Will SARS make a come back?

[Double Edge]

What is the question?

There seems to be a lot of cases there considering the population.

When migrants returned we didn't get too many in Bangalore, they mostly came from other towns around the state. The cae load spiked there where until last week the capital city ranked 7th in the state for active cases. Bangalore has since risen to 4th place.

[Double Edge]

Back in May i was wondering how my state could catch Assam's low positivity of the time. We could double testing but people would say other states needed the kits. Now Assam has overtaken my state we seem to be chasing Assam (again).



What would be better still is a 7 day moving average plotted out over time.

[Oracle]

There seems to be a lot of cases there considering the population.

When migrants returned we didn't get too many in Bangalore, they mostly came from other towns around the state. The cae load spiked there where until last week the capital city ranked 7th in the state for active cases. Bangalore has since risen to 4th place.

Migrant workers who returned from Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra, AP etc have compounded the problem here. The Government says there is no community transmission, well a big FU to the government, coz' community transmission is ongoing now.

One more thing, lockdown started from Mar 24th, innit? (Mar 24th - Mar 31st), should have been the window when all migrant workers should have been returned home. Infections were much less then. Who bungled? Yep, our useless bureaucrats. People who don't get admission in top Engineering and medical colleges sit for IAS, yes, the sad truth, and they become policy makers. Will I ever see India rising on merit? Not in my lifetime I guess.

Yesterday, one guy who lives just opposite our lane was found Covid-19+, he came from Kolkata some days back. ASHA workers came in an ambulance and took him away.

[Double Edge]

Migrant workers who returned from Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra, AP etc have compounded the problem here. The Government says there is no community transmission, well a big FU to the government, coz' community transmission is ongoing now.

You health minister gave an interview recently, am curious to know what he said.

I would agree with the govt that there is no community transmission in either of our two states. We caught all or most of the migrants that returned as they arrived in buses & trains and tested them. A month later they make up over 70% of the total confirmed cases in my state and far higher in yours.

Not like either of our states has been slacking off when it comes to testing looking at the numbers.

So tell me then where is the community transmission. It's localised to certain areas. Delhi, Ahmedabad & Bombay.

One more thing, lockdown started from Mar 24th, innit? (Mar 24th - Mar 31st), should have been the window when all migrant workers should have been returned home. Infections were much less then. Who bungled? Yep, our useless bureaucrats. People who don't get admission in top Engineering and medical colleges sit for IAS, yes, the sad truth, and they become policy makers. Will I ever see India rising on merit? Not in my lifetime I guess.

It's not clear to me why there was a delay sending them back. Most likely the states would have refused as they did not have the test kits at the time to test all of them. So it was delayed for over a month until they were prepared to deal with them.

Had they sent them back earlier we'd have lost track of them and it would have been far worse than anything the Tablighis could have done.

Yesterday, one guy who lives just opposite our lane was found Covid-19+, he came from Kolkata some days back. ASHA workers came in an ambulance and took him away.

How did they know to test him. They knew where he came from, when and where he lived. That's diligence.

What surprised me about the returning migrants to my state is how many were asymptomatic, 95% and above



This has a huge bearing on recovery as the ICMR considers them infectious for only 4-5 days after infection. They let them out after 10 days and don't even test them. So there will be quite a few recoveries in the coming weeks.

[Oracle]

It's a F mess in Delhi. I will be posting in some days about how doctors and teachers are some of the most corrupt in India. And on top of that, they think they're entitled.

[Double Edge]

It's a F mess in Delhi. I will be posting in some days about how doctors and teachers are some of the most corrupt in India. And on top of that, they think they're entitled.

LNJP is why the supreme court pulled up the Delhi govt. Posted their judgement over a week back

Same problem with a hospital in Gujarat which their HC also pointed up in a very scathing judgement. See attached. People die because of a lack of critical care. Like the guy in the vid said, his father wanted oxygen and there was no one to administer it means his father will not make it.

When looking at the way Delhi handled this its not surprising.

They made the mistake of not testing primary contacts of positives.

They relaxed for Eid. My state declared a lock down that Sunday. They said at the time it would be followed every Sunday but no it was specifically to avoid people getting together for Eid because there was no lockdown the subsequent Sunday.

Their testing rates were not adequate as i pointed out earlier.

All this means case loads go up adding to this is the attitude of people not to comply with rules and then go blame the govt.

Nobody can tell me why the place is a mess. It not a poor place, its not like they don't have competent people.

Some point to the numerous seats of power. This causes finger pointing but no accountability.

The Governor of Delhi isn't a titular head like in other states. He does have powers.

The cops are under the centre.

The city council is under the BJP

Which leaves AAP as the state govt. Health is a state subject. The centre does not intervene unless a state is incompetent.

I can't understand how a govt that got 90% of the vote a few odd months ago behaves like this.

In any case Amit Shah has taken over now. It took NYC two months to recover from a positivity rate of 70 to under 2%.

So things can get better. They will have to be under lockdown for the next two months.

Not seeing any corruption here, seeing complete lack of administration and a callous attitude of not caring. Same thing in Gujarat.

Delhi, Bombay & Ahmedabad are text book examples of mismanagement.

They knew what was coming, they had the resources yet look at the delivery.

[Double Edge]

Abantika's reports on the crisis have been exceptional : )

How ‘overconfident’ Delhi made a mess of Covid fight, forcing Modi govt to pick up the pieces | The Print | Jun 20 2020

Officials, both in the central and state governments, said Delhi has been a victim of its own complacency. The Delhi government initially did a good job in ramping up health infrastructure and Covid testing, but later faltered. The biggest lapse, however, has been the failure, to do contact-tracing, said officials in the central government.

A senior official in the health ministry said Delhi dropped the ball on contact-tracing. “It is not as if they did not do it. But very little, very reluctantly, often after we flagged the issue. That has landed them here,” he added.

Top sources in various agencies of the Government of India involved in the Covid fight said it was pointed out to the Delhi government several times during review meetings that the small containment zones they were marking out cannot work unless there is door-to-door search and strict perimeter control.

“They (Delhi government) insisted on smaller zones, promised strict enforcement, but on the ground what they did was they developed some random methodology of checking on some 50-60 families around the place where the case is. In a congested area, it would mean about a 100-foot radius. It cannot work under any circumstances,” said an epidemiologist working with a government agency, requesting anonymity.

“Even during lockdown, our team went to areas like Chandni Mahal and Nabi Karim, and found it was business as usual. Lanes were narrow, 10-12 people live in one house and they were sitting outside their houses and chatting. Then, when the unlocking started, these people started mingling with those in other places and cases surged,” the epidemiologist added.

Lax enforcement of containment zones which were ineffective to start with and poor contact tracing.

“Coordination between central and state agencies was disjointed until recently. Multiplicity of decision-making authorities did not help.

Citizen engagement was lacking, which is surprising for a governance model that emerged from a people’s movement. All of these contributory factors need to be urgently addressed for creating the template of an efficient, equitable and empathetic response to Covid-19 or any other public health emergency,” he said.

A people's movement that cannot come together in times of crisis is no people's movement.

AAP won because of freebies or good old fashioned populism.

They are using antigen tests to increase the testing. Antigen tests are not as reliable as PCR tests. Which means they have to be double checked with PCR tests.

A senior health expert working with a government agency said: “Any positivity of over 10 per cent and you have to be testing more. That is clear. But Delhi’s problem perhaps was complacency.”

He compared New Delhi with New York when all the initial emphasis was on capacity creation and no attention was paid to contact-tracing.

“Look what happened there. Delhi is our New York. There are two aspects of this, public health and governance. They failed completely on public health. They did not enforce containment zones well, and failed on contact-tracing. They were foolish. We will be reviewing more closely in the coming days what went wrong,” he added.

Complacency

Delhi does not have the typical urban problem of lack of frontline health workers, who are the field-level staff that perform functions such as contact-tracing and checking on people isolated at home.

In cities like Mumbai and Ahmedabad, this has been a major hindrance in contact-tracing operations, according to central government officials.

According to the 2019 Rural Health Statistics, Delhi is among the rare states where there are more Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA) than required — 3,585 in position as on 31 March 2019, against the 1,174 required.

The location advantage of being a small city-state with borders with Uttar Pradesh and Haryana means there is no dearth of people willing to come to the national capital to work.

Yet, Delhi faltered on contact-tracing.

When you have adequate resources and still manage to screw it up. Delhi has three times the ASHA workers required for contact tracing yet could not get the job done >: |

It was only three days ago the Delhi government put in place a unified command system for Covid management with all officials in a district, regardless of seniority, reporting to the district magistrate.

Even on health infrastructure, the city government fell short.

Unified command system put in place three days ago !?! when this has been going on for over 3 months

[Double Edge]

Almost 3 months in the lockdown because of the pandemic, and Kejriwal couldn't gather enough beds, or have them in makeshift tents? This guy is worthless. A tent, with beds for 10K people could be built in 10 days, easily if the will is there. With resources that the Government have at its disposal, I can do it in 5 days, easy.

Yeah you could : )

“I would say they were overconfident. Looking at updates on the central dashboard and the availability of beds and isolation facilities, states are being constantly asked to stay prepared. They did very well on isolation beds, still are fairly well-off.

“But the isolation facilities were just not there. They just had to take over schools, stadia banquet halls like say Jammu and Kashmir had done. That is happening only now. Moreover, the multiplicity of authorities created additional hindrances,” said another senior official in the health ministry.

Your Himantha had all this in place back in April. But rest of the country is never going to hear about it.

Assam is 30+ million, Delhi is less than 20 million

Ya Assam is a bigger place but Delhi's numbers are way over the top for more densely populated.

[Oracle]

You health minister gave an interview recently, am curious to know what he said.

I would agree with the govt that there is no community transmission in either of our two states. We caught all or most of the migrants that returned as they arrived in buses & trains and tested them. A month later they make up over 70% of the total confirmed cases in my state and far higher in yours.

Not like either of our states has been slacking off when it comes to testing looking at the numbers.

So tell me then where is the community transmission. It's localised to certain areas. Delhi, Ahmedabad & Bombay.


It's not clear to me why there was a delay sending them back. Most likely the states would have refused as they did not have the test kits at the time to test all of them. So it was delayed for over a month until they were prepared to deal with them.

Had they sent them back earlier we'd have lost track of them and it would have been far worse than anything the Tablighis could have done.


How did they know to test him. They knew where he came from, when and where he lived. That's diligence.

What surprised me about the returning migrants to my state is how many were asymptomatic, 95% and above

[ATTACH]48715[/ATTACH]

This has a huge bearing on recovery as the ICMR considers them infectious for only 4-5 days after infection. They let them out after 10 days and don't even test them. So there will be quite a few recoveries in the coming weeks.

Himanta said that there are many cases in Guwahati with people who have no travel history, which means community transmission have started. He talked of locking down entire wards from where people have been found Covid-19 positive. Entire wards have now been sealed.

No, bureaucrats screwed it all up, the return of migrants. The government belongs to BJP, but bureaucrats run it.

Himanta Biswa Sarma says Guwahati to be locked down ward-wise

[Oracle]

Yeah you could : )

You're smiling, so I don't know what you've assumed. Anyway, my point is, if I have things at my disposal and get a chance of doing something good, would I not take the lead? Doing something good other than myself/family, for society, comes once in a lifetime. Everybody who gets the chance should take a shot at it.

Your Himantha had all this in place back in April. But rest of the country is never going to hear about it.

Assam is 30+ million, Delhi is less than 20 million

Ya Assam is a bigger place but Delhi's numbers are way over the top for more densely populated.

Himanta is an old war-horse of the Congress. Very efficient guy.

[Oracle]

Patanjali launches Ayurvedic Covid-19 medicine, claims 100% recovery

[Double Edge]

Himanta said that there are many cases in Guwahati with people who have no travel history, which means community transmission have started. He talked of locking down entire wards from where people have been found Covid-19 positive. Entire wards have now been sealed.

No, bureaucrats screwed it all up, the return of migrants. The government belongs to BJP, but bureaucrats run it.

Himanta Biswa Sarma says Guwahati to be locked down ward-wise

But did he say there is community transmission ? this term is pretty vague and is used when cases show up where the source is unknown.

You have caught all the migrants that returned. But there is one area where Assam need to step up its game. Contact tracing.

I am saying if contact tracing is done properly then you will know the source more often.



Assam is 15, mine is 47 but see Uttarakhand, Himachal, Meghalya

Assam does better than Delhi, Odisha, Telangana but it can do much better.

It comes as no surprise that Maha, Guj & Delhi with under 5 contacts per case exploded in infections !!



There has been a rise of cases in Bangalore recently and we've locked down five wards. What's interesting is the source of transmission for these cases. They've widened the net and started testing delivery boys, street vendors etc



ILI makes up the bulk of them. ILI means influenza like illness.

Nobody gets flu here or i've not heard of it but viral fever does occur.

[Oracle]

^ I'm saying community transmission has started in India. Why do we have to lap up what our politicians say all the time? Wasn't Dharavi a case of community transmission?

[Double Edge]

That is localised community transmission which ICMR already admitted to over a month back.

It's just a pointless term, meaning how does policy change after ?

Containment zones will spring up what else.

[Oracle]

That is localised community transmission which ICMR already admitted to over a month back.

It's just a pointless term, meaning how does policy change after ?

Containment zones will spring up what else.

Specially for you -> Guwahati to witness 14-day complete lockdown from June 28

It starts 30 mins from now, that is, from 7 PM, so in totality the lockdown is for 16 days.

Just came to know about it, got no booze. What life has become huh.

60 GST registrations linked to Chinese national from Wuhan unearthed

Chinese from Wuhan games the Indian system. Why don't I get this type of ideas. I would have needed 2-3 years, commit fraud worth millions, do a plastic surgery, immigrate to Canada, drink the Colonel's scotch, and watch Celine perform.