Schumer's Shutdown

[zraver]

For zraver. We are not being attacked by an army. What we have is a few here and a dozen there sneaking in on a constant basis. We have the technology to know when and where this is happening. All we need to do is slow them down so the border patrol has time to stop them before they are 10 miles north of the border. A good wall is perfect for that.

Exactly, plus a good wall forces the not so desperate to stay put and every one else to waste more resources and time to go to the ends where crossing the border isn't the end game but no they have to spend more time and money to get to the transportation network and thus there are fewer easy avenues for movement.

[zraver]

It's not as if this sentiment is recent, or the result of something just noticed, it has existed with regards to immigration, illegal or otherwise, on the southern border since the 1930s, beginning with the deportation of up to 2 million Mexicans during the Great Depression.

Past immigration went in generational cycles. A wave came in, the door closed, immigrants assimilated, the door re-opened. We've now had nearly 3 generations of migration without pause and no real breather to assimilate. Its leading to the ethnic balkanization of the country.

[zraver]

for now...until 8 February, when this starts up again.

Nope, Schumer caved, he's gonna get roasted by the hard left but he shot his bolt. Now its all about damage control, Trump and the GOP won. Jeff Greenfeild's article in Politico is telling. The Shutdown was not playing well for the Dems in red states that had blue senators and might actually help the GOP keep seats in deep blue California due to the jungle primary system. He'll get DACA, but Trump gets the wall and an end to the Visa Lottery system and chain migration. Staus quo ante bellum excpet for the bad press and intraparty fight he sparked. Now its time for the Dem civil war to come into the open.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ve-2018-216488

[astralis]

Nope, Schumer caved, he's gonna get roasted by the hard left but he shot his bolt. Now its all about damage control, Trump and the GOP won. Jeff Greenfeild's article in Politico is telling. The Shutdown was not playing well for the Dems in red states that had blue senators and might actually help the GOP keep seats in deep blue California due to the jungle primary system. He'll get DACA, but Trump gets the wall and an end to the Visa Lottery system and chain migration. Staus quo ante bellum excpet for the bad press and intraparty fight he sparked. Now its time for the Dem civil war to come into the open.

not sure how you got any of that from what happened.

Dems took CHIP off the table and extracted a public promise from McConnell (which is worth nothing, as Collins has found out, but still...). they gave nothing in return past another 3 weeks.

nothing about the wall, there's no end to the visa lottery system, etc, in this round.

and if McConnell squelches or the GOP House can't accept a Senate-brokered compromise, then, well, 8 February it starts up again.

yeah, there's some pissed off immigration activists right now but AFAIK they're not going to do anything that will screw up Dem leverage on the next round of negotations.

the overall contours of the deal haven't changed.

[zraver]

not sure how you got any of that from what happened.

Dems took CHIP off the table and extracted a public promise from McConnell (which is worth nothing, as Collins has found out, but still...). they gave nothing in return past another 3 weeks.

nothing about the wall, there's no end to the visa lottery system, etc.

and McConnell squelches or the GOP House can't accept a Senate-brokered compromise, then, well, 8 February it starts up again.

yeah, there's some pissed off immigration activists right now but AFAIK they're not going to do anything that will squelch Dem leverage on the next round of negotations.

the overall contours of the deal haven't changed.

We will see, Schumer folded like a wet sack for a reason.

[Ironduke]

Past immigration went in generational cycles. A wave came in, the door closed, immigrants assimilated, the door re-opened. We've now had nearly 3 generations of migration without pause and no real breather to assimilate. Its leading to the ethnic balkanization of the country.

Net migration from Mexico has been negative since around 2009. Which countries is it that migration from is the the cause of this so-called ethnic balkanization you speak of? Or is it that Mexicans aren't leaving in even greater numbers, that they're not leaving fast enough?

When, specifically, did the doors close, and for what reason?

[astralis]

We will see, Schumer folded like a wet sack for a reason.

actually, he did quite well to walk away with CHIP -right now-.

that's not to say he's some genius negotiator or something. he was stupid to publicly state that he talked to Trump about funding the wall in its entirety. he did that to make Trump look bad, but it also shifted the terms of the negotiations. other Dems have talked about this now too. Pelosi and Dems in safe liberal seats are screaming bloody murder, but i doubt that will do much now that the cat is out of the bag.

so in the next round of negotiations, the GOP -should- be able to demand full wall funding because it's now known that the Dems can stomach that.

[zraver]

actually, he did quite well to walk away with CHIP -right now-.

Chip wasn't a concession it was already there. He conceded he will fund the wall which is an utter catipulation.

that's not to say he's some genius negotiator or something. he was stupid to publicly state that he talked to Trump about funding the wall in its entirety. he did that to make Trump look bad, but it also shifted the terms of the negotiations. other Dems have talked about this now too. Pelosi and Dems in safe liberal seats are screaming bloody murder, but i doubt that will do much now that the cat is out of the bag.

so in the next round of negotiations, the GOP -should- be able to demand full wall funding because it's now known that the Dems can stomach that.

He shut the government down and got nothing but what was already on offer and per you is now conceding to funding the wall. Thats defeat.

[zraver]

Net migration from Mexico has been negative since around 2009. Which countries is it that migration from is the the cause of this so-called ethnic balkanization you speak of? Or is it that Mexicans aren't leaving in even greater numbers, that they're not leaving fast enough?

When, specifically, did the doors close, and for what reason?

The Democratic Party is full tilt on dividing America up by race and class to pit X against Y, and both against A until B becomes the new issue. DEms had utter and complete control in 09 and did nothing about immigration or legalizing the DACA crowd, nor did they do anything about criminal justice reform, the min wage etc. All they did was pass a massive tax bill that took over the health care industry and ruined it for the middle class.

[Ironduke]

The Democratic Party is full tilt on dividing America up by race and class to pit X against Y, and both against A until B becomes the new issue. DEms had utter and complete control in 09 and did nothing about immigration or legalizing the DACA crowd, nor did they do anything about criminal justice reform, the min wage etc. All they did was pass a massive tax bill that took over the health care industry and ruined it for the middle class.

So there's a Democratic conspiracy to destroy America?

[zraver]

So there's a Democratic conspiracy to destroy America?

To balkanize it for political gain certainly.

[Ironduke]

To balkanize it for political gain certainly.

So net migration from Mexico has been negative since around 2009, meanwhile, overall deportations reached their highest levels during the Obama administration. The number of people illegally crossing the southern border is down around something like 75% this decade compared to last.

The reality here just doesn't square with the proclamations of the prophets of doom that have been bandying around Trump's immigration narrative.

Also, when did the doors close, and why? Besides overtly racist Asian exclusion acts, the only door I can see that was closed was the period from 1921-1965.

[astralis]

He shut the government down and got nothing but what was already on offer and per you is now conceding to funding the wall. Thats defeat.

shrug, the final outcome matters more than the tactics. if the Dems get DACA at the end of all this, that is a win in my book. i said earlier that given this administration and Congress, the scale of the immigration deal that they're talking about isn't hugely significant-- and DACA would be the largest part of it.

the wall is just throwing money at a problem-- a foolish way of throwing money, IMO, but not that big a deal in the scheme of things. pretty sure given the expected build times, lawsuits, etc, it'll end up being at best a half-constructed waste of money when Trump gets kicked out in '20. we threw away far more money in stupid $hit like FCS.

if Dems walk away from Feb 8/a settled budget without DACA in hand, then yes, i will concede it is a defeat.

[zraver]

shrug, the final outcome matters more than the tactics. if the Dems get DACA at the end of all this, that is a win in my book. i said earlier that given this administration and Congress, the scale of the immigration deal that they're talking about isn't hugely significant-- and DACA would be the largest part of it.

the wall is just throwing money at a problem-- a foolish way of throwing money, IMO, but not that big a deal in the scheme of things. pretty sure given the expected build times, lawsuits, etc, it'll end up being at best a half-constructed waste of money when Trump gets kicked out in '20. we threw away far more money in stupid $hit like FCS.

if Dems walk away from Feb 8/a settled budget without DACA in hand, then yes, i will concede it is a defeat.

They already had DACA, the sticking points were the wall, chain migration and the Visa Lottery. They wanted a clean DACA so they could filibuster immigration reform, they've lost that now.

[DOR]

Your history is off. The Huns are often considered to be a part of the Northern Hsiung-nu/Xiongnu. They went west around under pressure from the Norther Wei

Simple Wiki search …
“The Huns were a nomadic people who lived in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia between the 4th century AD and the 6th century AD.”

“In the 18th century, the French scholar Joseph de Guignes became the first to propose a link between the Huns and the Xiongnu people, who were northern neighbors of China in the 3rd century BC. [that’s 700-900 years earlier]. Since Guignes’ time, considerable scholarly effort has been devoted to investigating such a connection. However there is no scholarly consensus on a direct connection between the dominant element of the Xiongnu and that of the Huns.”

It goes on to say Hun pressure from the East may have contributed to the collapse of the Western Roman Empire, but nothing links the Huns and Xiongnu.

Even more to the point, the Xiongnu moving west hundreds of years before the Great Wall was built ... because some idiot said “Let’s build a big, beautiful wall!” ? ... didn't cause the fall of the Roman Empire in the 5th century.

Don't try to tell me about Chinese history, especially if you can't be bothered to do any real research.