What are Ukraine's military options for regaining the Crimea?

[Blademaster]

Yep, Russia started revolts to topple the President of Ukraine in order to snatch Crimea. Mhmm...

I don't believe it either. But it is about managing perceptions and the perception is that Russia is the bad guy right now because it did a land grab during a time of turmoil.

[Officer of Engineers]

Russia lost friends or neutral countries and gained enemies. That, to me, is tactically brilliant but strategically blunder. Russia could have gotten Crimea back without making rest of Ukraine enemy simply by letting a civil war happen and Crimea could break away and showing to western Ukraine that their coup was a costly mistake and that the western Ukrainians were the one that caused it to happen and the rest of the world would have agreed with it. But now everybody think that Russia was behind the whole thing and puts the blame entirely on Russia. Now they are suspicious of Russia and do not trust Russia anymore and instead of making the world a multipolar world, Russia just succeeded in reaffirming US as the global leader that most countries will unite behind and making the world a uni-polar world which Russia wanted to avoid at all costs.

A costly civil war that would have lead to 1000s of dead, 100s of 1000s homeless, plummet the economies of all the neighbouring countries that may or may not end up with a Russian Crimea but a Ukrainian one. Both Georgia and the Ukraines will get their NATO membership.

Vis-a-vi this bloodless takeover. I don't see the bad side.

[Deltacamelately]

A costly civil war that would have lead to 1000s of dead, 100s of 1000s homeless, plummet the economies of all the neighbouring countries that may or may not end up with a Russian Crimea but a Ukrainian one. Both Georgia and the Ukraines will get their NATO membership.

Vis-a-vi this bloodless takeover. I don't see the bad side.

Sir,

Me too think that Hitesh is getting this right. Russia for whatever tactical gains in the interim, is getting dangerously close, to being boxed in her entire western, southern and south-eastern flanks. I am woefully not getting to understand Putin's genius in all this.

[Bigfella]

Sir,

Me too think that Hitesh is getting this right. Russia for whatever tactical gains in the interim, is getting dangerously close, to being boxed in her entire western, southern and south-eastern flanks. I am woefully not getting to understand Putin's genius in all this.

My bet is that Putin has already convinced himself that the world is as hostile as he is making it, so he figures he has nothing to lose. Self-fulfilling prophecy - act in a manner that makes everyone distrust you & then scream "see, I told you they always distrusted me". The real question now is just what Europe & the US are prepared to do & for how long. he may also be betting on a lack of resolve to make Russia pay in the longer term. He may or may not be right on this one. Too soon to know.

[1979]

This one Western Military District - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia They knew precisely what was going inside those units.The best of the UA,the Marines,walked disarmed in their own barracks,while the Russian Marines stood armed by them.Absent the friendly chats,it could have been a prison camp.

From the first hour of the operation,the Russians were able to block and defeat every Ukrainian unit on a 1 vs 3 basis.That is a Russian company could have kept a UA btn in place.

The op reeked of everything except caution.

Too many prison camps too few companies, you might see it as a great succes, i see it a huge improvisation that succed for sher dumb luck and the fact the ukrainians were abandoded by their own leadership.

[Doktor]

Too many prison camps too few companies, you might see it as a great succes, i see it a huge improvisation that succed for sher dumb luck and the fact the ukrainians were abandoded by their own leadership.

Both sides know each other too well for this to been improvised. Russians knew this will unfold this way.

Why they didn't play similar scenario years ago in Georgia?

[Mihais]

Too many prison camps too few companies, you might see it as a great succes, i see it a huge improvisation that succed for sher dumb luck and the fact the ukrainians were abandoded by their own leadership.

2 UA btn's and a SOF detachment.The Russians had 3 bde's +spetsnaz in day one.

To see such an op going on is not to see an improvisation.And if this is how a Russian improvisation looks like...

[Doktor]

2 UA btn's and a SOF detachment.The Russians had 3 bde's +spetsnaz in day one.

To see such an op going on is not to see an improvisation.And if this is how a Russian improvisation looks like...

Where you 'saw' those numbers? Especially Spetsnaz? I hope it's open source ;)

[Mihais]

Where you 'saw' those numbers? Especially Spetsnaz? I hope it's open source ;)

In this age and time a lot is open source.
You just need to know what you're looking at.:)

[Doktor]

In this age and time a lot is open source.
You just need to know what you're looking at.:)

Officially there are no Russian troops on the ground.

[Blademaster]

A costly civil war that would have lead to 1000s of dead, 100s of 1000s homeless, plummet the economies of all the neighbouring countries that may or may not end up with a Russian Crimea but a Ukrainian one. Both Georgia and the Ukraines will get their NATO membership.

Vis-a-vi this bloodless takeover. I don't see the bad side.

Russia doesn't have to let it go too far. Russia could manage it just enough for the world to see Russian intervention as a good thing and necessary just as the world saw Russian intervention in Syria and persuading Syria to dismantle its chemical weapons stockpile as a good thing because it meant that western powers didn't have to intervene in and Israel would be much safer. Putin managed the threat perception profile in Syria quite brilliantly, i.e., he came off as the good guy.

[Doktor]

Russia doesn't have to let it go too far. Russia could manage it just enough for the world to see Russian intervention as a good thing and necessary just as the world saw Russian intervention in Syria and persuading Syria to dismantle its chemical weapons stockpile as a good thing because it meant that western powers didn't have to intervene in and Israel would be much safer. Putin managed the threat perception profile in Syria quite brilliantly, i.e., he came off as the good guy.

The reality on the ground is this. If it is ignored, many people will get killed and displaced. A lot more then in Bosnia and Kosovo combined.

A friend of mine went into CT why Putin is doing this and I asked him what Lewinsky is he hiding in the closet? Still no answer.

[Officer of Engineers]

Me too think that Hitesh is getting this right. Russia for whatever tactical gains in the interim, is getting dangerously close, to being boxed in her entire western, southern and south-eastern flanks. I am woefully not getting to understand Putin's genius in all this.

Colonel, he's boxed in regardless. Georgia is going to get her NATO membership. The Ukraines will follow being the better prize of the two. With Crimea, he at least can nullify Ukrainian NATO membership.

Russia doesn't have to let it go too far. Russia could manage it just enough for the world to see Russian intervention as a good thing and necessary just as the world saw Russian intervention in Syria and persuading Syria to dismantle its chemical weapons stockpile as a good thing because it meant that western powers didn't have to intervene in and Israel would be much safer. Putin managed the threat perception profile in Syria quite brilliantly, i.e., he came off as the good guy.

And how is Syria going for Putin? His guy, despite an additional Hezbollah army with Iranian Officers and Russian weapons is just hanging on by his finger nails.

The Syrian Civil War is hardly manageable by any definition. A Ukrainian Civil War will be far worst. The Russians managed a bloodless takeover. I will guarrantee you that would not be the case once the Ukrainians get their bloodlust up. The Russians did pretty well in Georgia but there is no guarrantee that a Ukrainian brigade will not put the hurt to a Russian intervention force. In a Ukrainian Civil War, brother will be killing brother. They will not hesitate to kill outside Russians.

[Doktor]

Colonel, he's boxed in regardless. Georgia is going to get her NATO membership. The Ukraines will follow being the better prize of the two. With Crimea, he at least can nullify Ukrainian NATO membership.

There goes the promise to Gorbachev for not spreading NATO around Russia.

[Officer of Engineers]

Too many prison camps too few companies, you might see it as a great succes, i see it a huge improvisation that succed for sher dumb luck and the fact the ukrainians were abandoded by their own leadership.

A lot of luck, yes, but not improvisation. The Russians knew exactly who to take out and who to bottle up.