What are Ukraine's military options for regaining the Crimea?

[Doktor]

Do you suppose Russia will issue a declaration of war if it intends to invade the Ukraine?

Why yes? Declaration of war - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Officer of Engineers]

Understand. But there are different types of declarations of war, not all of which are absolute. A conditional declaration, for example, is tied to a set of grievances which the declaring nation wants remedied. Let's say Russia begins making armed incursions into eastern Ukraine. The Ukraine would have a grievance and could act to remedy it.

You're counting on the enemy not to escalate to her full might. Not a smart strategy.

Do you suppose Russia will issue a declaration of war if it intends to invade the Ukraine?

Don't know. Full scale wars have been fought without declaration but why give the other guy the excuse to escalate? A Russian incursion can be fought off by self defence rights alone.

[cyppok]

Interesting aspect people ignore.

If Right Sector goes vs Cops in Ukraine you essentially begin to have an internal gov't conflict.

Why? Because MVD(cops internal militia) minister is ByUT
But right sector controls the ministries of army and more or less has access to arms storage indirectly of-course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...cil_of_Ukraine
Parubiy and SBU head Nalyvaichenko more or less organized and control 'Right Sector'

Theoretically they could throw the movement under the bus but they have to get something in return and thus far I see nothing, except a power struggle. Especially since Right sector decided to do a call to arms after Sashko was deadified.
One of the interesting aspects is that the Attorney General is from Svoboda so they couldn't charge Sashko and thus went after him illegally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabine...ers_of_Ukraine

Right now my sense is there is bargaining going on.

There was a shift in cops(militia) movement a lot of it was moved South-East to help with the protestors for self-determination. Considering that deployment it is likely that in some sense it will be harder to contain any discontent elsewhere.

Another factor people have to consider is that since the money ran out (budget wise) and the country is running on air. What happens when you can't pay those militia? and the only ones willing to enforce or force others to do their bidding are right wing nationalist ideologues? Because that is a major possibility one that almost everyone is overlooking. If it gets to that point what we have now is organization par excellance.

В ЕПУ отметили положительный момент в недофинан�ировании украин�кой армии | �ово�ти политики | РБК-Украина
people helping army with diesel for training and wood to warm up huts.

[btw those tanks that blew up, it happened because the electrical wiring, insulation rotted through, went on fire]

[JAD_333]

You're counting on the enemy not to escalate to her full might. Not a smart strategy.

No. I am exploring the issue. Ukraine has already stated that it views Russia's actions as acts of war.

Don't know. Full scale wars have been fought without declaration but why give the other guy the excuse to escalate?

Good point. Even though no one would think Ukraine was acting other than to defend itself, declaring war on Russia might have the wrong effect, e.g., once Ukraine threw down the gauntlet, Russia might accept the challenge so as not to appear to back down.

A Russian incursion can be fought off by self defence rights alone.

So, you would agree that Ukraine is right to mobilize what forces it has and take up defensive positions?


Off-topic: Will Russia return Ukrainian naval and military assets (other than bases) seized in Crimea? They were not spoils of war. It seems to me keeping them amounts to theft.

[drhuy]

Aren't you tired of moralizing about evil Putin and Russia which is going to hell and poverty because of Western "sanctions" and bla-bla-bla?.. That's just funny to hear all this saint bs from people whose government (governments) killed thousands of Serbs, Lybians, Iraqies, Afghanies because of.... because of what?..

butt-hurt much? ts funny coz you're the one who are relentlessly advancing the idea that the new Ukraine gov are full of thugs, neo-nazis blah blah blah even though there's no place on earth has more neo-nazis than in Russia. But when somebody else do the same, then you act like you're a helpless misunderstood school boy.

[snapper]

Instead of conjecture try the polls! Á³ëüø³ñòü óêðà¿íö³â ãîòîâ³ çì³íþâàòè ðîçêëàä ñèë â Ðàä³ | Óêðà¿íñüêà ïðàâäà

According to data from a survey conducted by SOCIS, KIIS, Rating, and Rozumkov Centre, 65.8% of Ukrainians favor the holding of early parliamentary elections.

65.8% of respondents are for early parliamentary elections, 17.5 % – against it, 16.7 % – are undecided.

81.7% Ukrainians are willing to participate in such elections.

According to political affiliation among the parties, the electoral orientation Ukrainian is divided as follows:

Batkivschyna, headed by Tymoshenko receives 15% support;
Solidarnist led by Poroshenko – 14.8%;
UDAR led by Klytschko – 11.3%;
Party of Regions – 10.5%;
Communist Party – 4.9%;
Radical Party of Liashko – 3.9%;
Svoboda – 3.5%.

The survey was held on March 14-19, 2014 among adults. A representative quota sample of 6200 respondents (1550 respondents in each sociological center) in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of Crimea).

Poroshenko is top of polls for President, Klytschko second and Tymoshenko third. These fascists seem to be hiding.

[Officer of Engineers]

No. I am exploring the issue. Ukraine has already stated that it views Russia's actions as acts of war.

But they're contained. Do recall that there were 150,000 troops doing live fire exercises across the border. If things went south, they would have came in with guns blazing.

So, you would agree that Ukraine is right to mobilize what forces it has and take up defensive positions?

They would idiots not to. Things must now do go south if Kyev is to maintain some legitimacy.

Off-topic: Will Russia return Ukrainian naval and military assets (other than bases) seized in Crimea? They were not spoils of war. It seems to me keeping them amounts to theft.

I would return them. Why would the Russians want even by their standards, obsolete junk?

[MrSecond]

Ukraine should declare that a state of war exists with Russia, in the opinion of a leading expert on Ukrainian-Russian issues. With remarkably tight reasoning, James Sherr, 'a fellow at the Russian and Eurasian program at London-based think tank Chatham House and a Western analyst on security issues in Ukraine and Russia.' lays out his case. Of course, he doesn't expect the Ukraine to venture beyond its borders to attack Russian forces. His central argument is that Ukraine must show that it's prepared to stand up for itself and then the west will do more to aid it. For that reason, he believes praise for Ukraine's restraint up to now is counterproductive. He asks, "Where will Putin stop? The answer is simple: when he achieves his objectives or when he is prevented from achieving them."

The article is long, but well worth reading.


James Sherr: It is time we stopped praising Ukraine for

I agree, the article is worth reading. This guy is not Russia's fan, to put it mildly, but I like he's operating by a lot of facts, unlike most of western journalists who prefer to waste words for blaming Russia of breaking "international law" and discuss some empty issues like whether some country recognizes Crimean referendum or it doesn't. I'd say Sherr is quite well informed even though I don't agree with his conclusions.

[cyppok]

Instead of conjecture try the polls!

Right-Sector is storming the Rada demanding MVD Minister be changed (Avakov)...

This was the only post (out of Army, Prosecutor, SBU) that was not under control by the more right wing.
Ukraine's 'Freedom-Seeking' Nationalists Protest Government Building, Ministers Evacuated | Zero Hedge

*UKRAINE NATIONALIST PRAVYI SEKTOR PROTESTS AT PARLIAMENT: TV5
*UKRAINIAN PROTESTERS DEMAND INTERIOR MINISTER'S RESIGNATION
*UKRAINE LAWMAKERS EVACUATED FROM PARLIAMENT BUILDING: TV5

I don't think they get to elections. (notice the Parliament isn't having them only pres)

They also didn't pass budget amendments needed for IMF loans.

I am wondering why right wing wants all key power posts. At that point they could take power by force and RADA can simply vote the way they want.

[MrSecond]

Interesting video

Occupation of Ukrainian Naval base in Novo'ozernoye, Crimea.

After the Russian soldiers came into the territory of the base, several Russian Navy officers talked to Ukrainian militaries, explained them that they may stay in the base, they may come in and come out. Nobody is going to get you out, they say. They promise after special officers arrive the Ukrainians may take a decision whether to serve for Russia or Ukraine. The only thing we want now - to take over control of arms and "secret room". Russian soldiers stay in the gates and outside. Keep service and good by, for a while. Shaking hands. Then the Russian officers return to crowd, they ask people to not come into the base.

[Noitartst]

Nothing can be done militarily to return Crimea save a naval blockade, and that's not happening. Deterring Putin from taking Eastern Ukraine, though, is managable, though I don't think we're forceful enough, here. Beyond Ukraine, the most likeliest flashoints are in Belarus, and Moldova; we need to be prepared, there.

Been blogging about this crisis, here:
noitartst.com

[Officer of Engineers]

Say what you want to say here. We ain't interested in going to your blog. Damned rude of you keep pushing it on us.

[snapper]

Right-Sector is storming the Rada demanding MVD Minister be changed (Avakov)...

This was the only post (out of Army, Prosecutor, SBU) that was not under control by the more right wing.
Ukraine's 'Freedom-Seeking' Nationalists Protest Government Building, Ministers Evacuated | Zero Hedge


I don't think they get to elections. (notice the Parliament isn't having them only pres)

They also didn't pass budget amendments needed for IMF loans.

I am wondering why right wing wants all key power posts. At that point they could take power by force and RADA can simply vote the way they want.

Storming the Rada? Your imagination is over active! Yea there was a small demonstration outside the Rada about Avakov. Not illegal in Kyiv unlike in Moscow. As the 'key posts' are you speaking of President or Prime Minister? Don't see them getting either in elections. The only possible reason that the elections won't go ahead will be in case of a Russian invasion.

[JAD_333]

Nothing can be done militarily to return Crimea save a naval blockade, and that's not happening. Deterring Putin from taking Eastern Ukraine, though, is managable, though I don't think we're forceful enough, here. Beyond Ukraine, the most likeliest flashoints are in Belarus, and Moldova; we need to be prepared, there.

Been blogging about this crisis, here:
noitartst.com

I'll repeat what I told you in another thread. No more plugs for your blog, please. That's 7 already.

[Doktor]

...

Occupation of Ukrainian Naval base in Novo'ozernoye, Crimea.

After the Russian soldiers came into the territory of the base, several Russian Navy officers talked to Ukrainian militaries, explained them that they may stay in the base, they may come in and come out. Nobody is going to get you out, they say. They promise after special officers arrive the Ukrainians may take a decision whether to serve for Russia or Ukraine. The only thing we want now - to take over control of arms and "secret room". Russian soldiers stay in the gates and outside. Keep service and good by, for a while. Shaking hands. Then the Russian officers return to crowd, they ask people to not come into the base.

That doesn't make much sense. You can stay till... our special officers come but we want the secret room now...

Can you translate it?