First round: April 23rd (this sunday)
Second round: May 7th (two weeks later)
Initially penned (sic) as Marine le Pen vs Francois Fillon, the campaigns soon turned that into Marine le Pen vs Emanuel Macron.
Major candidates are:
There's around a dozen candidates from smaller parties, the only one with some significance is Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who runs a right-wing platform seeking to position himself between Fillon and Le Pen and who could take a percent or two each from both of these two candidates.
More recently though - last two weeks - Le Pen's support has been steadily, slowly eroding while Melenchon's star has been rising beyond what anyone thought possible. Fillon has also been making some progress again, despite having been thought to pretty much have fallen back enough as to have dropped out of the major race.
Most recent projection:
Given no candidate is likely to get 50% in the first round we'll pretty much definitely see a second round (with the two top-scoring candidates). Predictions so far have shown that depending on the pairing in the second round, people will switch allegiance majorly; results for the second round are almost independent of the first round, since in any case around 50-60% of the electorate will chose a different candidate than in the first round. Prediction for all six possible combinations of the four front-runners:
Second round: May 7th (two weeks later)
Initially penned (sic) as Marine le Pen vs Francois Fillon, the campaigns soon turned that into Marine le Pen vs Emanuel Macron.
Major candidates are:
- Francois Fillon: Republicans; center-right. Fraught by corruption affair ("Penelopegate"). Pro-business politics aimed at clientele politics and a leaner government, aiming to dismiss half a million government employees.
- Benoit Hamon: Socialist Party; center-left. Winner of the primaries of President Hollande's ruling party after Hollande announced he would not run for a re-election. Considered to be left of Hollande.
- Emanuel Macron: "En Marche"; centrist protest party. Tries to portray himself as a businessman who'd kick off with all-new politics, trying to make people forget that he was previously Minister of the Economy for two years until about half a year ago. Effectively the right-side version of Hamon, except he runs on his own platform.
- Marine le Pen: National Front; ultra-right. Despite kicking her father's cronies out of the party - to secure her position - she pretty much continues the same politics. Successfully held back for quite a while, although as the campaign ramps up the rhethorics tend to mirror her father's racist platitudes.
- Jean-Luc Melenchon: "Unsubmissive France"; ultra-left. Former member of the Socialist Party, left because he considers it "too liberal" in the sense of too centrist. Previously ran in 2012 with support of the French Communist Party.
There's around a dozen candidates from smaller parties, the only one with some significance is Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who runs a right-wing platform seeking to position himself between Fillon and Le Pen and who could take a percent or two each from both of these two candidates.
More recently though - last two weeks - Le Pen's support has been steadily, slowly eroding while Melenchon's star has been rising beyond what anyone thought possible. Fillon has also been making some progress again, despite having been thought to pretty much have fallen back enough as to have dropped out of the major race.
Most recent projection:
Given no candidate is likely to get 50% in the first round we'll pretty much definitely see a second round (with the two top-scoring candidates). Predictions so far have shown that depending on the pairing in the second round, people will switch allegiance majorly; results for the second round are almost independent of the first round, since in any case around 50-60% of the electorate will chose a different candidate than in the first round. Prediction for all six possible combinations of the four front-runners:
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