2020 US/Iranian Crisis

[Double Edge]

No one is yet chanting "Death to the US" on Iranian Streets.

Reduces pressure on the Iranian regime for a quick response and gives them room to manouever

[Double Edge]

Whatever damage Stalin had done has long been ecilipsed by other events that soured Russian-KSA relationship.

But things were going well up to that point. That Soviet envoy built a good rapport with the Saudi leader over the course of a decade. The Soviets had an in right at the start.

But after Stalin decided to be well Stalin then all was lost. After that things could only go downhill

[Double Edge]

Again, We are not discussing the formality, but the reality of situation. There have been multiple accusations that the war is going on for long time through proxies. Trump has decided to turn it into a direct military conflict. The already started transportation of American forces because of this motion is visible through the media. And again, the point is not about current intensity, but of what is coming over, after triggering of the announced plans for rocket strikes against Iranian assets on Iranian territory

The Iraqi protests among other concerns were also against Iranian influence. This worried the Iranians that they could lose the ability to influence who would be the next Iraqi PM

They started to pick on the Americans soon after

There was no war between the US & Iran in Iraq. It was mostly tactical.

[Officer of Engineers]

Again, We are not discussing the formality, but the reality of situation. There have been multiple accusations that the war is going on for long time through proxies. Trump has decided to turn it into a direct military conflict.

And again, no State of War exists between the two countries no matter how you want to word it. There is conflict, even hostile conflict but it is not war. Neither side is bringing to bear anything resembling their full military might.

There is a proxy war. The full might of the proxies are brought to bear but that does not mean there is war between the two supporting powers.

The already started transportation of American forces because of this motion is visible through the media.

Re-enforcements are not by themselves Acts of War

And again, the point is not about current intensity, but of what is coming over, after triggering of the announced plans for rocket strikes against Iranian assets on Iranian territory

You don't know what is going to happen and neither does anyone else, including Iran.

[Officer of Engineers]

Reduces pressure on the Iranian regime for a quick response and gives them room to manouever

2019 street riots up into Dec before Tehran cracked down. Tehran does not trust her own people not to turn an anti-American protest into an anti-government protest. In short, the people and the government are not united in this matter even if, not known at this point, they do share the same view.

[Double Edge]

Only Iraqi government forces, read NATO SOF, were able to co-ordinate with Coalition airpower in Isolation and Reduction actions.

How effective were they at defeating IS compared to Iran's militias in Syria & Iraq?

Comment i heard was Solemaini's militias did the bulk of the fighting. There are counters to this though, why should Iraq invite the US back in 2014 if Iran was enough. Why didn't Iran get Baghdadi first.

I've not studied these battles in detail.

You have many players here, Iran's militas, Iraq, Kurds, US and Russians

Assad's future became assured once the Russians jumped in by 2015

Finishing off IS required joint efforts from all.

[TopHatter]

Hu....Talk by people who were defending Nagasaki and Hiroshima which did not even discriminate between 'blade of grass' and a 'lawnmower' but killed everything; a few years back on this very forum.

Ah the usual deflection and whataboutism. Gotta defend Trump somehow though, right?

Cultural site or not the message of deterrence using counter value strike has been conveyed. I do not see if there can be any distinction made if the warning given is of a counter strike or counter value significance.

That jumble of bullshit doesn't making the slightest bit of sense.

Last time Bush warned Sadam Hussain of Nuclear strikes and I know for sure Iraq has many cultural sites.

If I recall correctly, he warned Hussein not to use WMD's against Coalition troops, otherwise there would be a response in kind. I don't recall Bush saying he would nuke Iraq cultural sites.

Your pointing out that Iraq has many cultural sites is just another bullshit non sequitur

[Double Edge]

The opposition has decided that Trump is endangering the country and its people so they're going to try an limit his war powers to 30 days

Pelosi: House to vote on resolution limiting Trump's actions against Iran | The Hill | Jan 06 2019

Pelosi told Democratic members in a letter that the House will introduce a vote on a “War Powers Resolution” mandating that the administration's military hostilities with regard to Iran would cease within 30 days if no further congressional action is taken.

They also want him to declassify the kill order

Top Democrats ask Trump to declassify war powers notification | The Hill | Jan 06 2019

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bob Menendez (N.J.), the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, are urging President Trump to immediately declassify the war powers notification he submitted to Congress following the U.S. drone strike that killed Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani.

In letter on Sunday, the senators asked the president to “immediately declassify in full the January 4, 2020 war powers notification you submitted to Congress following the U.S. military operation targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.”

“It is critical that national security matters of such import be shared with the American people in a timely manner,” the Democrats added.

“An entirely classified notification is simply not appropriate in a democratic society, and there appears to be no legitimate justification for classifying this notification.”

This one i'm not sure he will do

[Double Edge]

Let's get some perspective here. Iran WILL LIMIT her retalliation. She WILL NOT DARE to go to war against the US. She will most likely inflict casualties but the numbers will be in the low tens. If she even try a Riyadh Compound, it will be war. Tehran knows it. Not only will Trump promise it, the American People will demand it. American restraint since 11 Sept is long gone. The thing Tehran CANNOT afford is to piss off the American people.

I have absolutely no doubt the Iranians will retalliate but they are not as foolish as to piss off the American People.

It will take a lot to piss them off. Americans have no appetite for a fight with Iran. Fair to say this has been a constant since a decade.

Iran has been exploiting this unwillingness. American deterrence was weakening and it had to be set right.

Now how does Iran interpret this latest move by the Democrats presuming it is successful ?

A way to defuse the situation or an invitation to kill some Americans so long as the number is not too high

Trump anticipated this and that is why we have the 52 sites tweet

[Officer of Engineers]

The opposition has decided that Trump is endangering the country and its people so they're going to try an limit his war powers to 30 days

Pelosi: House to vote on resolution limiting Trump's actions against Iran | The Hill | Jan 06 2019

No President has ever viewed the War Powers Act as Constitutional. I don't think Trump will be the one to start ... for obvious reasons.

[Officer of Engineers]

How effective were they at defeating IS compared to Iran's militias in Syria & Iraq?

Comment i heard was Solemaini's militias did the bulk of the fighting. There are counters to this though, why should Iraq invite the US back in 2014 if Iran was enough. Why didn't Iran get Baghdadi first.

I've not studied these battles in detail.

You have many players here, Iran's militas, Iraq, Kurds, US and Russians

Assad's future became assured once the Russians jumped in by 2015

Finishing off IS required joint efforts from all.

Bulk of the fighting. Yeah, they did that all right. I called most of the battles skirmishes. When you have a single bn of 300 ISIL light infantry taking and holding a city, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that no one had a clue to anything bigger, including the Iraqi Army and the Qud. 7000 NATO SF was guiding NATO planes to bomb trucks. TRUCKS. Not even Technicals. Speaking of which, ISIL and Qud qualifies Technicals as Armour. Techincals!

In all honesty, one single NATO division could have swepted the entire lot off the face of the earth. What comes after would be the problem but nothing that was presented would have scared me off the battlefield.

[tbm3fan]

I'll think I'll just sit back to watch and wait for the other shoe to fall off since this whole event is going to move onto improvisation by the actors...

[snapper]

Hu....Talk by people who were defending Nagasaki and Hiroshima which did not even discriminate between 'blade of grass' and a 'lawnmower' but killed everything; a few years back on this very forum.

Cultural site or not the message of deterrence using counter value strike has been conveyed. I do not see if there can be any distinction made if the warning given is of a counter strike or counter value significance. Last time Bush warned Sadam Hussain of Nuclear strikes and I know for sure Iraq has many cultural sites.

So MAGA means bringing the US to the same level as the Taliban and ISIS.

[m a x]

... Neither side is bringing to bear anything resembling their full military might.
...

On the contrary. Both sides have already started to show they are preparing for the worst case scenario. There were reports of Iranian rocket forces taking position on a full combat readiness to response massively at maximum to potential strike over their territory. Trump himself declared he is employing most advanced weaponry, the USA has just payed for to acquire. So, You expect the „Pentagon“ would try to save from resources, after tit-for-tat process is initiated, really /?/

...
You don't know what is going to happen and neither does anyone else, including Iran.

Not exactly, in terms of expectations along the possible scenarios. We know from the past, par example, that it is never what the Americans promise to be, quick, precise, without complications, for a period of time. All around where the USA „Pentagon“' has intervened there are endless wars with novel developments, stages and actors, humanitarian catastrophes, massive refuge waves etc. As a matter of fact the World is now facing beginning of this N E W W A R as a result of the previous "decisive" actions. Does anybody really believe it has not been predictable at first place? That they are so stupid indeed to not see and tell their President what is come to happen if he unleashes the rocket strikes

[Double Edge]

No President has ever viewed the War Powers Act as Constitutional. I don't think Trump will be the one to start ... for obvious reasons.

..because it is a violation of the separation of powers and the president's authority as commander in chief

Why The War Powers Act Doesn't Work | NPR | Jun 16 2011

Could not keep Obama out of Libya and won't work here either. Can go back even further with Clinton

In 2000, the Supreme Court turned back a challenge brought by a group of 31 members of Congress who complained that U.S. participation in a bombing campaign in Yugoslavia violated the act.

So Trump will have his 60 days with 30 day extension if necessary

the 1973 law has become a "political tool that allows members of Congress to dodge taking a position on the intervention itself. As is often the case, they argue the process rather than the substance."

Bah! just politics : |