COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

[astralis]

Also not quite. The 79-21 ratio is based on the severe cases, ie those cases that relies on hospitalization and does not include those who recovers from home ... and certainly do not include those un-infected which today is numbering at 7+ billion people.

no, it's based on all -tested/confirmed- cases, not just severe cases/hospitalized cases.

iE right now we have 327,939 closed cases, which is -very- close to the total number of detected infections as of 14 days ago (Mar 22)-- 337,459.

of course, this doesn't mean that 21% of all infected people die. there is a bias towards the sick (edit: although this is improving as the number of tests increase) when it comes to tested cases, after all, and there is a not insignificant number of people who are asymptomatic.

[Double Edge]

I would have thought engineers know a little maths; total number of worldwide known cases (and therefore probably incomplete) 1,237,420. Total number of worldwide known deaths from Covid-19 67,260 which makes fatality rate around 5%.

It's that incomplete part that drops the fatality rate and i would not be surprised if that rate is under 1% when all is said and done.

[astralis]

DE,

It's that incomplete part that drops the fatality rate and i would not be surprised if that rate is under 1% when all is said and done.

in developed countries, where testing is becoming more and more prevalent, we're getting a -better- sense of the true mortality rate.

IE in the US, which lagged on testing (and we still do, although it's gotten significantly better), we've done 1.4 million tests as of April 3 and we had ~270,000 positive cases back then (up to 330K today, jesus).

so, most people tested turn out NOT to be infected. thankfully it's looking like we don't have this massive pool of sick people that we don't know about -- the current level of transmission is bad enough.

[Double Edge]

in developed countries, where testing is becoming more and more prevalent, we're getting a -better- sense of the true mortality rate.

So its finally up and going. Nobody is complaining about lack of test kits any more : D

IE in the US, which lagged on testing (and we still do, although it's gotten significantly better), we've done 1.4 million tests as of April 3 and we had ~270,000 positive cases back then (up to 330K today, jesus).

US Covid Tracking Project

They don't mention how many people that number of tests translates into. So only the positives can be considered as number of infected. That's 330k that wont be infecting others. Broken chains of infection.

Just 0.2% needs to be on the ventilator. And people were screaming about lack of them. De Blasio wanted more because he did not want to decide who didn't get one. ALL are getting one. Or are they ?

I see data for states on this ventilators parameter missing so maybe that is total -known- so far in the US and not -all- of the US.

so, most people tested turn out NOT to be infected. thankfully it's looking like we don't have this massive pool of sick people that we don't know about -- the current level of transmission is bad enough.

Depends on the kind of tests you are doing. Whether antigen or serological. If its the serological ones then people need a sufficient viral load to be detected and won't be tested for risk of a false negative and releasing a suspect infected back into the population. The higher number of negatives could be due to that ?

or the test kits you have are reliable enough and its true that 4 out of 5 tests are negative.

If you are using antigen tests like the Germans then you can reliably detect even mildly infected. Am wondering whether US wanting to roll their own was for these kind or just more reliable kits than what was available from WHO.

US hit ratio is 1 in 5 tests gets a positive. Wonder what the German ratio is like. Possibly higher.

[Officer of Engineers]

no, it's based on all -tested/confirmed- cases, not just severe cases/hospitalized cases.

Can't be. Current infected is 936,473 of which 890,941 (95%) is mild, ie expected to fully recover with zero medical intervention. The rest, 45,532 (5%), is critical/serious. This group is where the deaths will be coming from. Even if all 45K are fatal, that still would not make 21% ... unless you're using Snapper math.

[snapper]

You can't read, can you. The 0.2% is based on the 20-39 year old demographics. Try upgrading your English comprehesion before you try math.

Yes I can read but you maybe cannot remember. "20-39 year old demographics" you did not mention.

With a 0.2% fatality rate? Risk well withiin acceptable limits.

That was your previous statement. No mention of age range. If you now wish to qualify it you are free to do so.

[tbm3fan]

Captain Crozier tests positive for the virus and began exhibiting symptoms before he left the carrier.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/polit...avy/index.html

The Navy captain removed from command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt last week after warning that action was needed to save the lives of his crew from a coronavirus outbreak has tested positive for the virus, according to The New York Times on Sunday.
Capt. Brett Crozier began exhibiting symptoms before he was removed from the warship on Thursday, the Times reported, citing two Naval Academy classmates of Crozier's who are close to him and his family.
CNN has reached out to the Navy for comment. A Navy spokesman declined to comment to the Times on Crozier's status...

[astralis]

Can't be. Current infected is 936,473 of which 890,941 (95%) is mild, ie expected to fully recover with zero medical intervention. The rest, 45,532 (5%), is critical/serious. This group is where the deaths will be coming from.

no, it just means they were "mild" when they were being -tested-.

this does not mean it will always remain mild. so you get deaths from both groups, of course weighted towards those whom are already critical/serious at the time of testing.

Even if all 45K are fatal, that still would not make 21%

i agree, that's why i said it's not going to be that high overall. however, given the current closed case ratio and assuming it remains steady -- and it has, roughly, over the last few weeks-- you're still looking at 100,000-300,000 dead Americans in a month.

that's why Trump put out those figures-- 100,000-240,000 dead Americans even with mitigation factors. I suspect we're going to be at the higher end because state implementation of mitigation has been spotty.

[Officer of Engineers]

i agree, that's why i said it's not going to be that high overall. however, given the current closed case ratio and assuming it remains steady -- and it has, roughly, over the last few weeks-- you're still looking at 100,000-300,000 dead Americans in a month.

To get that figure, you need 10,000 dead Americans per day. To get that, you need 100,000 new infections per day. You're not getting that.

[tbm3fan]

Philadelphia in 1918.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/u...=pocket-newtab

[GVChamp]

Wife's hospital is now over-full and she spends the beginning hour of every shift processing hospice orders for people who are not going to make it. I think it was 2 weeks ago that her hospital was empty.

Don't really have a comment besides that. Just seemed like something that should be shared.

[astralis]

To get that figure, you need 10,000 dead Americans per day. To get that, you need 100,000 new infections per day. You're not getting that.

I certainly hope not. however, I note that our daily new case load is -still- accelerating (up to 34K cases in one day), and we still don't have a national lockdown.

accordingly, death rate is still accelerating too. 1330 deaths on 4 April, and that group got the disease back when caseload was only at 24,192...bad.

it's going to get worse at medical systems get overwhelmed, as GVChamp sadly points out.

[Double Edge]

i agree, that's why i said it's not going to be that high overall. however, given the current closed case ratio and assuming it remains steady -- and it has, roughly, over the last few weeks-- you're still looking at 100,000-300,000 dead Americans in a month.

that's why Trump put out those figures-- 100,000-240,000 dead Americans even with mitigation factors. I suspect we're going to be at the higher end because state implementation of mitigation has been spotty.

You have just under 10k deaths so far.

It's quite a jump to be 10 - 30x that in a month.

How many died from flu last year ? estimates are 29 - 59k

So 5x is feasible. I don't know about time period. A period of months not in a month.

Just to make a point, nobody actually dies of the flu, they die of complications on top and its pneumonia that kills them. They were admitted as influenza cases so they call them flu deaths.

[Double Edge]

I certainly hope not. however, I note that our daily new case load is -still- accelerating (up to 34K cases in one day), and we still don't have a national lockdown.

Neither did China. They just did a Taiwan on Hubei.

50% of your cases are from NY

[astralis]

DE,

You have just under 10k deaths so far.

It's quite a jump to be 10 - 30x that in a month.

that's not quite a jump at all because growth rates are exponential. remember, there's a 2-week lag for COVID to progress to completion. 2 weeks ago, we had 24,000 cases.

now, we're at 336,000 cases. we won't see the deaths resulting from these infections until 2 weeks from now.

Neither did China. They just did a Taiwan on Hubei.

50% of your cases are from NY

they can try to isolate it, but that slows down the speed, not stop it. "doing a Taiwan" is not really possible because Hubei ain't an island.

re: the US, it's actually closer to 1/3, not 1/2 from NY. IE, you can't just isolate NY and stop the virus-- it's far too late for that. NY is about to go into its highest mortality phase this coming week.