Originally posted by tbm3fan
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2020 US/Iranian Crisis
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Originally posted by anil View PostThe US(and its allies) knows that it cannot repell an oil embargo impossed by the shias. In the far east, fat boy has enough missiles to sink south Korea. Both elements acted as a deterrent against the US.
Cherry on top, the introduction of nukes by both have established an ultimate deterrent. The han surely know how to play the great game.
Iran has no nuclear weapons. They have tested a zero yield device but thus far do not have the fissile materials for even a single warhead, verified by the IAEA.
The US is now a net exporter of oil as is Canada.
The ground realities do not reflect your claims.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 07 Jan 20,, 16:56.Chimo
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Originally posted by ambidex View PostIranians have been supporting the Taliban. Iran Is More Deeply Tied to ISIS Than You Think
Originally posted by ambidex View PostWarnings of Counter value and counterstrike attacks are part of establishing the Deterrence. Both directly address the policy or decision-makers, not the people; neither is attached to how people are behaving on the streets. No one was shouting 'Death of USA' in Nagasaki and Hiroshima when your country attacked them with Nukes.
Originally posted by ambidex View PostAny watcher worth his salt from either side or in Russia and China or your Generals hardly cares about Trump's eccentricities. Fortunately, they are not the victim of Trump Derangement Syndrom. The reality is you behave whichever Liberal or non-Liberal way no one likes you on this planet especially the region now in focus. Your salvation is in Conflict and dominance. Like I said in the Indian context that there are bigger games at play. I call it 'THE RUSSIAN ALGORITHM' and it is a continuation of the Cold War.
If the problem is the Method, not the madness like another member has been continuously accusing Trump of then it is not only hypocritical but very subjective debate and adds no value. Your personal hate for Trump can not wish away the Wars your country has been fighting affecting millions if not billions.
It kind of made me think though what if Iran threatened to target the most important US cultural targets to Trumpkin, what would he say was the most important US cultural target? Trump Tower?
Another thing I find hypocritical is all these Trump fans who when Trumpkin betrayed the Kurds (which they may well come to regret) and suddenly pulled out of Syria with this isolationist type view were cheering "Yay! No more war! Troops home!" Now the reverse is happening its "Yay! Bad Iran, Kill their sites, go troops!" But when US forces pulled out of Syria and betrayed the Kurds they left it more in Iranian hands already. It is nothing to do with me or my country thank God but I would advise a long "sorry" letter to the Kurds, who are a proven fighting force, are largely secular and have a population in Iran, Iraq and Syria (as well as Turkey) aligned with a proposal to Hayastan (Armenia).
Then there is the question of whether this assassination was lawful and basically it was only so IF it prevented imminent attack on US assets or citizens. We have seen zero proof that it prevented such action - in fact Soleimani was due to meet the interim Iraqi PM the next day - says the PM. Then there are reports that the US DoD put several options for warning to Iran in from of the Orange fool and he chose the most outrageous, included to deter him from doing something stupid. So if there were other options at all to warn Iran and Trumpkin just chose this option clearly they not telling the truth by saying that Soleimani's presence in Bagdhad at the time constituted an 'imminent threat' to US assets or citizens.
Happy Orthodox Christmas to all those who follow the Julian calendar.
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Originally posted by tbm3fan View PostWell as for hoof in mouth disease we have this now about 52 sites. Seems Iran was divided into two camps regarding the Soleimani and was quite heated pro and con. Of course, the comment about cultural sites immediately turned that around to pissing off all Iranians as would be expected. If you want to piss off an entire population, then hit their cultural sites whether in Iran, Thailand, Russia, China, Japan or France, etc, is a sure fire way of doing it.
The very important point here is to make the warning early beforehand rather than surprise them later
From a crisis stability point of view this 52 site threat is a good thing.
He has tried to make it as credible as he can. No way to misunderstand what he said
Everybody heard it
Increases deterrence against misadventures
Preserves stability
Should the Iranians decide to defy this threat they will only have themselves to blame
So that's culpability after the fact taken care of as well : )Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Jan 20,, 20:54.
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Originally posted by snapper View PostFirst you seem to labour under the mistaken belief that I am a Yank; I am not and never have been. I wasn't even alive during Vietnam and it has nothing to do with any country which has a call on my allegiance. I am Polish Ukrainian since 2015 educated in England so I think I probably know more about 'Muscovite algorithm' than you do.
I'm impressed that you took the time and effort to respond him in so much detail. I started to reply and realized there's very little point to it.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostIf the Iranians decide to have open season on Americans now they will have to rethink.
The very important point here is to make the warning early beforehand rather than surprise them later
From a crisis stability point of view this 52 site threat is a good thing. He has tried to make it credible as he can.
Increases deterrence against misadventures
Preserves stability
Should the Iranians decide to defy this threat they will only have themselves to blame
So that's culpability after the fact taken care of as well : )
Donald Trump is an irrational narcissistic sociopath that has given ample and repeated demonstrations through his words and actions that he doesn't give two shits about committing war crimes, atrocities or following any laws or rules that prevent him from stroking his ego or enriching his bank account. Fortunately for the U.S. and the rest of the world, there are still some brakes on his insanity. So for fuck's sake, drop the bullshit about the "deterrent" value of his batshit crazy threats. All Trump is doing is destroying what's left of America's image around the world.
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Pentagon Rules Out Striking Iranian Cultural Sites, Contradicting Trump
WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper sought to douse an international outcry on Monday by ruling out military attacks on cultural sites in Iran if the conflict with Tehran escalates further, despite President Trump’s threat to destroy some of the country’s treasured icons.
Mr. Esper acknowledged that striking cultural sites with no military value would be a war crime, putting him at odds with the president, who insisted such places would be legitimate targets. Mr. Trump’s threats generated condemnation at home and abroad while deeply discomfiting American military leaders who have made a career of upholding the laws of war.
“We will follow the laws of armed conflict,” Mr. Esper said at a news briefing at the Pentagon when asked if cultural sites would be targeted as the president had suggested over the weekend. When a reporter asked if that meant “no” because the laws of war prohibit targeting cultural sites, Mr. Esper agreed. “That’s the laws of armed conflict.”
The furor was a classic controversy of Mr. Trump’s creation, the apparent result of an impulsive threat and his refusal to back down in the face of criticism. When Mr. Trump declared on Saturday that the United States had identified 52 potential targets in Iran if it retaliates for the American drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, none of those targets qualified as cultural sites, according to an administration official who asked not to be identified correcting the president.
Nonetheless, when Mr. Trump casually said on Twitter that they included sites “very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture,” the resulting uproar only got his back up. Rather than simply say that cultural sites were not actually being targeted, the official said, he decided to double down the next day with reporters flying with him on Air Force One, scoffing at the idea that Iran could “kill our people” while “we’re not allowed to touch their cultural site,” saying, “It doesn’t work that way.”
The comments drew protests from Iran and other American adversaries who said they showed that Mr. Trump is the aggressor — and not just against Iran’s government but against its people, its history and its very nationhood. Even some of America’s international partners weighed in, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain breaking with Mr. Trump by issuing a statement through an aide warning against targeting antiquities.
Military leaders were left in the awkward position of trying to reaffirm their commitment to generations of war-fighting rules without angering a volatile commander in chief by contradicting him. Mr. Trump’s remarks unsettled even some of his allies, who considered them an unnecessary distraction at a time when the president should be focusing attention on Iran’s misdeeds rather than promising some of his own.
“We’re not at war with the culture of the Iranian people,” Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of the president’s staunchest supporters in Congress, said on Monday. “We’re in a conflict with the theology, the ayatollah and his way of doing business.”
Mr. Graham, a retired military lawyer in the Air Force Reserve, said he delivered that message to Mr. Trump in a telephone call on Monday. “I think the president saying ‘we will hit you hard’ is the right message,” he said. “Cultural sites is not hitting them hard; it’s creating more problems. We’re trying to show solidarity with the Iranian people.”
Senator Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island and a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Mr. Trump’s threats would only encourage despots of the world to target antiquities themselves.
“America is better than that, and President Trump is flat-out wrong to threaten attacks on historic places of cultural heritage,” said Mr. Reed, a former platoon leader in the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division. “Destroying some of these culturally significant Iranian sites wouldn’t be seen as just an attack against the regime in Tehran, it could be construed as an attack on history and humanity.”
Iran, home to one of the world’s most storied ancient civilizations, has 22 cultural sites designated on the World Heritage List by UNESCO, the United Nations cultural organization, including the ruins of Persepolis, the capital of the Achaemenid Empire later conquered by Alexander the Great. Others include Tchogha Zanbil, the remnants of the holy city of the Kingdom of Elam, and a series of Persian gardens that have their roots in the times of Cyrus the Great.
_______________“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by snapper View PostBut when US forces pulled out of Syria and betrayed the Kurds they left it more in Iranian hands already.
Curveball i throw at Iranian hardliners is why is it when some external power comes at their cost in blood & treasure and takes down two hostile regimes on your border that you do not make friends with them ??
because they said Iran is axis of evil ? seriously!!!
They got rid of a murderous thug you fought for the best part of a decade and failed to do.
You massed a quarter million troops on the Afghan border against the Taliban once and did nothing more. They toppled them within a month.
Who gives a shit what they say, look at what they did... such useful enemies they are
How to get US to do that to India's neighbours. Pakistan & China : D
Happy Orthodox Christmas to all those who follow the Julian calendar.Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Jan 20,, 21:18.
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostIn my time, we were expected to fight two and half war at the same time. Facing the Soviets at the Fulda Gap. Protecting Japan against the Soviet Far East. And killing North Korea at the same time.
It's been adapted to the Indian environment, Pakistan, China & insurgents
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostPentagon Rules Out Striking Iranian Cultural Sites, Contradicting Trump
That is EXTREMELY telling. 1st off, the 52 target list is a DOD list, it wasn't a Trump list. That means that each of those targets are viable targets under the LOAC. However, there are risks involved and obviously some of those targets have some cultural sensitivity attached to them. Iranain backlash at such targetting MUST be conveyed to Trump as proper military men MUST DO. BUT THEY ARE LEGITIMATE MILITARY TARGETS. Just as a Mosque or a Church is no longer LOAC protected once you stored weapons and ammunition in it.
The LOAC will be obvserved. It is the Iranians, not the Americans, who turned those cultural sites into military targets.
That said. Trump is a batshit crazy moron carrying a rocket launcher. If you have any sense at all, YOU DO NOT PROVOKE him when all you have is a water pistol.Chimo
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostI actually watched the CNN interview. It was a very lawyery response. Asked if that meant the Pentagon will not hit cultural sites, the response was that the LOAC would be observed.
That is EXTREMELY telling. 1st off, the 52 target list is a DOD list, it wasn't a Trump list. That means that each of those targets are viable targets under the LOAC. However, there are risks involved and obviously some of those targets have some cultural sensitivity attached to them. Iranain backlash at such targetting MUST be conveyed to Trump as proper military men MUST DO. BUT THEY ARE LEGITIMATE MILITARY TARGETS. Just as a Mosque or a Church is no longer LOAC protected once you stored weapons and ammunition in it.
The problem is Trump's own words:
Mr. Trump casually said on Twitter that they included sites “very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture,” the resulting uproar only got his back up. Rather than simply say that cultural sites were not actually being targeted, the official said, he decided to double down the next day with reporters flying with him on Air Force One, scoffing at the idea that Iran could “kill our people” while “we’re not allowed to touch their cultural site,” saying, “It doesn’t work that way.”
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThat said. Trump is a batshit crazy moron carrying a rocket launcher. If you have any sense at all, YOU DO NOT PROVOKE him when all you have is a water pistol.
Even worse is that thanks to his insanity, the world, whether friend or foe, now sees the United States as being led by a rabid dog with little-to-no brake on his behavior, becoming no better than the North Korea of Trump's beloved Kim Jong Un.
And that perception will linger long after Trump departs into whatever hell awaits him.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostI actually watched the CNN interview. It was a very lawyery response. Asked if that meant the Pentagon will not hit cultural sites, the response was that the LOAC would be observed.
That is EXTREMELY telling. 1st off, the 52 target list is a DOD list, it wasn't a Trump list. That means that each of those targets are viable targets under the LOAC. However, there are risks involved and obviously some of those targets have some cultural sensitivity attached to them. Iranain backlash at such targetting MUST be conveyed to Trump as proper military men MUST DO. BUT THEY ARE LEGITIMATE MILITARY TARGETS. Just as a Mosque or a Church is no longer LOAC protected once you stored weapons and ammunition in it.
The LOAC will be obvserved. It is the Iranians, not the Americans, who turned those cultural sites into military targets.
That said. Trump is a batshit crazy moron carrying a rocket launcher. If you have any sense at all, YOU DO NOT PROVOKE him when all you have is a water pistol.
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Originally posted by statquo View PostHas anyone entertained the possibility that the "52 targets" Trump has stated is just another fantastical, untrue statement coming from Trump? I'd have to see it to believe it and have a hard time believing anything that comes from him and his administration.Chimo
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Originally posted by snapper View PostNot Quds. But we denounced the Taliban when they blew up the Buddhas, we denounce ISIS/Daesh when they blow up ancient sites and historical artifacts rightly in my view yet you say it is ok for Trumpkin to threaten to do similar. How do you justify why it wrong when Islamics do it but ok when a puerile self centred US President threatens to?
Look fool;
Rest of you moral rant I have already answered. What is your concern if Americans, in order to save their interests and keep the deterrence viable, are ready to WARN and do counter value strike on Iran?
we
First you seem to labour under the mistaken belief that I am a Yank; I am not and never have been.
Americans can be living in any part of the world. The kind of nonsense you spew on American internal politics can make anyone believe that you a concerned American.
I wasn't even alive during Vietnam and it has nothing to do with any country which has a call on my allegiance.
I am Polish Ukrainian since 2015 educated in England so I think I probably know more about 'Muscovite algorithm' than you do.
I never knew or read about the 'Muscovite algorithm' or "Russian Algorithm". I only recently developed this theory after reading certain patterns. I also boldened 'I' in my post just to convey that it is my personal opinion.
What part do you think Trumpkin plays in this neo 'cold war' as you describe it because from where I am sitting it looks like Trumpkin is a product of this 'Muscovite algorithm'.
Trump is part of the same establishment which is fighting wars offshores; which Obama obliged to as well. I ONLY SEE THAT. When I will develop Trump Derangement syndrome I will start seeing every sundry nonsense to feel mentally secure and relevant.
Not sure why my understanding of that must in some or any way stop me finding him a despicable representative of the species with his base bragging ("I am probably the greatest expert in ...."), his schoolyard bullying and all his unceasing lies. There seems to me to be no reason I can condemn him - one for being a traitor and also because he is just crass and juvenile.
It kind of made me think though what if Iran threatened to target the most important US cultural targets to Trumpkin, what would he say was the most important US cultural target? Trump Tower?
Iranians are killing your (addressing Americans, not a Ukranian) Men. Towers can be built, but not the same men.
Another thing I find hypocritical is all these Trump fans who when Trumpkin betrayed the Kurds (which they may well come to regret) and suddenly pulled out of Syria with this isolationist type view were cheering "Yay! No more war! Troops home!" Now the reverse is happening its "Yay! Bad Iran, Kill their sites, go troops!" But when US forces pulled out of Syria and betrayed the Kurds they left it more in Iranian hands already. It is nothing to do with me or my country thank God but I would advise a long "sorry" letter to the Kurds, who are a proven fighting force, are largely secular and have a population in Iran, Iraq and Syria (as well as Turkey) aligned with a proposal to Hayastan (Armenia).
Then there is the question of whether this assassination was lawful and basically it was only so IF it prevented imminent attack on US assets or citizens. We have seen zero proof that it prevented such action - in fact Soleimani was due to meet the interim Iraqi PM the next day - says the PM. Then there are reports that the US DoD put several options for warning to Iran in from of the Orange fool and he chose the most outrageous, included to deter him from doing something stupid. So if there were other options at all to warn Iran and Trumpkin just chose this option clearly they not telling the truth by saying that Soleimani's presence in Bagdhad at the time constituted an 'imminent threat' to US assets or citizens.
Happy Orthodox Christmas to all those who follow the Julian calendar.
No one is privy to the threat level American agencies are dealing with. You are building all your argument because (due to your personal hate) Trump is not reliable.
BTW the proof is in the utterances. When your enemy says something you believe in it. War book Rule no. 6 (don't take it literally).
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostAmbidex is both ignorant and delusional. Just for starters, apparently the "UK/Europe" next to your name is too difficult to read.
I'm impressed that you took the time and effort to respond him in so much detail. I started to reply and realized there's very little point to it.
I am all eyes to read you long detailed posts and answers every line.
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