Dateline: Ukraine

[Minskaya]

Since violence and sex sell,here the face of the Lugansk People Republic Ukraine News One: Erotic photos of self-styled Luhansk foreign minister emerge online (VIDEO)

Meh. Just another so-so MILF. You can find gazillions of real hotties on any Ukraine dating portal.

[Mihais]

There are plenty hotties in my neck of the woods,thank you very much :).The point is the Russian PR is in decline.They started with Shtanski,continued with Poklonskaya,but this one is just ugly.And she dared undress.Yuck!

[Minskaya]

The point is the Russian PR is in decline. They started with Shtanski, continued with Poklonskaya, but this one is just ugly. And she dared undress. Yuck!

Well lol, I endeavored to be a bit more tactful but I have to agree. Hopefully, she scared Putin off ;)

[Minskaya]

UN Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic has told the BBC that Ukraine is edging closer to "the point of no return". Pro-Russia separatists and Ukrainian government forces are still battling for checkpoints in the east. The internationally sponsored "Round Table" internal dialogue is going nowhere. Mr. Simonovic says the UN has documented countless cases of abductions, beatings, and killings in eastern and southern Ukraine. He went on to say that all of this mirrors what happened in his native Yugoslavia before a bloody civil war tore his country apart.

The presidential election is seven days away. Data strongly suggests that Ukraine is ill prepared to hold a nationwide election at this time. The problem is that there is precious little time left for postponement. Literally, it is now or never. I'm an optimist by nature, but I am also a pragmatist and quite frankly, I disagree with Mr. Simonovic. I think we have probably passed the point of no return. Rupture has already occurred. Unless Mr. Poroshenko has a miracle up his presidential sleeve, it seems to me that the situation will crystallize and intensify in the coming months. Partition and/or civil war loom on the near-horizon.

[JAD_333]

Who would've thought it...

Vladimir Putin Has Been Outplayed by Barack Obama | Mother Jones

Kevin Drum
Previous | Next
→ Foreign Policy, Obama
Vladimir Putin Has Been Outplayed by Barack Obama

—By Kevin Drum
| Fri May 16, 2014 10:27 AM EDT

367

Max Fisher notes this morning that although President Obama got a lot of flak for his restrained response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, his approach of giving Vladimir Putin enough rope to hang himself has turned out to be a lot cannier than his critics expected:

This has been so effective, and has apparently taken Putin by such surprise, that after weeks of looking like he could roll into eastern Ukraine unchallenged, he's backing down all on his own. Official Russian rhetoric, after weeks of not-so-subtle threats of invading eastern Ukraine, is backing down. Putin suddenly looks like he will support Ukraine's upcoming presidential election, rather than oppose it, although it will likely install a pro-European president. European and American negotiators say the tone in meetings has eased from slinging accusations to working toward a peaceful resolution.

Most of this is economic. Russia's self-imposed economic problems started pretty quickly after its annexation of Crimea in March and have kept up. Whether or not American or European governments sanction Russia's broader economy, the global investment community has a mind of its own, and they seem to have decided that Russia's behavior has made it a risky place to put money. So risky that they're pulling more money out.

A lot of that may have come the targeted sanctions that Obama pushed for against individual Russian leaders and oligarchs. Those targeted sanctions did not themselves do much damage to the Russian economy. But, along with Russia's erratic behavior in Ukraine and the lack of clarity as to whether Europe and the US could impose broader sanctions, it appears to have been enough to scare off global investors — the big, faceless, placeless mass of people and banks who have done tremendous damage to Putin's Russia, nudged along by the US and by Putin himself.

I'm a little less surprised by this than Fisher, though Obama's policy was always a bit of a crapshoot since there was no telling (a) just how important Putin thought annexation of eastern Ukraine was, and (b) how much economic pain Putin was willing to put up with. This wasn't necessarily a rational calculation on Putin's part, which meant it was never entirely amenable to rational analysis on our part.

Still, there have always been good reasons to think that a military annexation of eastern Ukraine represented a huge risk for Russia—potentially turning into a long and wearying guerrilla war—and that even the existing economic sanctions were biting hard enough to be worrisome. After all, Putin's nationalistic fervor may have initially played well domestically, but in the long term domestic opinion depends heavily on economic performance. If the Russian economy started to tank, those adoring crowds would have turned surly in pretty short order.

In my mind, the biggest wild card has always been this: what, really, is the value of eastern Ukraine to Russia? Yes, there's some industry, and potentially a land border with Crimea. But those are frankly small things, especially if annexing Ukraine was likely to lead to prolonged low-level war and even stiffer sanctions from the West. As for Putin's claim to be responsible for oppressed Russian-speaking minorities, I don't think anyone should take that too seriously. He may sincerely feel aggrieved about this, but even the threat of action has already gotten him what he wants on this score: a strong likelihood that Kiev will negotiate a certain level of autonomy for regions in eastern Ukraine, and perhaps a more accommodating approach in other countries toward Russian speakers.

With the caveat—again—that this has never been an entirely rational situation, I continue to think that eastern Ukraine simply isn't valuable enough to Russia to justify a lot of risk. Putin made a play for taking control without any real opposition, and it failed. It's obvious now that the cost would be pretty high, both in military opposition and in economic pain. Too high. And Putin knows it.

Would a more assertive military posture from Obama have made a difference? Maybe. But there's as much chance it would have made things worse as there was that it would have made things better. This is something that the John McCains of the world have never understood, which is odd since they know perfectly well how they themselves respond to threats of violence. Why do they think Putin would respond any differently?

In the end, Putin will probably come out of this OK. He has Crimea, and he's regained at least a bit of the influence over Ukraine that he lost via his bungled foreign policy early in the year. If he backs off now, the economic pain will ease; Ukraine will be a more pliant neighbor; and he'll retain his popularity at home. If he's smart, he'll decide this is close enough to victory, and call it a day.

But the United States will come out OK too. The punditocracy will have a hard time acknowledging this, since they're pretty dedicated to the idea that there are only two kinds of foreign policy success: military intervention and flashy, high-stakes diplomatic missions. But there are more subtle kinds of success too. This may well turn out to be one of them.

[Mithridates]

[Adolf Hitler Has Been Outplayed by Neville Chamberlain | The Daily Telegraph

Party papers tend to fall in line on this kind of thing. Mother Jones, as one of the many house organs of the Democratic Party, can be expected to launch into a chorus of hosannas if Obama merely gets up in the morning.

[JAD_333]

Who would've thought it...

Vladimir Putin Has Been Outplayed by Barack Obama | Mother Jones

Never mind the discrediting of an article merely because of the source and quoting one historical event to refute another, the full article is pretty much on the money, except IMO crediting Obama with being the master strategist is far from proven.

Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working - Vox

Max Fisher, the author, wrote for the Washington Post blog up until a few weeks age when he left to join VOX's new world events division, along with several other Post reporters. Fisher is a respected analyst who formerly wrote for Atlantic magazine.

I notice that Mother Jones cherry-picked the part of the article that suits their strong Obama bias. I agree with Fisher's read of Putin's dilemma, but think it was a creation of his own making. Read the whole article and see what you think.

[gf0012-aust]

more sidebar...

The French intelligence ship FS Dupuy de Lome has entered the waters off Bulgaria’s port city Varna a day after its return to the Black Sea, a military source told RIA Novosti Thursday. "The French intelligence ship is now stationed in the western Black Sea, 30 miles away from the port of Varna," the source said. The intelligence vessel is designed for radar monitoring, as well as the collection of signals and communications behind enemy lines. It can also intercept phone calls and e-mails. Under the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, ships belonging to countries that do not border the Black Sea are not allowed to stay in the area for more than 21 days. The agreement was earlier breached by the frigate USS Taylor, which stayed at a Turkish port 11 days over its limit. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Turkey, a NATO member, had failed to inform Moscow about the violation. The Dupuy de Lome was earlier deployed to the Black Sea from April 11 to April 30, after the standoff between Moscow and Kiev led to the Crimean peninsula’s secession from Ukraine and reunification with Russia

[citanon]

Never mind the discrediting of an article merely because of the source and quoting one historical event to refute another, the full article is pretty much on the money, except IMO crediting Obama with being the master strategist is far from proven.

Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working - Vox

Max Fisher, the author, wrote for the Washington Post blog up until a few weeks age when he left to join VOX's new world events division, along with several other Post reporters. Fisher is a respected analyst who formerly wrote for Atlantic magazine.

I notice that Mother Jones cherry-picked the part of the article that suits their strong Obama bias. I agree with Fisher's read of Putin's dilemma, but think it was a creation of his own making. Read the whole article and see what you think.

The article is a bit like saying Chamberlain's strategy against Hitler worked because he knew it'd ensure a Churchill take over.

The real credit for this "victory" (aren't we celebrating a bit early?) goes to some guy who owns a lot of steel mills in Easter Ukraine. Now, if the guy's actions were pre-arranged with either the US or Putin, then I'd be really impressed.

If I were the Ukrainians' I'd make damn sure it wasn't the 2nd.

[citanon]

<pause>


Traditional Vyshyvanka blouses


Fashionable Vyshyvanka tunic

Today (in Kyiv) is the traditional Vyshyvanka Festval in Ukraine which heralds the onset of Spring. Both men and women wear the traditional embroidered shirt/blouse known as a vyshyvanka. There is also a very colorful skirt worn by women called a zapaska. Females also wear the traditional Ukrainian flower-bands on their heads. The patterns on the fabric oftentimes reflect different cities or regions. Ancient burial site excavations confirm that the vyshyvanka has been worn here for aeons.

<carry on>

Ok, I totally get why Putin wants Ukraine back with the motherland now. :hug:

[Doktor]

Uhm... he needs a new shirt?

[sated buddha]

Uhm... he needs a new shirt?

Putin is Russia's Salman Khan.

He does not need a shirt.

[Doktor]

Putin is Russia's Salman Khan.

He does not need a shirt.

Well it would have been better if the girl had no shirt and Putin had one. This world is not perfect.

[sated buddha]

Well it would have been better if the girl had no shirt and Putin had one. This world is not perfect.

I was looking more at her flaming orange hair. Maybe I'm really finally getting old.

Speaking of Putin and Obama, did you know that Putin among other things is also a biker?



Obama .....

[citanon]

Uhm... he needs a new shirt?

Yes uh of course, that's exactly what I meant. :whome: