PLA troops spotted near China-Vietnam border

[Triple C]

I think the formal translation that geographers use is 大不列顛與北愛爾蘭聯合王國, or the United Kingdoms of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Few western countries are as unfortunate in its Chinese translation than Portugal, 葡萄牙, lit. Grape's Teeth. Allegedly the nation appeared in a reform-minded imperial exam essay question, and the less-than-well informed contestants were utterly flabbergasted. Their epic fail essays were circulated by the literati for amusement.

[gf0012-aust]

Of course, the ones that are being sold now MUST be better than the ones they sold the Chinese, that's a great sales pitch. Same platform, same models...I don't really see what will be so different. Other than the PLAN is way more proficient with these platforms.

The PLAN has had the same platform for over a decade. I get that these are the "black hole" subs and all, but, the VPN is way behind the learning curve on this. Even if the PLAN doesn't have spectacular ASW (which I will disagree, partly because I find ASW to be a crapshoot in general), they have still been operating in these waters, and probably with the same platforms the VPN intends to use. Furthermore, the distance from Cam Ranh to the Paracels indicates to me that the VPN KILO's wont be going anywhere near the Paracels for a very long time. Giving the PLAN more time to improve detection strategies, aside from sheer presence.

V/r,
D

might be some confusion in my attempt to draw a big picture with minimal dialogue.
nobody would challenge the notion that the chinese are the more proficient and capable outfit - within a generation they have moved from a brown/green water navy with blue water assets into a a real blue water navy able to project the governments strategic intent (not tactical) with a high degree of confidence. what has been missed in the broader media is that the dynamics and temperature of the region has resulted in some very significant force development changes.

at the state actor level the pacrim is the centre where conflict between states is more likely
this region has the fastest growing ratio of submarines to other principle combat vessels for force dev
the shift towards capable subs is basically dominated by all countries in a state of "conflict" over territorial claims
alliances and relationships are being redefined due to the above - and from a US perspective its a foreign policy gift as they haven't had to do anything to actively change the dynamics - this shift is being triggered by the residents = not by some brilliant planning by State Dept/Sec State
there is a resurgence in the region to buy subs to not only counter the PLAN (and myriad of sister orgs tasked with chinese maritime policing roles), but the subs sought are not just designed for patrol - but also for wandering around a bit further
there is a clear shift towards changing local navies into having the capacity to provide localised air support - some of these shifts are embryonic but some are clearly about force projection - and about semi-expeditionary roles. there is a distinction between a low order ARG role and a full tilt ESG role. one can be geared to HADR, the other is about prosecution of intent for far more calculated military roles.

so, in a long winded way, what i'm saying is that the regional temperature is changing in a manner where the neighbours see more of a need to protect their interests and must be seen internally as doing so.

out of all the local disputes, the viets are more likely to punch on and make sure that they aren't publicly pressured - but they'e also planning ahead. ramping up their relationships with india, russia, the US and then smaller regionals like Aust is not accidental planning on their part.

they're not in a position to go toe to toe - but the chinese would make a severe miscalculation in thinking that the viets won't be prepared to do so

[gf0012-aust]

Sir,

Could you point me in the direction of a source for that?

V/r,
D

apols for tardy reply, have been off due to an operation.

i get a number of rolled up alerts which basically gather up snapshot summaries of media alerts all over the world. I also get snapshot summaries from maritime specific interest groups. some of these are the maritime equiv of "scramble".

as you can appreciate, a sub in the middle of 80 other support vessels around a manned rocky outcrop garners attention.

[gf0012-aust]

and its just amped up a notch

Vietnam fishing vessel 'attacked' by Chinese boat, says coastguard boss - Australia Network News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[cdude]

and its just amped up a notch

Vietnam fishing vessel 'attacked' by Chinese boat, says coastguard boss - Australia Network News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

First, what did they expect?

Second, where are the pixels?

[ace16807]

First, what did they expect?

Unfortunately, what one expects and what one hopes for are two entirely different outcomes for these actors.

[hanswu25]

Vietnam preparing to sue China over oil rig: house speaker

Vietnam preparing to sue China over oil rig: house speaker | Politics | Thanh Nien Daily

The spokesman for Vietnam's national legislature has announced that the country is taking its final steps toward filing an international lawsuit against China for towing an oil rig into Vietnamese waters and attacking Vietnamese vessels.

[Officer of Engineers]

they're not in a position to go toe to toe - but the chinese would make a severe miscalculation in thinking that the viets won't be prepared to do so

No one is going to start a war knowing they will lose. A Chinese military victory will deny Vietnam's claim for generations to come.

[gf0012-aust]

No one is going to start a war knowing they will lose. A Chinese military victory will deny Vietnam's claim for generations to come.

it comes down to the tried and true maxim:

"proportionate response" the viets and chinese have been shooting at each other prior to this - its just that the broader press don't know or have cared enough in the past to report - and when reported, provide even a semblance of accuracy

[Officer of Engineers]

Jutland and the Tanker War. Neither Germany nor Iran lost their entire naval strength in their encounters ... but neither dared to venture forth again to challenge a superior foe ... the Argentinians another example.

Vietnam has a one shot navy. She had better win from the start ... and it does not look like she can.

[gf0012-aust]

Jutland and the Tanker War. Neither Germany nor Iran lost their entire naval strength in their encounters ... but neither dared to venture forth again to challenge a superior foe ... the Argentinians another example.

Vietnam has a one shot navy. She had better win from the start ... and it does not look like she can.

there have been a number of unreported incidents already where viet and chinese assets have fired shots at each other - I'm not suggesting at all that the viets will ratchet it up - but they have not been shy about shooting back when pushed.

they are not scared about shooting back - something I'm not sure china politicians realise.

this phony shooting war has been happening for the last 5 years (increasing tempo since china started resource surveys, but has been going on between china and other neighbours for the last 20+ years) - the press have only just discovered it

all the neighbours know that the response options change once china deploys an ARG in the next 5 years - so the chances of something happening rise accordingly.

the cynics would argue that this will go pear shaped by 2025 -

[Squirrel]

all the neighbours know that the response options change once china deploys an ARG in the next 5 years - so the chances of something happening rise accordingly.

Do you mean this in the USN realization of an ARG, or a China-specific variety? I guess, what do you see as a possible composition of forces?

[gf0012-aust]

Do you mean this in the USN realization of an ARG, or a China-specific variety? I guess, what do you see as a possible composition of forces?

I'm talking about a chinese ARG based around an asset that can deliver meaningful vertrep as well as fixed wing CAP around disputed islands. they're likely to do this sooner rather than later - esp as its more "useful" than having a small fleet of up to 80 (current numbers) ships providing "concentric" border management roles

its only a matter of time before they try to establish ground based facilities vis a vis the Falklands. they well know that all the locals can't replenish their own forces meaningfully, so they will continue to do everything they can to dislocate the regionals capacity to confront. the only forces from countries engaged in territorial dispute and able to challenge the PLAN beyond the protection of land based air (PLAAF) are the Sth Koreans and Japanese. Everyones current preferred best friend is the US via the 7th Fleet.


At some point the PLAN will do its own version of "The Great White Fleet" - even if its just driving around the pacific

[ace16807]

I'm talking about a chinese ARG based around an asset that can deliver meaningful vertrep as well as fixed wing CAP around disputed islands. they're likely to do this sooner rather than later - esp as its more "useful" than having a small fleet of up to 80 (current numbers) ships providing "concentric" border management roles

its only a matter of time before they try to establish ground based facilities vis a vis the Falklands. they well know that all the locals can't replenish their own forces meaningfully, so they will continue to do everything they can to dislocate the regionals capacity to confront. the only forces from countries engaged in territorial dispute and able to challenge the PLAN beyond the protection of land based air (PLAAF) are the Sth Koreans and Japanese. Everyones current preferred best friend is the US via the 7th Fleet.


At some point the PLAN will do its own version of "The Great White Fleet" - even if its just driving around the pacific

The PLAN is expected to support border management vis-a-vis SCS. Not replace MLE agencies. And there's no indication this will change in the future. Unless real shooting starts, the PLAN will sit back and serve as back-up for MLE agencies.

[gf0012-aust]

The PLAN is expected to support border management vis-a-vis SCS. Not replace MLE agencies. And there's no indication this will change in the future. Unless real shooting starts, the PLAN will sit back and serve as back-up for MLE agencies.

superficially that it so - but they already have a sub riding shotgun amongst all the MLE assets. they're also relocating 3 x nuke subs to the region.

the MLE assets aren't in a position to provide enough organic air to deal with a determined group of blockade runners. although with 80+ in loc they have enough to ram and push

at the moment the MLE's are just running racetracks