What are Ukraine's military options for regaining the Crimea?

[cdude]

This is a very interesting development viewed from East Asia as well.

Hillary spent 4 years in reset with Russia and pushing her "Pivot to Asia", aka containment of China policy. Now it looks like all wasted opportunities. The US probably cannot afford to confront two major powers in Russia and China at the same time. Strategically, the Clintons probably can still argue Asia is the future and containing China is more important, but realistically the democrat leadership cannot risk more losses in Europe given the new found confidence of Putin. In the past month, the old cold war hands / Russian hands are coming back with a force.

My money is on the new found love between US and China. Japan just today returned weapon grade nuclear waste to US. And the Phillipines being the dumbest kid on the block will be royally fucked. Meanwhile, Russia will sell more natural gas and crude to China on the cheap as there is no way China joins any form of embargo on Russia. Neither will India quit buying Russian toys. Being the lesser power on the map, I think the India US relationship will enter a cool down period.

End of the day, the biggest winner is probably the third power... China.

I just earned my 50 cents.

[Skywatcher]

This is a very interesting development viewed from East Asia as well.

Hillary spent 4 years in reset with Russia and pushing her "Pivot to Asia", aka containment of China policy. Now it looks like all wasted opportunities. The US probably cannot afford to confront two major powers in Russia and China at the same time. Strategically, the Clintons probably can still argue Asia is the future and containing China is more important, but realistically the democrat leadership cannot risk more losses in Europe given the new found confidence of Putin. In the past month, the old cold war hands / Russian hands are coming back with a force.

My money is on the new found love between US and China. Japan just today returned weapon grade nuclear waste to US. And the Phillipines being the dumbest kid on the block will be royally fucked. Meanwhile, Russia will sell more natural gas and crude to China on the cheap as there is no way China joins any form of embargo on Russia. Neither will India quit buying Russian toys. Being the lesser power on the map, I think the India US relationship will enter a cool down period.

End of the day, the biggest winner is probably the third power... China.

I just earned my 50 cents.

The Phillippines will be fine, they're the ones China is most likely to cut a deal with (not Vietnam, due to the whole Paracels business).

Taiwan is the one who's really in trouble (a lot of it of their own making, certainly).

[DonBelt]

Is it surprising that after Snowden and Manning spilling the beans about how and what information that we (the US and other Western nations) collect that the Russians would shy away from their usual methods of communication? Even Jimmy Carter now uses snail mail. (Carter criticizes drone use, domestic spying under Obama | Fox News) Other nations and companies have turned away from using certain American data and email systems due to what Snowden and Co. revealed about their vulnerabilities and cooperation with the NSA. The Russians probably used written communications and messengers. The one group that may make out here is the US Postal Service. I don't doubt that has been intercepted before, but that is a far more labor intensive activity that needs to be targeted at something specific.

[Officer of Engineers]

I just earned my 50 cents.

All that work and you still can't buy a cup of coffee.

[JAD_333]

Rajan Menon, Spitzer Professor of Political Science, Colin Powell School, City College of New York/City University of New York; Non Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council, wrote back on March 1 an article that raises some of the practical problems Putin would face were he to make a move to grab east Ukraine.


But the real question is what will happen after [Crimea] and where?

Will Putin make a parallel move in Ukraine's east -- the Donbass as it's called -- which has many more ethnic Russians (though they are not a majority) than do central and western Ukraine?

The Donbass is a much bigger place, in area and population, than is Crimea. Sending ground troops, doubtless following requests for "assistance" from pro-Russian groups, will be a much bigger gamble and could require a long-term occupation amidst resistance from anti-Russian forces. Not all people in the Donbass favor alignment with Russia. Millions of Ukrainians -- and Russians -- who don't want their country truncated also live there.

Putin already has a stubborn insurgency to handle in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region. Does he want to risk another in the Donbass?

Even if he prevails in the Donbass, what will be the costs of an occupation? I don't mean blood and treasure alone but also the damage to Russia's relationship with the US and Europe.

It could be said that Putin doesn't give a damn about the West. Perhaps that's so.

But there are good reasons for him not to burn Russia's bridges with the West. One is that an ascendant China lies across Russia's vast southern frontier. For now, Moscow and Beijing are now aligned in a "strategic partnership." But Russian strategists are increasingly worried that if Russia writes off the West it risks living under China's shadow and, in time, becoming Beijing's satellite. That's not a future Russians relish. What Does Putin Want in Ukraine?*|*Rajan Menon

[Goatboy]

Hopefully Putin's corrupt oligarch constituency will feel enough of a sting in their wallets to ward Putin off the Donbass region. And with the ruble sliding, the stock market crashing and many economists saying Russia could slide into recession (hopefully) as a result from Western financial pressure, maybe he'll blink? It's good to know that Russia's highly vulnerable to even limited Western financial pressure. But then again, maybe Putin doesn't give a rats ass about what the West does -- a sobering prospect.

[MrSecond]

Aren't you tired of moralizing about evil Putin and Russia which is going to hell and poverty because of Western "sanctions" and bla-bla-bla?.. That's just funny to hear all this saint bs from people whose government (governments) killed thousands of Serbs, Lybians, Iraqies, Afghanies because of.... because of what?..

[Goatboy]

Speaking of Western financial pressure, I just now saw the good news. Russia has been booted from the G8.

U.S., other powers kick Russia out of G8 - CNN.com

[Goatboy]

Aren't you tired of moralizing about evil Putin and Russia which is going to hell and poverty because of Western "sanctions" and bla-bla-bla?.. That's just funny to hear all this saint bs from people whose government (governments) killed thousands of Serbs, Lybians, Iraqies, Afghanies because of.... because of what?..

Am I getting tired? No, I'm just getting started. When the United States goes around staging Kalashnikov elections in foreign territories with the intent of annexing said territories, then your position would have merit. Until then, it's all straw man.

[cdude]

Speaking of Western financial pressure, I just now saw the good news. Russia has been booted from the G8.

U.S., other powers kick Russia out of G8 - CNN.com

G8 or G7 was something 10 years ago, but in 2014? Seriously, this just gives more power to the BRICS. This Chinaman welcomes the new almost useless G7 and embrace the our new overlord, G20.

[cyppok]

Rajan Menon, Spitzer Professor of Political Science, Colin Powell School, City College of New York/City University of New York; Non Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council, wrote back on March 1 an article that raises some of the practical problems Putin would face were he to make a move to grab east Ukraine.


But the real question is what will happen after [Crimea] and where?

Will Putin make a parallel move in Ukraine's east -- the Donbass as it's called -- which has many more ethnic Russians (though they are not a majority) than do central and western Ukraine?

The Donbass is a much bigger place, in area and population, than is Crimea. Sending ground troops, doubtless following requests for "assistance" from pro-Russian groups, will be a much bigger gamble and could require a long-term occupation amidst resistance from anti-Russian forces. Not all people in the Donbass favor alignment with Russia. Millions of Ukrainians -- and Russians -- who don't want their country truncated also live there.

Putin already has a stubborn insurgency to handle in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region. Does he want to risk another in the Donbass?

Even if he prevails in the Donbass, what will be the costs of an occupation? I don't mean blood and treasure alone but also the damage to Russia's relationship with the US and Europe.

It could be said that Putin doesn't give a damn about the West. Perhaps that's so.

But there are good reasons for him not to burn Russia's bridges with the West. One is that an ascendant China lies across Russia's vast southern frontier. For now, Moscow and Beijing are now aligned in a "strategic partnership." But Russian strategists are increasingly worried that if Russia writes off the West it risks living under China's shadow and, in time, becoming Beijing's satellite. That's not a future Russians relish. What Does Putin Want in Ukraine?*|*Rajan Menon

What happens if South-East separates by itself? into another republic or tries to secede into Russia? because that is where it is going.
The mistake people make is that this is about ethnicity that is false, the whole thing is about identity and outlook. The south-east Russian/Ukranian Russian-speaker/Ukrainian-speaker etc... have an outlook on life, history, and identity different than the one proposed from Kiev. The more they are forced by Kiev to eat it* in the philosophical sense the more likely the split. You cannot make someone's enemies their heroes and then try to erase their history pretending it is for their own good as they outcry for some sort of voice. All those statues (Lenins but more importantly the WW2 soldier memorials, the various generals that founded cities in Ukraine) history books, language rights and school programs, and the general treatment of people with equality is non-existent. It hasn't existed for twenty years it was in soft format, now it became hard, 'we will tell you what to believe' format. It is backfiring in a major way.

The power shift will occur when South-East leaves all those puppets in Kiev will be de-funded, and the likely outcome is grass roots and natural forces will have a backlash against the ideology that brought losses on every arena possible. That is why I can see someone taking power and becoming Lukashenko #2. All those debts will be defaulted upon and it will all end in a giant wipe-out of both foreign influence and domestic equity. A country has to have an 'agrarian foundation' in the words of founding fathers, and Ukraine simply did not develop nor live within those means, it took every opportunity to borrow, spend, and exhaust all that it could because political princes wanted to get as much capital into their chests as possible. This concerns all of them from Yuschenko to Yanukovich, to Timoshenko etc... You still can't buy agricultural land unless you are connected somehow to either district heads (local aristocracy) no land reform for the rank and file person. Just the politics of exclusion.

I do not believe in China for financial leverage aspects that they have going on internally but that is another matter.

[Goatboy]

G8 or G7 was something 10 years ago, but in 2014? Seriously, this just gives more power to the BRICS. This Chinaman welcomes the new almost useless G7 and embrace the our new overlord, G20.

It's true that most stuff is decided in the G20 now, but expelling Russia from the G8 is very symbolic. As a slap to Putin, it's useful. At the very least it demonstrates that the G7 are speaking with one voice.

China the new overlord? The collective economic heft of the G7 says otherwise.

[MrSecond]

Am I getting tired? No, I'm just getting started. When the United States goes around staging Kalashnikov elections in foreign territories with the intent of annexing said territories, then your position would have merit. Until then, it's all straw man.

Kalashnikov elections? Ha-ha! I've heard this thing from the NATO head... Rasmussen or somebody like this...
I wonder what is the kind of insane imagination makes him to think Russia needs Kalashnikovs to make Russians vote for Russia???

[MrSecond]

It's true that most stuff is decided in the G20 now, but expelling Russia from the G8 is very symbolic. As a slap to Putin, it's useful. At the very least it demonstrates that the G7 are speaking with one voice.

Oh, my god, I'm sure Putin is crying somewhere in a dark corner in Kremlin right now....
As far as I remember in 2012 Putin didn't come for summit of G8 in Chicago. And what?

[Goatboy]

Kalashnikov elections? Ha-ha! I've heard this thing from the NATO head... Rasmussen or somebody like this...
I wonder what is the kind of insane imagination makes him to think Russia needs Kalashnikovs to make Russians vote for Russia???

The Kalashnikovs weren't to encourage Russians to vote, they were to rip Crimea away from Ukraine by force and annex it.

Oh, my god, I'm sure Putin is crying somewhere in a dark corner in Kremlin right now....
As far as I remember in 2012 Putin didn't come for summit of G8 in Chicago. And what?

I'm sure he isn't crying. He's a tough guy, especially with his shirt off. But maybe his oligarch cronies aren't smiling.