2018 American Political Scene

[Mihais]

Is in American interest.

[Officer of Engineers]

INF withdrawal is driven far more by China than by Russia.

Well, Trump's paper pushers are saying otherwise.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...russia/145689/

[astralis]

Is in American interest.

the col's argument is that withdrawal from INF demonstrates that Trump isn't compromised by Putin.

not a strong argument, because Russia has obviously already made the calculation that the elimination of the INF isn't that big a deal for Russian security-- otherwise they wouldn't have taken the risk of violating it in the first place.

this of course does not mean that Trump is compromised by Putin, just that the INF argument is not a strong one.

Well, Trump's paper pushers are saying otherwise.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...russia/145689/

of course pushing back against Russian violation of the INF has something to do with it, but the overwhelming focus of withdrawal is the Chinese absolute reliance on intermediate-range missiles. Trump mentioned China explictly, and so did the former PACOM Commander.

on a more strategic level, it's very clear that Trump WANTS a better relationship with the Russians because he views the Russians as important to counter terrorists and China (and just as importantly, there's a vocal component of the American right that thinks Putin is their socially-conservative savior of Christendom, lol).

to the extent that hasn't worked, it's precisely because there's the "Russia collusion thing" hanging over his head, which makes Trump pay a politically-unpalatable price anytime he does try to be friendly.

[Officer of Engineers]

to the extent that hasn't worked, it's precisely because there's the "Russia collusion thing" hanging over his head, which makes Trump pay a politically-unpalatable price anytime he does try to be friendly.

I think the "Russian collusion thing" has surpassed Putin's wildest dreams.

My eval of the available intel is that there is no collusion. Trump is not compromised by Putin. Think about it. Nobody expected Trump to get elected, not even Trump. So, why would Putin trust Trump with an intelligence operation that would risk his intel assets? There was no doubt some sort of contact as Putin explored ways to release DNC server information but Putin was not stupid enough to let the Trump camp know any of the details. Details that could expose Russian assets once the election was over as being demonstrated by Mueller right now. The reason why Mueller is going to find nothing is because he will never get the chance to interview the people who ran the operation. Ironically, those same people can exonorate Trump.

But why would Putin want to exonorate Trump? The US Presidency is being crippled by Mueller. Putin didn't planned for this but he ain't going to slow the damage being done to the US Presidency. Putin didn't expect Trump to win. He was expecting to do some damage to Clinton, to weaken her Presidency. Instead, he got a Trump Presidency mired in Mueller. More than he could have hoped for.

[Officer of Engineers]

f course pushing back against Russian violation of the INF has something to do with it, but the overwhelming focus of withdrawal is the Chinese absolute reliance on intermediate-range missiles. Trump mentioned China explictly, and so did the former PACOM Commander.

Chinese angle doesn't make sense. There are still 300+ ALCM at Deigo Garcia. I cannot see how 300+ GLCMs are going to replace that. For one thing, where are you going to stage them? South Korea and Japan are the obvious choices but you do better with SLCMs in that context.

I just cannot see how INF weapons would add to the current advantage already in place.

[TopHatter]

Fixed it for ya. I know, I know you've so surrendered in service to the Left that you think that is good collusion, but like bad collusion, its still collusion.

"Surrendered in service to the Left" Really? You think I've surrendered to the Left.

Me.

Wow...

So criticism of Donald Trump is surrendering to the Left. Got it.

Are you that far gone? Is this what drinking Trump's Kool-Aid does to someone? Seriously, what in the actual f--k is wrong with you man?

Oh yeah, take a look at that hyperlink I posted and take note of who the author was...then tell me that author was also "surrendering to the Left"

[TopHatter]

Joe, you can't have it both ways. Either Trump is a bumbling idiot or he's too smart to be compromised by Putin. I think the INF is evidence enough that he is not compromised

Not exactly sure where I said Trump is too smart to be compromised by Putin. To be clear: Putin could play Donald Trump like a fiddle at a hoedown and already has.

Donald Trump is like a small mentally-challenged child compared to Putin, especially in the international political area. Hell, even Kim and his gang have played Trump for a fool.

Trump's greatest strength is that of his father's money and the lawyers it can buy to shield him (so far, anyway) from the consequences of his actions. That makes up for a massive deficiency of ability on Trump's part.

[Officer of Engineers]

Not exactly sure where I said Trump is too smart to be compromised by Putin.

The part I was referring to is that if Trump has managed so many layers to fool Mueller, then he is more capable of not being compromised.

To be clear: Putin could play Donald Trump like a fiddle at a hoedown and already has.

Then why would Putin risk anything by giving Trump anything that could be turned against him. Putin didn't need Trump. The entire DNC Server hack and resulting leaks were a complete Russian operation with zero input from the Trump camp. If I consider the Trumps and their associates to be security leaks, why would a former Berlin spychief let them in on his game plan. And have them compromise Putin's intel assets?

Hell, even Kim and his gang have played Trump for a fool.

No, Trump has won that score. It was his threat of war that made the Chinese live up to their end of sanctions and the resulting meets. Do note, there has not been one rocket test since their meet.

[TopHatter]

The part I was referring to is that if Trump has managed so many layers to fool Mueller, then he is more capable of not being compromised.

You're making the assumption that Trump has fooled Mueller. Mueller isn't finished yet and Trump's lawyers are frightened to the bone at the mere thought of Trump talking to Mueller face to face.

Then why would Putin risk anything by giving Trump anything that could be turned against him. Putin didn't need Trump. The entire DNC Server hack and resulting leaks were a complete Russian operation with zero input from the Trump camp. If I consider the Trumps and their associates to be security leaks, why would a former Berlin spychief let them in on his game plan. And have them compromise Putin's intel assets?

I doubt that Putin did give Trump anything that could be turned against him nor let them in on his game plan. As I said, whatever collusion occurred, it likely did not involve Donald Trump showing up in person to the Kremlin for a Collusion Summit in Putin's office. Putin, as you've pointed out, is far too smart to do something that Trump and his mentally-stunted offspring could compromise.

No, Trump has won that score. It was his threat of war that made the Chinese live up to their end of sanctions and the resulting meets. Do note, there has not been one rocket test since their meet.

I'll give you that, the rocket tests have stopped. But AFAIK, the nuclear program has not been shut down. More than likely, judging by past history, North Korea is simply keeping their heads down (mostly) and biding their time. Probably a good idea now that they've been confronted with someone even more batshit crazy than their ruling dynasty.

[Officer of Engineers]

You're making the assumption that Trump has fooled Mueller. Mueller isn't finished yet and Trump's lawyers are frightened to the bone at the mere thought of Trump talking to Mueller face to face.

I'm making no such assumption. What I am stating outright is that Mueller is not going to talk to the people who ran this operation. Without them, he could neither prove nor disprove any crime has been committed ... which is exactly what Putin wants right now.

I doubt that Putin did give Trump anything that could be turned against him nor let them in on his game plan. As I said, whatever collusion occurred, it likely did not involve Donald Trump showing up in person to the Kremlin for a Collusion Summit in Putin's office. Putin, as you've pointed out, is far too smart to do something that Trump and his mentally-stunted offspring could compromise.

Again, the available intel suggests that this was a Russian operation with zero input from the Trump camp. There was contact between the two groups but the evaluation is more than likely that Putin was exploring ways to release the information. Since the Trump camp was found to be untrustworthy, they made other arrangements. Again, no one thought Trump was going to win so Putin was not going to invest in a lost cause.

Putin's goal was to damage a Clinton Presidency. Now, he has a damaged Trump Presidency and the damage is continuing. It is more than he could have hoped for. My eval is that Trump is not compromise but Putin wants that impression to continue as long as possible to do as much damage as possible. He's certainly not releasing any information about what they know about the hacker group (fake or otherwise) that broke through the DNC servers.

[TopHatter]

I'm making no such assumption. What I am stating outright is that Mueller is not going to talk to the people who ran this operation. Without them, he could neither prove nor disprove any crime has been committed ... which is exactly what Putin wants right now.

I don't believe that to be the case at all. We didn't need to talk to the KGB or the GRU to convict Ames, Hanssen, the Walker-Whitworth ring or any of the other traitors that sold themselves to the Soviets/Russians.

Again, the available intel suggests that this was a Russian operation with zero input from the Trump camp. There was contact between the two groups but the evaluation is more than likely that Putin was exploring ways to release the information. Since the Trump camp was found to be untrustworthy, they made other arrangements. Again, no one thought Trump was going to win so Putin was not going to invest in a lost cause.

Putin's goal was to damage a Clinton Presidency. Now, he has a damaged Trump Presidency and the damage is continuing. It is more than he could have hoped for. My eval is that Trump is not compromise but Putin wants that impression to continue as long as possible to do as much damage as possible. He's certainly not releasing any information about what they know about the hacker group (fake or otherwise) that broke through the DNC servers.

I actually agree with 100% of what you said above. However, you're looking at this from a Putin POV. Mueller is looking at it from a Trump POV. Thus far, we have at least one confirmed contact with a Trump family member with the Russian government for the purpose of furthering the Trump Campaign.

The bottom line, as Charles Krauthammer so adroitly put it:

"...three top Trump campaign officials were ready to play. It may turn out that they did later collaborate more fruitfully. We don’t know. But even if nothing else is found, the evidence is damning."

I'd say that's reason enough to continue digging.

[Officer of Engineers]

I don't believe that to be the case at all. We didn't need to talk to the KGB or the GRU to convict Ames, Hanssen, the Walker-Whitworth ring or any of the other traitors that sold themselves to the Soviets/Russians.

We got the people who ran those operations - them. We do not have the people who ran the DNC hack operation.

I actually agree with 100% of what you said above. However, you're looking at this from a Putin POV. Mueller is looking at it from a Trump POV. Thus far, we have at least one confirmed contact with a Trump family member with the Russian government for the purpose of furthering the Trump Campaign.

But is it a crime? Seeking information is not a crime. We do know the Russians gave the Trumps nothing.

Again, the available intel says the Russians ran this op with zero input from the Trump camp. Nothing exchanged hands. Manafort is being prosecuted on crimes committed on behalf of Clinton, not Trump. The Russians gave the Trump camp absolutely zero. They ran this operation, not the Trumps.

The bottom line, as Charles Krauthammer so adroitly put it:

"...three top Trump campaign officials were ready to play. It may turn out that they did later collaborate more fruitfully. We don’t know. But even if nothing else is found, the evidence is damning."

I'd say that's reason enough to continue digging.

And that is exactly what Putin wants even though the Russians wanted nothing to do with the Trumps.

[astralis]

col,

My eval of the available intel is that there is no collusion. Trump is not compromised by Putin. Think about it. Nobody expected Trump to get elected, not even Trump. So, why would Putin trust Trump with an intelligence operation that would risk his intel assets? There was no doubt some sort of contact as Putin explored ways to release DNC server information but Putin was not stupid enough to let the Trump camp know any of the details. Details that could expose Russian assets once the election was over as being demonstrated by Mueller right now. The reason why Mueller is going to find nothing is because he will never get the chance to interview the people who ran the operation. Ironically, those same people can exonorate Trump.

the chances that Putin actually has something that he holds over Trump to force policy outcomes is low.

but as US intel agencies have pointed out repeatedly, Putin had Russian intel assist the campaign. mostly significantly through a massive uncoordinated (with the Trump campaign) social media flood of trolls and bots, but of course also via stuff like Wikileaks and Guccifer 2.0-- which likely had some coordination with elements of, or affiliated with, the campaign.

there was enough shady sh*t going on that yeah, if Trump takes a favorable Russia stance, he better damn well pay a high political price for doing so.

But why would Putin want to exonorate Trump? The US Presidency is being crippled by Mueller. Putin didn't planned for this but he ain't going to slow the damage being done to the US Presidency. Putin didn't expect Trump to win. He was expecting to do some damage to Clinton, to weaken her Presidency. Instead, he got a Trump Presidency mired in Mueller. More than he could have hoped for.

the Presidency is certainly not being crippled by Mueller-- unless you think the President not being able to take a pro-Russia stance is crippling. moreover, the extent of Russian interference in a campaign must be fully investigated, crippled Presidency or not. Americans need to know that even wink-wink conspiring with a foreign power in elections will result in bad personal consequences.

[astralis]

joe,

I'll give you that, the rocket tests have stopped. But AFAIK, the nuclear program has not been shut down. More than likely, judging by past history, North Korea is simply keeping their heads down (mostly) and biding their time. Probably a good idea now that they've been confronted with someone even more batshit crazy than their ruling dynasty.

recall that the rocket tests went into overdrive in spring-summer 2017. the US-led pressure campaign did impose significant costs on NK, but of course did not do a single thing to end the nuclear program.

moreover the US, thanks to Trump, has stepped away from the demands that the North Koreans already consented to with the Agreed Framework, and now SK is going into overdrive to make nice to NK.

there's not really a good solution to NK, so I'm not blaming Trump for the situation not being resolved...but on the other hand, Trump is going on about how he DID single-handedly solve the NK crisis, because him and KJU are in love, lol.

[Officer of Engineers]

the chances that Putin actually has something that he holds over Trump to force policy outcomes is low.

Once I stopped looking at this from a legal POV and an intelligence-counter-intelligence POV, Putin trusting Trump with anything is a scary thought.

but as US intel agencies have pointed out repeatedly, Putin had Russian intel assist the campaign. mostly significantly through a massive uncoordinated (with the Trump campaign) social media flood of trolls and bots, but of course also via stuff like Wikileaks and Guccifer 2.0-- which likely had some coordination with elements of, or affiliated with, the campaign.

Old Dinosaurs like me would not have thought of that, on how trolls and bots can affect a campaign but I considered DNC hacks through Wikileaks and Guccifer 2.0 to be nothing more than whistle blowers. The DNC servers are NOT government servers and hence, all of their info are UNCLAS. No different than reporting a company's wrongdoing to the NYT and the WaPo.

there was enough shady sh*t going on that yeah, if Trump takes a favorable Russia stance, he better damn well pay a high political price for doing so.

Your House. Your Rules.

the Presidency is certainly not being crippled by Mueller-- unless you think the President not being able to take a pro-Russia stance is crippling. moreover, the extent of Russian interference in a campaign must be fully investigated, crippled Presidency or not.

I agree but this should now be a counter-intel op instead of legal procedure. Indicting 8 Russian Officers are going to give you squat all. You need to penetrate the Russian intel agencies to learn more.

Americans need to know that even wink-wink conspiring with a foreign power in elections will result in bad personal consequences.

With Trump? He was openly asking the Russians to show him the emails.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQb2S4DIcNc