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  • Welcome to 1947 . . .

    Citizenship question to be put back on the 2020 Census for first time in 70 years

    USA TODAY: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...sus/461044002/

    The Commerce Department is reinstating a citizenship question to the 2020 Census for the first time in decades, a move that some arguewill lead to an undercount of minorities living in the United States.

    The U.S. Census Bureau counts the total number of people in the country — not the total number of citizens — every 10 years. Though it usually doesn't ask about a person's citizenship status, the Justice Department asked the agency late last year to include the question. It is the first time the government has done that in 70 years.

    The Census count is used to redraw congressional districts, so it can affect the makeup of Congress, and to determine where federal, state and local funds will be used to build new schools, roads, health care facilities, child-care centers and senior centers. It also forms the basis of countless government and academic studies that drive public policy decisions and legislation from Washington, D.C., to statehouses and city halls.

    In a statement released Monday night, the Commerce Department said the question was being added to help enforce the Voting Rights Act. The department pointed out that previous Census surveys before 1950 consistently asked citizenship questions.

    Critics were quick to blast the department's justification, however, saying the move was designed to undercount immigrants and minorities.
    Former attorney general Eric Holder, now with the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said Tuesday morning that he would sue the administration to block the question from the Census. He said asking about citizenship has nothing to do with voting rights.

    "Make no mistake – this decision is motivated purely by politics," Holder said. "In deciding to add this question without even testing its effects, the Administration is departing from decades of census policy and ignoring the warnings of census experts."

    In recent weeks, congressional lawmakers, mayors and civil rights activists have ramped up efforts to urge federal officials to reject the question and have called on Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to turn down the request.

    “This is not the time to parachute in and try to throw something in at the last minute, particularly something so incendiary that is likely to impact people’s willingness to participate," said Terry Ao Minnis, director of Census and Voting Programs at Asian Americans Advancing Justice.

    Minnis and other opponents say adding the question is unnecessary and will lead to an inaccurate count because some people may be afraid to fill out the form.
    On March 15, a group of 10 U.S. senators sent a letter to John Gore, the acting assistant attorney general, asking him about his involvement in originating the request for the Census Bureau to add the citizenship question and what role the White House and other entities had played.

    The senators wrote: "We are deeply troubled not just by the request to add a citizenship question, but by the impact that such a question would have on the accuracy on the 2020 Census."

    They wrote they are concerned that such a question would "depress participation among immigrants and those who live in mixed-status households."

    Late Monday, Vanita Gupta, president and CEO of The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, issued a statement, saying: "This untimely, unnecessary, and untested citizenship question will disrupt planning at a critical point, undermine years of painstaking preparation, and increase costs significantly, putting a successful, accurate count at risk.

    "The question is unnecessarily intrusive and will raise concerns in all households – native- and foreign-born, citizen and non-citizen – about the confidentiality of information provided to the government and how government authorities may use that information," the statement added.

    Some supporters of adding the question counter that it’s a modest change and say the opposition is exaggerated.

    “The Trump administration is simply trying to get accurate information on the American population,’’ Mike Gonzalez, a senior fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, wrote in an op-ed in USA TODAY last month. “It’s not new; previous Censuses have asked this question. Hostility to this limited reform is overblown, though unfortunately to be expected."

    The agency has until March 31 to submit Census questions to Congress.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

    Comment


    • One of the reasons I'm no longer a Republican. The sheer and massive hypocrisy on the issue of fiscal discipline. I never was a social conservative, and this is one of those legs that have been kicked out, where my disagreement with policy is a matter of principle.

      The US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week

      Uncle Sam needs to borrow a ton of money this week — in the middle of a fight with its biggest creditor.

      The United States plans to sell about $294 billion of debt, according to the Treasury Department. That's the highest for a week since the record set during the 2008 financial crisis.

      Federal revenue is declining because of President Trump's tax cuts, so the government needs to borrow more to make ends meet. At the same time, Washington's borrowing costs have climbed rapidly in recent months.
      http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/27/inve...ury/index.html
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

      Comment


      • Originally posted by DOR View Post
        Citizenship question to be put back on the 2020 Census for first time in 70 years
        If there's any funny business by Republicans on enumeration during the 2020 Census, there will be a huge Supreme Court fight over this. If this were to prove to be the case, I predict a 5-4 decision with Roberts being the swing vote either one way or the other.

        Article 1, Section 2 of the Constitution:
        "Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States ... according to their respective Numbers ... . The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years."
        The Constitution makes no mention of citizenship being the criteria for enumeration, it only makes mention of "respective Numbers". In an enumeration fight scenario, it'll come down to whether the Court decides whether citizens alone, or all persons, comprise "respective Numbers".
        Last edited by Ironduke; 27 Mar 18,, 20:42.
        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

        Comment


        • I'm more or less in agreement with you, but the political economy of "starve the beast" is more attractive than the political economy of raising taxes to then support increased spending. Like, the reason I'm concerned with the deficit is because it's just politically papering over hard choices that are just going to result in cutting my services or increasing taxes down the line: if the Dems want to "fix" this by taxing more today, it's "six of one, half a dozen of the other. "

          The ultimate issue is the total spending level, not today's tax or deficit.

          The bigger problem (from my POV) is that "starve the beast" is really starving non-defense discretionary spending, rather than transfer spending programs.
          "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

          Comment


          • Ironduke,

            I doubt the intention is to adjust representation in the House. More in keeping with current Administration ideology would be to under-count poorer people so as to reduce allocations to the social safety net. Congressional collaborators don't seem to have a problem with this, as yet.

            In other words, core GOPer values: let them starve, freezing in the dark.

            = = = = =

            GVChamp,

            I disagree with the notion of ramping up the national debt via economically useless tax cuts for the rich. Once Congress has voted to spend money on a particular program, those who disagree have two honorable options: garner the votes to overturn the decision, or resign in protest.

            Under-funding an existing mandate is the chicken-shit approach. The fix is to tax appropriately, and if you pay attention to where the money comes from, you’ll see that the big under-payers of late are corporations.

            US Federal Tax Receipts
            Percent Share received from:
            _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1960s _ _ 1970s_ _ 1980s_ _ 1990s_ _ 2000s_ _ 2010s
            Personal taxes _ _ _ _41.4% _ 46.0%_ _50.9% _ _51.2% _ _50.7% _ 51.1%
            Tax on production _ _ 39.1% _ 37.7%_ _36.6% _ _35.9% _ _36.7% _ 35.9%
            Corporate taxes _ _ _ 19.4% _ _16.2%_ _12.4% _ _12.7% _ _12.2% _ 13.0%
            Other _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _0.1% _ _0.2%_ __0.2% _ __0.3% _ _ _0.5% _ _0.0%

            And, if anyone thinks taxes on production are another corporate tax, add those to corporate taxes and you’ll discover that the share of the two combined drops by 10 percentage points over time, just as the share of personal taxes rises by . . . 10 percentage points.

            Coincidence?
            I think not.
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • I don't see the problem with under-funding an existing mandate instead of overturning said mandate. It's just one more political maneuver.

              I also don't see why it's morally reprehensible to run a deficit. It's just a deficit.
              "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

              Comment


              • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                Ironduke,

                I doubt the intention is to adjust representation in the House. More in keeping with current Administration ideology would be to under-count poorer people so as to reduce allocations to the social safety net. Congressional collaborators don't seem to have a problem with this, as yet.

                In other words, core GOPer values: let them starve, freezing in the dark.

                = = = = =

                GVChamp,

                I disagree with the notion of ramping up the national debt via economically useless tax cuts for the rich. Once Congress has voted to spend money on a particular program, those who disagree have two honorable options: garner the votes to overturn the decision, or resign in protest.

                Under-funding an existing mandate is the chicken-shit approach. The fix is to tax appropriately, and if you pay attention to where the money comes from, you’ll see that the big under-payers of late are corporations.

                US Federal Tax Receipts
                Percent Share received from:
                _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1960s _ _ 1970s_ _ 1980s_ _ 1990s_ _ 2000s_ _ 2010s
                Personal taxes _ _ _ _41.4% _ 46.0%_ _50.9% _ _51.2% _ _50.7% _ 51.1%
                Tax on production _ _ 39.1% _ 37.7%_ _36.6% _ _35.9% _ _36.7% _ 35.9%
                Corporate taxes _ _ _ 19.4% _ _16.2%_ _12.4% _ _12.7% _ _12.2% _ 13.0%
                Other _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _0.1% _ _0.2%_ __0.2% _ __0.3% _ _ _0.5% _ _0.0%

                And, if anyone thinks taxes on production are another corporate tax, add those to corporate taxes and you’ll discover that the share of the two combined drops by 10 percentage points over time, just as the share of personal taxes rises by . . . 10 percentage points.

                Coincidence?
                I think not.
                Cuts both ways. Being able to identify areas with higher immigrants could help better target outreach programs to those communities. The Justice Department asked for the change for VRA enforcement. If it helped stopping illegal voting, that is a good thing no matter which side of the aisle you are on.

                Comment


                • what illegal voting? and how would the Census stop this?
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                  Comment


                  • By the way what are the current betting odds on Scott Pruitt being fired or resigning?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      what illegal voting? and how would the Census stop this?
                      Nate Silver says the average impact of strict voter ID laws would be an overall decrease of about 2.4%. Some might be some minority group grandmas, but some are undoutably non-citizen voters since there are few road blocks to them voting in practice. The Census question would not really impact this. However it could help identify other problems like medicaid fraud.

                      https://oig.hhs.gov/oas/reports/region9/91602023.asp

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                        Nate Silver says the average impact of strict voter ID laws would be an overall decrease of about 2.4%. Some might be some minority group grandmas, but some are undoutably non-citizen voters since there are few road blocks to them voting in practice. The Census question would not really impact this. However it could help identify other problems like medicaid fraud.

                        https://oig.hhs.gov/oas/reports/region9/91602023.asp
                        I'll bet that non-citizen voters are outnumbered by "minority grandmas" by about 100,000 to 1. There are people in this country to whom just $5 or even $1 is a make-or-break thing, why disenfranchise them? And many races at all levels are decided by 2.4% or less, including presidential elections in a large number of states. 2.4% isn't some minor thing, it's kind of a big deal. If a party wants to win, focus on message and turnout, not thinly cloaked voter suppression. Or make ID cards absolutely free, no cost to get one, and then and only then can a state pass a voter ID law.
                        Last edited by Ironduke; 31 Mar 18,, 04:11.
                        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                          I'll bet that non-citizen voters are outnumbered by "minority grandmas" by about 100,000 to 1. There people in this country to whom just $5 or even $1 is a make-or-break thing, why disenfranchise them? And many races at all levels are decided by 2.4% or less, including presidential elections in a large number of states. 2.4% isn't some minor thing, it's kind of a big deal. If a party wants to win, focus on message and turnout, not thinly cloaked voter suppression. Or make ID cards absolutely free, no cost to get one, and then and only then can a state pass a voter ID law.
                          Of course, it isn't just the cost of the ID. Registration is free, but if you have to travel an hour or more to a place that is only open one or two days a month; and those days are week days, when you work; and you don't have easy access to a car; and public transport is limited or nonexistent; then some people will find it very difficult to register.

                          The same tricks will be played with voter ID - IDs will me made difficult to get and some places will specifically design the process to discourage demographics they don't want to vote. I think we can all work out which demographics will be the most easy to dissuade with such tactics & therefore who is most likely to employ them.
                          sigpic

                          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                            Of course, it isn't just the cost of the ID. Registration is free, but if you have to travel an hour or more to a place that is only open one or two days a month; and those days are week days, when you work; and you don't have easy access to a car; and public transport is limited or nonexistent; then some people will find it very difficult to register.

                            The same tricks will be played with voter ID - IDs will me made difficult to get and some places will specifically design the process to discourage demographics they don't want to vote. I think we can all work out which demographics will be the most easy to dissuade with such tactics & therefore who is most likely to employ them.
                            All true.
                            "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                              Nate Silver says the average impact of strict voter ID laws would be an overall decrease of about 2.4%. Some might be some minority group grandmas, but some are undoutably non-citizen voters since there are few road blocks to them voting in practice. The Census question would not really impact this. However it could help identify other problems like medicaid fraud.

                              https://oig.hhs.gov/oas/reports/region9/91602023.asp
                              Whatever happens it is going to end up in the Supreme Court as California will make sure of that with their lawsuit.

                              I wonder what exactly consitutes illegal? In a way many of my ancestors, from Ireland, are illegal. They showed up on a boat, no visa, checked through Ellis Island and then found themselves on the streets of New York City. Some became citizens and some didn't as was the case back then. I happen to have in my possession the citizenship certificate of one of my ancestors becoming a citizenship in Colorado back around the 1860s. On the other hand my great grandmother, my mother's side, never became a citizen but retained her Irish citizenship where she was born and raised. So given that then the 1900 Census had to be a very mixed bag as I am sure many were not US citizens at that time. In New York City the number had to be huge.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                                Nate Silver says the average impact of strict voter ID laws would be an overall decrease of about 2.4%. Some might be some minority group grandmas, but some are undoutably non-citizen voters since there are few road blocks to them voting in practice. The Census question would not really impact this. However it could help identify other problems like medicaid fraud.

                                https://oig.hhs.gov/oas/reports/region9/91602023.asp
                                I assume you’re referring to these fivethirtyeight.com articles:

                                The Tangled Story Behind Trump’s False Claims Of Voter Fraud (May 11, 2017)
                                https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...itizen-voters/
                                (That’s the one that totally debunks the Old Dominion research paper’s claim of 14% noncitizens registered to vote.)

                                Kris Kobach Can Prove U.S. Elections Are Messy, But That’s Not The Same Thing As Fraudulent (Sept 22, 2017)
                                https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...as-fraudulent/
                                (That’s the one where Kansasian Kris Kobach, the Godfather of Voter Suppression, is taken down several pegs for lying about illegal voting. More here: This Ohio Case Could Change Who Gets Purged From The Voter Rolls (Jan 10, 2018. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-voter-rolls/)

                                Trump’s Voter Fraud Commission Is Facing A Tough Data Challenge (Jul 7, 2017)
                                https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ata-challenge/
                                (That’s the one where they point out that KKK successfully prosecuted just nine cases – 9 – of illegal voting.)

                                Voter Fraud Is Very Rare In American Elections (Oct 17, 2016)
                                https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...can-elections/
                                (That’s the one where they drive a stake through the entire fake news surrounding illegal voting.)


                                Interesting thing about these articles, and about a dozen others I reviewed before posting this.
                                Not one mentioned 2.4%, and not one supported your "average impact of strict voter ID laws" claim.

                                I wonder why that it...
                                Trust me?
                                I'm an economist!

                                Comment

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