIH is going to begin a trial to test the drugs. This will be a by the book clinical trial by the NIH. I participated in a NIH research study regarding the retina and diabetes back in 1979-81 and when I left it wasn't done yet.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21R2OM

[astralis]

AR,

Astralis,

Not tracking your comment on Governors being force people back to work....do you mean through unemployment benefits?

nah, just poorly worded on my part. it's up to the governors to lift their respective state lockdowns/shelter-in-place-- no forcing function from them either, though.

once they do so, however, corporate America will almost certainly start forcing people back to the workplace, like this...special... BoA exec is already telling people.

[astralis]

I was thinking about opening up the borders back up to at least get the commercial traffics free flowing again, especially food ... and the resulting untested drivers criss-crossing the borders.

maybe, but I doubt it-- at least not from the Mexico side. when this gets into Mexico City...oh man.

[Double Edge]

Not quite as it was pointed out there were limitations.

Yeah sure there are caveats with that test. HCQ is not something people can self administer, it requires monitoring by a qualified physician.

It is OTC or i should say was for Malaria until the Indian govt restricted it to prescription only. Likely to
a) stop people stockpiling and
b) self-administering without professional guidance.

Here is one from Italy. Not a clinical study but what front line workers are using

https://time.com/collection/coronavi...treating-home/

Problem ? the world wants India to cough up enough HCQ to do it.

After the US, there's 29 more countries in the line

As far as i know we've approved delivery of HCQ to the US & Brazil. Contravening an earlier export restriction.

Am guessing Japan is another likely recipient in the not too distant future.

Modi, Abe, Bolsonaro & Trump get along.

Now it was just announced that NIH is going to begin a trial to test the drugs. This will be a by the book clinical trial by the NIH. I participated in a NIH research study regarding the retina and diabetes back in 1979-81 and when I left it wasn't done yet.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21R2OM

Nothing like a proper clinical test, there are so many things that we don't know yet with this virus.

[Double Edge]

DE,



what he means by that is simply that by controlling the supply, he can get the governors to "be appreciative" as quid pro quo for getting it.

he's already said as much.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...s-briefing-13/

Q So what I’m asking is: What more, specifically, do you want the governor of Washington and the governor of Michigan to be doing?

THE PRESIDENT: All I want them to do — very simple — I want them to be appreciative. I don’t want them to say things that aren’t true. I want them to be appreciative. We’ve done a great job. And I’m not talking about me. I’m talking about Mike Pence, the task force; I’m talking about FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers.

THE PRESIDENT: Because we have done — we have done a job, the likes of which nobody has seen...

Q So it’s the words they’re saying that you’re concerned about? It’s not that they’re —

THE PRESIDENT: I think they should be appreciative because you know what? When they’re not appreciative to me, they’re not appreciative to the Army Corps. They’re not appreciative to FEMA. It’s not right. These people are incredible. They’re working 24 hours a day. Mike Pence — I mean, Mike Pence, I don’t think he sleeps anymore. These — these are people that should be appreciated.

He calls all the governors. I tell him — I mean, I’m a different type of person — I say, “Mike, don’t call the governor of Washington. You’re wasting your time with him. Don’t call the woman in Michigan.” All — it doesn’t make any difference what happens —

Q You don’t want him to call the governor of Washington?

THE PRESIDENT: No, no. You know what I say? If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call. He’s a different type of person. He’ll call quietly anyway. Okay? But he’s done a great job. He should be appreciated for the job he’s done.

OK clearer now. But that word appreciative makes him sound petty.

What if instead of appreciative we use cooperative ? yeah i know he didn't say cooperative but i'm interpreting it that way

What are the consequences of states governors not cooperating.

If governors won't listen to him it makes no sense to call them up. You have a federal structure with a fair degree of states autonomy so he can't make them do what he wants unlike leaders in other countries. Mine for example.

And no, threats won't work. At least not inside the US i'd have thought but its SOP for him with other countries.

He openly threatens other countries if they do not "cooperate"

That's his style. Hard balling any one and every one to get what he wants.

We deal with it like any other in the same predicament.

[TopHatter]

OK clearer now. But that word appreciative makes him sound petty.

What if instead of appreciative we use cooperative ? yeah i know he didn't say cooperative but i'm interpreting it that way

DE, he IS petty. Every last gram of his being is petty. He didn't mean "Cooperative". He said appreciative and he meant it. As in "appreciative to Donald Trump".

Appreciative...Loyal....Fawning...Worshipful...Obs equious

[Double Edge]

Trump is pushing this drug because he’s been buying it. That means some or all of the following:

• He’s staked his ego as well as the taxpayers’ money on this drug, and doesn’t want to look foolish by buying up something that doesn’t work.
• He hopes to control the supply of the first drug known to work in order to squeeze state governors on this like he’s squeezing them on ventilators and PPE.
• Somehow, somewhere, Jared Kushner sees a way to make money off the federal (“our”) stockpile of this drug.
• Trump thinks this is somehow going to magically re-elect him come November third, because that’s what this is really all about…

He got asked by Jim Acosta of CNN whether he had any investments in HCQ

Q You don’t have any investments in hydro — hydroxychloroquine?

THE PRESIDENT: No, I don’t.

Q Okay.

THE PRESIDENT: No, I don’t. Thanks. Good question.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...s-briefing-22/

[Double Edge]

You said that Apr 06

i agree, that's why i said it's not going to be that high overall. however, given the current closed case ratio and assuming it remains steady -- and it has, roughly, over the last few weeks-- you're still looking at 100,000-300,000 dead Americans in a month.

that's why Trump put out those figures-- 100,000-240,000 dead Americans even with mitigation factors. I suspect we're going to be at the higher end because state implementation of mitigation has been spotty.

Two days later the people who made the Act Now & IHME models are walking it back. Those are the two sources your govt quoted those figures from.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...s-briefing-22/

Q Last week, your top experts were saying that we should expect 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in this country. You’ve been talking about how it looks like maybe things are plateauing. Are these numbers now being revised downward? I know you don’t want people to stop social distancing and that sort of thing, but what can you tell us about the numbers? Are they being revised down?

THE PRESIDENT: My — yeah. My impression, Jim, is those were the numbers that were set, and they were set as an expectation from quite a while ago. I think we’re just doing much better than those numbers.

f either of you would like to talk about that, it’s a fair question.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Deborah?

THE PRESIDENT: Do you want to come up? Deborah?

Q I know Dr. Redfield said something about it too.

DR. BIRX: Yeah, so, I think all of you — many of you have done the analysis of the same models that we utilized. And if you do the models of the models, you end up with that range. At the same time, we’ve carefully looked at Italy and Spain. And we are doing much better, in many cases, than several other countries. And we’re trying to understand that.

US is NOT Italy

We believe that our healthcare delivery system in the United States is quite extraordinary. I know many of you are watching the Act Now model and the IHME model from — and they have consistently decreased the number, the mortality from over almost 90,000 or 86,000, down to 81,000 and now down to 61,000. That is modeled on what America is doing. That’s what’s happening.

And I think what has been so remarkable, I think to those of us who have been in the science fields for so long, is how important behavioral change is and how amazing Americans are in adapting to and following through on these behavioral changes. And that’s what’s changing the rate of new cases, and that’s what will change the mortality going forward, because now we’re into the time period of full mitigation that should be reflected within the coming weeks of decreasing mortality. I mean, that’s what we really hope to see.

We are impressed by the American people. And I think models are models. I’ve always worked on validating. I’ve spent my life validating models all over the world, and that’s why we do surveys and surveillance and we make sure that what we think is right is right.

I think this will change how people look at respiratory diseases because it will change what is possible when the globe, and particularly the American people, do this level of mitigation. I think, as I talked about yesterday, we are still — we are still in awe, really, of the American people’s strength in this and following through.

Why are the people running those models revising them down ? Deborah Birx thinks its because of social distancing

Is it ?

I always wondered where the extra numbers would come from to the extent you can get deaths in the 100 - 250k and you think the higher end of that range.

You have just under 10k deaths so far.

It's quite a jump to be 10 - 30x that in a month.

How many died from flu last year ? estimates are 29 - 59k

So 5x is feasible. I don't know about time period. A period of months not in a month.

Just to make a point, nobody actually dies of the flu, they die of complications on top and its pneumonia that kills them. They were admitted as influenza cases so they call them flu deaths.

61k is in the ball park of flu deaths

[Officer of Engineers]

maybe, but I doubt it-- at least not from the Mexico side. when this gets into Mexico City...oh man.

If you believe that it's not hitting them yet, I've got a bridge to sell you. They're a country of 130 million people and did 25,000 tests. Canada, a country of 27 million did 320,000 tests. The US, 300 million people did around 2.5 million tests. As with everywhere else where detection has not been performed, the young get sick, the weak dies. If the bodies are not tested for COVID-19 and at 25,000 tests, it would strongly suggest that they are not, then it's pneumonia.

Hell, the Mexican government had to come out and implore its citizens NOT to physically attack front line COVID-19 health workers. Either willingly or ignorantly, the Mexicans are turning a blind eye to COVID-19. We are NOT going to get any accurate picture out of Mexico.

However, I can see strong pressure to ease the borders. The border towns on both sides of the US-Mexican border have equivlenet standards of living. It is NOT uncommon for Mexicans to make day trips into the US to shop for bargins ... and vice versa, just as the same on the US-Canada border. A hell of a lot of businesses rely on those spending Mexicans.

[TopHatter]

Trump Keeps Talking. Some Republicans Don’t Like What They’re Hearing.

WASHINGTON — In his daily briefings on the coronavirus, President Trump has brandished all the familiar tools in his rhetorical arsenal: belittling Democratic governors, demonizing the media, trading in innuendo and bulldozing over the guidance of experts.

It’s the kind of performance the president relishes, but one that has his advisers and Republican allies worried.

As unemployment soars and the death toll skyrockets, and new polls show support for the president’s handling of the crisis sagging, White House allies and Republican lawmakers increasingly believe the briefings are hurting the president more than helping him. Many view the sessions as a kind of original sin from which all of his missteps flow, once he gets through his prepared script and turns to his preferred style of extemporaneous bluster and invective.

Mr. Trump “sometimes drowns out his own message,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has become one of the president’s informal counselors and told him “a once-a-week show” could be more effective. Representative Susan Brooks of Indiana said “they’re going on too long.” Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia said the briefings were “going off the rails a little bit” and suggested that he should “let the health professionals guide where we’re going to go.”

Even the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board chastised the president for his behavior at the briefings. “Covid-19 isn’t shifty Schiff,” it wrote in an editorial on Thursday, using Mr. Trump’s nickname for Representative Adam Schiff. “It’s a once-a-century threat to American life and livelihood.”

With only intermittent attempts to adapt to a moment of crisis, Mr. Trump is effectively wagering that he can win re-election in the midst of a national emergency on a platform of polarization.

In interviews, Republican lawmakers, administration officials and members of his re-election campaign said they wanted Mr. Trump to limit his error-filled appearances at the West Wing briefings and move more aggressively to prepare for the looming recession. Some even suggested he summon a broader range of the country’s leaders, including former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, in an all-hands-on-deck moment to respond to the national emergency.

The consternation reflects a new sense of urgency over Mr. Trump’s re-election efforts as Joseph R. Biden Jr. emerges as his likely Democratic challenger. Three new polls this week show Mr. Biden leading the president, and the Trump campaign’s internal surveys show he has mostly lost the initial bump he received early in the crisis, according to three people briefed on the numbers. Public polls show he badly trails the nation’s governors and his own medical experts in terms of whom Americans trust most for guidance.

“I told him your opponent is no longer Joe Biden — it’s this virus,” Mr. Graham said.

One of Mr. Trump’s top political advisers, speaking on the condition of anonymity so as not to anger the president, was even blunter, arguing that the White House was handing Mr. Biden ammunition each night by sending the president out to the cameras.

Vice President Mike Pence, this adviser said, should be the M.C. because he projects more empathy than the president, rarely makes mistakes and, as a former governor and the chief of the coronavirus task force, has a better grasp on the details of the response.

Yet the publicity-obsessed president is unlikely to relinquish his grip on the evening sessions: Mr. Trump has told aides he relishes the free television time and boffo ratings that come with his appearances, administration officials say.

He also views it as an opportunity to put forth his version of events and rebut the negative coverage he is receiving, as he showed in a tweet Thursday afternoon. On a day that New York State reported 799 deaths from the coronavirus in a 24-hour period, Mr. Trump’s focus was on himself, and his feuds.

@realDonaldTrump
The Wall Street Journal always “forgets” to mention that the ratings for the White House Press Briefings are “through the roof” (Monday Night Football, Bachelor Finale, according to @nytimes) & is only way for me to escape the Fake News & get my views across. WSJ is Fake News!

There is some preliminary evidence that Mr. Trump is heeding the Republicans’ concerns. On Wednesday and Thursday, Mr. Trump made what were for him relatively brief appearances before leaving the room and turning the podium over to Mr. Pence and Drs. Anthony S. Fauci and Deborah Birx. Whether it lasts remains to be seen.

Deep divisions remain in the White House and the Republican Party over how quickly to ease social distancing orders and urge Americans to return to school and work. Some who have Mr. Trump’s ear, like Mr. Graham, are urging prudence. But a number of Republican lawmakers and Fox News personalities are lobbying the president to reopen the economy as quickly as possible.

Amid the conflicting advice, the president’s gut instincts and fondness for showmanship have won out, prompting him to frequently contradict or simply obscure the scientists who polls show are most trusted by voters.

And it’s not just an overwhelming majority of voters who believe the medical experts should be center stage: Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, personally urged Mr. Trump at the start of the crisis to let Drs. Fauci and Birx be the face of the response, according to a Republican official familiar with their conversation.

Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, said: “Any suggestion that President Trump is struggling on tone or message is completely false. During these difficult times, Americans are receiving comfort, hope and resources from their president, as well as their local officials, and Americans are responding in unprecedented ways.”

Some of Mr. Trump’s aides have quietly suggested to him that he ratchet back his public attacks on the governors who have emerged as leaders in the response to the virus. But they acknowledge their efforts can be something of a fool’s errand; the president has his style and he won’t change, they say.

His attacks on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a popular Democrat and potential vice-presidential pick for Mr. Biden — whom Mr. Trump called a “half-Whit” and “that woman” — were of particular concern to some aides and political advisers, who believe he risked alienating voters in a pivotal state.

Representative Paul Mitchell, a Michigan Republican, said he had contacted a senior White House official, as well as Ms. Whitmer herself, to express his unhappiness about their mutual sniping.

“It is not helpful to hurl names and talk about badly about people,” Mr. Mitchell said. “We need to focus on the problem.”

At Mr. Trump’s re-election campaign, staff members have closely monitored internal polling data showing an erosion of the gains Mr. Trump made immediately after he put social distancing guidelines in place. Advisers are torn between knowing that a less abrasive approach would help Mr. Trump and their awareness that he can’t tolerate criticism, regardless of the setting.

Mr. Trump’s limited gains in the polls are all the more striking when compared with those made by governors in both parties; many are enjoying double-digit gains in their approval ratings. And Mr. Trump’s penchant for ad hominem attacks, Republicans say, illustrates why he has little room for growth among the electorate.

“He can’t escape his instincts, his desire to put people down, like Mitt Romney, or to talk about his ratings,” said former Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican. “That’s why he’s not getting the George W. Bush post-9/11 treatment. A leader in this sort of crisis should have a 75-to-80-percent approval rating.”

That would prove difficult for even a more conventional president at a time the country is so politically divided, but a number of prominent Republicans believe Mr. Trump has hurt himself by making only the most halting attempts at demonstrating an above-the-fray unity.

For example, aides to both Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama said that neither had been asked by the White House to do anything to aid the response to the crisis.

“The model of Obama asking Bush and Clinton to work on Haiti is a really good model,” said former Gov. Bill Haslam of Tennessee, recalling how Mr. Obama deployed Mr. Bush and former President Bill Clinton to lead the United States’ assistance to Haiti after the devastating 2010 earthquake there.

But Mr. Haslam and other Republicans believe Mr. Trump needs to go much further. Mr. Haslam called for creating a recovery team and installing “the economic equivalent of Dr. Fauci” as its leader. Asked whom he had in mind, Mr. Haslam suggested Mitch Daniels, who previously served as the governor of Indiana, the head of the Office of Management and Budget and as chief executive of the pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly.

A number of senators, including Mr. Graham, are also pushing for a sort of economic task force to complement the virus task force.

“The administration needs to be thinking through what does it look like to get back to business,” said Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, suggesting that it should “give a lot of thought to how we scale back up economically, because that’s going to be the next big challenge for us.”

The health of the economy may pose the biggest challenge to Mr. Trump’s re-election.

Mr. Toomey said he “won’t be surprised if we have 25 percent unemployment,” which would match the height of the Great Depression, by the start of the summer. But he said that if voters believed “the president has handled this well under the circumstances, and we’re on a good path, he has a shot.”

Other Republicans are more skeptical that Mr. Trump can win if he’s still saddled with double-digit unemployment in November. “I think that makes it really hard,” said Tony Fratto, a former Bush administration official.

And then there’s the matter of Mr. Trump and his conduct at the daily briefings.

Mr. Toomey has been outspoken about the need for Americans to wear masks when they leave home. Last week he had a 20-minute conversation with the president, whom he described as “thoughtful and engaged.”

By week’s end, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had issued guidelines: People should wear “cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain.” The agency’s decision was based in part on recent studies showing that people without symptoms can give the virus to others.

But in the same briefing where he announced the guidelines, Mr. Trump diminished the move as “a recommendation.”

“I just don’t want to wear one myself,” he said, explaining that he had no symptoms. “I am feeling good.”
_________________

Broken record, day after day, crisis after crisis: "If only Trump would shut up!" Yeah, right.

[astralis]

DE,

What are the consequences of states governors not cooperating.

If governors won't listen to him it makes no sense to call them up. You have a federal structure with a fair degree of states autonomy so he can't make them do what he wants unlike leaders in other countries. Mine for example.

governors are begging for federal help. they WANT the cooperation of the federal government.

Trump meant appreciative.

Why are the people running those models revising them down ? Deborah Birx thinks its because of social distancing

Is it ?

I always wondered where the extra numbers would come from to the extent you can get deaths in the 100 - 250k and you think the higher end of that range.

I sure hope so. check back again by the end of this month; there's a 2 week lag to case completion.

one thing to keep in mind: the OPTIMISTIC death toll of "only" 60,000 assumes strict measures are kept in place until the end of May. Trump is demanding the country re-open by the beginning of May.

[astralis]

If you believe that it's not hitting them yet, I've got a bridge to sell you. They're a country of 130 million people and did 25,000 tests. Canada, a country of 27 million did 320,000 tests. The US, 300 million people did around 2.5 million tests. As with everywhere else where detection has not been performed, the young get sick, the weak dies. If the bodies are not tested for COVID-19 and at 25,000 tests, it would strongly suggest that they are not, then it's pneumonia.

Hell, the Mexican government had to come out and implore its citizens NOT to physically attack front line COVID-19 health workers. Either willingly or ignorantly, the Mexicans are turning a blind eye to COVID-19. We are NOT going to get any accurate picture out of Mexico.

oh, it's there for sure. same with Brazil, and India, and Africa.

the US will probably see peak around mid-late April. those other places are a few weeks behind.

[Double Edge]

maybe, but I doubt it-- at least not from the Mexico side. when this gets into Mexico City...oh man.

Mexican leadership seems not very concerned. I find this odd given what's happening in the EU.

This is the ....oh man part. Unless the reports aren't telling us something.

Don't want to panic people but at the same cannot tell them everything will continue as normal.

The time for them to act is now not wait.

oh, it's there for sure. same with Brazil, and India, and Africa.

Commentators that say this have no clue about India or Africa : )

Africa is a big place, many countries with lots of time to prepare, some will do better than others.

I'm locked in since Mar 23, man with the likelihood of being extended another two weeks. And i expect this will be the case for three quarters of the country.

I get why Americans cannot understand how you lock down a country like India because it would be impossible to do so in the US.

[Double Edge]

DE,



governors are begging for federal help. they WANT the cooperation of the federal government.

Trump meant appreciative.

Some questions were asked in this regard

Q Thank you, sir. Can you explain the thinking behind these 100 ventilators that were given to Colorado when other states, like Kansas, have had trouble getting ventilators? And can you say whether a personal relationship with the President is helping states like Colorado get these ventilators? I mean, there are 15 states that have more cases than Colorado.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Well, what I could say is that we’ve been watching Denver very closely. And like many of the other key areas that I touched on, it — we’re — we’re beginning to see some encouraging news. But in our interactions with — with the governor and with local officials and with the senator, we’ve made an effort not only in Colorado, but around the country to be particularly responsive to states where — where we’ve seen a growth in cases.

But I’m going to let Dr. Birx speak to that as well. There’s — literally beginning with New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Louisiana, the Detroit area in Michigan, the Chicago area, there’s a series of other cities, including Denver, that we’ve been watching very carefully. And while we’re beginning to see some encouraging news, we want healthcare workers in those communities to know for certain that that we’re going to move resources into those areas where we see significant outbreak.

You know what i'm thinking. There is scope to play politics here for both sides.

TH says squeeze. But states that feel some one else got it over them for whatever reason can accuse him of favourtism or not doing enough. That's a never ending spat.

So he says show some appreciation. Yeah, i agree the word is appreciation now.

Don't know the reporter that asked this question?

Q Can you just address the point about whether —

DR. BIRX: Yeah.

Q — whether individual governors’ relationships with the — with the President are getting preferential treatment?

DR. BIRX: I can tell you, within that decision complex is not just the absolute number of cases, it’s the hospital capacity and what each of those hospitals have.

So remember, I think a couple of days ago, we talked about how the states are sending the information about ICU beds, hospital beds, ventilator needs.

So different states have different — which I don’t think any of us probably knew before this, but there are some states that have lots of ventilators, and there’s other states that, proportion to their population or by their cases of COVID, have less. And so I’m sure Denver and Colorado fit into that model where there were hospitals that had less ventilators proportionately and were needed for the cases that we’re seeing.

So, that’s the kind of analysis. So, every state that has cases — a little — has a few cases more than Colorado have all received ventilators, except for, I think, Texas. And that’s just because they are just starting — remember we started — Colorado was one early on the curve, so they have many more people who have moved through that progress and are in need of ventilators. Texas is very early in their curve in both Dallas and Houston. So that’s what I was talking about; each of these are a micro curve that we have to follow independently or we would be making general decisions, rather than specific decisions by geography.

There is no squeeze going on here. Just insinuations of favouritism or more accurately noise.

I sure hope so. check back again by the end of this month; there's a 2 week lag to case completion.

one thing to keep in mind: the OPTIMISTIC death toll of "only" 60,000 assumes strict measures are kept in place until the end of May.

Trump is demanding the country re-open by the beginning of May.

Well he said Easter first and when pushed about it said it was aspirational. In this one he's non-committal about the date. I think its safe to say you're not relaxing come May. If that is the month you expect to peak. Peak earlier then maybe.

Even if you flat line some time this month it will take another month to start dropping.

End of may and you're death toll is in the 50 - 100k ball park : )

Q Do you think we will be on track for that by May 1st?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, right now, we’re — I mean, we’re doing well in terms of the numbers. I can’t tell you in terms of the date. You know, we don’t want to — we don’t want to go down, and then we can start going up, if we’re not careful. So, we have to be careful.

As far as distancing — social distancing and other things — certainly for a while. You know, at some point, that’s going away. We’ll be able to sit next to each other and every — like we have all our lives. This is a very unique thing. This has not happened, anything like this, of this magnitude, since 1917, 1918, the great pandemic. That was — that was something.

But — yeah, no, people want to sit next to each other at restaurants. They want to sit next to each other like normal at a football game, baseball game, basketball game, hockey game. No, we want to go back to life.

Now, the first period of time, maybe we’ll go a little bit slower and maybe we’ll be talking about distancing. But at some point, we expect to be back like it was before. And hopefully it’ll never happen. Hopefully it will — if it does happen it’s going to be in a hundred years from now. The last one, 1917 — that’s something. That’s a long time ago. And that was — that was a horrible thing.

Saying he wants to open beginning of May makes people think this will end soon. Just people management.

He does say its not fixed and unless the curves play along he won't relax otherwise it will come back again.

You see this pattern being played out in numerous countries, I was told a voluntary curfew for a day, next i knew it was for a week and then the day after three weeks.

The joke is i got 3 days warning for 24h lock down and only 4 h warning for 21 day lock down

With the option for another 14 days on top.....