As China eyes Arunachal Pradesh, is Delhi napping?

[Jay]

I always wanted to know something...what if India thrusted into Aksai Chin to take it back? What would happen and how would things result?

Terrain is pretty inaccessible and can be easily reinforced from Tibet and Xinjiang in the Chinese side.

[gf0012-aust]

Terrain is pretty inaccessible and can be easily reinforced from Tibet and Xinjiang in the Chinese side.

Plus they have their new multi lane highway in place - so they can back up their logistics concurrently by land.

[Jay]

Plus they have their new multi lane highway in place - so they can back up their logistics concurrently by land.

With an element of surprise both the highway and rail line can be pre-emptively bombed and rendered useless. With permafrost and other high altitude and cold, it may be hard to repair them. IAF has forward airfields near that area in J&K.....Pathankot, Srinagar and Udhampur.

May be Ray sahab can say whether we would be able to invade and hold that area after the initial air assault.

[gf0012-aust]

With an element of surprise both the highway and rail line can be pre-emptively bombed and rendered useless. With permafrost and other high altitude and cold, it may be hard to repair them. IAF has forward airfields near that area in J&K.....Pathankot, Srinagar and Udhampur.

May be Ray sahab can say whether we would be able to invade and hold that area after the initial air assault.

You need to make sure that you keep their logistics dislocated - and thats no mean feat as they have the advantage of being able to stage outside of nominal range.

logistics is always a/the critical key.

[Archer]

The GOI is not just pathetic, its beyond that when it comes to national security.

Though in their defence, it must be argued that surrounded by a ring of failed/failing states, its own internal security problems (Kashmir, sectarian Islam, NE insurgents and the f***ing Maoists), a conflict with China is the last thing India needs.

Yes, so make nice, keep smiling, take the jibes and insults and keep the powder dry. India's time will come, if not this decade, then the one after. But come it will.

[667medic]

The GOI is not just pathetic, its beyond that when it comes to national security.

Though in their defence, it must be argued that surrounded by a ring of failed/failing states, its own internal security problems (Kashmir, sectarian Islam, NE insurgents and the f***ing Maoists), a conflict with China is the last thing India needs.

Yes, so make nice, keep smiling, take the jibes and insults and keep the powder dry. India's time will come, if not this decade, then the one after. But come it will.

I am not sure of this. Do read this book by Garver called
Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century

He suggests that the only way India can ever have peace with China is by becoming a junior partner/brother. The manner in which India is behaving towards China definitely points in that direction....

[Archer]

When did I say India would have peace with the PRC? It cant- I agree with you. The PRC is a potent combination of Chinese nationalism combined with Marxist Leninist authoritarianism. Their wish is to dominate.

My point is that currently, India has way too many problems to ratchet up tensions with China. Its neighbours are a mess, its own internal situation needs to stabilize. India needs another two decades of uninterrupted development, and time to improve its economy, its living standards and deal with sores such as the Maoists, the J&K insurgency etc.

So common sense demands that it bide its time. Of course, the wimpish GOI is also to blame for not dealing with these internal problems in a suitable manner, and parties such as the Congress have in fact, created several of these issues and sustained them. The Commies inside India have also done their fair share to harm it from within and will continue to do so.

But there will be a time when the situation inside is stable enough for an India to mock at those who have mocked it- by making snide references to its "poverty", "caste system", "hindu extremists", or similar racist BS, that has always been used to stereotype a huge and diverse nation.

One can see the change already, todays Indians are not so patient with hagiography and corrupt leaders. Education and economic strength, plus the rising local MIC, will all combine to make Indians more self aware of themselves and their strengths and weaknesses.

So in that respect, I really dont think India will forever keep quiet and play nice nice with the PRC.

The PRC has always underestimated India and done more than its fair share of hostile actions, propping up Pakistan, attacking India, its constant diplomatic thuggery plus territory grab. The PRC, with a long tradition of rule via force and centralized leadership, only admires these attributes in other nations.

But despite all their efforts, India is still rolling along with its progress. And that authoritarian streak in the PRC polity is a long term weakness, both in terms of internal rule as well as cultivating external allies. As India rises, it will be cultivated by those who are challenged by the PRC, given how brazen the PRC is in showing off its might (anti sat test, anyone!) without any care for international repurcussions (all that junk in space lanes).

To sum it up- this is a long term race. The PRC may up the ante now, but over the long term, its only going to get worse for them.

[Archer]

Personality matters a lot as well when it comes to leadership. Manmohan Singh is a bureaucrat, well versed in economics and leadership of the economy, but an absolute wimp when it comes to strategy and security. The curse of India is that its politicians are all dotards, all in their 50's to 70's and many of them have grown up in the idealogical vacuum of Leftism and internationalism. The regional leaders otoh, are fixated on Rs, and more Rs and their regional rabble rousing.

So when confronted with a shrewd dictator- Musharraf, or for that matter, a ruthless group of elites used to weilding power- the PRC leadership, its no wonder that MMS chooses the soft path.

Be as it may, there is also the fact that India too has its steel frame, of bureaucrats, security personnel and decision makers who have successfully preserved India's independence during the Cold War, and thereafter.

They wont allow for the GOI to become a lapdog of the PRC. We've come too far for that.

The one key thing to do is to remove the commies from the decision making matrix and to isolate and trivialize them. Their interests are against India's national interests and all they have been useful for so far, is as foils and rabble rousers when India wishes to point to dissent within as the reason why it cant commit to some US plan which it isnt keen to go for.

India's best leader in the late twentieth century was PVN Rao- given how the Congress treated him, it should be clear what happens to capable leaders within that sycophantic party. Not that the NDA is all gems, the "poet" was the one who let his guard down at Kargil.

[roshan]

Personality matters a lot as well when it comes to leadership. Manmohan Singh is a bureaucrat, well versed in economics and leadership of the economy, but an absolute wimp when it comes to strategy and security. The curse of India is that its politicians are all dotards, all in their 50's to 70's and many of them have grown up in the idealogical vacuum of Leftism and internationalism.

I agree. India needs modern, younger leaders who arent afraid to take action. It needs nationalistic leaders from the far right of the political spectrum, not these stupid gandhiists, leftists and internationalists. I honestly cant believe that retarded looking people like Kalam and Manmohan Singh can make it into office. But since the time of Gandhi Indians have made a habit of choosing leaders who look retarded and say stupid and foolish things that make everyone feel good but bury the country in ****.

[667medic]

Just wish the whole Gandhi family disappears, would be the best thing for India. Rahul has proved that he is intent on pursuing votebank politics

[Archer]

I agree. I honestly cant believe that retarded looking people like Kalam and Manmohan Singh can make it into office. But since the time of Gandhi Indians have made a habit of choosing leaders who look retarded and say stupid and foolish things that make everyone feel good but bury the country in ****.

Careful there. Kalam is anything but retarded- the man is a committed Indian- a fraction of whose achievements, you and I would find it hard to match in our lifetimes. And if anything Kalam is a supporter of a strong defence, something which has him in the bad books of the communists. How dare an Indian muslim speak of India being invaded on account of a weak defence, thats communal. How dare an Indian Muslim be knowledgeable of hindu scripture- that makes him a RSS Plant...the hypocrisy is sickening. If anything, we need more Kalams and Ustad Bismillah Khans..
Similarly, MMS may be out of his depth on strategic issues, but he did play a decent role in Indias economic reforms.

Having said that, your overall point is correct- India was founded on Gandhian belief, and hence a tendency to be more holy than thou. It got a wake up call in 48, 62, 65, 71 and 99 but its still not enough. Gandhianism and negationism has meant that 90% of Indias elites shy away from even defending the country, even whilst they mouth plaudits to "brave soldiers", but talk about making arms...ooh, they start frothing at the mouth.

No matter how much terrorism, but till the Indian elites wake up to their own history and the need for a strong defence, we will keep getting rolled over by irrendist powers.

[Archer]

Just wish the whole Gandhi family disappears, would be the best thing for India. Rahul has proved that he is intent on pursuing votebank politics

Amen. The Congress can be compared to the Dems in the US, whereas the NDA are the GOP. But the Dems are not as overtaken by dynasty as the Congress is.

[Grim Reaper]

How would India react in any aggressive land grabs from China if it were to happen now? Do you think it would be a good idea and stand up to China and grab something they control to teach them a lesson in return?

[glyn]

How would India react in any aggressive land grabs from China if it were to happen now? Do you think it would be a good idea and stand up to China and grab something they control to teach them a lesson in return?

Are you sure that's wise? It could mean splitting your forces and just escalating the conflict. I don't see that as helpful.

[Officer of Engineers]

May be Ray sahab can say whether we would be able to invade and hold that area after the initial air assault.

What's the point?