Hypothetical Sino-Russian War

[Officer of Engineers]

If you are referencing the so called "Guard" divisions that do happen to have more modern equipment, keep in mind that they are a) not composed of kontraktnik professional soldiers, and b) are not as strong as they appear to be.

The strength of the Russian Army is

1) The ability to absorb casualties
2) The strength of the operational staff

Finally the decisive factor is that in the case of Grozny the Russian Army got the time to retreat, regroup, and then come again.

That's the mark of a professional army. One of the compliments the Russians had for the Chinese is "Iron Discipline." Don't know if it is a compliment but it does mean that the Chinese are incapable of abandoning a non-working plan. : (Edit at this point, the Chinese would not learn that their plan is unworkable until long after the fact).

In a war against the Chinese we are not likely to get such a chance, especially given the magnitude of the casualties the Russian Army is likely to take.

It's the reverse. The Chinese only got two corps that can go into Russia, the 38 and 39 Group Armies. The rest are stationed 100 miles back from the border and lack the logistics legs to go deep into Siberia. In fact, the 38 and 39 GA, by doctrine, will not go beyond 100 miles into Siberia.

So, do you think the odds are so much in China's favour now?

[astralis]

col yu,

The strength of the Russian Army is

1) The ability to absorb casualties

is that still true today?

[Officer of Engineers]

All I can point to is the 2nd Chechen War where a disastrous entry into Grozny did not derailed the battle plan.

[RedArmySurplus]

If China were to invade, Russia would quickly gain air superiority and bomb the hell out the the Chinese invaders, they could cut off their supplies an leave them standed in the snow, then Russian armour and infantry could come in and pick up the remains.

I probobly screwed something up, cos i dont know much about this.....

[Feanor]

Well ok if we really want to entertain this war on a strategic level, then who's the aggressor, because obviously the aggressor will have had time to mobilize most of his army and position it to attack. If the Chinese are the aggressor, which seems to be everyone's assumption, then they would obviously prepare most of their army for the offensive, rather then just 2 army groups.

And finally how loarge are those 2 army groups in terms of men, tanks, APC's, IFV, artillery, SPAAG's/SAM's, and how many full strength divisions, artillery, armored, motorized, mechanized, artillery, AA, and special forces, are in those battle groups. If you can get that info, I'll try to get the info on the Trans-baikal and Far-Eastern MD's of the modern day Russian Army.

[Garry]

One more reason why it would tough for Chinese or any other army to advance to Russia on far east is terrain and road/transportation infrustructure... Please look that this map

Because Russian Chinese border is devided into two by Mongolia it is clear that PLA would have to choose from two alternatives - attack in the western part of its border through Mongolia and/or Kazakhstan or attack on the eastern part of the border.... it is clear that first plan is simply stupid - they have no alternatives.... only eastern part.....

On eastern part PLA may hit one of teh three regions - Chita region on west, Khabarovsk region to north and Primorsk region to east.... The Russian territory engulfs Chinise hence this would be a gave where either PLA cuts Russian supply routes or Russia can cut PLA supply routes.... in absense of supply big army is a liability.....

When Russians were drawing maps there they did build in a lot of problems for Chinese to resume any attack... indeed, any army would face challenge advancing from such a positions.... please look the map!

[FiRepower]

Do you really think Russians wouldn't see that China is preparing to attack someone , especialy by gathering the troops near the Russian border?

China could get about 8000 Tanks and Armored Vehicles , and about 10000+ Artillery , from which most is outdate and not reliable , they could get about 7 million soldiers if they were preparing for a large scale war.
Their Airforce , i dont even wanna talk about their pilots they are just not well prepared and they dont have much experience and talent.
Russian air defence would destroy much of the planes before they even came close to attacking some strategic target in Russia ...
Russia could get about 25000 Tanks and Armored Vehicles and about 20000 Artillery and about 5000 Rocket launchers , most are outdate but same as China ,
Considering state of the art Russian air defences and much more flying hours the russian pilots are taking each year and the natural skills of their pilots , China's airforce doesnt stand a chance , Russian air force would get air superiority , then PLA would just be a sitting duck getting plumered by bombers and fighter bombers , russian ground forces with the support of airforce and armed helicopters would clean them very easly ..
Everything is against China here , the terrain , the air superiority , the capability and preparation of their armed forces ..

Now you can say whatever you want but Russian armed forces are more than capable of defending their home territory from China.

p.s- Feanor are u from China because you are seriusly overestimating their power , they are not even capable of developing advanced fighters , vessels etc. all of the best things they got are due to russian tehnology

[tphuang]

p.s- Feanor are u from China because you are seriusly overestimating their power , they are not even capable of developing advanced fighters , vessels etc. all of the best things they got are due to russian tehnology

hmm, J-10? 054A? 052C? 071?

[Garry]

Well... China is developing fast.... I think that China is 1.5 generations behind it matches Russian millitary industry and capabilities.... So in 20-25 years China may become a VERY serious millitary threat in conventional warfare to Russian Siberian territories.

It is important to note - THINGS CHANGE!!! Tomorrow's China is can not be even immagined.... look todays China is HUGE difference to itself 10 years ago...

ps. I am visiting China every 3-4 years as a tourist for couple of weeks

[Officer of Engineers]

Well ok if we really want to entertain this war on a strategic level, then who's the aggressor, because obviously the aggressor will have had time to mobilize most of his army and position it to attack. If the Chinese are the aggressor, which seems to be everyone's assumption, then they would obviously prepare most of their army for the offensive, rather then just 2 army groups.

By treaty, both countries are to restrict their military forces 100 miles from the border. During the 1979 Sino-Vietnam War, it took the Chinese 6 months to mobilize 200,000 troops. Within the same time frame, the Russians went from 2 regiments to a 100,000 man invasion force in the 2nd Chechen War.

And finally how loarge are those 2 army groups in terms of men, tanks, APC's, IFV, artillery, SPAAG's/SAM's, and how many full strength divisions, artillery, armored, motorized, mechanized, artillery, AA, and special forces, are in those battle groups. If you can get that info, I'll try to get the info on the Trans-baikal and Far-Eastern MD's of the modern day Russian Army.

www.China-Defense.com

There's only 3 Military Regions that can participate in any such conflict. They ae the LANZHOU, BEIJING, and SHENYANG Military Regions. It might be possible to drag CHENGDU into this but I doubt it as they will have to watch India.

[Gun Grape]

hmm, J-10? 054A? 052C? 071?

Don't all of those examples use foreign engines?

[gunnut]

Don't all of those examples use foreign engines?

Russian gas turbines?

And probably using hybrid Russian/French electronics suite.

[Feanor]

Ok lets get a few things straightened out.

I am NOT Chinese. Don't call me Chinese, I harbor no good feelings for China. At this rate Chinese illegal immigration will destroy my country and my culture. >.<

It does not matter whose technology the Chinese are using to produce their weapons, as long as their weapons are powerful enough.

OoE what stops the Chinese rfom mobilizing the Nanjing, Jinan, and Guangzhou MD's as well as calling in reservists, and creating new divisions from scratch?

Also OoE the page you gave me has no systematically organized summary of the numbers and half of the links on it come up with error messages, 404 Not Found etc.

Hmm when it comes to the Russian mobilization system, there you are right. It has been one of the fastest in the world for a while. (Since before WWI actually) I don't know how fast the Chinese would be able to mobilize, but if they started a slow build-up of troops over several years in preparation, they would be able to do it.

[Officer of Engineers]

OoE what stops the Chinese rfom mobilizing the Nanjing, Jinan, and Guangzhou MD's as well as calling in reservists, and creating new divisions from scratch?

I tend to view things with today's perspective instead of projecting unknown into the future. Thus, here's the question, how much warning does Moscow need to bring its forces up to strength?

Remember that both forces are required by treaty to stay 100 miles from the border. In order for either force to get ready to invade, they have to move close to the border and violate the treaty and giving the other side plenty of warning to get ready.

You can move the two top of the line corps and still have relatively deny Moscow much chance of getting ready. Any more than that and Moscow just might have the Guards Armies waiting for the Chinese.

Remember that the Chinese will have to cross another 100 miles into Siberia before meeting real resistance.

Also OoE the page you gave me has no systematically organized summary of the numbers and half of the links on it come up with error messages, 404 Not Found etc.

Really? I have no problems. I'll copy and paste the revellant info later on. I just had to rip out my bathtub and replace the drainpipe. #1 Daughter squeezed a tube of glue down the drain. My eyes and concentration are gone.

Hmm when it comes to the Russian mobilization system, there you are right. It has been one of the fastest in the world for a while. (Since before WWI actually) I don't know how fast the Chinese would be able to mobilize, but if they started a slow build-up of troops over several years in preparation, they would be able to do it.

That's too iffy for me. I like to use what is available today instead of guessing into the future.

[Feanor]

You're thinking of war that would start in a month at msot. I'm talking about a situation where the Chinese prepare properly by, first off creating tensions in say Inner Mongolia, and thus justify exiting out of that treaty, and having an excuse for stationing additional troops in the Beijing MD.

Then over several years building up their military and positioning it for an attack, as well as preparing supply lines, building airfields and railroad naetworks, bridges, etc. all close to the Sino-Russian border to allow for easier troop/supplies transport. Finally in the last month or so using the chinese special forces to start a "rebellion" in Inner Mongolia to justify the Chinese army actually openly marching, in force, into Inner Mngolia right next to the border, and only then quickly crossing the border to strike deep into Russia. Combined with armored pincers to cut off the south of the Russian Far-East, Vladivostok area, and a simultaneous strike by prepared mountain corps through the Altai region , to disrupt Russian communications and supply lines, most of southern Siberia could fall in very little time.

EDIT: Here's a few links that cover most of the Far-Eastern MD's capabilities.
FAR EAST MILITARY DISTRICT | Russian Arms, Military Technology, Analysis of Russia's Military Forces
Far Eastern Military District
Far East Military District