Current Naval Power

[Dreadnought]

Submarine plan torpedoedPublished: 20/09/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

Defence Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa has rejected the navy's plan to pay 7.5 billion baht for six used submarines from Germany and questioned the cost-effectiveness and transparency.

He said yesterday a defence scrutiny committee he appointed had resolved to return the project to the navy for review. Gen Jongsak Panichkul, adviser to the defence minister, is chairing the committee, which also includes former navy chief Adm Prasert Boonsong.

"I want a review on the cost-effectiveness," Gen Yutthasak said. "The past government approved the establishment of a submarine fleet and the recruitment of personnel has been completed but transparent procurement has yet to be done."

He said he was not concerned about the Sept 30 deadline that Germany had set for the navy to confirm the purchase of its used U206A submarines. He said the German navy could be asked to extend the deadline.

"But if Germany refuses to extend the deadline, it will be up to the navy to propose submarines from any country for my consideration," the defence minister said. He is open to either new or used vessels.

A navy source said the defence scrutiny committee had recommended submarines from Russia, China and South Korea.

"The navy will let politicians make the choice," the source said. "It will just wait."

He said the German submarines were the best choice in terms of practicality for study, training and price.

Bangkok Post : Submarine plan torpedoed

[Gun Grape]

I see - Revised version would then be (using 2011, first half) -

1. USN, (11 supercarriers)
2. RN (1 carrier)

The Brits haven't any planes to fly off their Harrier Carrier. The USMC has gotten more use from their ship in the last few years than the RN has.

We cannot keep ranking them high just off "Tradition".

[Doktor]

I see - Revised version would then be (using 2011, first half) -

1. USN, (11 supercarriers) - + Kitty Hawk in reserve for 3-4 more years ;)
2. RN (1 carrier) - Which one?
3. French (1 nuclear carrier)
4. Russian (1 carrier) - 20 years old STOBAR
5. Italian (2 carriers) - both STOVL, one over 25 years in service
6. Spain (2 carriers) - Actually only one, over 20 years old, STOVL, plus Juan Carlos, which is not really a carrier, but LHD
7. Indian (1 carrier) - Same as Spain, only Viraat is 1 year older
8. Thailand (1 carrier) - STOVL, the lightest of them all (11k tons or so), same design as the Spanish carrier.
9. Brazilian (1 carrier) - 1960's French tech, refurburshing at the moment
10. Japanese
11. Chinese
12. Australian
13. South Korea - better then ze Germans?
14. Germany

I obviously gave preference to the Navies with an active carrier, and those with a "real jet" over a jump jet - exception being the Royal navy (because I think they are STILL better than most other navies).
The reason I did not think of the Brazilian navy in big terms is their carrier is not in action currently, and even in late 2011 when it comes back to action, will only feature the MD A4 skyhawks as the lead aircraft. Even the BA Harriers of the Indian Navy are better than those, and that is saying something! The Italians have the same problem, their two carriers can only field Harriers (although more advanced versions than the old Harriers of India).

Royal Navy has 0 CV in service yet it's your second choice? You condradict yourself. Korea better then Germany?

5 years from now, by 2016, however, I would think that the scenario will change significantly -

1. USN, (11 Supercarriers) + another Ford Class, making them 12.
2. French (1 nuclear carrier)
3. Indian (2 /3 carriers) - Only if Viraat remains in active service and everything is by the schedule with the orders
4. Russian (2 carriers) - Which ones?
5. Italian (2 carriers) - If Garibaldi is still around
6. Spain (2 carriers) - Spain already has only one STOVL and nothing ordered.
7. Thailand (1 carrier) - Why still ahead of the Brazilians? At least Brazil will have longer deck ;)
8. Brazilian (1 carrier)
9. Chinese (1 carrier) - Why so low? Lack of experience?
---

5 years from then, by 2021, however, I would think that the scenario will change even more -

1. USN, (11 supercarriers) - Actually 14, add Ford, JFK, plus another Ford class
2. RN (1 nuclear carrier)
3. Indian (3 carriers)
4. French (1 nuclear carrier)
5. Italian (2 carriers) - If Garibaldi still in service
6. Spain (2 carriers) - Principe de Asturias is so commissioned in 1988, you think it will be still in service?
7. Russian (2 carriers) - Which ones?
8. Chinese (2 carriers)
9. Thailand (1 carrier) - You are so stubborn putting the lightest STOVL ahead of the Brazilians ;)
10. Brazilian (1 carrier)
---

[kato]

Now, all this is purely based upon presumed status quo in terms of personnel training and other parameters and ONLY looking at equipments of the navies.

You're overestimating carriers. The Thai Royal Cruise Ship lifting them into this ranking at all? Seriously? The Chinese Navy behind a Spanish Navy that consists of ten frigates and four subs using restricted US tech that was designed 30 years ago? The RAN with its 12 frigates ahead of South Korea and Germany? I'd also push the Indian Navy a bit higher. Yes, one carrier, but its more important ASuW and ASW forces blow at least Spain and Italy out of the water.

Btw, Spain has one carrier, not two. Juan Carlos is neither combat-worthy right now nor at all able to run as an aircraft carrier without serious refitting (we're not talking having some helos lift a couple modules onboard for conversion, we're talking dock time).
And for Italy Cavour is still in sea trials and not an operational carrier.

Korea better then Germany?

Yes, though it's close.

[kato]

He said the German submarines were the best choice in terms of practicality for study, training and price.

Actually Thailand is just trying to get out of the alternative. Which would be buying Type 210mod subs from Germany as entry models for at least twice that price...

[ace009]

Thanks - My opinion is just that - "my opinion" - based upon what little internet "research" I can do - not an expert at all. Not claiming this ranking to be perfect.

On that note - what would be YOUR rankings - overall? For 2011, 2026 and 2021?

I thought that USN had decided never to have more than 11 carriers again - the Ford class will be replacing the retiring ones and not increase the number. Tell me if I am wrong. I did try to find out about the navies of four other countries - but could not find much "authentic" report to rank them ...

1. North Korea
2. Saudi Arabia
3. Iran

And Canada will probably be my 16th choice, South Africa my 17th ...

[YellowFever]

Well, Ace, you finally got me to do it.

Ranking naval or any other forces is quite dumb, in my opinion, but no one ever accused me of being smart so if I had to rank them, my list would something like this:

1) USN
2) France
3) Japan
4) UK
5) Russia
6) India
7) Chinese
8) Brazil
9) Italy
10) S. Korea

[tbm3fan]

I thought that USN had decided never to have more than 11 carriers again - the Ford class will be replacing the retiring ones and not increase the number. Tell me if I am wrong. I did try to find out about the navies of four other countries - but could not find much "authentic" report to rank them ...

According to the Navy Times there has been a discussion of having less than 11 carriers due to budget constraints. I read that the Navy has already decided to delay the start of the JFK a year or two due to money issues.

[kato]

On that note - what would be YOUR rankings - overall? For 2011, 2026 and 2021?

2011 Top30 - USN, France, UK, Russia, China, Japan, India, Italy, Brazil, Spain, South Korea, Germany, Australia, Turkey, Greece, Canada, Netherlands, Pakistan, Singapore, Indonesia, Portugal, Norway, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Argentine, Thailand, South Africa, Israel, Iran.

Gets a bit muddy in the later ranks though, since you have to start weighing numbers versus survivability in actual warfare. e.g. Norway only placed that high on technology account for running AEGIS ships, Indonesia placed that high based on hull numbers, which is important in their theater. China placed relatively high due to SSNs and SSBNs btw. Israel ahead of Iran based only on submarines.

2016 Top30 - USN, France, UK, China, Japan, Russia, India, Italy, Brazil, Spain, South Korea, Australia, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Canada, Netherlands, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Portugal, Norway, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Argentine, Thailand, South Africa, Israel, Iran.

Russia falls behind due to deteriorating state of existing equipment. Germany slips behind Australia and Turkey for temporary decommission-before-replacement plans. Pakistan falls due to no one selling to them. UK maintains position on technology account. Greece maintains position based upon EU aid. South Korea maintains position ahead of Germany with introduction of amphibious units. Later ranks stay mostly as they are.

2021 Top30 - USN, UK, France, China, India, Japan, Russia, Italy, Brazil, Spain, South Korea, Australia, Germany, Turkey, Canada, Netherlands, Singapore, Greece, Indonesia, Portugal, Pakistan, Norway, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Argentine, South Africa, Israel, Thailand, Iran.

Pure Assumptions territory. UK ahead of France with QE introduction if France doesn't realize PA2. China and India start fielding real carriers, pushing them ahead of Japan and Russia. Germany slips to an equal footing with Australia based upon planned introduction of LHDs in 2018. Russia is assumed to start fielding Mistrals, which as far as helicopter carriers go puts them on equal footing with Japan; technology state keeps them behind. Portugal bypasses Pakistan for probably fielding a large amphibious center unit by then. Thailand in freefall because it's unlikely Chakri Naruebet will be operational then. Greece in freefall due to austerity measures earlier in the decade.

[Doktor]

While Russia is falling on those list I am wondering what is happening with their subs rather then with anything else. IIRC they were subs oriented navy with lots of nukes on them.

[kato]

Yes, but the actually operational numbers deployable away from the mainland are probably somewhat in line with the sub fleets of France and the UK right now. Longterm, with ongoing deterioration you're probably looking at 6-8 Akula SSN of various subtypes remaining and 6-8 Borei SSBN newly built, with another 6-8 SSK such as Ladas for littoral functions. At least in the 2016-2021 timeframe.

[YellowFever]

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/nav...-rankings.html

A little out of date but it's rare for a professional to rank them so I thought it was worth linking...

[Dreadnought]

Actually Doc they have more then that in reserve Carriers that are as current as Kittyhawk.
Two here in Philly, JFK & Forrestal.

[Doktor]

Actually Doc they have more then that in reserve Carriers that are as current as Kittyhawk.
Two here in Philly, JFK & Forrestal.

Weren't Frestal and JFK retired while KH is still "active"?

[Dreadnought]

Weren't Frestal and JFK retired while KH is still "active"?

Yes they are at present. The JFK was the last to retire before KittyHawk which retired in 2009. JFK retired in 2007.

The USN has several carriers in retirement. Forrestal (1993) is here and several are in Bremerton Washington awaiting whatever fate may come.