The rationale for contact tracing in the US
Contact tracing could help avoid another lockdown. Can it work in the U.S.? | Stat | May 29 2020
What is a contact ?
I find this definition interesting, it means to get infected that 15 mins is the minimum amount of time one requires to be exposed
https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/...28752516706304
The why & why not for contact tracing in the US. The way he opens the debate make you think contact tracing will be a fools errand in the US.
Contact tracing could help avoid another lockdown. Can it work in the U.S.? | Stat | May 29 2020
Contact tracing does not need to be perfect to make a serious dent in case counts. If the goal is to keep the number of people getting sick below the point where hospitals are overwhelmed — not to eliminate the virus — not every contact needs to be found and not every person needs to follow recommendations.
If health officials can identify half of symptomatic cases of Covid-19 (some people don’t show symptoms), and trace 40% of their contacts, “the ensuing reduction in transmission allows the reopening of economic activities while attaining a manageable impact on the health care system,” a preprint of a modeling study found, relying on transmission dynamics in the Boston area.
If tracing resources are limited, focusing on burgeoning clusters of cases can also be more impactful than taking aim at tendrils of spread, experts say.
“We’re not trying to get rid of Covid-19 altogether — that would be great, but probably unrealistic,” said infectious disease epidemiologist Emily Gurley of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
“But even if we can’t stop all transmission, it’s still a really important effort to keep case counts low.”
If health officials can identify half of symptomatic cases of Covid-19 (some people don’t show symptoms), and trace 40% of their contacts, “the ensuing reduction in transmission allows the reopening of economic activities while attaining a manageable impact on the health care system,” a preprint of a modeling study found, relying on transmission dynamics in the Boston area.
If tracing resources are limited, focusing on burgeoning clusters of cases can also be more impactful than taking aim at tendrils of spread, experts say.
“We’re not trying to get rid of Covid-19 altogether — that would be great, but probably unrealistic,” said infectious disease epidemiologist Emily Gurley of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
“But even if we can’t stop all transmission, it’s still a really important effort to keep case counts low.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that in the case of Covid-19, a contact is someone who spent at least 15 minutes within 6 feet of a case, starting two days before that person started feeling sick.
https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/...28752516706304
The why & why not for contact tracing in the US. The way he opens the debate make you think contact tracing will be a fools errand in the US.
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