UK pulling out of EU?

[cyppok]

Tom Scholes-Fogg: MPs debate Britain's EU membership

MPs debate Britain's EU membership
Posted: 24/10/11 02:35


Today Members of Parliament will debate Britain's membership of the European Union. They will then vote on whether the people of Britain should have a referendum to decide whether Britain should remain in or pull out of the EU.

The Labour Party and the Conservative Party are using the whips to force their MPs to vote against a referendum which could be particularly embarrassing for the Prime Minister David Cameron, if MPs vote in favour of the motion. Both parties should give their MPs a free vote in this important debate, already some 76 MPs including 60 Conservatives have said they will vote against the government in order to send a clear message to the Prime Minister that Britain does want a referendum. Whilst some Conservative MPs such as Stewart Jackson who is the PPS to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland have said they will resign their government positions, it is not yet known how many Labour MPs will go against the whip and vote in favour of a referendum.

Tony Blair 'deeply worried' Britain will leave EU via referendum - Yahoo! Finance UK

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said he is "deeply worried" that Britain will leave the European Union via a referendum.

Mr Blair also told a German newspaper that the UK's exit from the EU could be sparked by too much power being transferred to Brussels.

David Cameron said in July that it was a "perfectly honourable position" to call for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU - something polls show a majority of British people would vote to reject - but has resisted pulling the country out of his own accord because of fears it would harm UK interests.

I figure once France took away British farmers subsidies but did not reciprocate in reimbursement the UK started evaluating leaving. Lately a lot of bureaucratic malaise entered the small power contention into enforcing things over UK and economic powers within from banking, taxing, and general commerce (garlic tariff, and other aspects).

Does impact the Eurozone but from a market dominance import/export perspective and financial flows in Euros. Makes UK trully offshore since they won't remit Euro taxes while holding its' capital. The impetus of leavings shows others that it can be done and won't be as damaging (I assume so since Britain if it leaves will have some semblance of order on its side)...

Thoughts/Comments welcome

[kato]

I figure once France took away British farmers subsidies but did not reciprocate in reimbursement the UK started evaluating leaving.

We should have just kicked the UK out when Thatcher demanded that they're so special, they should be paying less than everyone else.

Makes UK trully offshore since they won't remit Euro taxes

Gee, except for those tolls. Because by leaving the EU, you're leaving the common market. Hence every single item getting exported to the UK being levied like any other export. Of course the Tories are portraying it along the lines of "imports from the EU have vastly reduced recently" - but that has more to do with the fact that British consumers haven't come past the economic crisis where they ran out of money.

[cyppok]

We should have just kicked the UK out when Thatcher demanded that they're so special, they should be paying less than everyone else.


Gee, except for those tolls. Because by leaving the EU, you're leaving the common market. Hence every single item getting exported to the UK being levied like any other export. Of course the Tories are portraying it along the lines of "imports from the EU have vastly reduced recently" - but that has more to do with the fact that British consumers haven't come past the economic crisis where they ran out of money.

The problem kato is that right now EU is practicing bait and switch. Originally most countries joined for customs and market access which has really stalled due to EU shifting focus to fiscal union. Granted it took decades for the bait and switch.

UK could demand to be granted full customs and market entry to the common market without being obligated to uphold the budget of the EU at large. Will it be given? A trade war even an asymmetric one hurts those most exposed on margin. EU is fully committed to currency injections without printing stopping cash-flow by UK trade disruption would hurt the UK, but how much more Insolvent would Eurobonds become for the weaker members?

If every country that signed up for fiscal compact that is not in the Eurozone begins to feel the full weight of burden for injecting capital into other countries insolvent debt you might end up with just the Eurozone in the common market. Furthermore my feeling is the bi-lateral trade treaties will be held up to take precedence upon exit. Ergo each individual country will choose to honor them or not.

I think there was a Rubicon crossed once Britain was snubbed after Sarkozy got their farm subsidies out but didn't hold up his end by keeping French ones and the common tariff. Essentially lying by limiting market entry from outside the EU to lower food costs but making sure barriers improved food producers in the common market but lower barriers in UK. After multiple attempts to close gaps on issues were rebuffed and the EU ship decided to simply dictate what the new rules would be for Financial, and other aspects of trade, the UK had no option but to make a threat they would actually go through.

[kato]

Originally most countries joined for customs and market access which has really stalled

In what way stalled? There is full market access between EU members. Otherwise we (Germany) wouldn't dominate the market everywhere throughout Europe, in particular in the Eurozone countries.

[snapper]

We should have just kicked the UK out when Thatcher demanded that they're so special, they should be paying less than everyone else..

It is so good to hear other Europeans don't want the British contribution of £52m per day!

Hence every single item getting exported to the UK being levied like any other export.

Except that you export far more to Britain than Britain does to the eurozone. Therefore any new tarrifs on trade with Britain will hurt European exporters far more than Britain.

[dave lukins]

It is so good to hear other Europeans don't want the British contribution of £52m per day!

"Over the past five years, Germany has become very powerful. Since Britain’s (hopefully temporary) economic difficulties, the German economy has emerged not only as the largest – but by far the largest – in the European Union. Consequentially, some have asked whether we are now entering a period of German hegemony".

Your thoughts on that Kato.;)

[kato]

therefore any new tarrifs on trade with Britain will hurt European exporters far more than Britain.

We're talking less than 20 billion pounds trade surplus for the Eurozone per year.

Your thoughts on that Kato.;)

Financial hegemony? We're not entering that, we've been in that for decades. The Franco-German engine and all that.

Otherwise, i'll point you at this article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/op...rdly.html?_r=0

[gunnut]

This time, Germany is taking over Europe the legal way...

[Tarek Morgen]

Except that you export far more to Britain than Britain does to the eurozone. Therefore any new tarrifs on trade with Britain will hurt European exporters far more than Britain.

That logic is flawed for several reasons:

While having a trade deficit is seldom great, simply reducing/stopping imports in itself is not a good thing. Less trade with the EU does not mean that Brits will suddenly buy only home made cars, it also means that the economy is loosing access to resources, tools, machines and other goods that are not available in the home market at the required amounts, prices & quality.


Nor would UK trade deficit mean that the EU would be hurt more than the UK. The EU would lose ONE trade partner. The UK would lose 26! Which would consist of over 55% of all it's ex and imports. While the TOTAL numbers of lost revenue might be higher on the EU side, this loss is carried and sharred across 450 million people, while an only slightly lower loss would affect only 60 million people in the UK, causing a much greater burden on the individual.

It is so good to hear other Europeans don't want the British contribution of £52m per day!*

Pray tell, what kind of math do you use to get this number?

Also the tale that the European project started as a mere free trade zone, that was slowly and secretly turned into a political union against the countries (esp. the UK) knowing or wishes is just a myth. Right from the start the aim was “to establish the foundations of an ever closer union“. Growing together, not just economical, but also political, fiscal and military have always been the goals, stated in pretty much every treaty negotiated and signed in over 5 years. This is like entering a bus, hearing the announcements about the next stops, seeing the map where the line is heading to and then screaming at the driver for ending up in the “wrong place”.

Or to make it simple, right now, the UK is Europe's Scotland.

[Doktor]

Guys you are talking in absolutes.

The truth is somewhere in between.

There wont be a ban for products, just tariffs and even that will be negotiated.

Considering the amounts, UK net contributions are ~EUR 5bn/year meaning nowhere close to 50+mn/day, but more like 1/4 of the said amount.

It all depends if and how all the process will be done.

[dave lukins]

Guys you are talking in absolutes.

The truth is somewhere in between.

There wont be a ban for products, just tariffs and even that will be negotiated.

Considering the amounts, UK net contributions are ~EUR 5bn/year meaning nowhere close to 50+mn/day, but more like 1/4 of the said amount.

It all depends if and how all the process will be done.

The latest figures I could find:

Clegg gives Cameron the nod to veto EU budget rise | Mail Online

[cyppok]

That logic is flawed for several reasons:


Nor would UK trade deficit mean that the EU would be hurt more than the UK. The EU would lose ONE trade partner. The UK would lose 26! Which would consist of over 55% of all it's ex and imports. While the TOTAL numbers of lost revenue might be higher on the EU side, this loss is carried and sharred across 450 million people, while an only slightly lower loss would affect only 60 million people in the UK, causing a much greater burden on the individual.


Also the tale that the European project started as a mere free trade zone, that was slowly and secretly turned into a political union against the countries (esp. the UK) knowing or wishes is just a myth. Right from the start the aim was “to establish the foundations of an ever closer union“.
Or to make it simple, right now, the UK is Europe's Scotland.

Budget control and trade access are two totally different things. As a free trade and customs union the EU works, once you add 4th layer of supranational bureaucracy it all breaks down since cross border regulations come into conflict with rules and regulations made up by that bureaucracy. Expecting someone to pay money when they specifically opted out of the currency is a bit absurd.

You are forgetting that every nation with their own currency will notice the asymmetric budgeting to prop up a 'foreign' currency. In some countries it could tip the scales in favor of following UK steps out.

All it takes is 1 country to show others that if you leave it won't be the end of the world and once another follows you get a compounding effect of burden sharing between fewer and fewer solvent actors for insolvent burdens.

The reality is once UK leaves a lot of trade can be switched to the pound vis a vis the London interbank market where as before it could have been denominated in euros. You also have to take into account that they will not remit foreign capital taxes the EU will want so to some degree the UK will become a more ironclad tax shelter for European capital. This may in some way mitigate the budget deficit imbalance particularly if they capitalize on it and make it a very focal point of their separation.

All you need afterwards is for the Scandinavians to leave and all of them including UK re-negotiating their ties fore free trade and customs union only.

[Doktor]

The latest figures I could find:

Clegg gives Cameron the nod to veto EU budget rise | Mail Online

They are talking gross contribution there, including the rebate (33%), which is paid by other EU members.

From here:

# The UK will contribute €12.1 billion to the 2012 budget (taking the rebate, which is paid by other European countries to the UK, is expected to be approximately €3.6 billion, into account).

# The EU will spend €6.7 billion in the UK in 2012.

The question the Brits should ask is are <€6bn/year worth as a membership fee, compared to £592bn revenues and £682bn expenditures in 2012.

[dave lukins]

They are talking gross contribution there, including the rebate (33%), which is paid by other EU members.

From here:



The question the Brits should ask is are <€6bn/year worth as a membership fee, compared to £592bn revenues and £682bn expenditures in 2012.

Obviously someone in the know does not like this proposed deal hence: ''Commission plans to change the way in which the UK receives its rebate - from a yearly amount to a lump sum of ?22.8 billion for the period from 2014 to 2020 - were rejected by the UK Treasury in July 2011''.

[cyppok]

Obviously someone in the know does not like this proposed deal hence: ''Commission plans to change the way in which the UK receives its rebate - from a yearly amount to a lump sum of ?22.8 billion for the period from 2014 to 2020 - were rejected by the UK Treasury in July 2011''.

The other aspect is "harmonization of fiscal services", if the UK has to remit transaction fees for European capital and it flees to a different jurisdiction it would be paying quiet a lot.

You also do not take into account tariff remittances that go to EU for goods that without those remittances would have been cheaper for the UK consumer, like garlic for example... but I am sure other goods come under that umbrella as well.
In addition all the extra regulation that comes out of Brussels has compliance costs while for the most part British law compliance is already in the system.

You also have no idea what the EU spends those money on if its EU bureaucrats and regulation enforcement then it really is not spending for the benefit of the UK public is it now...

My guess the overall cost is close to what UKIP claims ergo 60-70 billion pounds a year or so.
The precedent is the interesting factor if UK leaves whom is next?