Palestinians Want To Declare Statehood, But They Don't Even Have Unified Leadership

[Doktor]

If the only obstacle about the statehood of that land is possibility of civil war breaking afterwards, there is no reason to postpone it.

Having elections in Palestine at the moment most probably would Hamas into power and later they wont be able to gain statehood being led by known terrorist organization is your guess?

As I said, there are other obstacles for the statehood in September like:

- the borders
- recognition of the State of Israel

The new country can be set under temporary rule appointed by the UN (like Kosovo and Bosnia) until the state doesn't get all the organs functional and elections are held.

[bigross86]

A civil war helps nobody at all, especially the ones doing the dying. If the civil war can be avoided by postponing the declaration or by having elections why not do either of those? I'll tell you: Power plays and personal honor. The people leading the Palestinians care more about how they look than about their actions and how they affect the people they are meant to be leading.

[Doktor]

The Bosnians got into UN with civil war started.

There is a bigger issue to be solved before Palestinians gain statehood, and that's the borders of the future state.

As for their inner clashes, it's not the problem for the rest of us until civilians got in jeopardy. With that being said look at how Saddam and Muammar ended.

If they go to a civil war I foresee Iraq/A-stan scenario unfolding. Only it wont be the Americans who will send troops on the ground.

[bigross86]

Yes, people will kill each other regardless. However, I personally see this as much more than the possibility of a civil war. I'd say it's almost a certainty, especially given what happened in the last elections. Now you've got two groups that can't stand each other, are fighting over the same position that only one person can hold. On one side you've got a group that's on every single terrorist watch list in the world, on the other hand you've got a man that doesn't believe in democratic elections

[Doktor]

The thing is the statehood itself has nothing to do with people's stupidity to go and kill each other.

My point was and still is that possibility of a civil war should not be an obstacle. There is a probability of civil war everywhere.

Palestinians can even bring Hamas to power to rule the country, but will face embargoes, sanctions... like all the other countries and those sanctions will be imposed by UN, not by Israel. Don't you see the beauty in this from your pov? After all it wont be IDF who will be to blame but the UN and the blue helmets.

They can loop rockets if they want, but you will be able to propose sanctions, systematically blow their bases, hit their infrastructure as it will be a state vs state war. It's all up to them, with the statehood comes a responsibility.

[bigross86]

I'm sorry, but I'm not that well versed on that region, but it seems to me that you're saying a civil war is not enough of a reason to not declare statehood. I differ, I believe that life should be protected whenever possible, and following a path that will obviously lead to innocents dying because of politicians' egos is utter stupidity and arrogance

[Doktor]

Let me put it by example.

There was an ongoing war in Bosnia. There are three bigger ethnicities that were in clashes with each other.
The civil war was started and what happened? US recognized it in April 1992. Bosnia became UN member in May 1992.
The civil war lasted till 1995 ;)

[bigross86]

So if Hamas doesn't recognize the Fatah signature how you will have elections there?

Anyway, it is easier for Israel to deal with official Palestinian army (will they be enabled to have one?) then to be occupier and deal with Hamas into populated areas.

All I was saying that the risk of civil war breaking after independence/statehood/you name it is not a reason itself not to allow one nation to have it's own state.

This is like saying, hey my kid is naughty I wont let him go out and play with the other kids. Even the kids have a system to sort these kind of things. The other kids will avoid my kid until his behavior becomes acceptable.

To me that seems like a plenty good reason. Here's an example (a weird one, I was watching Friends last night): In essence you're telling two brides getting hitched on the same night to share the last wedding dress in the store. It can't be done, one side will end up with nothing, and in the process the dress itself might get torn or ripped while they're fighting over it.

[bigross86]

The problem isn't that there are two Palestinian political groups. The problem is that there aren't two rational Palestinian political groups. As Parihaka pointed out, if one is elected into power then the other just resumes its terrorist operations completely undermining any chance at a negotiated peace between Israel and the official Palestinian 'government'.

Frankly I find the whole situation retarded. Do you really think if Hamas gets into power within a recognized Palestinian state that they will at all be interested in peace with Israel? It kind of runs contrary to their official mission statement.

But that's fine. Even if Hamas is elected and rules this new state, that means we can officially declare war with an actual state and then we can just keep up the Status Quo. The only difference is that every time they launch a rocket at a civilian population, they will be an official state breaking international law, instead of an underdog fighting back at the big bad Israelis

[Doktor]

The problem with two or more political forces on the Palestinian side is who signs on the dotted line? It's all very well if the PA signs but Hamas refuses and continues to lob missiles into Israel.

So if Hamas doesn't recognize the Fatah signature how you will have elections there?

Anyway, it is easier for Israel to deal with official Palestinian army (will they be enabled to have one?) then to be occupier and deal with Hamas into populated areas.

All I was saying that the risk of civil war breaking after independence/statehood/you name it is not a reason itself not to allow one nation to have it's own state.

This is like saying, hey my kid is naughty I wont let him go out and play with the other kids. Even the kids have a system to sort these kind of things. The other kids will avoid my kid until his behavior becomes acceptable.

[Cedz]

The problem isn't that there are two Palestinian political groups. The problem is that there aren't two rational Palestinian political groups. As Parihaka pointed out, if one is elected into power then the other just resumes its terrorist operations completely undermining any chance at a negotiated peace between Israel and the official Palestinian 'government'.

Frankly I find the whole situation retarded. Do you really think if Hamas gets into power within a recognized Palestinian state that they will at all be interested in peace with Israel? It kind of runs contrary to their official mission statement.

[Parihaka]

The problem with two or more political forces on the Palestinian side is who signs on the dotted line? It's all very well if the PA signs but Hamas refuses and continues to lob missiles into Israel.

[bigross86]

-"They're not terrorists, they're 'freedom fighters'"
-"But they're on every single terrorist watch list in the world"
-"You just don't understand their struggle for freedom. You're as prejudiced and racist as the rest of them"

And yes, the risk of an impending civil war should be a very big deterrent to declaration of a state, especially if it can be solved before the declaration with simple elections. The problem is that the premier likes it where he is and has cancelled elections after he was voted into office

[Doktor]

The risks of getting the future state into a civil war has nothing to do with the recognition of the state itself.

However, it's dubious to hope someone will recognize a state and establish diplomatic connections with a state led by a terrorist organization.

[bigross86]

Because like I said before, I'm not so bloodthirsty that I desire the deaths of Palestinian civilians in the civil war that will ensue. I may happen to be very pro-Israel and have many problems with the Palestinians and their leadership, but that doesn't mean I don't believe we can't live in peace, if the Palestinians want it. Lord knows Hamas doesn't.

Like I said in my first reason: A unified state will finally give us someone concrete to talk to, or declare war upon, whichever they prefer. It could be advantageous for Israel to declare war on this new state and keep the Status Quo as is. That way Palestine will be breaking the GC and will be committing human rights violations left right and center. Once they lose their underdog "freedom fighter" cloak, the entire world will see them for who they really are