Dateline: Ukraine

[JAD_333]

The article is a bit like saying Chamberlain's strategy against Hitler worked because he knew it'd ensure a Churchill take over.

The real credit for this "victory" (aren't we celebrating a bit early?) goes to some guy who owns a lot of steel mills in Easter Ukraine. Now, if the guy's actions were pre-arranged with either the US or Putin, then I'd be really impressed.

If I were the Ukrainians' I'd make damn sure it wasn't the 2nd.

Well, I won't fight you on that. The title of the article was unfortunate. The points otherwise were plausible. I totally agree it's too early to celebrate, if indeed celebration is in order at all. This thing has a ways to play out. I think we need to focus more on what's happening at the top, country to country, meaning all the players. Events on the ground are less important in terms of how this is all going to turn out. The rout by the steel workers underscores the reality that most Ukrainians in the east don't want to become part of Russia. Like I've said before, Putin's game plan now is to avoid appearing to back down and to not be accused to abandoning the separatists. He can do it. I like to see the western press stop characterizing his moves as 'backing down'. He'd like it to be seen as a part of the solution. We can give him that.

[S2]

JAD,

As a diplomat, it may seem advantageous or even imperative couching the deleterious impact of any western press characterization of "…backing down…". Unfortunately for Putin and Foggy bottom spin managers, his own bellicosity has trapped him to a considerable degree. Not our fault and not an inaccurate read by any measure. He is, to a great degree, indeed backing down. Sanctions and the very real threat of more, further, should remain until his unlawful occupation of the Crimea is reversed. Maybe until he leaves office.

[zraver]

In other news, NASA is taking bids for a space launch trampoline... The American Space program officially died in the Crimea. Unless Space X or some other corporation can step up we have no rocket motors for heavy lift and no habitable capsules to get astronauts to the ISS we built.

[Parihaka]

Never mind the discrediting of an article merely because of the source and quoting one historical event to refute another, the full article is pretty much on the money, except IMO crediting Obama with being the master strategist is far from proven.

Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working - Vox

Max Fisher, the author, wrote for the Washington Post blog up until a few weeks age when he left to join VOX's new world events division, along with several other Post reporters. Fisher is a respected analyst who formerly wrote for Atlantic magazine.

I notice that Mother Jones cherry-picked the part of the article that suits their strong Obama bias. I agree with Fisher's read of Putin's dilemma, but think it was a creation of his own making. Read the whole article and see what you think.

Excellent article Jad

Loved this

The lesson that Putin is learning is that Russia depends on the global economy, whether it likes it or not, and the global economy doesn't like it when you go invading other countries and tempting the richest nations in the world to maybe consider sanctioning you. This is actually a significant change for Russia, which at the height of its Soviet power was not integrated into the global economy and so didn't have to worry about things like investor sentiment. But now it is and it does.

[Parihaka]

In other news, NASA is taking bids for a space launch trampoline... The American Space program officially died in the Crimea. Unless Space X or some other corporation can step up we have no rocket motors for heavy lift and no habitable capsules to get astronauts to the ISS we built.

My apologies for digressing back into this but the US has 2 years supply of Russian engines stored, SpaceX has a capsule fully capable of delivering human payload and numerous US companies can supply both engines and tubes within 2 years.

[zraver]

My apologies for digressing back into this but the US has 2 years supply of Russian engines stored, SpaceX has a capsule fully capable of delivering human payload and numerous US companies can supply both engines and tubes within 2 years.

1. The nation that went to the moon has to buy engines from Russia....
2. No they don't, they hope to have one by the end of 2015
3. Might, not can.

Until 2016 at the earliest, the US manned space program is dead.

[Parihaka]

1. The nation that went to the moon has to buy engines from Russia....

Doesn't have to, chose to. There's enough supply in stock for two years and can be extended by using different launch platforms if necessary. There's a lot of US companies that will happily step up within that two year timeframe, if funding comes through.

2. No they don't, they hope to have one by the end of 2015

That's a business as usual timeline. Dragon was designed from the get go for human freight.

3. Might, not can.

Will, if your government requires it.

[gf0012-aust]

if the USG wants to send a cogent lesson about the power of the private sector to respond when needed - and to show the limited range of blackmail that the russians have - then they can get a space launch up within the 2 years

this is about political will and intent - its not about capability constraints

and russia has leverage on gas supply for 2 years - 3 years max - so that ace has a limited life as well

putin has woken everyone up and not realised that his deck has limitations

[citanon]

Doesn't have to, chose to. There's enough supply in stock for two years and can be extended by using different launch platforms if necessary. There's a lot of US companies that will happily step up within that two year timeframe, if funding comes through.
That's a business as usual timeline. Dragon was designed from the get go for human freight.

Will, if your government requires it.

Right. Essentially they have the capsule, it's been flown to the ISS, astronauts have actually entered it in space. What they need to do is to just qualify it for manned launches.

[JAD_333]

JAD,

As a diplomat, it may seem advantageous or even imperative couching the deleterious impact of any western press characterization of "…backing down…". Unfortunately for Putin and Foggy bottom spin managers, his own bellicosity has trapped him to a considerable degree. Not our fault and not an inaccurate read by any measure. He is, to a great degree, indeed backing down. Sanctions and the very real threat of more, further, should remain until his unlawful occupation of the Crimea is reversed. Maybe until he leaves office.

Not a diplomat, but a long time poker player...you know what I mean? I agree with the backing down, and said so right after Putin called for postponement of the separatist referendum and seemed to endorse the May 25 elections. I even beat the media to it. But I now see him as backing away, to put a fine point on it, although one could argue there's not much difference between the two. Yes, sanctions and all the other sticky problems must have him thinking what more can he get as cheaply as he did Crimea, which, until he retires, will be a bone in his craw in his international relations. We agree.

[tbm3fan]

What is happening here besides an unattended APC in the middle of the street?

[JAD_333]

S2:

Backing away...this is 2nd and half time calling a withdrawal...I have a feeling this one is for real... How long does it take to mount up and move out?

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Putin orders troops back from border


19 May 2014 Last updated at 09:30 ET

Ukraine crisis: Putin orders troops back from border

[S2]

JAD,

"Not a diplomat, but a long time poker player...you know what I mean?"

Think so. Suggesting Putin's been bluffing with a pair of deuces, relatively, might be apt. I guess where I was having a problem was suggesting western press might give diplomacy an assist right now and avoid the salt. You clearly know too many reasons why that could never be the case.

Not sure Putin will notice anyway. After getting the ol' mother Russia sentiment stoked he might have a rather discontent home audience with which to deal.

I'm trying to keep Gary's scenario before me yet it seems all this has been for so little at such a high price. WRT Crimea, it raises the spector of sector sanctions. Nobody appreciates brute leverage like Putin. If selective sanctions coupled with the threat of worse amidst an already deeply troubled home economy compels this sort of "backing away", should we presume less if attached to a Crimean retreat? With Sector sanctions looming for non-compliance?

What might that buzz mean for the presently stampeding capital flight west and miniscule investment east?

It's remarkable what stuff like this does for focusing the spotlight on bank underwriters and the actuary sciences.

[gf0012-aust]

a few things for me re Putin

this was always geostrategic - its part of his focus to revitalise the west and north west - leasing facilities on the black sea has been a thorn in the militaries side - they lost autonomy - and they regard the black sea as theirs entirely, not something to be shared with other countries on its rim

he secures the port and he secures the largest shipyard in the region able to build 150,000cm tankers
he gets a third distribution option for LNG
he gets crimea back (an emotional win)
he didn't get eastern ukraine cleanly but he has destabilised Ukraine and put them on notice that he will play the diaspora card if and when it suits

the negs are numerous

its no longer the cold war where blunt force trauma can win the day (which the chinese worked out long ago) - there are consequences for using the "sudetenland" approach to making geopolitical statements
the new baltic "euros" have quite convincingly been able to say "we told you so" when they were warning about Putin waiting for when the US was perceived to be politically weak and military low (due to draw downs on the continent)
that the EU will realise that you do have to sleep with one eye open and that a strong military is not a liability but a deterrent
that alternative energy supply is needed - otherwise it will replay 1973 again
that everyone better pull together and make sure the panama is widened and completed sooner rather than later
that what canada and norway have been subjected to in the last 9 months will become even more interesting once Russias Mistrals come on line
that the decision by the russians to reactivate 2 x Sierras that have been basically decomm'd for the last 10 years says a bit about Russias desire to rebuild force structure
that funding russian nuclear platform and weapons decontamination by the US, Eu, Japan and Australia should stop - the IMF is showing that they're hurting from sanctions even though they dismiss it. If thats the case then they don't need the US, EU and Japan fuinding their decontam progs
that a skandinavian defence block is broader than the proposed Denmark, Norway and Sweden
there is merit in a western slavic block
NATO isn't dead

[S2]

Still waiting on the troop pullback.

Calls For Anti-Separatist Demonstrations Largely Ignored-WAPO May 20, 2014

Akhmetov might be finding the limits to his own power as well.