Serbia-the autopsy report

[cyppok]

Versus I think the ethnic component matter more than religious one. Sanjak wouldn't join Greater Albania willingly in my view. They would fight them just as much if not more so as they do you.


Also didn't you have elections recently
Serbian Election | Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture

Toma Nikolic's victory in the Serbian presidential election has panicked the boys of the press. The Washington Post has particularly hysterical account, typical of the Post's purely ideological coverage of foreign affairs. Both the headline and the lead sentence get in the key-word "ultra-nationalist," while Nikolic's moderate strategy is described as "claims to have transformed himself into a pro-EU populist." Don't ask me what the writers thought this means, though it does indicate that for the Post, anyone who loves his country has to hate the EU.

The Impact of Tomislav Nikoli

Eurasia Review
Serbia Faces Threat of Debt Crisis, Fiscal Council Says - Bloomberg
If the budget is cut into line and less bureaucracy happens a lot more things might become more efficient. Including things you worry about.

I think Serbia is lucky to not be in Eu and have low borrowing costs that would set it up for a binge of debt issuance and reckless bureaucratic overgrowth that plagues most countries that join. Until they hit the ceiling and can't borrow anymore.

[Doktor]

Who's gonna borrow to Nikolic?

Besides Serbia can get a lot of money if they convince Milosevic's family to send back 1/2 of what they sent out during 90s ;)

[cyppok]

Sometimes being looked down upon and not being admitted to the club is a blessing. It forces one to become self-reliant and entrepreneurial long term and shapes the view that relying on others is a fools errand long term. Panacea of joining Eu like the others wears off and reality of working for what you want becomes more realistic not just for country as a whole but individuals within it. This is far more valuable than what could have been gained otherwise. Yes turmoil and depression and the whole struggle against the grain is hard, but once you get used to it, it is a very viable base from which to uplift oneself and build upon, rather than platitudes and magnanimity of a rich uncle whom one day can't support your habit anymore.

[Doktor]

I don't know what inspired you, but we have been on our own here on the Balkans, for a while. Serbia is a leader in that field.

But, saying EU was not good, take a look at Greece, they are in worse situation then when they had Junta, and are still better then the rest of us. Should tell you something.

[Versus]

Huh,it is very difficult to think let a lone write anything at almost 90 degrees of pure,sadistic heat at the computer table.
My stance is a bit weird on the matter of how Serbia should develop and act. Also my way of thinking is a on atom level, when compared with two major blocks, one being pro-Russian and the other one being pro-European. In other words, I think that pro Russian block hates Serbia because it is not big and powerful as Russia and that the pro-European block hates Serbia because it is not rich as the West. The result is that no one loves Serbia for what it is and I belong to the third block that loves Serbia as it is and for what it is.

[Versus]

Ah,Tomislav Nikolic the new president and Ivica Dacic as a prime minister backed up by the parties from the 90es. I can't hardly say that it is a new thing,since they are present in the political arena from the day one. They are all well known to me and all I can say that I don't see any chance of progress with them as well as I didn't saw any chance of progress with the former Democratic party.
Both parties are the top tiers of pro-Eastern and pro-European blocks, which means that they don't give a dime for Serbia and that they are the primary reason why we are where we are.
The so called pro-European and Democratic block that used to be in control and it was presented as such in Western media, well in reality they are just political opportunists and plutocrats whom relay solely on marketing to present themselves as progressive and liberal. They are living in Potemkin's villages and to make things even funnier they are the Potemkin's villagers. Fake,hollow and without real concept or strategy for anything except filling their own pockets and living large at the expense of the taxpayers. They were riding on the wave of change after Milosevic went down (the official story) but in fact they rushed into the marriage with Milosevic power structures and were wedded with them trough corruption and monopoly rights. It is because of them we have tycoons that suffocated any real progress and economic reconstruction. The Milosevic's elite is nothing more than the mixture of secret police figures and presidents of large companies which than privatised those companies in the illegal fashion than legalised that during the “pro-European” march. The net end result is a formation of plutocratic order that lives off the donations and aid money and that is the primary reason why they lost the support in the election, cause they are nothing more than the fashion week show. Pure form with no substance.

[Versus]

As far as the economy,problems are divided into two groups,macro and micro parts. The macro economy relays on the strategic planning and presents the long term framework of how things should be. The micro part of the problem is the structure of that economy and the legislative frame work in which it operates. The truth is, none of these two parts are understood correctly and thus the goals have not been set and the whole system spends too much energy in sustaining itself which than leaves almost no energy to create new value, the new value up on which the gains can be made.

The macro level or the strategic part is troubled by two major factors. First one is the instability of the Serbia as a state and the second factor is the legacy of the former Yugoslavia's economy that is the debt and the economy model that was designed to function as a part of global Yugoslavian economy but not as a self sufficient system on its own.

So the macro economic strategy of former “pro-European” or “pro-Western” government was, we will sell all our assets to the foreign companies,than bring three or four major ones and live off taxes and revenues. In order to do so, we will lead the minimum employment strategy, cut off all social safety nets to reduce costs, reduce the wages so that we could be competitive with the rest and any gaps in the budget we will finance trough new loans and credits. The globalisation virtually made any form of domestic production uneconomic so we should focus on the service sectors and educate people to become high paying mangers and bankers that live off what I call the “disco-ball&bubble gum” economy. The assassinated prime minister Zoran Djindjic was obsessed with that liberal junk books, win-win positivist type of shallow thinking,right off the shelf solutions and so on. He formulated the policy of rapid jumps toward modernity and was obsessed with speed and future.

When he was assassinated, the turn came with the Kostunica and his happy bunch of “pro-Russian” or “pro-Eastern” buddies. Make no mistake, they wanted to do the same thing to Serbia as the democrats, they wanted to sell it. The only difference is that they wanted to sell it to the Russians. So both blocks are the same at their core, they don't appreciate or care for Serbia, they care for others. So the Kostunica sold our oil industry to Russians and gave them monopoly.

Kostunica went down from power when Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and the blocks switched places again, bringing the Democrats back into the saddle. But with 2008 came the global crisis and globalisation was grinding to a halt.

So after the 2008 the “EU mantra” went into the overdrive but since there was nothing to back it up, the entire “progress” was based on creating this virtual picture that things are moving for the better. While in fact they were stagnating and crumbling apart. And it took 4 years to become clear that its is all a mirage and so Democrats were removed form the power.

But during those 10 years after Milosevic, the new middle class or cast to be more exact was formed. That newly formed middle cast is actually consisted out of government employees, that became government employees trough the phenomenon called partysation that creates partycracy.
In essence it means joy join the political party, political party places you on the state budget where your task is to support the party unconditionally. So political parties in Serbia are not political parties at all, they are similar to medieval feuds or special interest groups that cater the needs of the party elite and the tycoons whom finance them. I would go as far to even say that politics in Serbia doesn't exist at all, what it does exist is a mirage a fog of politics that pretends that the politics exists.

I did a small research about Willy Wimmer letter and it appears that it is true and that the document is valid. It was published several times in the German media and on the internet as well as it was quoted in several analysis as well.
So you see, Serbia will never be accepted into the EU and it is permanently excluded from that process. But the mirage needs to be maintained that it will be accepted into the Eu one day so as long as “politicians” are blabbing about it the myth of integration remains and thus the “European future” for Serbia. In reality none of those things exist and as soon as people realise that and accept that, the better it will be. Lets hope that they realised that now, although I highly doubt it.

[cyppok]

I don't know what inspired you, but we have been on our own here on the Balkans, for a while. Serbia is a leader in that field.

But, saying EU was not good, take a look at Greece, they are in worse situation then when they had Junta, and are still better then the rest of us. Should tell you something.

I somewhat disagree. The small player always has to pick sides to win survival. You did not to a large degree get wiped out and recolonized with different ethnicities. Serbs willingly or not did fight on one side or another from Ottomans to Habsburgs this does not mean that you were not alone.

Huh,it is very difficult to think let a lone write anything at almost 90 degrees of pure,sadistic heat at the computer table.
My stance is a bit weird on the matter of how Serbia should develop and act. Also my way of thinking is a on atom level, when compared with two major blocks, one being pro-Russian and the other one being pro-European. In other words, I think that pro Russian block hates Serbia because it is not big and powerful as Russia and that the pro-European block hates Serbia because it is not rich as the West. The result is that no one loves Serbia for what it is and I belong to the third block that loves Serbia as it is and for what it is.

West dislikes you for the same reasons Russia likes you. West dislikes the division of power setup and legal aspects that are not aligned with the way it is used to at home. Not economically disassociating of property rights and social well being. Geopolitical smoothness of regional control.

Say you joined Nato, changed your civil/property laws to align with continental values, revamped cultural aspects to re-align with how the west values things in relation to foreigners, openness, religious matters etc... Once you do that they would have no problem with you. What you sacrifice is simply your identity of who you are that was built up over the past history (millenia). The reality is they would be happy with a facade of compliance which they get from Hungary through Bulgaria. The truth is its temporary these things matter less as values shift back and forth. Eu dislikes disintegration it creates in their economic market map dominance in its backyard to a large degree but that is tough since everyone needs their economy to function and not simply be a market for someone else to dump things into without reciprocity.

Russia likes you because you are ethnic kin and more or less identity wise very close, even though it was formed under different circumstances. Russia would be happy if you joined Eu because then they would have influence from within, but not Nato.

Not sure you can be hated for being weak.

You want to know the absolute truth why you are where you are?

... here it comes
Its not the politicians being incompetent, its not the direction of the country, its not the identity of the people, its not even due to the breakup of Yugo and ethnic conflicts...

The reason you are in a shitty position is because you are trying to negotiate benefits you without giving up everything what the other person wants. Ergo you are trying to bargain as tough as possible for what you are paying. Eu wants market dominance{within every market political, financial, production, etc.} you are resisting that is all.

You do realize that if they haven't privatized those companies, they would have been sold and then shut down to shift demand westwards. This is one of those heads they win tails you loose scenarios where no matter what happens it isn't pretty. Happened in Russia as well. Capital destruction is not just money being wasted, it is also idle equipment and production capacity being shut down.

Russia has monopoly in your oil industry because it supplies the raw material. Refineries are tuned to specific variants of crude spending hundreds of millions to retrofit them to different crude types is tough in market environments. If your supplier tells you he wants them and he controls the production of your crude type you sell. Otherwise you get shortages and the economy slows down.

Serbia will be accepted into the EU (unless it falls apart, then you get to negotiate good trade agrements with countries far better than what Eu would give you since you can pit them against one another to be the first in your market and ask for reciprocity etc...)
Serbia will join Eu because they will want your market and the negotiations to enter it will be tough, and that is good, because you shouldn't gain market access unless you give it.

[Versus]

Well, where to begin...I know, my favourite,the oil story.

I have nothing against our oil capacity being privatised,sold or what ever to anyone. As far as I am concerned, it makes no difference if it is Shell or Exxon or LukOil or BP. The problem I have with our oil refinery is that it sits in the middle of the damn city so as a by-product of oil refining you have cancer rates going trough the roof. So what you save on fuel it gets eaten by medical and funeral bills. Since it changes the genetic code, you than have a long term damage and the costs overshadow the benefits form our oil industry working in a profitable manner.

In my little magical world where I am the supreme ruler of Serbia, I would displace the refinery outside the urban areas first,in a place where wind can't push the toxic gases and than privatise it.
Also, thanks to the specific urban building code, our streets are narrow and are not suitable for massive car transport so I would place the carbon tax and advocate to ban cars from the city centres and give subsidies for bikes and hybrid cars as well as ones whom use natural gas. Or even the cars with hydrogen catalysts. I mean we have the domestic technology for hydrogen catalyst engines and they are not a space age technology at all, so for me, I would introduce that technology and get it up and running as soon as possible. But than that would mean that LukOil will get its profits cut and with it I wonder how much the Russia will “love” us. Or how much the Eu would hate us for that matter.

You say that Eu or the West,what ever that means, wants form us to become global consumers to fit in to their framework of things and to value things that they value. Meaning to make us compatible with them and they see our identity as a problem. In order to get access to our market. So in a way we have to become them. I wonder if the market of 7 million people with a miserable purchasing power is worth the effort.

You know,Cyppok I am not a believer in the conspiracy theories and all that hidden agenda, but recently I saw a movie about mystical imperialism that I found to be very enlightening about many things. Let me rephrase my statement about global CT's and hidden agendas. I don't believe in them because I think that the core idea of global dominance is essentially a nuts idea. But than this move explained that yes it is a nuts idea but that doesn't mean that people don't believe in them and act according to them. So than, from that perspective things are getting rather scary and interesting.

What if, Slobodan Milosevic wasn't the exception, what if he is a rule, what if he was one “species” of the nut jobs? What if nut jobs exist like lets say like mammal's exist. So like you have a mouse which is a mammal, that is the small nut job, but also you have a whale which is also a mammal, that would mean that you have a super big nut jobs in the world?

Imagine that.

That move actually describes the Zbigniew Brzezinski as the supreme nut job, since in essence it describes him as fanatical religious person whom is obsessed by the fear from Russia and that he wanted to bring down the communism single handed in his narcissistic out burst of ego mania and paranoia. So since Brezinski is influential beyond any doubt, and has crafted the US foreign policy, the things that happened in the Balkans and the way how it is presented in the West is perfectly normal.
It is insane but it is real.

Here is the link-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBbrZLTdTBQ

[Versus]

Cyppok,how come that the dominance is the goal of European Union if they constantly saying that they want freedom? The only logical construct than would be that they want to achieve dominance trough freedom,which than brings us back to the Willy Wimmer's letter and the goals defined there.
And than that means that the document is true and that EU doesn't want Serbia and that Serbia is excluded from European development. At the end we get to the Zbigniew Brzezinski whom defines the enemies of the west to be communists and orthodox Christians. That is the only logic behind the biggest Catholic cathedral being built in a place that is 90% Muslim and other 10% is either Orthodox or Catholic Christians. How that does help, building the Catholic cathedral in a place where there is a less than 5% of Catholic Christians and that is considered by the Orthodox Christians to be their holy land from which they were driven out by force? They were driven by force that comes from the culture that has Catholic church at its base.

So what the Serbs should think?

What they should think after 200.000 of them was driven out of Croatia which happens to be a Catholic country just 4 years before and after the genocide from WW2,that they suffered from the hands of Croats? The first thing that comes to mind, when you mention Croatia and Catholic Church in Serbia is not the Pope but the atrocities committed during the world war 2 and during the 90es. Remember, the propaganda was such that each party was seeing its own victims and not the crimes committed in its name so the reality of the conflict is deeply skewed.

It doesn't make any sense at all if you want peace and understanding and tolerance, but it makes a perfect sense if you want hostility,war and instability and than use that as a legal justification for keeping Serbia away form the Eu, blaming it to be intolerant,ignorant and nationalistic. Actually uncivilised and barbaric.

I don't consider the Kosovo to be a holy land, I don't believe in holy lands as a concept, since I know my history and I don't have to be physically present on the “holy” place to feel connected with my identity or history. But the majority of Serbs do see it that way and this situation is making them very frustrated,sad and angry. And with their anger comes the instability for the entire country that happens to be my home land, thus their anger affects me.

[cyppok]

When your marginal capacity is exploding due to productivity gains as it is in the west ANY market even marginal ones are WORTH it. Because the prices form on the margin every little market matters and the larger the production capacity the more it does. Every marginal dollar is most likely to be the most profitable dollar thus more worthwhile to pursue from business perspective.

You are ignoring how much cancer gets caused by coal plants that produce electricity it is similar or may even be more than refineries (downwind) even with scrubbing etc... here in the states as well. The reality is that refinery was placed where it was for strategic and other reasons long ago. Moving it is in essence building a new one.

You are assuming your wisdom trumps the wisdom of time and ability as well as how things turned out due to reality. Those technologies you speak off require pollution to be constructed, serviced, molded, and produced just because you do not see them doesn't mean they don't exist. You assume that they could be shifted(bad effects) indefinitely, that is possible only if you are willing and able to pay costs to shift them indefinitely most if not all countries cannot. About half of all oil goes into things other than fuel for cars, think plastic, fertilizer, enzymes, polyethylene, and a lot of other things. Shifting it off a transport hub ads cost to every single thing that you do not see, there are interconnections.

The agenda is never hidden how it comes into being and is fostered by outside and inside powers usually is. Influencing that which someone wants is always circumspect to a large degree. What we see on the surface is the tip of the iceberg we were meant to see because that is the aspect we can be pushed by. Thats my opinion on it.

Nutjobs exist some succeed some fail, some are not nutjobs etc... Odd discussion at that btw.

Church systems are bureaucracies like any others and like to build white elephants (useless projects) on the belief that expansion can be fostered by other matters once there is a point to expand from. I don't know they might put in a missionary position in there to expand Catholisism, it could work if you think about it. Imagine they give away free food and aid to those whom convert so there would be incentive for some to do so its marketing and economics like most things. Ergo they might convert some of those muslims away, and if they hire an advertising agency or a good public relations firm and really smart people who do studies on how to market it properly they could even push a trend or something. Speaking of which you might be interested in Tengrism revival in Central Asia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tengrism
TENGRISM: IN SEARCH FOR CENTRAL ASIA
Notice this thing got revived by very few people mostly intellectuals and it got traction because it is interwoven into the identity of most people in the region.

Unfortunately I think the Catholisism push is only natural since there is always an undercurrent in competition for 'followers' vis a vis various religiouns especially since there is overlapping in the region. Yes shit happens sometimes religious people are complicit sometimes they aren't what can I say.

Zbigew and others like him are more geopolitical strategists even though their religion comes into play its not the center of their ideology. What they believe and try to force is the domination through possible enforcement of force of their ideals in how others should think and behave, very intrinsic things. In some ways they succeed in others they fail. Its a battle of wills and wits on international stages with the amount of influence and power you have, you try to gain what you can and want, etc...

P.S.
You have to try to look at it from your position, the person with whom you are competing, the 3rd person whom is looking at the two of you and will try to extract benefits via control over influencing outcomes between the two of you and the other people on that chain. Its an exponential function of interrelationships and influences, life really.

You could go about it anyway you want. I think the best thing is to do whats best for you and try not to get entangled in sht because it just hinders your progress. Get a girl, start a small business, smile and nod to those whom try to influence you but do what benefits you and ignore them. My philosophy to some degree.
[thus far I am a failure on all three counts though]

Also imagine if you were the product of thus: Your grandpa is muslim, grandma catholic, other grandpa orthodox, other grandma jewish. Your parents are kinda everything and nothing and not really religious etc... You don't really give sht about religion and just wanna live life. Baggage even historical baggage has a time and place but letting it dominate decision making and your identity is not the way to go.
[not me just saying put yourself in that perspective, or at least attempt to view life through someone elses eyes. I am not saying take their position just see where they are coming from and then all of it stops to matter as much.]

[Versus]

When speaking about nutjobs and the mystical imperialism, by no account, I wanted to exclude the Serbs from that concept ,since the Serbian mysticism plays the central role in the creation of this mess,just as well as mysticism of other parties. I've been studying it for a long time now and indeed it is a pivotal logical concept although it is, as any mysticism, irrational. I don't want to be misunderstood when I was talking about Catholicism, I have nothing against its teachings or beliefs nor against Catholics for that matter. I was married to one,nothing unusual there.

We have a heat wave here, a monstrous one so it is very difficult for me to do anything right,than to write so...yeah,plenty of posts will be written.

[Doktor]

Versus,

Your theory about EU vs Orthodox doesn't hold water ;)

Look at Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia.

Nor the ex-commie ban is correct.

[Versus]

It's not my theory,I am expressing how it is seen by the majority here.

My theory is that, as the person climbs to power, things happen to that person's mental state and that it becomes unstable in most cases. Or to put it bluntly they go crazy thus becoming the nutjobs. The creation of a nutjob has to do mostly with the narcissistic personality disorder which than enlarges that person ego thus leaving the doors wide open for pathological behaviour to develop. The fail safe mechanism of the system is such, that it prevents rational criticism of the person that is in the top position, since he or she as a leader must poses certain qualities that are seen as good by the majority. The fact that on that position many of them transform into full blown sociopaths is often hidden and than mystified by some higher (divine) cause and it is presented as such.

Would anyone vote for Milosevic if he was presented as he actually was ,a mediocre communist apparatchik and underachiever, whom psychopathic desire for power comes out his feeling of being miss traded and neglected as a child and felt abandoned after his parents got divorced and than both of them committed suicide? That he never felt that he had control over his life and that he developed the alternate personality in order to protect himself? That all that he is not,became all that he is in public, cause public had a very little insight in his personal life. How he became dominated by his wife,Mirjana Markovic, whom had deeply traumatised childhood as well. Her father, whom was the communist activist during the world war 2, betrayed his own wife to the Germans, not because of ideological conflicts, but to get rid of her, cause although he was a communist, at his soul he was a “rooster”, running around Serbia fighting Germans and Chetniks, but also seducing and impregnating other women. That Mirjana Markovic, was one of his unrecognised children, which than makes her early childhood extremely traumatic, leaving the weak foundation for personality development later on.
It is no wonder why they both assumed the roles of protectors of the entire nation cause they know first hand how does it feel to be abandoned. Its all about projection and inversion, basic human psychology 101,Doc :)

[Doktor]

And they said Draskovic and Seselj were nuts