The US 2020 Presidential Election & Attempts To Overturn It

[tbm3fan]

is it really "punting" when it has been clear to all since 2016 that GOP principles are defined by Trump at his whim?

the only surprise to me in the TNC is that Nikki Haley chose such a prominent role. if Trump goes down in November, this will hang around her neck for a long time to come.

I made a change which is more accurate today. RIP RNC...

[DOR]

[QUOTE=tantalus;1068141]

Imagine the white house is occupied by a run of the mill republican. Covid strikes. Its a struggle to manage because of testing misfires, social and political dyfunction, structural challeges within american society, politically, socially/culturally and economically, and the fact this is a god damn contagious virus. The economy tanks.

Just to be clear: sane, rational, competent, empathic, sympathetic, pro-science leadership from a GOPer White House.
Is that the scenario? Do we get the Easter Bunny, too, or is that extra?

Do you select Joe Biden as the challenger?

Is this a trick question?
The last Democratic VP is almost always going to be the front runner when going up against a GOPer-held White House.
Truman.
Humphrey.
Mondale.
Gore.
Biden.
See the pattern?

And if yes, what does he run on?

Two separate questions.
What he runs on is the Democratic Platform, ca. 2016. He runs on his record in his previous job, and his character, and his values.
Democrats in the 21st century always, without exception, are the values candidates.

What are his central messages to the electorate?

Things are a mess.
Elect me, and things will get better.

[astralis]

with any run of the mill candidate, Dem or Republican, the current COVID situation would have been significantly better.

the economy wouldn't have tanked as much.

however, that's all beyond the timeline of the actual Dem primary. the entire race was already down to Sanders vs Biden by end of February 2020, and had already decisively swung to Biden's favor by mid-March. at this point in time, the US was just at the beginning of feeling the COVID pain.

[tantalus]

Just to be clear: sane, rational, competent, empathic, sympathetic, pro-science leadership from a GOPer White House.
Is that the scenario? Do we get the Easter Bunny, too, or is that extra?

Iam guessing you wouldnt view that as run of the mill.

I meant...A respectable person with a different world view.

Is this a trick question?
The last Democratic VP is almost always going to be the front runner when going up against a GOPer-held White House.
Truman.
Humphrey.
Mondale.
Gore.
Biden.
See the pattern?

No trick. I am interested in your perspective. Or any democrats perspective.

Not the front runner but the best choice...A vp is picked for a specific set of reasons for a specific moment. Its a start but not an end for picking the best candidate for this moment.

Two separate questions.
What he runs on is the Democratic Platform, ca. 2016. He runs on his record in his previous job, and his character, and his values.
Democrats in the 21st century always, without exception, are the values candidates.

Things are a mess.
Elect me, and things will get better.

I am unclear what you mean by the value candidates ?

[tantalus]

with any run of the mill candidate, Dem or Republican, the current COVID situation would have been significantly better.

the economy wouldn't have tanked as much.

however, that's all beyond the timeline of the actual Dem primary. the entire race was already down to Sanders vs Biden by end of February 2020, and had already decisively swung to Biden's favor by mid-March. at this point in time, the US was just at the beginning of feeling the COVID pain.

Feels like an opportunity missed for sanders and biden to have placed out contrasting visions for a different society post covid.

It's not clear to me how much better the economy would have been. The health situation drastically so, iam guessing over the long run that would have paid itself back in the economy but it would have required a more economically damaging lockdown initially.

It seems that many americans are more comfortable with a higher death toll in exchange for more individual freedoms and the prospect of more economic activity.

[tantalus]

How Trump could pull off another upset

It feels like August of 2016 all over again. Polls show Donald Trump losing big. Pundits proclaim he can't win. Reporters sneer at Trump voters on Twitter and cable.

Why it matters: There are several signs that should give the Trump-is-toast self-assured pause.

• He’s doing better in some swing-state polls than he was at this point in 2016. And his floor of support holds strong, regardless of what he says or does.
• Not only is the stock market on fire, but a lot of blue-collar workers in building, plumbing and other manual crafts are doing quite well, too.

Trump’s big bet is that there are a lot of working class voters, especially in rural areas, who did not vote in 2016 but will this time.

• His other bet is that months of dumping on Joe Biden, often with lies or wild hyperbole, will do what he did to Hillary Clinton: Make the Democratic nominee seem slightly more unpalatable than himself.

The New York Times profiled a swath of Trump's steadfast supporters who "outlined myriad reasons for wanting to re-elect him, ranging from the pragmatic ... to a gut-level attraction to his hard-nosed personality."

• And the "social desirability" factor in polling — do we tell the blunt truth? — is a huge unknown this year because of the new attention to racial issues.

Behind the scenes: People in Trump’s orbit feel much better about the race than they did in mid-June.

• These officials feel the operation is becoming more disciplined, and is more centered around a message — that Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris embrace leftist policies, and won’t stand up to the violent excesses of the far left.

A few caveats: Biden has some strengths that Clinton didn’t. He's viewed more favorably — and is stronger among seniors, eating into Trump’s sweet spot.

• Women and college-educated whites have continued drifting away from Trump.
• And Trump now has a record to defend, so he doesn’t have the outsider factor that he exploited last time.

Although Biden isn’t as polarizing as Clinton inside or outside the Democratic Party, the Black Lives Matter movement and calls for social justice and progressive changes are tugging Biden to the left.

• President Obama recently told The New Yorker's Evan Osnos: "If you look at Joe Biden’s goals and Bernie Sanders’s goals, they’re not that different, from a forty-thousand-foot level."

Remember: A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found 13% of voters remain "in play," enough to tip the election.

• It also found Trump’s standing with Hispanics is as good if not better than 2016 — and had improved his image by 20 points among whites, who are more than 70% of the electorate.

_____________

Not only are Trump's poll numbers improving, but between relentless voter suppression by the GOP, aided and abetted by Louis DeJoy and the probability of COVID-19 keeping people away from polling centers and of course the Electoral College once again rescuing Trump from a multi-million popular vote deficit, it is entirely possible that he will obtain another four years.

Should biden target the working class more given how badly affected they are by covid?

[tbm3fan]

Feels like an opportunity missed for sanders and biden to have placed out contrasting visions for a different society post covid.

It's not clear to me how much better the economy would have been. The health situation drastically so, iam guessing over the long run that would have paid itself back in the economy but it would have required a more economically damaging lockdown initially.

It seems that many americans are more comfortable with a higher death toll in exchange for more individual freedoms and the prospect of more economic activity.

People have said they are Ok with taxes as long as it is the other guy paying them. It can also be applied to death...

[DOR]

tantalus,

I'm fresh out of examples of sane, rational, competent, empathic, sympathetic, pro-science leadership from a GOPer holding high office, let alone “a respectable person with a different world view.”

The “world view” between Democrats and Republicans isn't all that different.
It's the tactics, and the total lack of loyalty to nation over party, that is the main divide between us.

As for front runner vs. best choice, that's outside the realm of American politics in the last 40-50 years. The best possible candidate, as determined by the GOPers and reluctantly adopted by the Democrats, is the one who will win. Not a lot that matters after that, given the stakes.

Values candidates are the ones that voters identify as being more in favor of Mom, baseball, and apple pie. People with values that are considered representative of the best America has to offer.

Jimmy Carter was the top of the class in American history in that particular category, regardless of your politics. Two guesses who's on the bottom of the pile.

[TopHatter]

Unprecedented wave of GOP defections as Trump re-nominated

What started as a trickle of "Never Trumpers" has turned into a historic wave of defections from high-profile Republicans.

By the close of the 2020 Republican National Convention, nearly 500 current and former GOP officials have gone public opposing a second term for the president of their own party.

"Absolutely unprecedented; nothing remotely like it," said presidential historian Mark Updegrove.

The divide over President Donald Trump and Trumpism has raised existential questions for Republicans both about party identity and loyalty.

"It's become the party of Donald Trump and any whim he has," Updegrove said. "It's about personality and not political party or platform."

While nine in 10 Republican voters approve of Trump as president, opposition to his leadership inside the party establishment has mushroomed.

The protests span the ideological and generational spectrum on the political right -- from former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and one-time GOP presidential nominee Sen. Mitt Romney to former Trump national security adviser John Bolton and Defense Secretary James Mattis.

"He is going to hear from more people who served in his administration and hear more of them give the same testimony I gave, which is that he's ill-equipped to hold the office that he has," 33-year-old former Trump Homeland Security chief of staff Miles Taylor told ABC's "Good Morning America" last week.

Already ex-Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci and former Navy Secretary Richard Spencer have been loudly warning against the reelection of their former boss.

"Internal party conflicts have certainly happened before," said Princeton University political historian Kevin Kruse, "but we’ve never really seen anything of this size and scope. In all, the avalanche of criticism from Republican officials, past and present, against a sitting Republican president is stunning."

A group of 73 veteran Republican national security officials is running newspaper ads calling Trump a "danger." The GOP activist group The Lincoln Project is spending millions attacking the president in TV ads airing on Fox News.

On Monday, former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, who's never voted for a Democrat, joined more than two dozen Republican former members of Congress to publicly endorse Joe Biden.

"It is because of my conservatism and because of my belief in the Constitution and in the separation of powers, and because I'm gravely concerned about the conduct and behavior of our current president," Flake said.

Four Republicans last week -- including former Secretary of State Colin Powell -- went even further, speaking out against the president at the Democrats' convention in prime time.

"An avalanche like this -- and not just of low-level aides -- has certainly never happened in modern history," said political historian Allan Lichtman of American University. "It's a sign that at least at the ideological level, that this is a major rift within the Republican Party."

It's an extraordinary political family feud that many in the party's rank-and-file seem to be shrugging off.

"Donald Trump is going to win in November, and the reason he's going to win is because of the results of the last four years," said Republican congressional candidate Jake LaTurner of Kansas.

The president retains sky-high approval ratings from his base, drawing enthusiastic crowds and raising record-setting cash -- more than $165 million in July alone.

National party leaders insist the values of Republicanism remain unchanged, and that intraparty rebellions and high-profile defections are nothing new.

In 2004, Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia made waves when he delivered the RNC keynote address endorsing George W. Bush., and in 2008, Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman crossed the aisle to endorse his friend Republican John McCain.

"Endorsements don't matter much," said Lichtman. "For thoughtful persons they may be significant, but there's not a correlation historically between endorsements and election results."

But never have aisle-crossing endorsements reached this scale or had such vigor, giving some of the president's most loyal supporters reason for concern.

Evangelical pastor Bart Barber of Farmersville, Texas, a loyal Republican who plans to vote for Trump in November, told ABC News he's worried about what impact the president's behavior will have on the future of the party.

"I wouldn't hold up the president as an example of the kind of moral or religious perspective that I preach and that our church believes in and represents," Barber said. "I absolutely think the Republican Party has lost ground morally."

There's also tension over Trump's embrace of the political fringe, from birtherism and white nationalism to baseless online conspiracy theories like QAnon, which the FBI calls a domestic terror threat.

"The president often talks about how he gets a lot of ratings, but at the end of the day, people want problems solved -- not ratings or personal popularity," said former Virginia GOP congresswoman Barbara Comstock. "That's why some of our Republican governors are the most loyal people, whether or not they are loyal to this president."

Whether or not Trump wins in November, many in the party are resigned to the belief that Trumpism will be part of Republicanism for the foreseeable future.

"There's no question: this is Donald Trump's Republican party. But politics is often an exercise in addition, and certainly winning a campaign requires you to reach out to other people," said Sara Fagen, a former political adviser to President George W. Bush and ABC News contributor.

"We're in a place now where Donald Trump is behind," Fagen said, "and there's about 12% of the electorate who are soft Republicans. They like Donald Trump's policies, but they don't like him. But guess who they do like? They like President Bush; they like Mitt Romney. And (Trump is) going to have to appeal to that piece of Republican Party."
_________________

That "pastor" from Texas doesn't "hold up the president as an example of the kind of moral or religious perspective that he preaches and that his church believes in and represents"....but he's still going to vote for him.

Wow...

[Albany Rifles]

Tantalus


Feels like an opportunity missed for sanders and biden to have placed out contrasting visions for a different society post covid.

They did have different views...and Bernie's view lost out to Joe's once mainstream Democrats started voting in elections beyond Iowa & New Hampshire.

And post-covid world....in February?!?!?

In February Covid was seen as an isolated outbreak, serious but not what it became because of a disastrous federal response.

And to DOR's response....if you have a Bush/McCain/Romney Republican in the White House there would have been a scientific based response to COVID. All believe in science and its practical applications. One of George W. Bush's positive legacies was his administrations hard work on the reduction and treatment of AIDS/HIV in Africa. They made some great contributions based on solid science.

[astralis]

^ yes, Bernie couldn't sell his vision/leadership to Dem primary supporters, let alone the general electorate.

and this is the -second- time he's gotten beat. everyone knows what Bernie stands for, and to the burning anger of the Bernie-bros, people are just not on-board.

things might be different if this was Mitt Romney and not Donald Trump that the Dems are trying to unseat, but if "ifs, ands, or buts" were candied nuts, we'd all be fat.

[DOR]

Tantalus


Feels like an opportunity missed for sanders and biden to have placed out contrasting visions for a different society post covid.

They did have different views...and Bernie's view lost out to Joe's once mainstream Democrats started voting in elections beyond Iowa & New Hampshire.

And post-covid world....in February?!?!?

In February Covid was seen as an isolated outbreak, serious but not what it became because of a disastrous federal response.

And to DOR's response....if you have a Bush/McCain/Romney Republican in the White House there would have been a scientific based response to COVID. All believe in science and its practical applications. One of George W. Bush's positive legacies was his administrations hard work on the reduction and treatment of AIDS/HIV in Africa. They made some great contributions based on solid science.

"sane, rational, competent, empathic, sympathetic, pro-science leadership..."

It isn't multiple choice; you don't get to choose "pro-science" and then conclude there's no difference among the various people being discussed.

[Albany Rifles]

"sane, rational, competent, empathic, sympathetic, pro-science leadership..."

It isn't multiple choice; you don't get to choose "pro-science" and then conclude there's no difference among the various people being discussed.

Not sure exactly what you are referring to here...are you disagreeing with me on the characterization of Bush/McCain/Romney? I may disagree with them on policies and execution of some programs but all three proved themselves as mainstream American politicians.

[snapper]

Never seen such a carnival of lies as this Trumpian worship RNC. I thought it said it all when they had no agenda but now they claim they have one - one that is all lies.

[Albany Rifles]

^^^^^^^^^
THIS all day!