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  • #16
    As much as I've learned to treat StrategyPage articles with a bit of caution, I found this interesting:

    October 12, 2007: The $1.5 billion deal that sold the unfinished Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov to India, included a Russian shipyard performing $700 million worth of repairs, modifications and upgrades. Another $800 will be spent on aircraft, weapons and equipment. The Admiral Gorshkov entered service in 1987, but was inactivated in 1996 (too expensive to operate on a post Cold War budget). The Indian deal was made in 2004, and the carrier was to be ready by 2008. But a year ago reports began coming out of Russia that the shipyard doing the work, Sevmash, had seriously miscalculated the cost of the project. The revised costs were now more like $1.1 billion. The situation has since gotten worse, with Sevmash now saying that it will cost over $2 billion to refurbish the carrier. The Indians are not happy, and expects the Russian government (which owns many of the entities involved in this deal) to make good. Given that India currently has $10 billion worth of Russian military items on order, and has been Russia's biggest, and most profitable customer for military equipment for decades, the Gorshkov is looking to be an error of gigantic proportions. The boss of Sevmash, when the Gorshkov deal was negotiated, has been fired and is under criminal investigation, on suspicion of financial mismanagement. To make matters worse, the additional work required on the Gorshkov has caused Sevmash to turn down lucrative commercial projects (like offshore oil platforms.)

    Just to add to the pressure, India is getting more interested in Western military equipment, including big ticket items like warplanes and ships. The Indians have grown tired of the poor performance of Russian equipment, and the poor service they often receive when it comes to spare parts, or fixing design errors. For decades, this was tolerated because Russian gear cost less than half what comparable Western stuff went for. Since India's major foe was Pakistan, which was equipped with equally shabby Chinese weapons, it all seemed to work out. But now many Indian generals and admirals, noting the high performance of American troops in the war on terror, are seriously considering the higher cost Western way of war.
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

    Comment


    • #17
      TopHatter, that Strategypage article is based on a report which appeared in shipbuilding.ru. I am reproducing a google translation which I had posted in BRF.

      The arrival of heads of the defense establishment Russia in Severodvinsk povolnovatsya not only led the leaders of the two largest shipyards, defense Sevmasha and "star", but also attracted keen attention of the Navy leadership of India and, of course, the Indian Naval Attache in Moscow. . And the reason is that Russia has a choice: to cede Delhi converted aircraft carrier at a price just above the freezer trawlers or terminate unprofitable contract, a Russian Navy ship to return.


      The time and place for such a conversation, not chosen by chance: FSUE "ON Sevmash" really should be a consolidation point for the North shiprepair and shipbuilding center, which is planned for the Joint Shipbuilding Corporation. But this is one reason why another situation at the Sevmashe, where construction is under way serial nuclear submarines fourth generation-in particular, the strategic missile battleships Project 955 "Bore."


      15 April this year stapelnogo shop withdrawn from the parent ship of the project, "Yuri Dolgoruky." The event was covered widely and loudly, some gun "Dolgorukogo" not only to water down, but in the military composition of credit. ... So far this ship to water-not lowered it concludes dostroechnye work ...


      The fact that even discussing the Minister of Defense and its satellites Sevmashe, you can guess for sparse press reported. At the factory completed the refurbishment of multipurpose submarines Project 971 . Here runs a large surface ship repair, atomic missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov ". But the most urgent topic is, without a doubt, the situation of the cruiser Admiral Gorshkov. "


      Under the contract, signed in New Delhi three years ago, at Sevmashe it should repair and convert into a modern aircraft carrier for the Indian Navy. And the deadline is within reach-2008. . However, in May this year, the expert group Rosproma issued a formal conclusion that the "end of the average repair TAVRK" Admiral Gorshkov "and its conversion into aircraft carrier project 11430" lacks 333.3 million dollars. ). A factory's own economists estimated, the actual cost may be 2,5 times higher than that found in the contract (unofficial reports, more than 600 million dollars).


      The Indian side for such a turn of events was not ready and reluctant to accept the price increase. However, the new CEO Sevmasha Nikolay Kalistratov in their solid arguments.


      In Severodvinsk not the first year for India repairing diesel submarines. This fall, rent Four. Displacement their know-2300 tons, the volume of our labor agreed upon with the client and is reflected in the contract price. Не . Do not open big secret when I say that one Indian boat "Star" gets about 100 million dollars, brings "base" my interlocutor. - "Now look at the" Gorshkov. "- 45 thousand tons, that is almost 20 times greater. . And work on it no easier, rather the reverse.


      And if our Indian plus flatly refuse to revise the terms of the contract, they may well invite penalty. A converted ship return in the composition of Russian military fleet.
      original russian,

      И если наши индийские визави наотрез откажутся пересматривать условия контракта, им вполне могут предложить неустойку. А переоборудованный корабль вернут в боевой состав российского флота.


      original russian article

      Could some one translate the last paragraph? I don't think Google translation is accurate.

      IN should cut her losses now and get a new carrier built by Italians and accelerate IAC construction.

      Comment


      • #18
        I have long suspected former Gorshkov's conversion would be more expensive than predicted.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by wabpilot View Post
          I have long suspected former Gorshkov's conversion would be more expensive than predicted.
          Agreed.

          I'm hardly a naval expert but when I first heard about the proposed conversion, my first reaction was "They [the Indian Navy] have got to be kidding, right? "

          I mean, seriously, we're talking about a Soviet-built and maintained ship...that's been sitting laid up (I won't called it mothballed because that would be like comparing a Yugo to a Rolls) for several years.
          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by kams View Post
            ...

            Could some one translate the last paragraph? I don't think Google translation is accurate.

            ...
            And if our Indian parters are to flatly refuse to revise the terms of the contract, they will be paid penalty under contract. And the converted ship will be returned into the Russian Navy.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Ophir View Post
              And if our Indian parters are to flatly refuse to revise the terms of the contract, they will be paid penalty under contract. And the converted ship will be returned into the Russian Navy.
              So...Sevmash blows the estimate by an order of magnitude and the Indians are the ones who get screwed?
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                So...Sevmash blows the estimate by an order of magnitude and the Indians are the ones who get screwed?
                Looks like it.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                  So...Sevmash blows the estimate by an order of magnitude and the Indians are the ones who get screwed?
                  Russia wants the ship, but will they risk India to get it? Putin just threw the gauntlet down to China over IRBM's, losing India would be a strategic, intelligence, political, and economic disaster disaster for them.

                  Economic- 10 Billion in pending contracts, several major Indian systems/needs coming up for bids

                  Intelligence- India is most likely a backdoor for the FSIB to get its hands on Israel's newest technology.

                  Political- Without Russia, India has to forge closer ties with the US to offset China-Pakistan

                  Strategic- Without India Russia has no access to the India ocean or the East Coast of Africa meaning Europe will always have a safe even if long energy route from the Persian Gulf even if the Med is closed. Russia also loses the ability to threaten China or Japans energy shipments.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Revamping a ship is no easy task. I personally agreed to oversee a major revamp hull, steel, machinery, systems of a OSV in 2001. The company that hired me said it's a 3 week job. The Yard that bidded for it said it will take roughly 2 million USD. When i landed there, the reality was different. It's easy to strip a ship, tougher to rebuild a stripped ship of all it's machinery, wiring. Matters came to a boil where the the cost escalated to double and time frames escalated by unknown margins. But since i represented the party to the original contract i was duty bound to push the Yard. This matter went up to the CM level in the state, because the Yard went bankrupt on the ship i was revamping. It saddened me a lot as the Yard stopped giving salaries to hardworking people. They just did'nt have money.

                    I can see a similar problem with Gorshkov. Major systems can be fitted. Wiring is data transfer. I hope they use some energetic new tech in RFID for mass data transfer than trying reconfiguring wiring. I am sure India can help the Russians there a bit technologically to get the costs down. Transferring data and signals from point to point on through steel decks withour wiring is a big deal till today. Changing steel plates is one thing. Maintaining required system integrity requires connectivity. A ship can be a very confusing place if you don't know whats up.

                    Also it was not just rewiring a chaotic ship. One must go into the tanks, machinery spaces, all through the stripped up accomodation to realize that the number of specialists required for each particular job, and integrating them to an objective is no mean task. Changing steel below twin screwed engines misaligned the shafting. Aligning that shafting requires specialized expertize. If they certify to my satisfaction that the shafting is not Ok, i have to sign a statement that the yard according to contract so and so will have to ensure shafting specs according to as admistered by the specialist. Thats extra money, extra time. I do my job, so do the Russians i am certain. But the problem is here. Raising up old ships from the dead to more vitalized roles requires revamping some technology features.

                    This must be painful for the Russians i am sure. But once committed to such a deal they have responsibilites. India too must realize the excess on the Russian budget and offer at least technological expertise in the area where needed.
                    Last edited by dilawar; 15 Oct 07,, 01:21.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by zraver View Post
                      Political- Without Russia, India has to forge closer ties with the US to offset China-Pakistan
                      I don't think China-Pakistan is a major issue to offset anymore, although it was in the 60s and 70s when Indian and Pakistani forces were more or less matched and India needed the Soviets to keep China off India's back (like in '65) or to keep America off its back (like '71). Now there is much disparity between the two forces and Pakistan just fits into the bigger Chinese equation.

                      Strategic- Without India Russia has no access to the India ocean or the East Coast of Africa meaning Europe will always have a safe even if long energy route from the Persian Gulf even if the Med is closed. Russia also loses the ability to threaten China or Japans energy shipments.
                      zrav, I don't believe that Russia will be able to threaten China's or Japan's energy shipments. Hard to close off any international routes without a major lashback from the international community, or in this case, the USN.
                      Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                      -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by zraver View Post
                        Russia wants the ship, but will they risk India to get it? Putin just threw the gauntlet down to China over IRBM's, losing India would be a strategic, intelligence, political, and economic disaster disaster for them.
                        C'mon, Russia doesn't want Gorshkov -- it's just a nice spot of blackmail.


                        Originally posted by zraver View Post
                        Intelligence- India is most likely a backdoor for the FSIB to get its hands on Israel's newest technology.
                        I'd say it's pretty unlikely. One never knows, though.


                        Originally posted by zraver View Post
                        Strategic- Without India Russia has no access to the India ocean or the East Coast of Africa meaning Europe will always have a safe even if long energy route from the Persian Gulf even if the Med is closed. Russia also loses the ability to threaten China or Japans energy shipments.
                        With all due respect, our leadership is sane and is not into embarking upon conquests with eyes swivelling. We have no basing rights in India, hadn't them in times of the USSR, too. As for China -- we ourselves supply it with energy. :)

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Tronic View Post
                          ...

                          zrav, I don't believe that Russia will be able to threaten China's or Japan's energy shipments. Hard to close off any international routes without a major lashback from the international community, or in this case, the USN.
                          Quite so -- were anyone to do something that bad in the Indian Ocean, the US Navy would send those ships towards the bottom to do some deep-water exploration...

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Ophir View Post
                            Quite so -- were anyone to do something that bad in the Indian Ocean, the US Navy would send those ships towards the bottom to do some deep-water exploration...
                            Even with "Shipwrecks"...

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Commentary: Will the USS Kitty Hawk cement U.S.-India military ties?
                              MANIPAL, India, Nov. 28
                              M.D. NALAPAT



                              Column: Future Present
                              Thanks largely to India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who shared with his leftwing British friends a dislike of the Yanks, the geopolitically senseless alienation between the United States and India continued for five decades after India's independence in 1947.

                              What seems finally to have convinced the British to leave India was the seepage of loyalty from the Indian component of the armed forces. More than 2 million Indians saw action on the Allied side during World War II. Yet during the war, their loyalty to the Crown was tested by the discriminatory treatment meted out to Indians in the services. British personnel dominated the higher reaches of the military and were given perquisites and privileges far beyond those enjoyed by Indians.

                              Several thousands of soldiers joined the pro-Axis Indian National Army during the war. Within the ranks of those who remained on the Allied side, there was visible sympathy for those Indian officers and men who switched sides and refused to fight for the British monarchy that denied them the privileges enjoyed by soldiers from the Australian, New Zealand, U.S. and Canadian complements. The possibility of widespread revolts within the armed forces concentrated minds in London and speeded up the withdrawal from India

                              During World War II, the Muslim League under M. A. Jinnah backed the Allies unreservedly, and was later rewarded with Pakistan, a Muslim state carved out of Hindu-majority India. Jinnah's effusive backing for the British was matched by his successors' similarly emollient line toward the United States. As a result, Washington joined London in regarding Pakistan as a reliable ally, in contrast to the "undependable" Indians -- a tilt that continued until 9/11.

                              Even as late as the 1990s, the U.S. was pressuring India to surrender the Kashmir valley to Pakistan. At the same time the Clinton administration was covertly backing the jihadi elements that finally took power in Kabul in 1996 as the Taliban. Interestingly, as yet the U.S. Congress has not opened an enquiry into the 1994-96 policies that resulted in Osama bin Laden's patrons being given charge of Afghanistan, with consequences that have been disastrous for international security.

                              Relentless U.S. and British pressure since the 1950s on the Kashmir issue, and lavish military and civilian help given to Pakistan, caused New Delhi to gravitate toward the Soviet Union. Even in its 1971-1977 heyday, however, the strategic relationship between New Delhi and Moscow never resulted in a single Soviet soldier coming to India for basing or training.

                              Nowadays the U.S. military routinely undertakes joint exercises and training sorties in India. Fear of international jihad and worries over a fast-developing Chinese military have made the United States and India de facto military allies.

                              However, within both countries strong lobbies are still at work to abort this alliance. Within the United States these anti-India groups have coalesced around two poles. The first comprises those who take a Euro-centric view of the world, seeing it in terms of the West and the Rest. Such individuals see little value in a full-fledged alliance with India that might divert focus from NATO. According to this school, the only core international partners of value to the United States in worldwide conflicts are the other NATO countries.

                              The other lobby hard at work within the United States to sabotage the India-U.S. military alliance comprises backers of the Pakistan army. Recent efforts by officers who seek to forge a comprehensive military relationship with India to offer the USS Kitty Hawk carrier to the Indian Navy -- as the USS Trenton was a few years ago -- seem to have foundered on opposition from pro-Pakistan and NATO-centric elements in the U.S. military. They see the move as potentially alienating the Pakistan military.

                              Such a transfer would link the United States and India in a military supply relationship that could lead to the displacement of Russia as the primary supplier to India of defense equipment. Yet both the NATO and Pakistan lobbies within the U.S. military are working overtime to scuttle the plan to offer the USS Kitty Hawk to the Indians.

                              Within India too there has been resistance to the induction of the USS Kitty Hawk. It comes from the segment within the Indian Navy that is in favor of Russian or French platforms, both being lucrative sources of patronage. Their efforts at downplaying the force multiplier effect of the U.S. carrier focus on its "obsolete" catapult technology and the expenses involved in a refit.

                              That their primary interest is to prevent a reversal of the Indian decision to induct the Russian carrier Gorshkov (now estimated to cost US$1.6 billion in place of the $500 million quoted earlier) is clear from the primary argument used against the U.S. naval vessel, which is the age of the four-decade-old ship. However, unlike the Gorshkov, which is unable to sail at all, the U.S. vessel is operational, and was recently in the news for its attempt to dock in Hong Kong over the Thanksgiving weekend.

                              The fear among those within the Indian defense establishment with financial ties to Russian and French defense suppliers is that acquisition of the USS Kitty Hawk would result in New Delhi purchasing U.S. aircraft for the carrier, and later for the air force, in place of Russian ones. As such purchases could amount to US$22 billion over the next five years, the stakes are substantial even in purely financial terms.

                              Eager to get India to pay an extra US$1.4 billion for the Russian carrier, the pro-Russia lobby in India has ignored the fact that the modified Kiev class aviation cruiser was earlier mothballed due to a collapse of its propulsion systems. After nearly $500 million was paid toward a refit by India, it has been pulled out for a very expensive refurbishment and rechristened the INS Vikramaditya. The effectiveness of the multidimensional firepower it could unleash after such a $1.9 billion refit is yet to be tested.

                              The French and Russian lobbies were alerted by the Indian Navy's procurement of the former USS Trenton LPD-14. This ship, rechristened the INS Jalashwa in 2006, has a long record of operational performance with the U.S. Navy's carrier and amphibious groups. The Indian Navy's amphibious expeditionary capabilities have been significantly enhanced with the Jalashwa, the induction of which has helped familiarize naval personnel with U.S. systems.

                              The Indian Navy will add at least another 45 vessels in the next decade to maintain a 140-ship navy for operations. The focus is to reinforce sea control and sea denial capability that spans the Persian Gulf to the China Seas. The induction of the USS Kitty Hawk could be the trigger for the switchover from Russian-French to U.S. platforms in first the navy and later the air force and the army.

                              Indeed, the Kitty Hawk was the lead carrier along with the USS Nimitz CVN 68 in the recently concluded Malabar 07-02 in the Bay of Bengal, which significantly enhanced interoperability between U.S. and Indian forces. If it beats back hostile lobbies in both the U.S. and India and is rescued from oblivion by joining the expanding Indian Navy, the USS Kitty Hawk may serve as a force multiplier in the U.S.-India defense relationship.

                              --

                              (Professor M.D. Nalapat is vice-chair of the Manipal Advanced Research Group, UNESCO Peace Chair, and professor of geopolitics at Manipal University. ©Copyright M.D. Nalapat.)

                              UPI Asia Online - Security - Commentary: Will the USS Kitty Hawk cement U.S.-India military ties?

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Not gonna happen...
                                I think India is going for MiG-29Ks and isn't the Kitty Hawk like real old...
                                Believe me, India can get some better stuff than that....

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