Serbia-the autopsy report

[Versus]

The whole problem lies in the fact, as I stated at the beginning of this thread,that Serbia never undertook the coherent analysis and reconstruction effort,that would separate facts from emotions. It never took its identity out of the epic context of the songs so over time the identity became epic and grandeur. Mythical if you want. So with mythical identity mythical reality is formed and so the answers to it were equally mythical.

I don't think that your proposal is funny and I wasn't ridiculing it. The jam jars are fine if you have the stable economy and the stable system,they work very well in that context. But in the context where it is possible to loose 2/3 of your country in the next 10 years, jam jars make little sense. All you can think of than are not the jam jars but weapons and weapon systems. Here is the photo for the Calgon commercial and it shows the map of Serbia from 1911, although my thoughts are that the map that is more accurate is the one from 1878.
This commercial sparked the enormous outrage and criticism exactly because Serbs know that it is quite possible.

Historically speaking the the relationships between Serbia and the West were hostile while with Russia were friendly. So most of the Serbs chose Russia in one way or another, on the rational or irrational level and are at best suspicious towards the West.
So if what happened here is all about market expansion, it is all about selling and buying it is a bit hard to swallow.

[cyppok]

The whole problem lies in the fact, as I stated at the beginning of this thread,that Serbia never undertook the coherent analysis and reconstruction effort,that would separate facts from emotions. It never took its identity out of the epic context of the songs so over time the identity became epic and grandeur. Mythical if you want. So with mythical identity mythical reality is formed and so the answers to it were equally mythical.

Everyone suffers from this malady the problem is not letting it get to you and live in the reality of today.

I don't think that your proposal is funny and I wasn't ridiculing it. The jam jars are fine if you have the stable economy and the stable system,they work very well in that context. But in the context where it is possible to loose 2/3 of your country in the next 10 years, jam jars make little sense. All you can think of than are not the jam jars but weapons and weapon systems. Here is the photo for the Calgon commercial and it shows the map of Serbia from 1911, although my thoughts are that the map that is more accurate is the one from 1878.
This commercial sparked the enormous outrage and criticism exactly because Serbs know that it is quite possible.

I am going to reiterate, jam jars and fillings for fruit bars will provide jobs, very stable jobs. A big factory with export potential with large production volume will provide lots of stable jobs from construction, transportation, engineering of all types, food processing, farm prices will increase, fertilizer prices will firm up. Women will have more kids with Men whom work there because future will be more certain due to wages. Other businesses will gravitate to the area to provide services and so on.

Externally lobbying by the business community will create incentive for outside forces to attain closer to your point of view long term its a very large stabilizer effect. You could even push through laws like the Japanese that make it impossible for anyone of other ethnicity to gain citizenship.

Historically speaking the the relationships between Serbia and the West were hostile while with Russia were friendly. So most of the Serbs chose Russia in one way or another, on the rational or irrational level and are at best suspicious towards the West.
So if what happened here is all about market expansion, it is all about selling and buying it is a bit hard to swallow.

Yes and no. Markets are transient but in the long term the country inside it can mold its own agenda provided it has not given up sovereignty of that market to a 3rd party entity Eu in most cases. With Eu there are negotiations which parts you give and take and how much etc...

[Versus]

Here is the story about oil.
Company eyes coal reserves in Kosovo

[Versus]

Cyppok, you see the economy as a condition while I see it as a factor. Meaning that you think that strong economy is a condition for stability and progress, while I think that the economy is one of many factors that produce stability and progress.

Let me make an example.

Lets say that Serbia becomes the jam and fruit fillings paradise and that all that you said happens untill June 24th 2016.

Than this happens.

June 25th 2016, 4 am, Presevo valley.

-At exactly 4 AM, Kosovo launches the artillery barrage on the positions of Serbian gendarmerie that are protecting the border zone. After 3 hours, an force of 400.000 Albanians,supported with 500 tanks and 300 apc's and ifv's rolls over the border,overrunning the Gendarme bases and check points. At 10 am, the entire Presevo valley and the parts of southern Serbia is under their control. They dug in on the line that represents eastern borders of Great Albania. At 1 pm, the uprising starts in Macedonia, where lightly armed Albanians pin down Macedonian army and the police, while the armour from Presevo valley pours into the Macedonia overrunning the positions and forcing Macedonian armed forces and the police to surrender.

June 26th 2017, 2AM, Eastern Serbia,Eastern and Western Macedonia.

-Bulgarian and Albanian forces under NATO supervision step in order to handle refugee crisis and stabilise situation.

June 27th 2017, 7AM, Sanjak region.

-Sanjak Muslims riot and riots turn into a revolution and the uprising begins. NATO sees potential disaster mounting and orders Turkey to stand by in order to be deployed in the Sanjak region. At 5 PM,in Bosnia hostilities erupt. Vojvodina declares independence at 7 PM, followed by Hungarian and Croatian recognition, whom under NATO supervision enter its territory in order to stabilise it.

June 28th 2017,10AM,

-Turkish troops arrive into the region and are deployed in Eastern Serbia,Sanjak and Bosnia.

June 29th 2017,9 PM.

-Over three million refugees are in Serbia, which collapses under its own weight and becomes the failed state.

Why this has happened?

[Doktor]

1. The Kosovars don't have the ability written above:

400.000 military out of 2.000.000 citizens means nothing will work.
Kosovo has 500 tanks and 300 apcs? Wow!!!

2. Doesn't matter how much defeatism you put, it is simply impossible not to notice something that big is preparing.


Now back to the jams. If it takes all Serbia to cultivate berries, and produce jams for whole Europe and North America, it is still less benefitial for the economy then to open 2 car factories ;)

[Versus]

1. The Kosovars don't have the ability written above:

400.000 military out of 2.000.000 citizens means nothing will work.
Kosovo has 500 tanks and 300 apcs? Wow!!!

2. Doesn't matter how much defeatism you put, it is simply impossible not to notice something that big is preparing.


Now back to the jams. If it takes all Serbia to cultivate berries, and produce jams for whole Europe and North America, it is still less benefitial for the economy then to open 2 car factories ;)

1.More than 50% of Kosovo population is under 25 years old and mostly it is unemployed. Most of the revenues for Kosovo come from their families working abroad, in the Eu and US. That leaves 1 million people whom are combat capable and half of those will be enough to start the campagin. Add 40.000 of them in southern Serbia, than the fact that Albanian army, when it undertakes its modernization program, will ditch the old t-55s and apc's. They did it before, during the Kosovo campagin.
2.Yes it is, it happened during the battle of the Bulge. Look the distances from the border, calculate the speed and the arrival time and you will see that it is quite possible.

You can't clutivate that much raspberries cause they requre certain conditions for cultivating, so they are area depenent. Also it is an very fragile plant, calculate the drought,the frostbite,the hail,desease, negative campagin (your country has been bombed with depleated uranium) and you will see that it is not as rosy as it might look. Not to mention that our villages are de populating due to increased funkysation of the bubble gum economy, that celebrates youth,free spirit aka reckless and unresponsible behaviour that pleases most basic urges. The terror of the youth is the trademark of globalism, Doc :)

[Versus]

Cypress Hill - Insane In The Membrane - YouTube

Straight thinking deprivation due to heat wave.Or maybe not...:insane:

:) :)

[Doktor]

Versus,

I believe the heat is serious there, but so is here. You torture my brain cells so early in the day ;)

1. Let me see your math.

Kosovo has 2 million inhabitants, half are young to serve, correct?
That leaves 1 million. Half or so of them would be women. Will they serve too?
That leaves you with 500k males. Do they have elderly males? how much?15 of the population?, that's 150k. That's 350k combat ready males.
Now, who's gonna work the daily jobs?

2. Battle of the Bulge saw total of ~280k on both sides, Germans had 200k.


I was saying even if you could cultivate berries on the whole territory, employing everyone and everything in the process, financially would bring less benefit then opening 2 factories.

[Versus]

Versus,

I believe the heat is serious there, but so is here. You torture my brain cells so early in the day ;)

1. Let me see your math.

Kosovo has 2 million inhabitants, half are young to serve, correct?
That leaves 1 million. Half or so of them would be women. Will they serve too?
That leaves you with 500k males. Do they have elderly males? how much?15 of the population?, that's 150k. That's 350k combat ready males.
Now, who's gonna work the daily jobs?

2. Battle of the Bulge saw total of ~280k on both sides, Germans had 200k.


I was saying even if you could cultivate berries on the whole territory, employing everyone and everything in the process, financially would bring less benefit then opening 2 factories.

It didn't stop them in the 90es,women,teenages even kids, age doesn't matter to them. I was talking about the future, they have 2 million now, how much they will have in 5 years? Than add up the Albanians from abroad too,mercs...it adds up. With that many on the frontline,there are less people that need services thus less people is needed to service those whom stayed at their homes.

[cyppok]

No you don't get it. You need 1 just 1 plant to start. Ergo one international manufacturer of a niche industry Jams was an example. Say Smuckers builds a plant outside of Belgrade or some other city on a good transport hub locale to export it out. That 1 plant starts the process of improvement in every direction, that I mentioned before.

Just 1 is what it takes to start. If the environment for the growth of that plant is created and it because an economically efficient vehicle for that company you could bridge things by lobbying for ancillary aspects and ask the company to lobby on your behalf. As long as the economic environment for the plant is good others may come and the process goes into a positive feedback loop. All this might take 5 years or 10 but during that time those that benefit will try to soften the political situation by lobbying on their own behalf and yours by asking for not too many concessions in that industry via EU entry, free trade agrements granting re-exportation of jam to the USA, lower tarriffs and other things.

Politically the line will get softer since there will be interests to protect for those that would have them and they will try to make harsh things go away.

All of what you said is unreasonable because politically those things would be deemed internal matters and you would be able to cordon things off and let the pressure out. Your outcomes are all extremely radical and long tail events that can be prevented by doing other things until it gets that bad. You are assuming all politicians are extreme idiots and people on the other side want to go extreme and gain independence. You think they don't see the wonderful crapper on the other side of the border and how business prospers? being sarcastic here.

Everything is marginal all Serbia has to do is provide a marginally better environment for those people than elsewhere in the neighborhood thats it.

[Versus]

No you don't get it. You need 1 just 1 plant to start. Ergo one international manufacturer of a niche industry Jams was an example. Say Smuckers builds a plant outside of Belgrade or some other city on a good transport hub locale to export it out. That 1 plant starts the process of improvement in every direction, that I mentioned before.

Just 1 is what it takes to start. If the environment for the growth of that plant is created and it because an economically efficient vehicle for that company you could bridge things by lobbying for ancillary aspects and ask the company to lobby on your behalf. As long as the economic environment for the plant is good others may come and the process goes into a positive feedback loop. All this might take 5 years or 10 but during that time those that benefit will try to soften the political situation by lobbying on their own behalf and yours by asking for not too many concessions in that industry via EU entry, free trade agrements granting re-exportation of jam to the USA, lower tarriffs and other things.

Politically the line will get softer since there will be interests to protect for those that would have them and they will try to make harsh things go away.

All of what you said is unreasonable because politically those things would be deemed internal matters and you would be able to cordon things off and let the pressure out. Your outcomes are all extremely radical and long tail events that can be prevented by doing other things until it gets that bad. You are assuming all politicians are extreme idiots and people on the other side want to go extreme and gain independence. You think they don't see the wonderful crapper on the other side of the border and how business prospers? being sarcastic here.

Everything is marginal all Serbia has to do is provide a marginally better environment for those people than elsewhere in the neighborhood thats it.

Do you think that the US and the Eu want the image of Serbia to be changed? Why they would want that? Most of the politicians are not idiots,although some of them are, but most of them suffer from personality disorder, namely the narcissistic personality disorder.

I don't see how having Smuckers can help us. Lets say that they come here open an production plant, they bring their technology,their standards and their management. Same goes for the accompanying industries. We only supply them with cheap labour and are left with no incentive to develop our own scientific capability that would enable us to develop our technology,our standards and our management. All that you end up with is a well paid work force that has very limited interests in anything else than to follow the trends and to consume since everything it needs it imports. Globalisation doesn't produce creative people it produces drones.

[cyppok]

Do you think that the US and the Eu want the image of Serbia to be changed? Why they would want that? Most of the politicians are not idiots,although some of them are, but most of them suffer from personality disorder, namely the narcissistic personality disorder.

I don't see how having Smuckers can help us. Lets say that they come here open an production plant, they bring their technology,their standards and their management. Same goes for the accompanying industries. We only supply them with cheap labour and are left with no incentive to develop our own scientific capability that would enable us to develop our technology,our standards and our management. All that you end up with is a well paid work force that has very limited interests in anything else than to follow the trends and to consume since everything it needs it imports. Globalisation doesn't produce creative people it produces drones.

Farmers get higher prices and can grow more raspberries using more money they get to improve yields, competitiveness. Less spoilage of raspberries ergo more sold less lost in transit. People who ship it have more to do and earn income from that. Suppliers for those plants will make money anyone from making packaging to machine tool engeneers whom will repair certain aspects. Electricity of the area can be improved to make it more stable and likely other businesses will gravitate there. Labor yes cheap but will give people earning capacity.
Families can form easier with wages possible long term. Small businesses like restaurants will flourish they will reinvest in the community. Other small businesses that manufacture things may spring up, like packaging or another raspberry oriented business from local capital based on infrastructure enticed and built out based on foreign capital. All of this is just the tip of the iceberg and multiplier effects that can occur and will likely occur. If you go watch a movie the documentary about sillicon valley it all started with 1 company (fairchild semi i think) building a plant eventually 2 engeneers that left that company build another company, and people that left that company founded other things. Other industries sprung up and the list goes on and on.

Globalisation creates incentive for price competition this is good and bad. Makes raspberries more competitive if tariffs elsewhere are reduced to accommodate the demand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTC_RxWN_xo

about 53 minutes in Shockley Semi people leave to create Fairchild people leave to start Intel etc... etc.. 65 major companies.

[snapper]

So we wish to create a Greater Albania? Watch out Dok.

[Doktor]

Cough, cough...

Balkan 'Benelux' would speed up EU entry
19.06.12 @ 10:05

BRUSSELS - Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro should join forces to build a new and permanent co-operation structure aimed at boosting their political and economic relations, with a final common goal of accelerating EU membership.

The EU calls on Balkan countries on an almost daily basis to increase regional co-operation and implement EU-set reforms. This should be encouraged. But existing regional forums are mostly informal and do little in concrete terms for regional or EU integration.

We believe it is high time for change and this is why we propose the creation of a Benelux-type structure bringing together Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro.

The new structure would give fresh impetus to preparations for EU membership and would help the four countries better compete with well-established EU economies once they join.

It would create a market of 8 million people with free movement of goods, services, capital and people as of end-2012, bringing immediate benefits instead of waiting for EU accession.

The agenda is ambitious. But there is no time to lose: people need growth, they need jobs and better living conditions - a reason to stay instead of seeking their fortune abroad.

The case is acute in Kosovo, the least developed of the four nations.

The sad truth is that EU accession might take a long time. Croatia achieved full territorial sovereignty in 1995 and is to join the EU in 2013. If we consider that Kosovo is today where Croatia was in 1995, we might envisage EU accession in 2030. That is too long.

The new structure should prioritise trade and customs facilitation, the fight against organised crime, local development of border regions, infrastructure, the environment, energy and the development a regional financial market.

It could start with an inter-governmental treaty between Albania and Kosovo, creating a technocratic secretariat to implement measures, and follow up with invitations for Macedonia and Montenegro to join.

It is important to convince the international audience that this is not some kind of greater Albania through the back door.

Such a secretariat could develop an integration agenda, screen government actions for compatibility and lobby them to stay on track.

It could also promote best practice - as with the success stories of e-procurement in Albania, the creation of an online land registry in Montenegro, business laws in Macedonia and police training in Kosovo.

The region already has its clubs: the Regional Co-operation Council based in Sarajevo and the so-called Seeto group for infrastructure projects based in Belgrade.

But the four neighbouring countries are a good fit - they are all highly competitive when it comes to attracting foreign investors and they have a different history and ethnic mix than Bosnia and Serbia in the north.

Kosovo's ever-growing trade deficit puts it at the centre of this project.

It recently won the right to export goods to and via Serbia. But it remains to be seen whether this will mean big volumes in the short-term. Diaspora remittances are drying up. Foreign investment is a pipe dream. Its small businesses need to access regional markets.

Albania, Montenegro and Macedonia can also serve as stepping-stones for Kosovo towards Italy, Greece and the rest of the EU.

Creation of joint corporations in several sectors between enterprises from different sectors of the four countries should also be encouraged.

As with the Benelux, the Nordic Council and the Visegrad club, their co-operation can and will continue even when thy become full members of the EU.

Joint challenges will remain
The southern Balkans will stay at the periphery of the Balkans and of Europe and will need friends who work hard to support them and try to attract attention and investors.

Despite the beauty of the Montenegro landscape, the white beaches of Albania, the historic monasteries of Macedonia and the natural treasures of Trepca in Kosovo, there is no automatic prosperity a-la-Kuwait waiting in the wings.

Development will be much faster if borders are put aside and economic co-operation, backed by EU and US support, becomes the four countries' top priority.

Gunther Fehlinger is a Austrian economist living in Albania and Ekrem Krasniqi is a Kosovo-born journalist living in Brussels

[Versus]

Hahahahahhahaha!!!!Sorry Doc, I couln't help it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVkUv...feature=relmfu