Ordinary flu infected 40 million people last year and killed 30-60k (don't really know how many, impossible to know either number exactly).
Even at .7% death rate, which is, I think, the South Korean estimate, you only need 850k people to contract it.
Will we get to 850k? Probably. Singapore seems to have done a good job of controlling it, China apparently controlled it by shutting down an area more populated than the entire West Coast of the US and plunging their economy into insta-depression. Italy's cases are out-of-control. We're doing an even worse job than Italy, so we might have cases double every 7 days, which means we would hit 1 million infected by Memorial Day, maybe Father's Day if we're lucky.
However, don't you worry. If it's actually THAT bad, we'll find out next month when ICUs hit capacity, hospitals run out of employees, and we call out the National Guard to enforce the Seattle quarantine.
Hopefully warm weather, limited quarantine, and obsessive hand-washing limits the spread so we can ride out this season and prepare for 2020-2021. After that, it's going to die out and just become an endemic childhood disease with sporadic outbreaks.
Even at .7% death rate, which is, I think, the South Korean estimate, you only need 850k people to contract it.
Will we get to 850k? Probably. Singapore seems to have done a good job of controlling it, China apparently controlled it by shutting down an area more populated than the entire West Coast of the US and plunging their economy into insta-depression. Italy's cases are out-of-control. We're doing an even worse job than Italy, so we might have cases double every 7 days, which means we would hit 1 million infected by Memorial Day, maybe Father's Day if we're lucky.
However, don't you worry. If it's actually THAT bad, we'll find out next month when ICUs hit capacity, hospitals run out of employees, and we call out the National Guard to enforce the Seattle quarantine.
Hopefully warm weather, limited quarantine, and obsessive hand-washing limits the spread so we can ride out this season and prepare for 2020-2021. After that, it's going to die out and just become an endemic childhood disease with sporadic outbreaks.
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