Food or Fuel

[zraver]

Zraver, this is not the technology issue and therefore it cannot be resolved with technology. Technology and Energy are two different things that are often mixed. If you have a 5 pound cake and you want to eat it,what is the usage of developing super high tech nano knife that will enable you to cut it into perfect slices, you still have a 5 pound cake that you want to eat. And you can eat it with your bare hands,ordinary kitchen knife or nano knife, no matter what way (the technology) you use it is still 5 pound cake (finite resource) that will end up in your stomach. Technology can manage things more or less effectively but in order to manage things it needs things to manage and that is the issue.

But its not a 5 pound cake its an effectively infinite reosurce. What is unrecoverable today, is tommorrows recoverable reserves. What today is uneconomical to convert is tommorrows next source of oil.

Net energy, the energy invested for energy returned. If you have a system built up on cheap energy, designed from the ground up to use that cheap energy, removing the cheap energy will remove the base and thus lead to collapse of such system. And since cheap energy is built in every aspect of such system, it will lead to systemic collapse. If you want to produce renewable energy, you can but it will cost more that the non renewable energy source and that will reflect on the financial system that is also built up on cheap energy. The financial system will react by tightening the credit line which will decrease the economic ability for doing things. Less economic activity means less wealth creation, less wealth creation translates to less freedom to explore new ways and possibilities which than lead to even more scarcity which even more enforces feedback until the whole thing grinds to a halt. Which is what is happening right now. You cannot have a man made renewable energy resource and expect same kind of economic growth done with non renewable energy source.
As far as world conventional peak oil timing, it happened, in June 2005.

Net energy does not rely on just one factor. Higher pump prices spur investment in other areas to offset the increase. Biofuels as currently envisioned are a waste, but fuels from biomass is not. We also have tar sales, oil shale, coal to oil, and as yet undiscovered reserves of oil. The biggest factors in oil price is not the cost of recovery, but the cost of politics and profit. Until recently oil did not keep pace with inflation, and might still be behind the inflation curve.

Nor did we hit peak oil in 2005. We will really hit peak oil when demand expressed as price exceeds supply and the global economy reflects this. The drop noticed in 2005 did not come with a similar drop in the globes ecnomic activity. Even the 2007 crisis had more to do with western money schemes than competition for fuel.

[Versus]

But its not a 5 pound cake its an effectively infinite reosurce. What is unrecoverable today, is tommorrows recoverable reserves. What today is uneconomical to convert is tommorrows next source of oil.



Net energy does not rely on just one factor. Higher pump prices spur investment in other areas to offset the increase. Biofuels as currently envisioned are a waste, but fuels from biomass is not. We also have tar sales, oil shale, coal to oil, and as yet undiscovered reserves of oil. The biggest factors in oil price is not the cost of recovery, but the cost of politics and profit. Until recently oil did not keep pace with inflation, and might still be behind the inflation curve.

Nor did we hit peak oil in 2005. We will really hit peak oil when demand expressed as price exceeds supply and the global economy reflects this. The drop noticed in 2005 did not come with a similar drop in the globes ecnomic activity. Even the 2007 crisis had more to do with western money schemes than competition for fuel.

What is effectively infinite resource?Oil?Fusion?

Let me see if I get this one right.
In the presence of cheap land based oil drilling it is not economically viable to drill in the ocean depths. Therefore what was uneconomic than becomes economic when price go up. When the price goes up to the next level it will be economical to process tar sands,oil shale, coal to oil etc. As prices go up, that creates more wealth that is than used for exploration and technology breakthroughs,right?

It doesn't work that way.

[Doktor]

What is effectively infinite resource?Oil?Fusion?

Sun, electricity obtained through renewable resources?

Let me see if I get this one right.
In the presence of cheap land based oil drilling it is not economically viable to drill in the ocean depths. Therefore what was uneconomic than becomes economic when price go up. When the price goes up to the next level it will be economical to process tar sands,oil shale, coal to oil etc. As prices go up, that creates more wealth that is than used for exploration and technology breakthroughs,right?

It doesn't work that way.

What way does it work?
If the predictions (speculations) are there is cheap oil in vast resources, what would be the oil price?

[Versus]

There is 245 million cars in the US. If they were to be converted into the electric cars by some miracle and that they are all like Tesla Roadster which uses 135Wh/km. It costs $109.000 US dollars. Multiply the 135Wh/km with 245 million or multiply $109.000 US Dollars with 245 million. How on Earth you are going to generate that much electricity? You expect to keep up the modern city with wind turbines and solar panels? What is the average electric consumption of New York per day?

Simply it is not possible and it is not going to happen.
What will work?
These...:)

[Doktor]

I am not saying the alternatives are a match. How many of those^^ had the first Otto engine? What was the fuel consumption? Thank you.

As I was saying in my previous posts, I am not much into green, I am more concerned that we are dependent on few countries and that oil will eventually vanish.

[Versus]

I am not saying the alternatives are a match. How many of those^^ had the first Otto engine? What was the fuel consumption? Thank you.

As I was saying in my previous posts, I am not much into green, I am more concerned that we are dependent on few countries and that oil will eventually vanish.

I am not a tree huger either. Don't get me wrong, I am not cheering up for this course of events but I think that most likely I am right. And I understand why so many people place their faith in technology and progress. As far as they can remember, human innovation and technology was making their life easier, so there is no reason to doubt that the technology will come to rescue now. I don't share that point of view for one simple reason and that is the SCALE of this system supported by oil and oil byproducts. It simply doesn't scale at the current level. I mean, humans lived before coal and oil, there is no reason to think that living without cars,cable tv, internet or ipads is the end of the world. It isn't and upcoming new way of life could prove to be more rewarding than this one. The sooner the simplification of society and systems starts the less damage it will be.

[Doktor]

The change of the old bulbs with new ones went pretty smooth :D

On the serious side, I understand what you are saying, but I didn't hear any of the advocates of the new techs saying you will wake up tomorrow and the oil dependence will disappear. It's a process that has to start, better sooner then later.

[zraver]

What is effectively infinite resource?Oil?Fusion?

Oil-land, shallow depth, deep water, oil sands, oil shale, coal to oil, biomass to oil (which is renewable)

Let me see if I get this one right.
In the presence of cheap land based oil drilling it is not economically viable to drill in the ocean depths. Therefore what was uneconomic than becomes economic when price go up. When the price goes up to the next level it will be economical to process tar sands,oil shale, coal to oil etc. As prices go up, that creates more wealth that is than used for exploration and technology breakthroughs,right?

It doesn't work that way.

Actually it does, a small group of deep water wells might not be economically viable in competing with land based oil. However increasing the volume of deep water extraction ie increasing the supply will result in lower prices so long as supply can outpace demand. How much a new technology costs bears little relation to its price as a percentage of disposable income when it is a mature technology.

Take for example books, if I had a collection of several hundred volumes in 1011AD I would be richer than most kings, yet today in 2011 my collection is at best modest. Same goes for almost anything. Technology has repeatedly provided the means to take a small pie and turn it into a bakery.

[Versus]

Oil-land, shallow depth, deep water, oil sands, oil shale, coal to oil, biomass to oil (which is renewable)



Actually it does, a small group of deep water wells might not be economically viable in competing with land based oil. However increasing the volume of deep water extraction ie increasing the supply will result in lower prices so long as supply can outpace demand. How much a new technology costs bears little relation to its price as a percentage of disposable income when it is a mature technology.

Take for example books, if I had a collection of several hundred volumes in 1011AD I would be richer than most kings, yet today in 2011 my collection is at best modest. Same goes for almost anything. Technology has repeatedly provided the means to take a small pie and turn it into a bakery.

So you are dismissing the US Army analysis from 2010 and the German Military analysis also from 2010? Those analysis and reports are not true?


I understand what you are trying to say, the thing I don't agree with is the time. There will be no time for the technology to mature. I think that we passed the point of no return and that we are looking at the crash scenario, rather than a rough crash landing.

[zraver]

So you are dismissing the US Army analysis from 2010 and the German Military analysis also from 2010? Those analysis and reports are not true?

The US military said might, not will decrease. As some fields decline, others come on line and so long as supply outpaces demand the cost will remain relatively low. The big bottle necks are not the production of crude, but refining capacity and the dollar. US oil prices are rising in part because the dollar is falling in value. However that should translate into cheaper oil for users of other currencies that are rising against the dollar. However if there is a major decline in middle eastern production, the US will be much better off than Europe. The US refining base is geared towards gasoline production and to use heavier forms of crude. Europe needs lighter crude to produce the amount of diesel it uses so a ME decline will hurt Europe more since they can't readily buy heavier crude and make use of it.

I understand what you are trying to say, the thing I don't agree with is the time. There will be no time for the technology to mature. I think that we passed the point of no return and that we are looking at the crash scenario, rather than a rough crash landing.

I dissagree, until global demand for oil outstrips the combined global ability to provide supply (production and refining) there will be no crash.

[Parihaka]

What will work?
These...:)

Horses require fuel too.;)

[zraver]

Horses require fuel too.;)

and compete even more directly for staple crops and farm acreage than biofuels since they are biofueled.

[USSWisconsin]

Maybe the government can subsidize horses, to reduce dependence on foreign oil ... along with that we can have population culling to enable an agrarian lifestyle for the selectees.

[highsea]

We already subsidize horses. Wild Pony Act and crap like that.

The planet's producing oil all the time.

But it's true we will run out, if we don't start looking for more. Well, not run out- you can't run out. But it will get really expensive.

[zraver]

Maybe the government can subsidize horses, to reduce dependence on foreign oil ... along with that we can have population culling to enable an agrarian lifestyle for the selectees.

Luckily new technologies are turning Brazil into a bread basket country. Water mismanagement in the US is posing a severe and growing problem to US agriculture.